Taiwanese democracy
Dec 2nd 2010 | TAIPEI | from PRINT EDITION
WHAT does Taiwan think of its big brother across the strait? More than 7.5m voters turned out on November 27th, 70% of those eligible, to elect mayors and city councillors in five urban districts, in what is seen as a broad assessment of the president, Ma Ying-jeou. Mr Ma himself has become a surrogate for feelings about the mainland, having forged groundbreaking business links, including a partial free-trade pact, in the biggest rearrangement of relations with China proper since 1949.
Mr Ma passed the test, but only just. Although his Kuomintang party (KMT) ended up winning three of the five mayoralties, it failed to win a majority of the votes. Instead, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has leant towards fuller independence for Taiwan, won nearly 50% of all votes to the KMT's 45%. Had this been a presidential poll, Mr Ma would be in trouble. Since he was elected two years ago his party's share of the vote has fallen by perhaps 8%. For the first time, the DPP drew even with the KMT in the city councils.
The election saw most of the staples of Taiwanese elections, including rowdy campaign trucks and flag-waving mass rallies with skimpily clad dancing girls. It even saw the obligatory mysterious assassination attempt. Sean Lien, son of Lien Chan, the KMT's honorary chairman, was stumping for a KMT candidate on the eve of the election. A man from the crowd shot the young Mr Lien clean through the face, wounding him and killing a bystander. Bizarrely, it has not been determined whether the gunman intended to harm Mr Lien or to settle a dispute with the candidate. Either way, says Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the DPP, the shooting affected the election, casting suspicion on the DPP and driving voters towards the KMT.
Perhaps the only big winner from the campaign was China. It was striking how the issue of the mainland itself was absent. Instead candidates jousted over plans for public housing and job creation. Taiwan usually enjoys its de facto independence and loathes China's military threat. So, the KMT tends to avoid parading its ties to the government in Beijing. But this time the DPP also refrained from whipping up anti-China sentiment. It is responding to a new awareness that Chinese business is essential to Taiwan's economic survival.
Mr Ma, for his part, claimed confirmation that his China policy is acceptable to the Taiwanese majority. The government in Beijing can be expected to continue supplying commercial sweeteners, in line with its strategy for luring Taiwan back to the fold. China wasted no time sending a negotiator to Taipei to arrange for a summit on investment protection and medical co-operation. Certainly, it would like to see political integration too, but first things first. Better to wait till after the 2012 presidential election for that.
The DPP has anyway reinvented itself. Two years ago it was at a low point: its former leader, Chen Shui-bian, had been sent to jail on charges of corruption. President in 2000-08, he was a firebrand for explicit independence. But under the leadership of Ms Tsai, a new generation of moderates has emerged and the DPP is working hard to attract professionals and youths. Ms Tsai has been hailed as a DPP candidate for the presidency, as has Su Tseng-chang, who served under Mr Chen.
Their party is now doing its best to show that it too can engage with Beijing. Ms Tsai announced plans for a think-tank to act as a point of contact between the DPP and China, provided their talks can be held without preconditions. Ms Tsai tells the Taiwanese public that her party presents a "trustworthy alternative" to Mr Ma's hasty approach to China.
Mr Chen seems infuriated by the shift. In a statement issued from his cell he said that the DPP's candidates would have fared better if they had insisted that Taiwan is a separate country. He even ordered Mr Su, a pragmatist, not to run for the presidency. Even without Mr Chen's interference, the DPP will struggle to choose between its potential candidates.
The KMT is due for soul-searching of its own. Mr Ma's ratings have been poor, despite breakneck economic growth; KMT candidates have not wanted to campaign with him. His unpopularity seems to be owing largely to unemployment and the widening gap between rich and poor. A KMT spokesman says it will reshuffle its cabinet as well as its local branches.
The DPP's strong showing suggests that Taiwan's support for rapprochement is limited. At the same time most Taiwanese see the economic integration with China as inevitable. According to Antonio Chiang, a prominent columnist, "the point of no return has already passed."
from PRINT EDITION | Asia
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