2010年6月30日

Leon Levinstein's New York

Leon Levinstein's New York
雷欧•莱文斯坦镜头里的纽约

Cheap perfume and fried chicken
廉价香水与炸鸡块


A new show of photographs should help to revive a forgotten name
一场新近的影展将使人们重新记起那枚遗失在岁月里的名字


Jun 17th 2010


AMID the fussy grandeur of the Metropolitan Museum of Art sits an unexpected show of photographs. "Hipsters, Hustlers, and Handball Players" is a collection of Leon Levinstein's black-and-white pictures of New York City from 1950 to 1980. They are raw and energetic, with rubbish-strewn streets, stooped old men, fat painted ladies and posturing youths in tight jeans. One photograph features a woman in a white party dress curled up on the beach, asleep and mysterious. Another sees two handball players snapped from behind, aloft and balletic.
富丽堂皇的大都会艺术博物馆正在筹办一场出人意料的摄影秀----名为"潮人、妓女和手球运动员"的藏品展是雷欧•莱文斯坦于1950至1980年间拍摄的、一组以纽约为主题的黑白照片。这组照片朴实无华,却也充满活力----在垃圾遍地的街道里,有身形佝偻�沮沮独行的老人;有浓妆艳抹、盛装打扮的胖女人;还有身着紧身夹克�搔手弄资的年轻人。其中一幅照片刻画了一位身着白礼服、在沙滩上蜷曲而眠的神秘女子;而另一幅则从背面捕捉到两名手球运动员弹跳的身影,颇有点跳芭蕾的架势。

These 44 images chronicle life as it is lived in the city: kinetic and rough, with little beauty but plenty of pride. Levinstein, who died in 1988, often shot his subjects up close and at odd angles. The result is often unflattering but affectionate, full of the small pleasures of the day-to-day. The gallery seems fragrant with cigarette smoke, cheap perfume and fried chicken.
这44幅照片按年代顺序记载着纽约市里真实而特有的生活场景:它活力四射却放荡不羁,缺乏美感却自命不凡。于1988年辞世的莱文斯坦常常用相机,以独特的视角近距离捕捉画面。这种摄影手法一方面使照片显得突兀直接,另一方面又使照片里充斥着日常中琐碎的趣事,流露出对生活的爱意。于是乎,仿佛有一缕缕混合了烟草、廉价香水以及炸鸡味的芳香萦绕于整个展览厅内。

Levinstein is a photographer's photographer. Beyond a core of devotees, his name rings few bells. He earned attention in the 1950s when Edward Steichen, as head of the photography department at the Museum of Modern Art, included him in a few shows alongside such peers as Diane Arbus and Robert Frank. But then he fell off the map.
莱文斯坦的作品为摄影师所欣赏,可他的名号在圈外却不响亮。不过上世纪50十年代,当时的现代艺术博物馆摄影分馆的负责人----爱德华•斯泰肯曾将他的作品与当时的大师级人物----黛安・阿勃丝 、罗伯特.弗兰克的,一同在几场摄影秀中展出,这倒为为莱文斯坦赢得了一点名气,但那之后他很快急流勇退,被人遗忘。

This could be because he stuck to a career in advertising, taking photographs (thousands in all, over several decades) only in his spare time. Or maybe it was because he was an unpretentious loner. He gruffly complained that being a street photographer meant that "you're always on the outside". Yet he seemed unwilling to have it any other way.
个中缘故,也许是源于他对广告事业孜孜不倦的追求,故而只能在业余时间拍摄照片(几十年间共拍摄了数千幅作品);又或许是他本身就是一位谦虚的宅男----他曾毫不避讳的抱怨过:成为街头摄影师就意味着"不断地外出"。然而,他似乎也没想过另辟蹊径

The photographs are now part of the Met's permanent collection, thanks to a big recent gift from a collector named Gary Davis. Jeff Rosenheim, the show's curator, hopes this new trove, which is on show until October 17th, will revive Levinstein's place among 20th-century photographers. The man himself may not have cared for such attention, but his work demands it.

现在,多亏了收藏家加里-戴维斯的捐赠,这些照片已成为大都会艺术博物馆的永久藏品。主办人杰夫•罗森海姆则希望这些稀世珍品能借由将于10月17日开始的摄影展,为雷欧•莱文斯坦在20世纪的摄影界找回一席之地----他本人可能对此不屑一顾,可他的作品却实至名归,理应重视。

谢谢yannanchen老师、插一嘴编审的提醒(*^__^*) 



这幅应该是第一段里那个像芭蕾舞的照片,但是在沙滩上睡觉的女人我没办法复制�

The effects of the internet网络对大脑的影响

The effects of the internet
网络对大脑的影响

Fast forward
快速前进


Fear of a fried future
只怕未来太焦急


Jun 24th 2010




Fried brains is a delicacy in France
煎脑汉堡是法国一道美餐

The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains.By Nicholas Carr. Norton; 276 pages; $26.95. Published in Britain by Atlantic in September as "The Shallows: How the Internet is Changing the Way We Think, Read and Remember"; £17.99.Buy from Amazon.com

《空洞:网络给大脑带来的》 尼古拉斯・卡尔著  美国 诺顿出版社  276页  26.95美元; ( 英国 大西洋出版社 《空洞:网络改变了人们思考、阅读和记忆的方式》,17.99英镑。)

IN 1492, the same year that Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic, a Benedictine abbot named Trithemius, living in western Germany, wrote a spirited defence of scribes who tried to impress God's word most firmly on their minds by copying out texts by hand. To disseminate his own books, though, Trithemius used the revolutionary technology of the day, the printing press. Nicholas Carr, an American commentator on the digital revolution, faces a similar dichotomy. A blogger and card-carrying member of the "digerati", he is worried enough about the internet to raise the alarm about its dangers to human thought and creativity.

1492年,就在克里斯托佛・哥伦布穿过大西洋的同一天,西德一位名叫特里特米乌斯的本笃会修道士写了一本书,英勇地称赞了为记忆上帝教义而抄写经书的人们,然而为了传播他自己的书籍,他使用了当时具有革命特性的技术――印刷机。如今这位美国人尼古拉斯・卡尔对于数字革命的评论,有着与特里特米乌斯一样的矛盾。作为一名博客写手,一名正式的"数字文人",他却非常担心网络对人类思想和创造力的伤害。

The recent uproar over privacy on Facebook is only the latest backlash against man's newly wired existence. Mr Carr did his bit to encourage the anxiety in 2008 with an essay in the Atlantic entitled "Is Google Making Us Stupid?" His new book is an expanded survey of the science and history of human cognition. Worry of this kind is not new: a decade ago, the first evidence suggested that PowerPoint changed not just how executives presented information, but also how they thought. Mr Carr's contribution is to offer the most readable overview of the science to date. It is clearly not intended as a jeremiad. Yet halfway through, he can't quite help but blurt out that the impact of this browsing on our brains is "even more disturbing" than he thought.

最近对于Facebook网站个人隐私的激烈论争,只是人类开始网络之路之来最近的一场反思。2008年,卡尔在《大西洋》杂志上发表了题为《谷歌是否让我们变笨》的文章,引起网民的忧虑。而他的新作是对于人类认知科学和历史的深度调查。这类但心并不新鲜,十年前,就是最初证据表明幻灯片的使用不仅改变了主管人员展示信息的方式,更改变了他们的思考方式。卡尔本书提供了最具可读性的当今科学概观。很明显他本意并不想这样悲观,可是写着写着,他难以控制,冲口说道,浏览网络对于大脑的影响甚至比他所料想的还要麻烦。

Humans like to believe they control the tools they use, even if Socrates, Marshall McLuhan and Ivan Illich are among those who have argued that often they do not. From the alphabet to clocks and printing, every major new technology has profoundly altered the way in which humans think. The digital gadgets on which we now depend, Mr Carr explains, have already begun rewiring our brains.

人类乐于相信他们能控制所用的工具,就算像苏格拉底、马歇尔・麦克卢汉和伊凡・伊里奇这些清醒的智者在不停地争论他们经常不能控制所用的工具。从字母表,到钟表和印刷,每一项新的技术都深刻地改变了人类思考的方式。卡尔解释说,如今我们所依赖的数字玩意儿已经开始重组人类的大脑了。

Neurological research has demolished the myth of the static brain. Neural networks can be rapidly reorganised in response to new experiences such as going on the web. Mr Carr surveys current knowledge about the effects on thinking of "hypermedia"―in particular clicking, skipping, skimming―and especially on working and deep memory. He draws some chilling inferences. There is evidence, he says, that digital technology is already damaging the long-term memory consolidation that is the basis for true intelligence.

脑神经学的研究早已打破了静态脑的神话,神经网络对于上网等新体验能迅速重组作出反应,卡尔深度调查了最新的知识,总结关于超媒体(点击、浏览以及选择)对于思考力的影响,尤其是对于工作和深度记忆的影响。他得到了一些不好的推论,比如,有证据表明数字科技已经在损坏人类长期记忆巩固功能,而长期记忆的巩固正是智慧的基础。

Only by combining data stored deep within our brains can we forge new ideas. No amount of magpie assemblage can compensate for this slow, synthetic creativity. Hyperlinks and overstimulation mean the brain must give most of its attention to short-term decisions. Little makes it through the fragile transfer into deeper processing. Clearly, argues Mr Carr, this is a radical upending of the "literate mind" that has been the hallmark of civilisation for more than 1,000 years. From a society that valued the creation of a unique storehouse of ideas in each individual, man is moving to a socially constructed mind that values speed and group approval over originality and creativity.

人类创新的基础是储存在大脑深处的信息想碰撞融合的结果,如果不是人脑中的反应,不管有多么巨量的信息汇合在一处都不能成就这缓慢、综合的创新。超链接和过度刺激导致大脑必须空出大量的注意力来做出短期决定。只有非常少的信息能够进入大脑深处。卡尔写道,这样很明显颠覆了对上千年来被视为文明标志的"有文化的头脑"。人类社会正从一个重视个体创造力组成的独特社会,变成了重视速度和群体认同而忽视创意和新事物的社会头脑。

True, there are compensations: better hand-eye co-ordination, pattern recognition and the very multitasking skills the machines themselves require. Sceptics will rightly point out that similar concerns have accompanied each new technology. Something is always lost, and something gained. Some evolutionary biologists claim that the scholarly mind is an historical anomaly: that humans, like other primates, are designed to scan rapidly for danger and opportunity. If so, the net delivers this shallow, scattered mindset with a vengeance.

当然网络也带来了一点乐观的东西,比如更好的手眼协调能力、更好模式识别能力,以及更好的电脑所需要的一心多用能力。怀疑本书作者的人也自然会争论道,这一类担心与任何新技术相伴而来,新事物都是有利有弊的。有些进化生物学家声称学究气的头脑是历史变异产生的,人类和其它灵长类动物天生具有快速浏览确定危机与机遇的能力。如果真是这样的话,网络却在报复这肤浅、分散的头脑。

Mr Carr offers few prescriptions. The author himself retreated to an (unplugged) mountain hideout to write his book, but he thinks most people depend too much on the net for work and fun to do the same. And he fails to address the ways in which the internet acts like a drug. Other critics have probed this issue more deeply, notably Jaron Lanier, a virtual-reality pioneer, in a recent book, "You Are Not a Gadget". Yet surely online bingeing is no different from eating too many sweets: its remedy is a matter of old-fashioned self-restraint.

作者对于避害之术提得不多,虽然他本人是撤到不能上网的深山里写的本书,可是他也承认大多数人都太依赖网络来辅佐工作,来娱乐,要他们到不能上网的深山去恐怕不行。他也没将网络与毒品进行比较。有些人对这一议题研究得更深,比如虚拟世界的倡导者杰伦・拉尼尔的新书《你不是机器》。当然上网太长时间和吃太多糖一样,要治疗也许只有传统的"自觉控制"。

2010年6月29日

Something doesn't fit

Buttonwood
Something doesn't fit
有些不对劲

Why are both Treasury bonds and gold performing so well?
为什么国债和黄金双双走好?

Jun 17th 2010



"ALICE laughed: 'There's no use trying,' she said; 'one can't believe impossible things.' 'I daresay you haven't had much practice,' said the Queen. 'When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.'"
"爱丽丝笑道:'不用试啦,没用的。人总不能相信不可能的事吧。''我敢说你还没多次练习吧,'皇后说道,我在你这么大时,我总是每天为此花上半个小时,为什么?有时,就早饭前的这一会我已经相信六件不可能的事了!"(爱丽丝仙境奇遇记台词)

Occasionally investors can believe impossible things, as they did when dotcom stocks with no profits were valued at more than flourishing multinationals. But they can also believe in incompatible things, which is even more striking.
偶尔,投资者也会异想天开,譬如当年,投资者便相信了那些毫无利润可言,而且每股定价高于蓬勃发展的跨国公司的网络股。更有甚者,他们甚至相信水火可以兼容,这让人更为咋舌。

Take the recent surge in the gold price to a nominal record of $1,251.20 an ounce. Owning gold is traditionally seen as offering protection against inflation. And inflation is very bad news for owners of government bonds. But the ten-year Treasury bond yields just 3.3%, a level that is towards the low end of the historical range.
以黄金价格为例。最近黄金价格飙升至1,251.20每盎司的的名义价,创下新高。传统而言,持有黄金可以抵御通胀。而通胀对于政府债券所有者来说无异于噩耗。但是目前,10年期的国债收益仅为3.3%,接近历史最低水平。

There is something remarkable about this combination. You would expect the performance of gold and Treasury bonds to be inversely correlated. When gold was at its real all-time high in 1980, the ten-year Treasury-bond yield was 10.8%. Fixed-income investors had suffered years of negative real returns in the 1970s.
低债券收益高黄金价同时出现有其异常之处。黄金和债券的表现一般认为是负相关的(译者注:高金价一般是伴随着高债券收益的,因为金价高意味着投资者不愿意去买国债,因此政府不得不承诺更高的债券收益率来吸引投资者,这会方便大家理解下文。)。在1980年,黄金价格处于最高水平时,10年国债收益率为10.8%。七十年代,固定收益投资者获得的实际回报长年为负。

Adding other assets to the mix does not solve the dilemma. David Ranson of Wainwright Economics, a consultancy, has examined how gold and corporate-bond spreads have worked as a guide to asset allocation since 1978. The gold price is an indicator of inflationary pressures. Bond spreads are an indicator of growth: investors are happy to take the risk of owning corporate bonds, and spreads come down, when the economy, and thus business revenues, are strengthening. Over the year to end-May gold was up by 25% while corporate-bond spreads narrowed sharply. History suggests that such a combination should be bad news for government bonds.
通过向产品组合中加入其它资产并不能纾困。咨询机构Wainwright Economics的David Ranson研究了自1978以来黄金和企业债券利差对资产分配的指导作用。黄金价成为通胀压力的风向标,而企业债券利差则指向增长:当经济向好,由此引发企业收入上升时,投资者乐于冒风险持有企业债券,此时利差下降。截止今年五月底,金价上涨25%而企业债券利差大幅收紧。历史暗示我们此等情况同时出现对于政府债券来说极为不妙。

So what explains the current situation? Both gold and Treasury bonds could be classed as "safe haven" assets that investors buy when they are risk-averse. But if not inflation, safe havens against what? Investors did buy gold in 2007 and 2008 when they were worried about the health of the banking system. Some thought that physical gold would be a lot safer than a deposit in an insolvent bank.
那么,如何解释当前的状况?黄金和国债都可以划分为"避难"资产,即投资者不愿冒险时将其买入。但是,一旦没有通胀,那这些资产用来避什么难呢?的确,2007年和2008年,投资者由于担心银行体系的的安危,买入了黄金。有些人认为持有货真价实的黄金远比把钱存在破产的
银行里强。

In recent weeks there has been a rise in both LIBOR (a gauge of banks' borrowing costs) and the credit-default-swap spreads on bank bonds (the cost of insuring against default risk). But in neither case are things as bad as they were in the autumn of 2008, when Lehman fell and no bank seemed safe. Gold was only around $900 an ounce during that burst of risk aversion.
最近几周,LIBOR指数(银行借入成本的指标)银行债权的CDS(信用违约互换)利差(为抵御破产风险所支付的成本)都有所上涨。但是两者的情况都比08年秋季时更有起色。当时雷曼倒下,各大银行岌岌可危。即便规避风险的情绪汹涌,当时的金价也不过900美元一盎司。

Of course, safety is relative. The finances of Germany and America look better than those of Greece or Spain. Some say banks have been demanding German bonds as collateral for financing and refusing to accept the bonds of other euro-zone countries. This could be holding down the yields of the most liquid markets.
当然,安全也只是相对的。德国和美国的金融状况要强过希腊和西班牙。有人称银行已经要求以德国债券作为融资担保,拒绝接受其它欧元区国家的债券。此举将抑制多数流动市场的收益。

But that raises a related point that investors seem to be overlooking. Many people argue that Britain and America, for example, are in a better position than euro-zone members like Greece because they can depreciate their currencies. That may be good news for the governments concerned but it is bad news for investors. It does not take much depreciation to wipe out an annual yield of 3-4% a year. For hedge funds and other investors which will not be holding bonds to maturity, currency movements may determine their return. They ought to demand extra yield as compensation for the risk.
但是这也引发了一个投资者似乎忽视了的相关问题。例如许多人认为英国和美国之所以比欧元区成员例如希腊的处境要好是因为这两国贬值了各自的货币。这一消息对于相关的国家是利好,但是对于投资者来说则是噩耗。因为不消贬值多少,3-4%的年收益便可化为乌有。这主要是因为对冲基金和其它投资者不会持有债券一直到期,因此货币波动决定了他们的回报。所以,他们需要寻求额外的收益来作为这一风险的补偿。

Then again, private investors may not be setting the price. Government-bond yields are being held artificially low by central-bank actions. In some cases (the European Central Bank or the Bank of England) this is because of direct purchases of bonds. In others it may be because central banks have rigged the yield curve, holding short-term rates artificially low and inducing banks to make money by buying longer-dated government bonds. A third factor is that Asian central banks are big buyers of Treasury bonds as part of their exchange-rate management policies, and are relatively indifferent to future returns.
然后回过头来看,私人投资者不大可能决定价格。政府债券的收益通过央行的作用被人为地保持在低水平。而在有些情况下(譬如欧洲央行和英格兰银行),低收益又可以归咎于债券可以直接购买。还有其他一些情况,可能是因为央行操纵了收益曲线,人为地将短期利率控制在低位,吸引银行去购买长期国债以获利。第三个因素则是亚洲的央行作为国债的大买家,这是它们汇率管理政策的一部分,它们相对而言不关心未来的回报。

Perhaps the explanation is simpler. Martin Barnes of Bank Credit Analyst, a research firm, points out that the direction of official policy (low rates, quantitative easing, big deficits) looks inflationary but the economic fundamentals (a big output gap, sluggish credit growth) look deflationary. Faced with this dichotomy, investors who buy both Treasury bonds and gold are not displaying cognitive dissonance. They are just hedging their bets.
可能最终的答案没那么深奥。研究公司Bank Credit Analyst的Martin Barnes指出,官方政策的指导(低利率,量化宽松,大规模赤字)看起来似乎引发通胀,但是经济的基本面(大规模的产出缺口,缓慢的信贷增长)又似乎会引发紧缩。面对此等对立情况,同时购买国债和黄金投资者并不是表现出认知失调,他们只是在对冲自己的赌注罢了。

Too many chiefs

Schumpeter
熊彼特

Too many chiefs
首席官泛滥

Inflation in job titles is approaching Weimar levels
职衔的膨胀正在接近魏玛时代

Jun 24th 2010



KIM JONG IL, the North Korean dictator, is not normally a trendsetter. But in one area he is clearly leading the pack: job-title inflation. Mr Kim has 1,200 official titles, including, roughly translated, guardian deity of the planet, ever-victorious general, lodestar of the 21st century, supreme commander at the forefront of the struggle against imperialism and the United States, eternal bosom of hot love and greatest man who ever lived.

北朝鲜的独裁者金正日在服装样式上并不是一个引领时尚的人。但要论起职衔膨胀来,引领这股潮流的非他莫属。金正日的正式头衔有1200个,这些头衔大致可以译成"地球的守护神"、"常胜将军"、"21世纪的北斗星"、"反美反帝最前线的最高司令官"、"永怀热爱"和"有史以来最伟大的人"等等。
  
When it comes to job titles, we live in an age of rampant inflation. Everybody you come across seems to be a chief or president of some variety. Title inflation is producing its own vocabulary: "uptitling" and "title-fluffing". It is also producing technological aids. One website provides a simple formula: just take your job title, mix in a few grand words, such as "global", "interface" and "customer", and hey presto.

我们生活在一个职衔膨胀无法抑制的时代。你遇到的每一个人似乎都可能是某某"首席官"或总裁。职衔膨胀现象正在产生一些专有词汇,如"职衔提升"(uptitling)和"职衔浮夸"(title-fluffing)等。为此还引出了技术咨询行当。一个网站提供了一个简单的公式,只需在你的职衔里混进几个冠冕堂皇的单词,如"全球"、"接口"和"顾客"等,就像变戏法似的立马就出现一个能唬人的新职衔。

The rot starts at the top. Not that long ago companies had just two or three "chief" whatnots. Now they have dozens, collectively called the "c-suite". A few have more than one chief executive officer; CB Richard Ellis, a property-services firm, has four. A growing number have chiefs for almost everything from knowledge to diversity. Southwest Airlines has a chief Twitter officer. Coca-Cola and Marriott have chief blogging officers. Kodak has one of those too, along with a chief listening officer.

俗话说"上梁不正下梁歪",这股风气还是从上层开始刮起的。不久以前各公司挂"首席"头衔的也就那么两、三个人。而现在挂有"首席官"头衔的人有好几十,可把他们统称为"首席官一族"了。有的公司首席执行官就不止一个。世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)是一家物业服务公司,它有4个首席执行官。拥有"首席"头衔的人越来越多,其名目五花八门,甚至令人匪夷所思。西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines )就有一位首席推特官(chief Twitter officer)。可口可乐和万豪(Marriott)都有多位首席博客官。柯达也有一位类似的首席官,而且还有一位首席收听官(chief listening officer)。

Even so, chiefs are relatively rare compared with presidents and their various declensions (vice-, assistant-, etc). Almost everybody in banking from the receptionist upwards is a president of some sort. The number of members of LinkedIn, a professional network, with the title vice-president grew 426% faster than the membership of the site as a whole in 2005-09. The inflation rate for presidents was 312% and for chiefs a mere 275%.

即便如此,首席官较之于总裁或挂有总裁二字的头衔(如副总裁,总裁助理等)相比还是稀罕之物。在银行从接待员以上的几乎所有人都是某某总。LinkedIn是一家专业网站,在2005-2009年间,其会员中有副总裁头衔者数量的增长比普通会员快了426%。总裁头衔的膨胀率是312%,而首席官头衔的膨胀率仅为275%。

Title-fluffing is as rampant among the indians as among the chiefs. America's International Association of Administrative Professionals―formerly the National Secretaries Association―reports that it has more than 500 job-titles under its umbrella, ranging from front-office co-ordinator to electronic-document specialist. Paper boys are "media distribution officers". Binmen are "recycling officers". Lavatory cleaners are "sanitation consultants". Sandwich-makers at Subway have the phrase "sandwich artist" emblazoned on their lapels. Even the normally linguistically pure French have got in on the act: cleaning ladies are becoming "techniciennes de surface" (surface technicians).

基层员工对华丽职衔的渴求毫不逊于那些首席官们。美国国际管理专业协会(也就是原来的全国秘书协会)报告说,在它的大旗下有500多种职衔,从行政事务协调专员到电子文档专员等等,无所不有。报童可以称为"媒体配送官"。垃圾回收工是"回收官"。厕所清洁工是"卫生顾问"。在地铁入口现做现卖三明治的大师傅也在翻领上印有"三明治艺术家"的字样。甚至讲究语言纯净的法国人也加入到这个行列中,清洁女工变成了"techniciennes de surface"(表面技术人员)。

What is going on here? The most immediate explanation is the economic downturn: bosses are doling out ever fancier titles as a substitute for pay raises and bonuses. But there are also structural reasons for the trend. The most basic is the growing complexity of businesses. Many not only have presidents and vice-presidents for this or that product line, but also presidents and vice-presidents for various regions. Put the two together and you have a recipe for ever-longer business cards: vice-president for photocopiers Asia-Pacific, for example.

这到底是怎么了?造成这种现象的最直接原因应该就是经济衰退了。老板们没有钱给员工涨工资、发奖金,就给员工们一些非常华丽的职衔,使他们获得某种满足。但这种趋势也有结构性的原因。最主要的原因是企业的日益复杂化。许多公司不仅有负责各项产品的总裁和副总裁,而且还任命了负责各地区的总裁和副总裁。把这两者加在一起,名片上的头衔就愈来愈长。例如,亚太地区复印机副总裁。

The cult of flexibility is also inflationary. The fashion for flattening hierarchies has had the paradoxical effect of multiplying meaningless job titles. Workers crave important-sounding titles to give them the illusion of ascending the ranks. Managers who no longer have anyone to manage are fobbed off with inflated titles, much as superannuated politicians are made Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster or Lord President of the Council. Everybody, from the executive suite downward, wants to fluff up their résumé as a hedge against being sacked.

对灵活性的推崇也助推了职衔的膨胀。各企业纷纷效仿的扁平化管理本意是要减少管理层次,但结果事与愿违,反而多出了许多无意义的职衔。员工们渴望获得冠冕堂皇的头衔,这使他们产生了一种得到升迁的幻觉。手下已经没有一位员工的光杆经理们只要给他们的头衔再大一点就能被搪塞过去,就像给过气的政治家们一个兰开斯特公爵郡大臣(Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster)或枢密院议长(Lord President of the Council)这样的荣誉头衔一样。在官场上走下坡路的每个人在被解职后出于自我保护都会摆出一幅依然大权在握的架势。

Firms also use fancy job titles to signal that they are au fait with the latest fashion. The fad for greenery is producing legions of chief sustainability officers and green ambassadors. BP's travails will undoubtedly have the same effect: we can expect a bull market in chief safety officers and chief apology officers.

各公司还利用花哨的职衔表明它们能够紧跟时尚。对"绿色"的追风导致了首席可持续发展官和绿色大使的涌现。英国石油公司目前的痛苦经历无疑也会带来首席安全官和首席道歉官进入牛市的效果。

The American technology sector has been a champion of title inflation. It has created all sorts of newfangled jobs that have to be given names, and it is also full of linguistically challenged geeks who have a taste for "humorous" titles. Steve Jobs calls himself "chief know it all". Jerry Yang and David Filo, the founders of Yahoo!, call themselves "chief Yahoos". Thousands of IT types dub themselves things like (chief) scrum master, guru, evangelist or, a particular favourite at the moment, ninja.

在美国,技术部门始终引领头衔膨胀的先军。千奇百怪的新技术岗位当然需要配上个动听的名称,即使对那些喜好"幽默"头衔的极客们来说,这也充满了语言学上的挑战。史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)称自己为"首席无所不知"。雅虎的创始人杨致远(Jerry Yang)和大卫•费罗(David Filo)竟然将自己称为"首席雅虎"!成千上万的IT人士喜欢将自己称为(首席)敏捷开发师、(首席)古鲁、(首席)布道官等等,现在是特别流行(首席)忍者这个头衔。

But leadership in title inflation, as in so much else, is passing to the developing world, particularly India and China. Both countries have a longstanding obsession with hierarchy (fancy job titles can be the key to getting a bride as well as the admiration of your friends). They also have tight labour markets. The result is an explosion of titles. Companies have taken to creating baffling jobs such as "outbound specialist". They have also taken to staging public celebrations of promotions from, say, assistant deputy director to principal assistant deputy director.

就像很多其它方面一样,头衔膨胀的领导地位也正转让给发展中国家,特别是印度和中国。这两个国家长期以来都困扰于等级制度,能否拥有一个花哨的职衔甚至攸关能否娶到新娘和赢得朋友的钦佩。他们也有劳动力短缺的问题。这些原因加在一起导致了头衔的爆炸。各公司纷纷推出令人匪夷所思的岗位,如"境外专员"等。各公司还采取分步实施全员大晋升的策略,比如说将所有的副主任助理都晋升为首席副主任助理,让所有员工皆大欢喜。

Inflated benefits, understated drawbacks
职衔膨胀带来的益处被高估,弊端未予重视

Does any of this matter? Title inflation clearly does violence to the language. But isn't that par for the course in the corporate world? And isn't it a small price to pay for corporate harmony? The snag is that the familiar problems of monetary inflation apply to job-title inflation as well. The benefits of giving people a fancy new title are usually short-lived. The harm is long-lasting. People become cynical about their monikers (particularly when they are given in lieu of pay rises). Organisations become more Ruritanian. The job market becomes more opaque. How do you work out the going rate for "vision controller of multiplatform and portfolio" (the BBC)? Or a "manager of futuring and innovation-based strategies" (the American Cancer Society)?

职衔膨胀难道就一无是处吗?职衔膨胀对语言显然是一种摧残,但在企业界这还不是意料之中的事吗?为了企业的和谐,付出这样一点代价难道还不值得吗?问题在于如何将我们熟悉的对付通货膨胀的办法用在对付职衔膨胀上。给员工一个花哨的新职衔所得到的好处通常时间不会太长。但危害却长期存在。人们对他们的名头开始产生怀疑(特别是在只给头衔而不加薪的情况下)。组织则更像是一个鲁里坦尼亚王国。就业市场变得更加难以琢磨。你如何推算英国广播公司的"跨平台与服务组合寻梦控制官"(vision controller of multiplatform and portfolio)或美国癌症协会的"以创新为基础的战略和前景经理"(vision controller of multiplatform and portfolio)现在的市场行情哪?

And, far from providing people with more security, fancy titles can often make them more expendable. Companies might hesitate before sacking an IT adviser. But what about a chief scrum master? The essence of inflation, after all, is that it devalues everything that it touches.

而且戴上一顶花哨的头衔不但不能使现有岗位更加牢靠,反而增加了失去这份工作的危险。公司在解雇一名IT顾问前可能会犹豫一番。但如果是要解聘一个首席敏捷开发师恐拍眼睛都不会眨一下。总之,头衔膨胀实际上是将其所及的岗位都贬值了

The Volcker rule

The Volcker rule
沃尔克规则
Bang or whimper?
情理之中的"酷刑"还是意料之外的"轻判"?

A much-hyped reform may not have much effect on alternative investors
过分渲染的改革可能对另类投资者没有多少影响

Jun 24th 2010 | NEW YORK

RONALD REAGAN once quipped that he didn't know what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them by Congress. If only Congress could run financial reform past Moses. Legislators from the House of Representatives and the Senate this week continued the erratic process of reconciling versions of bills passed by each chamber. By the middle of the week, a number of differences had been ironed out, including the creation of a consumer-protection bureau housed within the Federal Reserve, the regulation of debit-card "interchange" fees and measures requiring firms that securitise loans to retain a portion of the risk. But the trickiest issues were still to come.
美国总统罗纳德•里根曾经开玩笑说:"要是摩西写的《十诫》要经过国会讨论的话,那我现在就不会知道它长什么样了。"如果国会的金融改革法案由摩西审议通过就好了。这周参议院和众议院的立法委员继续着他们没有结果的会议,对两院各自版本的金融改革法案进行协商。直到周中,一些分歧已经得到了解决,包括在美联储的框架下建立一个消费者保护机构,签帐卡交易费用的管理和证券化贷款的公司须保留承担部分风险的实施办法。但最棘手的问题还会接踵而来。

Among them was discussion of the "Volcker rule", which was designed to restrict banks' "proprietary" trading activities (bets made for their own account) and "sponsorship" of hedge funds and private-equity firms. The provision, named after Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, was first unveiled by Barack Obama in January. Since then some bankers have worried that they might be forced to sell their hedge funds and private-equity units because politicians consider those activities too risky.
其中之一就是对"沃尔克规则"的讨论,该规则禁止了银行的自营业务(用自己的账户进行投资)和银行对对冲基金和私募股权公司的"赞助"。这项提案,以美联储前主席保罗•沃尔克命名,由总统巴拉克•奥巴马在1月份首次提出。随后一些银行家开始担心,他们的对冲基金和私募股权业务将被强行剥离,因为政客们觉得这些业务风险太大了。

Their worst fears seem unfounded. As The Economist went to press, it looked likely that a diluted version of the Volcker rule would pass, allowing banks to keep running hedge-fund and private-equity units for clients who want to invest in them, and perhaps to keep putting a small share of their own capital in them as well. To placate those who wanted to see a stricter version, some senators were pushing a provision that would give regulators less say in how to enforce the rule.
他们对最糟糕结果的担忧看起来毫无根据。截至《经济学人》发稿,国会可能最终通过的是一个淡化版的沃尔克规则,它允许银行根据客户的投资需求继续经营对冲基金和私募股权业务,可能还允许银行将自有资本的一小部分投进去。为了安抚那些更严厉版本的支持者,一些议员提出了一个建议:在如何实行法令方面给监管者更少的话语权。

Many banks had already been betting that the Volcker rule would not cause them to surrender their role in the "alternative investment" sector. Citigroup has plans to raise more than $3 billion for its private-equity and hedge funds, an audacious move considering regulators' watchful eyes. JPMorgan Chase, whose Highbridge hedge fund has an estimated $22 billion under management, reportedly wants to buy Gávea Investimentos, a Brazilian asset manager. They may not be able to invest as much of their own capital in these vehicles, but it looks as if they can keep making money on them.
一些银行已经在押宝沃尔克规则不会让他们在"另类投资"领域缴械投降。花旗集团计划为它旗下的私募股权基金和对冲基金募集超过30亿美元的资金,考虑到监管者的重重戒心,这是一项大胆的冒险行为。摩根大通的海布里奇对冲基金有估计220亿美元的可运作资金,有报道称它计划收购一家巴西的资产管理公司Gávea Investimentos。这些银行也许不能用他们的自有资金对对冲基金和私募股权作如此规模的投资,但看起来他们在这领域仍旧能赚到票子。

The Volcker rule will have some effects on the relationship between Wall Street and alternative investment companies. Already, proprietary traders have started to leave banks and go to hedge funds, where they feel more certain about their long-term employment prospects, say headhunters. Tim Sangston of Greenwich Associates, a research firm, expects a further migration of traders out of banks once the bill is finally passed.
沃尔克规则对华尔街和另类投资公司之间的关系会有一些影响。一些自营业务交易员已经开始从银行跳槽到对冲基金,因为他们觉得长期来看在对冲基金职位更有保障,猎头公司如是说。来自格林尼治公司――一家研究公司――的吉姆•山士顿预计,在法案最终公布后,会有更多的银行交易员跳槽。

Some traders may also try to start their own hedge funds, although the fundrais-ing environment is bleak. The Volcker rule could make things even worse. Funds of funds owned by American banks provide around $180 billion, or about 16% of all its assets under management, to the hedge-fund industry. Some of that is seed money, which goes to managers who are starting funds. If the final version of Volcker prevents banks from investing as much capital in hedge funds, start-ups may have fewer potential backers.
一些交易员试图建立了自己的对冲基金,尽管融资环境依旧恶劣。而沃尔克规则会使事情变得更糟。美国银行旗下的基金投资型基金为对冲基金行业提供了将近1800亿美元的资金,约为其可运作资产的16%。其中一些钱是种子基金,即流向基金发起者的钱。如果最终版本的沃尔克规则禁止银行向对冲基金投入如此规模的资金,那新成立公司的潜在投资者将会更少。

Alternatives thinking
另一种观点

Not everyone thinks the Volcker rule will be bad news, however. Non-banks with seeding funds, such as Blackstone, a private-equity firm, and Citadel, a hedge fund, may fill some of the fund-raising gap. And if banks are required to reduce their own investments in alternative assets, that should be a boost for the secondary market for stakes in private-equity funds. Harvey Lambert of PineBridge Investments, an alternative-asset manager, estimates that banks could choose to sell as much as $100 billion in private-equity positions, which is around two or three times the size of the whole secondary market now.
但不是所有人都觉得沃尔克规则是一个坏消息。手握种子基金的非银行投资机构,比如私募股权公司黑石和对冲基金Citadel,可能会填补一些融资缺口。并且法案要求银行减少对另类资产的投资,那会促进私募股权基金证券二级市场的发展。PineBridge Investments的哈维•兰伯特,也是一个另类资产管理人,估计银行将出售多达1000以美元的私募股权资产,这相当于现在二级市场流通总额的两到三倍。

Even so, these potential effects look relatively modest compared with the splash the rule made when it was first unveiled. Peter Clarke, the boss of Man, a large hedge fund, pooh-poohs the importance of the Volcker rule. He says the "continued deleveraging of banks" will influence returns at hedge funds more than the new rules. Irrespective of the Volcker rule, banks' need to get rid of assets and unwind trades will be good news for many in the alternative-investment industry, he says, because there will be less competition for returns.
尽管如此,这些潜在效果相比于沃尔克规则刚刚被提出时造成的恐慌,还是显得微不足道。彼得•克拉克,一家大型对冲基金Man的老板,对沃尔克规则的重要性不屑一顾。他说,银行的去杠杆化对对冲基金收益的影响要大于新规则。即使没有沃尔克规则,银行也要进行资产剥离和交易整理,这对于一些另类投资领域的公司来说不失为一个好消息,他说,因为有更少人跟你争利润了。
 

True-bluefin

本帖最后由 dqzxf 于 2010-6-25 06:42 编辑

Green.view        
绿色观察

True-bluefin
绝对正品

Farming one of the ocean's greatest fish
蓝鳍金枪鱼的养殖

Jun 22nd 2010

DURING May and June, when the mighty bluefin tuna returns to the Mediterranean to spawn, fishermen arrive from all over the world to catch it (click here to watch a video). In days gone by, the fish were netted and killed on the spot. Now, in high-tech operations involving divers and video cameras, they are transferred from the nets into "farms"―arrays of cages anchored to the sea floor from Spain to Malta, to be fattened up. Then, come October, they are sold to Japanese boats, killed, frozen and shipped to Japan.

每年5、6月份是强大的蓝鳍金枪鱼群游回地中海产卵的季节,世界各地的渔民们纷纷汇聚于此迎接金枪鱼的到来。以往鱼民们用网捕鱼,将鱼当场宰杀。现在,借助于潜水设备和摄像机等高科技装置的帮助,渔民们将捕获的金枪鱼转移到养殖网箱内进行人工养殖。在从西班牙到马耳他的广阔海域内,张起了一片片的网箱,这些网箱用锚固定在海底。到了10月的时候,日本的船只会前来收购这些金枪鱼,宰杀和冷冻后,将这些鱼运回日本。

It is a lucrative arrangement. Anthony Grupetta, the director general of agriculture and fisheries regulation in Malta, says that in those few months most farmers can increase the weight of a wild-caught bluefin by 27-30%. (He claims the Maltese farms do better than this, but does not say exactly how much better.) The cages do not cost much, and the fish fed to a tuna are worth a lot less than the added kilos of tuna-meat that result. What is more, Japanese buyers prefer fish raised this way. They say the quality of the meat from a bluefin killed straight after being caught is less tasty, as the fish has been stressed.

这是一个利润丰厚的行业。安东尼•格鲁皮塔(Anthony Grupetta)是马耳他农业和渔业管理局局长,他介绍说在短短几个月的时间里这些捕获的野生蓝鳍金枪鱼的重量大多数可以增加27-30%。他声称马耳他养殖的金枪鱼重量增加的还要多一些,但没有精确地说出增加了多少。网箱花费不大,而投喂饲料鱼的花费与金枪鱼增重相比是太值得了。更重要的是,日本买家偏爱这种人工饲养的鱼。他们认为,捕获后直接宰杀的鱼肉质不太好,理由是鱼处于一种紧张的状态下被宰杀。



Charlie Azzopardi, the managing director of Azzopardi Fisheries, which runs two of Malta's seven farms, brought the idea of raising caged bluefin to Malta ten years ago, after seeing it done in Spain and Australia. According to Mr Azzopardi the bluefin industry now generates about 1.5% of Malta's GDP. Japanese freezer boats take 95% of his production. The other 5% is sold fresh, to order, at all times of year. It can be a precarious business, though. A collapse in demand meant the price of bluefin fell by 40% last year and Mr Azzopardi chose to keep his fish on the farm until prices improved. On the supply side, fishermen complain that the size of the bluefin they are catching has plummeted in recent years. That reduction in individual size could be the result of a reduction in the tuna population that is causing fewer fish to reach maturity.

马耳他7个蓝鳍金枪鱼养殖场中有两个属于阿泽帕迪渔业公司(Azzopardi Fisheries),查理•阿泽帕迪(Charlie Azzopardi)是该公司的常务董事,他在十年前目睹了西班牙和澳大利亚进行的蓝鳍金枪鱼网箱养殖后,将从事这一事业的想法带回马耳他。按阿泽帕迪的说法,现在马耳他蓝鳍金枪鱼养殖业的产出约占该国GDP的1.5%,而其中95%的鱼被日本的冷冻船运走了。余下5%的鱼被继续养殖在网箱中,在一年中任何时候都可以按照订单随要随杀。然而,金枪鱼养殖不是一个稳定的行业。去年由于需求的迅速减少而导致蓝鳍金枪鱼价格下降了40%,阿泽帕迪的选择是将鱼留在网箱内,什么时候鱼价回升再捞出来。渔民是网箱养鱼的上家,他们也抱怨说,最近几年捕捞的蓝鳍金枪鱼个头大幅降低。金枪鱼个头减小的原因可能是这种鱼的总的数量减少了,进而导致成年个体金枪鱼的减少。

Related items
•        Trade in endangered species: Fishy businessMar 25th 2010
•        Bluefin tuna: Eaten awayMar 18th 2010
•        Banyan: Not whaling but drowningMar 11th 2010

可参见本刊曾刊登的下列相关文章:
濒危物种贸易:渔业 (Trade in endangered species: Fishy business) 2010年3月25日
蓝鳍金枪鱼:捕净吃绝 (Bluefin tuna: Eaten away)2010年3月18日
榕树:沉溺(Banyan: Not whaling but drowning )2010年3月11日

Mr Azzopardi says that despite the warnings from scientists, he does not believe the numbers of wild fish are falling. A number of green groups disagree, and believe that the quota allowed for fishing in these parts is far too high. One activist group, Greenpeace, has attempted to take matters into its own hands and has made several attacks on legal tuna-fishing operations over the past few weeks.

阿泽帕迪先生说,尽管科学家们发出了警告,他还是不相信野生金枪鱼的数量正在下降。许多环保组织对此表示反对,并认为在这些地区允许捕鱼的限额太高。绿色和平组织提倡积极采取行动,一直试图靠他们自己去解决这个问题,并在过去几个星期内对合法的金枪鱼捕鱼作业发动了几次袭击。

Things might be better for the bluefin if it were possible to breed them in captivity, as well as raising them there. Though they call it farming, what Mr Azzopardi and his competitors are engaged in is actually more like ranching. Real husbandry nurtures animals from birth to death rather than just fattening up wild-caught individuals. That could bring economic benefits. It would also, some people think, take the pressure off wild stocks.

如果不仅能够人工养殖蓝鳍金枪鱼,还能够让捕获的鱼在喂养状态下进行繁殖,则蓝鳍金枪鱼数量下降的局面可能就会得到改善。虽然叫养殖,但阿泽帕迪和他的竞争对手们所从事的其实更像是在大海牧鱼。真正的养殖是指动物从出生到死亡的全过程都在饲养状态下进行,而不是仅仅将野外捕捉的动物个体进行饲养催肥。真正的养殖可以在经济上获利。还有些人认为,这样的措施还可以减轻野生种群面临的生存压力。

Clean Seas Tuna, an Australian company, has been working on the idea of farming bluefins for more than a decade, and seems to have made some progress. Last year it posted a video on YouTube showing baby southern bluefin that it had bred.

澳大利亚的净海金枪鱼公司(Clean Seas Tuna)在10余年的时间里一直致力于蓝鳍金枪鱼的养殖,该公司在这方面似乎已经取得了一些进展。去年,它在YouTube网站上挂的一段视频显示该公司孵化出了南方蓝鳍金枪鱼的幼苗。

But there is more to farming than just breeding. A recurring problem for tuna-rearers is "spooking and walling". Alex Mühlhölzl of Oceanic Tuna, a company based in Scotland which also claims to be able to breed bluefin, explains that the fish are easily frightened. In the sea, there are no walls and a frightened fish's best escape is to swim off very fast indeed in whatever direction takes its fancy. In tanks and cages, however, this is a bad―often fatal―strategy.

但养殖不仅仅是育种。金枪鱼养殖者遇到的下一个问题是"惊吓与围栏"海洋金枪鱼公司(Oceanic Tuna)位于苏格兰,该公司声称也能够繁殖蓝鳍金枪鱼。该公司的亚历克斯•米赫尔茨尔(Alex Mühlhölzl)解释说,这种鱼胆子很小。在大海上没有围栏,金枪鱼受到惊吓后的应急反应就是朝它们选定的方向以极快的速度游走。然而在网箱和养殖笼内,这种方式很不明智,常常会要了它们的命。

Another argument against both ranching and farming is that the tuna still have to be fed, and that means with other fish caught from the wild. But this could change. In the case of salmon, a carnivorous species that is now farmed routinely, it has proved possible to mix veggies and other sources of protein into the fish's chow. The fish content of salmon food has been reduced from 70% in 1972 to around 20% today, says Kjell Bjordal, the head of Ewos, a Norwegian fish-food company.

另一种观点对金枪鱼的养殖和放牧都表示反对,理由是这两种方式仍然都需要捕捉其它野生鱼类喂养金枪鱼。但这也可以改变。鲑鱼是一种现在常规养殖的食肉性鱼类,已经证实在这种鱼的饲料中混入蔬菜和其它含蛋白质的成份是可行的。谢尔•比尤达尔(Kjell Bjordal)是一家挪威鱼饲料公司Ewos的老板,他介绍说,鲑鱼食料中鱼所占的比例已经由1972年的70%下降到目前的20%左右。

Feeding has also become more efficient. Mr Bjordal says that for salmon the conversion rate―the number of kilos of food needed for a gain of one kilo of body weight―is now almost 1.1:1. For tuna it can be as bad as 6:1. But that is where salmon farming was 35 years ago, so there is plenty of scope for improvement.

饲养的效率也提高了。比尤达尔说,鲑鱼的转换率(每公斤体重增长所需饲料)现在已经接近1.1:1。而金枪鱼的这一比例最糟糕的情况下可达6:1。但鲑鱼的养殖用了35年时间才达到现在这种效率,所以金枪鱼养殖还有很大的改进余地。

If bluefin could be farmed routinely, it might bring the price down, relieving pressure on wild stocks, as happened with salmon. That would be a boon to the hungry consumer. It would also be a boon to the species itself, though―again, as with salmon―the wild animal might become a premium product in its own right.

如果蓝鳍金枪鱼能够进行常规养殖,就可能将价格降下来,减轻对野生种群的压力,就像曾出现在鲑鱼的现象一样。嗜好这种鱼的消费者将有幸大饱口福了。而这对蓝鳍金枪鱼来说也是幸事。但与鲑鱼的情况一样,这样一来野生金枪鱼可能会成为更加难得一品的珍肴了
 

William English's Very Big Job at the Fed

 
 

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William English's Very Big Job at the Fed

The new top monetary policy adviser at the Fed will help decide when to lift rates and shrink the balance sheet

By Scott Lanman

William English, the Federal Reserve economist about to become Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's top monetary policy adviser, has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. As a grad student at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he counted Bernanke, then a 29-year-old visiting professor from Stanford University, among his teachers. As a Yale University undergrad in 1980, English wandered into the gym where the varsity fencing team was practicing; the sophomore was recruited on the spot because of the competitive edge his 6-foot, 10-inch frame offered.

Now, with the retirement of his boss, monetary affairs director Brian F. Madigan, and Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn, who had run the division for 14 years until 2001, the 49-year-old English is about to become one of the central bank's most important players. Much like fencing, the new job requires mental agility, including crafting how and when the central bank will reverse the most expansive monetary policy in its 96-year history without deep-sixing the U.S. economy along the way. The task is "about as challenging as any director of that post has ever had," says former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at Potomac Research Group in Washington. "Markets have become extremely sensitive to every word the Fed puts out, so a slight mishap and he could send markets for a reel."

Allan H. Meltzer, a historian of the Fed, has faulted the monetary affairs staff for being "far too supportive" of Bernanke's bailouts and emergency loans during the 2008 financial panic, actions that he thinks may have compromised the Fed's independence. "It's a difficult job in the best of times," Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, says of English's new post. "And these are not the best of times."

Nicknamed "Big Bill," English takes over monetary affairs as the Fed debates when to start raising its benchmark interest rate from close to zero and how quickly to sell $1.1 trillion of housing debt the Fed bought during the recent crisis. "These are economic issues that academics are going to be thinking about for generations," English said in an interview last month. "I'm sitting in the middle of it, trying to make sense of it in real time."

The youngest of four children, English grew up in West Hartford, Conn., where finance was part of the dinner table conversation. His father, James, was chief executive officer of Connecticut Bank & Trust in the 1970s and served on the Federal Advisory Council, a group of bank executives that advise the Fed.

English will lead a team of about 90 staff members responsible for compiling the confidential Bluebook, which outlines policy choices for the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The team also runs the discount lending window for banks and conducts a quarterly survey of commercial bank lenders.

Helping Bernanke select the right language to signal the pace and timing of a rate change, possibly in the first quarter of 2011, now falls to the new director. The trick is to come up with words that allow maximum flexibility while not surprising investors. At the end of the June 22-23 FOMC meeting, the Fed stuck to its pledge to keep the main rate low for "an extended period," the phrase it has used since March 2009.

The bottom line: A new monetary policy director starts at the Fed just as it debates how and when to reverse the most expansive moves in its history.

Lanman is a reporter for Bloomberg News.

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央行的“七种武器” 系统解释了央行的货币机制

  • 央行的"七种武器"
  • 2010-6-26    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 央票和存款准备金率是央行最常用的管理流动性工具,只有在通胀成为不可逆转的趋势或者经济增长堪忧时,央行才会动用利率工具。而汇率调整往往更多基于政治考虑,量化宽松的货币政策是对付衰退的最上的后一招。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》研究员 仝冰】中国人民银行货币政策委员会2010年第一季度例会公报提出,要灵活运用多种货币政策工具,保持银行体系流动性合理充裕,引导货币信贷总量适度增长。央行公报之所以强调保证信贷总量适度增长,是因为企业信贷决定了投资需求,而家庭信贷与消费需求密切相关。

    由著名的货币恒等式MV=PQ(M为货币需求量,V为货币流通速度,P为商品价格,Q为商品量)可知,在不考虑货币流通速度变化的情况下,决定名义总需求的直接因素是货币量M。货币量是由商业银行体系利用基础货币通过存贷款的乘数效应创造出来的。中央银行对货币数量的调控往往通过影响这个乘数过程来实现。

    基础货币包括中央银行资产负债表中的现金和商业银行体系的准备金,是整个银行体系存款扩张、货币创造的基础。银行准备金中超过法定准备金的部分叫做超额准备金。1994年开始,我们国家在经常项目下实行结售汇制度,企业外汇收入强制性地出售给中央银行。加入WTO以后出口激增,由央行购汇渠道形成的准备金快速增长,在银行体系中注入了大量超额流动性。由于商业银行可以利用超额准备金扩大贷款,使得总需求膨胀。因此,中央银行管理总需求的一个重要内容就是管理银行的超额准备金。

    央行兵器库

    中央银行的货币调控有多种手段,价格性的手段包括央票利率、存贷款利率、汇率等;数量型的手段包括贷款额度控制、准备金率等。不同的货币工具有不同的特征,在特定情形下灵活使用可以达到微妙的效果。

    央行管理超额流动性的最常用工具是公开市场操作。由于在银行间市场上可以买卖的政府公债和国库券的数量有限,从2003年开始,中央银行主要通过发行央行票据回收多投放的基础货币。央行票据相当于中央银行向商业银行发行的"政府债券"(公债)。商业银行购买央行票据的直接结果就是可贷资金量的减少,而央票到期则体现为投放基础货币。为吸引金融机构用央票置换其超额准备金存款,央行需要提供比存款准备金更高的利率,央票利率提高鼓励商业银行将超额准备金投资于央票而不是扩大贷款。利用央票调节基础货币是一种微调的工具,受商业银行购买意愿与价格的制约,并不构成对商业银行行为的硬约束。央行通过发行央票的品种、数量和利率来发出信号,表明对当前经济形势的判断,提前进行通胀预期管理。

    在商业银行有贷款冲动,境内外利差对游资有吸引力时,提高存款准备金率可以低成本冻结多余的流动性。2005年以来,伴随着人民币升值过程,热钱涌入导致银行体系充斥过量的流动性。此时通过央票回收基础货币类似于杯水车薪,央行开始更多地提高准备金率。在经济学教科书中,提高准备金率是一种极为猛烈的政策。这是因为一般假设商业银行超额准备金为零。在超额准备金率很高的时侯,提高准备金率在边际上是无效的。这也是伴随着存款准备金率的提高,CPI通胀也节节上升的原因。

    发行央票和提高准备金率是吮吸银行部门流动性的常用方法。在人民币低估的情况下,通过外汇占款导致基础货币超额投放是经济运行的常态。面对这种情形,釜底抽薪的方法是升值;另外一种方法是冲销操作,比如在出口企业结汇获得人民币资金的同时,收回内向型企业的贷款。但这一方法会使生产要素流入出口部门,使经济结构扭曲失衡。

    在成熟的金融市场里,商业银行的存贷款利率是弹性的。近年来,由于新凯恩斯主义在西方重新兴起,央行(比如美联储)逐渐放弃货币数量作为盯住目标,而是通过调整基准利率来影响商业银行的存贷行为,控制经济的总需求。而在中国,由于各种原因,调高利率往往成为总需求调控的最后选择。存贷款利率存在行政管制,无法反映社会资金的机会成本。由于利率对于经济状况反应不灵活,经济很容易陷入两个极端,造成宏观经济不稳定。

    在经济高涨时,真实利率过低无法限制银行信贷和投资,导致需求扩张从而通胀增加,通胀增加又会导致预期的通胀增加,从而进一步降低了真实利率。这正是威克赛尔和弗里德曼所言的"自我实现"的累积过程。这种名义利率固定的经济中没有均衡,必须通过信贷额度控制和行政手段来控制总需求。在1994年、2004年和2008年初,政府都是使用这样的手段调控需求过快增长。这些措施十分有效,但是对实体经济杀伤力也很大。信贷削减,在建项目得不到资金从而无法完工,银行以往贷款无法收回成为坏账,潜藏了金融风险。随着需求下降,商品和资产价格下跌。贷款利率下调滞后导致真实利率过高,使得企业家投资新项目没有利润可图,因此企业投资和贷款需求下降。而企业利润和资产价格下跌导致的自有资本金下降,也使得银行没有意愿对企业贷款。加上对未来的悲观预期,消费者和企业的支出同时下降,微观经济主体的"囚徒博弈"导致宏观的总需求不足,这正是1998年、2005年和2008年底所发生的事情。

名义利率固定在导致通货膨胀大幅波动的同时,还导致巨额的财富转移。由于贷款是以事前确定的名义利率偿还,如果事后实现的通货膨胀高于预期,居民的财富会向银行和企业转移,企业家可以扩大投资从而经济扩张。反之,真实资源就从企业家转移到家庭,这压缩了企业利润和投资,经济会陷入通货紧缩的陷阱。经济学家欧文.费雪利用这一机制解释1930年代美国大萧条的发生,因此又被称为"费雪债务紧缩机制"。

通货膨胀是一种货币现象,政府通过压缩银行贷款就可以控制货币和总需求;但是通货紧缩更为复杂。货币数量是由银行和企业的存贷款行为共同决定的;在通货紧缩时,货币具有更强的内生性。货币政策类似控制宏观经济马车的缰绳,可以拉但是不能推。当经济面对负向冲击导致衰退(比如次贷危机或者出口下降),央行通过降低利率缓冲负面冲击。如果经济主体的通胀预期是很大的负值,那么即便名义利率为零,真实利率仍然高于使经济达到均衡的利率。此时利率工具失灵,实体经济则在向下的轨道上越滑越远。这一现象往往被称为"流动性陷阱",央行常规的货币工具就失效了,无法进一步扩大货币数量。此时财政政策往往成为最后的救命稻草。Krugman研究了1990年代的日本经济,提出另外一种避免通缩的方法:创造未来的通胀预期。即便当期货币供给无法增加,未来货币供给增加的承诺也会刺激总需求。简而言之,通过管理通胀预期可以降低真实利率,使经济摆脱通缩-衰退的死循环。

2006年以来的次贷危机,美联储为了应对危机对货币政策工具做了多种创新。量化宽松的货币政策正是弗里德曼思想的实践:"为了克服通货紧缩,不惜从直升机上撒钱。"

武器杀伤力

央行的货币政策工具中,央票是最为温和、灵活的,市场分析者通过央票发行情况来判断货币政策走向;在银行体系流动性过于宽裕时,提高法定准备金率尽管在边际上无效,但表明了央行对通胀的忧虑,对于管理通胀预期有一定作用;窗口指导和信贷数量控制则越过从基础货币到广义货币的乘数过程,直接影响商业银行的贷款行为,区别在于前者是软约束,后者是硬约束;理论上调整存贷款利率应该成为控制总需求的常规手段,而在过去的实践中,只有在通胀成为不可逆转的趋势或者经济增长堪忧的时候,央行才会动用利率工具;汇率调整往往更多是基于政治考虑;量化宽松的货币政策是对付经济衰退的最后一招,往往和财政政策一起使用。

货币冲击的传播是一个复杂的过程,其间牵涉各种复杂的机制:经济主体的预期加快了对货币冲击的调整,而实体经济的粘性摩擦又阻滞了这一过程。存货行为、信贷摩擦又会在经济波动中引入乘数-加速数机制,产生更加复杂的动态。不同类型的货币政策对市场利率、金融部门和实体经济的影响存在差异。中央银行在执行货币政策时,首先要建立计量模型,将模型作为一个理想的实验室,对于不同货币政策的效应进行模拟和评估。在此基础上,才会将货币政策付诸实施。

货币扩张可以表述为一个完整的链条:"货币增加(利率调低)――需求扩张――投资增加――资产价格提高――企业利润和企业家净值增加――信贷扩张――货币和产出增加"。货币政策首当其冲的作用对象是资本市场,这主要是通过改变投资者的预期和流动性效应来实现;然后才会逐渐扩散到实体经济,实体经济又会对资本市场和货币政策形成反馈作用。

货币政策对资产价格的影响是即时的,主要的机制是"流动性效应"。由于不同的资产市场是分割的,当货币增加的时候,投资者不能很快的调整其资产结构。因此短期内在某一种资产市场上,资产价格不是完全由未来资产收益的当期折现决定,还要取决于这个市场当前的买方购买力(买压)。货币扩张代表的购买压力没有同等作用在所有存量资产和流量商品上,而是首先表现在离货币当局最近的金融市场上,引起资产价格的上升。

 

  • 商品价格对于货币冲击的反应可以区分为两类:第一类商品往往位于产业链的上游,比如石油、农产品和原材料。其市场结构往往是完全竞争性的。由于可以储存,这类商品价格粘性较小,波动较大,决定其价格的主要是预期因素。货币增长的压力往往首先作用在这一类商品上,使其表现出超调。为了规避这类大宗商品价格的过度波动,往往会建立期货市场,完善其定价机制。

    第二类是普通的工业消费品和服务,位于产业链的下游。这一类商品的市场结构往往是垄断竞争的。由于垄断,企业可以得到超额利润,因此存在扩大生产的冲动;而企业之间的竞争,使得企业不能贸然提价,那样就可能失去顾客。这种囚徒困境导致了价格的粘性,当需求增长的时候,生产者的第一反应不是提价,而是扩大生产。这会增加资本和劳动的雇佣,对生产要素价格形成压力。这类商品价格(核心CPI)的变化反映了当期和预期生产成本的变化,总的来说是经济周期的滞后指标。而PMI(采购经理人指数)代表了企业对生产要素的需求,反映了企业面对需求变化的第一反应,在更大程度上是经济周期的先行指标。

    反映第一类商品价格变化的包括原材料燃料动力购进价格指数和企业商品价格指数,相对处于下游的是工业品出厂价格指数(PPI),更下游的是核心CPI。一般认为,价格波动首先出现在生产领域的PPI,然后通过产业链传导到下游的CPI。但是这种价格传导是需要一定条件的,决定因素是由货币控制的总需求。在总需求没有紧缩的情况下,上游价格可能传导到下游,即PPI领先于CPI;如果总需求是固定不变的,上游价格上升,下游企业的反应可能不是提价而是降低工资或者退出生产。由于总的购买力是固定的,结果反而有可能是PPI上升而CPI下降。

    基于作者构建的模型进行粗略测算,如果货币增长年率从14%增加到22%,并且持续4个季度左右,那么GDP增长加快3个百分点,其高峰在4个季度以后达到;通货膨胀最高峰为年率10%左右,高点在3个季度以后达到;资产价格最高提高8%,高点在货币增长的当期实现。以对实体经济的影响而言,一个百分点的利率提高大约相当于三个百分点货币量的增加。

    真实经济的粘性使得货币冲击的影响有延迟作用,影响更加持久,主要变量都呈现驼峰状反应。货币冲击的影响还与货币冲击的持续性成正相关。这反映了经济主体的预期:当央行保持通胀稳定的承诺可信时,经济主体相信当前的货币高增长在下一期不会持续,这相当于持续性较低的情形;如果央行的承诺不可信,经济主体相信当前的高增长会持续下去,这相当于持续性较高的情形。

    理想的货币政策应该是坚定而又温和的,在中长期坚定的控制通胀,稳定经济主体的预期;在短期则可以相应的微调,以缓冲外生冲击对于实体经济的影响,保证经济增长更加平稳。

  • 2010年6月22日

    农业

    最近,农业悄悄热起来了,最新的感觉来自我经常逛的天涯论坛。

    前段日子,白领回乡潮涌动,陆续的,一些先行者开始在坛子里发帖子,大概有两类,一类是做特产投资的,比如深圳做门禁系统的白领回到西部县老家后,利用当地的某种特种石膏制作工艺品,来天涯吆喝,引来看客无数,有的人还留言要买他的产品。还有一类投身农业,搞特种养殖业。

    这些市场大多少人涉足,原来进入这些领域的企业规模都不大,其次市场的消费力还有待挖掘。对于创业者来说,无不面临寻找核心的技术工人、布局营销网络、打开终端市场的问题。

    最近,听闻合众资本召开"2010首届中国现代农业产业投融资峰会",一下感受到资本界对农业板块的热情,于是欣然前往。各种信息表明,这里的天地非常广阔有待挖掘。

    对于资本界而言,2004年以来,中央连续7个"一号文件"瞄准"三农",让翘然管理资本合伙人程钰等人开始关注农业,在拥有千万甚至亿元资本的金融大亨看来,农产业当下的格局分散,未来是非常好的投资农业企业、整合市场的机会。程钰的风投同行都认为,中国传统农业向现代农业转变的过程中,产业集中化是大趋势。

    而东方艾格农业咨询有限公司总经理黄德钧表示,"从我们公司的业务来看,农业越来越受到国际资本的关注,越来越多的PE、VC、投行选择了农业项目。"他认为,长期来看,中国农业的升值潜力很大。首先是农产品价格有上涨空间,目前中国农产品和食品价格只相当于韩国、日本的1/3。在未来十年,农产品将是一个缓慢上涨的过程。2020年以前,主要的大宗农产品将上涨约50%。

    而来自政策层面的消息也是一种支持的姿态。国家发改委公众营养与发展中心主任于小冬现场询问,"是否在座的同志有没有看过《财富第五波》"?据他介绍,《财富第五波》在西方世界的发达国家很风行,书中认为,继蒸汽机、电力、生物、计算机、网络之后,第五波的经济发展将是健康经济的时代。这个时代也是农业有望大发展的时代。这本书目前已经被翻译为25种语言。他所在机构还邀请该书作者来做演讲。

    其中,他提到这一观点,根据各国的发展来看,当一个国家的人均GDP达到3000美元以后,公众对食物营养、健康的追求有一个跨越式的发展。而目前,中国GDP是3600美元,已经进入了这一时代。这是现代农业发展的大背景。

    当然,这一市场也不是唾手可得,很多企业已经进入农业产业,但是发展的状况,不是很令人满意。个中原因,华奥物种集团总裁谢韬提到,目前,"有的企业上亿的销售额,而利润只有几百万,这跟企业做的太杂有关系。同时大部分的农业企业的管理团队是家族式的,是一种模式出来的。

    他提醒一点,农业最基本的营业模式就是物流。如果没有操控农产品、仓储运输服务能力,农业是做不好的。国外大的农业公司,大部分也是物流企业,做农产品的物流实际上跟农业的特性相关。

    中国农业部政策法规司副司长黄延信在多次的走访企业中所看到的情况,则提供了一个更广阔的视角。需要注意的是,这里也蕴藏着巨大的发展潜力:

    第一,现在的企业综合实力不强。比如2008年,龙头企业销售收入只有4000多万元,90%以上的龙头企业销售收入在亿元以下,达到百亿元以上的屈指可数。跟国外相比,我国龙头企业不论是在销售收入还是在资产的规模、盈利水平都有比较大的差距。

    第二,知名品牌较少。尽管多数龙头企业都注册了自己的商标,但是知名品牌还是比较少,对消费者的影响能力非常有限,市场占有力很低。目前我国农产品生产企业能够数的上的像伊利、蒙牛、三元,其他的农产品加工企业,再说品牌,很多消费者要想半天才能想起来这个产品。这说明缺少知名度、缺少品牌。

    第三,缺乏营销网络。大多数龙头企业影响力较低,缺乏完善畅通的营销网络和先进的仓储物流体系。全球一流的农业企业更是寥寥无几,企业缺少售后服务,缺少必要的检验检测设备。现在很做企业没有自己的专卖店。

    第四,创新能力有限。我国龙头企业技术装备,90%以上是80年代的设备水平,15%左右大概处于90年代的水平,只有少数企业达到现在比较先进的水平。而且龙头企业普遍缺乏研发机构和技术检验检测设备设施,科研人员较少,科研投入占销售收入的比重远远低于国际平均水平。尤其是大多数农产品龙头企业,都是以农产品的粗加工为主,开发新产品的能力比较弱,产品附加值比较低。

    第五,企业普遍的融资困难。除了大的企业之外,中小企业融资渠道非常狭窄,很多企业得不到银行贷款,就走民间借高利贷。国际上常用的通过融资、发行债券等等,我国的中小企业很少有做的。这一方面,是市场上缺少为中小企业融资的各类投资基金,像产业基金、私募股权基金。另一方面,企业对融资工具也缺少足够的认识,现在农业产业化企业普遍融资困难。

    如果创业,找准市场、有一支拥有先进理念的团队,以现代公司的运营理念来操作,有一定规模后,争取政策支持、资本市场的支持,无疑,知名的、大型的农业企业不是不可能。

    Telling tales with tellurium

    Telling tales with tellurium
    揭秘碲元素



    CAMERA-PHONES, a gimmick and a luxury a few years ago, have become ubiquitous. The International Telecommunications Union estimates that 4.6 billion mobile phones are in use at the moment. Of those, more than a billion are equipped with cameras, according to Tom Hausken, an analyst at Strategies Unlimited, a market research firm based in Mountain View, California. Dr Hausken estimates that some 800m camera-phones will be sold this year.
    几年前拍照手机象征着精巧与奢华,而如今它代表着普遍的潮流。国际电信联盟估计目前已有46亿部手机处于使用中。据来自加州山景城市场调研公司
    Strategies Unlimited的一名分析家Tom Hausken说,其中多达10亿部的手机装配有照相机。Hausken博士估计今年拍照手机的销售量将达到约80亿部。

    Yet most of the photos taken with these phones will be grainy and of low resolution―fine for capturing the essence of a moment to send to friends and family, but not good enough to frame for the wall. The reason is that both camera and lens have to be small, to fit with all the other gubbins on a phone. A typical camera-phone is equipped with a one- or two-megapixel silicon-based camera chip that is about 8mm across. Phone cameras with up to five megapixels are becoming available, but InVisage, a small firm based in Menlo Park, California, hopes to leap from that to a photographically respectable 12 megapixels, without an increase in size or cost, by adding tiny crystals called quantum dots to the process.
    然而,这类手机拍摄所得的大部分照片都存在噪点,且分辨率低――捕捉朋友和家人们瞬间的影像较为清晰,但拍摄墙时就很模糊。原因是相机和镜头太小,只有这样才能在手机上安装其它的小元件。一款标准的拍照手机会装有一个用于相机拍摄的1兆或2兆像素且仅厚8毫米的硅芯片。能达到5兆像素的拍照手机即将问世,但是,位于加州门洛帕克的一家小公司InVisage期望能够超越这个数值,在体积或成本不增加的情况下,通过在制作工序中添加所谓量子点的微型晶体,使其达到出人意料的12兆。

    In a typical camera-phone, the image is focused by the lens onto a photosensitive silicon chip. Light striking this detector liberates electrons from some of the silicon atoms, producing an electrical signal that is converted by the chip's electronics into a picture. Silicon, however, is not the best material for sensing light. Its physical properties (its narrow bandgap, in physics parlance) mean that it sometimes releases electrons even though no light has fallen on it, resulting in a noisy image. On top of that, the way chips are made requires the incoming light to pass through circuitry that has been deposited on to the silicon, reducing the level of illumination.
    对标准的拍照手机而言,图像是由基于感光性硅芯片的镜头聚焦而得。当有入射光时,这种感光传感器就会使一些硅原子释放出电子,从而产生能由芯片的电子设备转化为图像的电信号。然而,硅并不是制作光传感器的最佳材料。其物理特性,即用物理学的说法是有局限的频带间隙,这意味着尽管没有入射光,它有时也会释放电子,导致图像噪点。首要问题是,这种材质的芯片要求入射光线须穿透置于硅芯片之上的电路,这样就会减弱光线的强度。

    InVisage's approach is to build the photodetector out of quantum dots on the surface of a chip, above the circuitry. A quantum dot is a semiconducting crystal just a few nanometres (billionths of a metre) across that can be engineered to absorb light of a particular colour by changing its size. The larger the dot, the redder the light it absorbs; the smaller, conversely, the bluer. Placing the quantum dots on top of the electronics means more pixels can be crammed into a given area and less incoming light is lost. Moreover, photodetectors based on quantum dots produce less noisy images, so the picture is sharper even if the number of pixels is not increased.
    InVisage的方法是将表面涂有量子点的芯片传感器置于电路之上。量子点是一种半导体晶体,仅有几纳米厚即十亿分之一米,它能通过改变粒子尺寸来吸收一种特定颜色的光。量子点越大,其吸收的光线越偏红;相反其越小,吸收的光线就越偏蓝。将这种量子点涂在电子设备上意味着每一个特定区域都能产生更高的像素,并且入射光线的散失会更少。此外,基于量子点的光传感器产生的图像噪点较少,所以即便不增加像素,图像也会更清晰。

    Edward Sargent, InVisage's chief technology officer and a professor of optoelectronics at the University of Toronto, says his firm's quantum dots are made of metal chalcogenides (which are a combination of metals such as zinc, indium, bismuth and lead with selenium, sulphur or tellurium). The dots are synthesised in a paint-like colloidal suspension which is then coated on to silicon wafers before they are cut up into chips.
    InVisage首席技术官,多伦多大学的光电子学教授萨金特•爱德华说,他所在的公司用金属硫化物制作量子点,即一种金属化合物,其包括锌、铟、铋,且最重要的是硒、硫磺或碲。这些量子点由一种类似涂料的胶状悬浮液合成,接着将其涂在未被切割成碎片的硅晶片上。

    In addition to using them in camera-phones, Dr Sargent is working on employing quantum dots to make solar cells. He thinks cells made this way will be comparable in cost to organic solar cells (themselves much cheaper than traditional silicon ones) while being at least twice as efficient. But commercialisation of quantum-dot solar cells is still a few years away. For the moment, he is concentrating on camera-phones.
    除了将量子点应用于拍照手机外,萨金特博士正研制将其用以制造太阳能电池。他认为用这种方法制造电池在成本方面可与有机太阳能电池一较高下,即前者较比传统硅电池而言更加廉价,且功效至少要高出原先的两倍。但是量子粒太阳能电池的商业化仍需待数年之久。而当前,他正全力以赴地研发拍照手机。

    To get the girl

    To get the girl
    为了女孩的依归


    Fighting off rivals may be responsible for masculine traits
    打败对手成就男性特质

    May 20th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

    Evolutionary forces at workWHEN two drunken men fight over a woman, alcohol and stupidity may not be the only things at work. Sadly, evolution may have shaped men to behave this way. Almost all of the traits considered to be masculine―big muscles, facial hair, square jaws, deep voices and a propensity to violence―evolved, it now seems, specifically for their usefulness in fighting off or intimidating other men, allowing the winner to get the girl.
    两个醉汉为了一个女人大打出手,也许不单单出自酒精和愚蠢,进化的力量不容抹杀。悲哀的是,很可能就是进化把男人塑造成这副样子的。大块肌肉、胡须、方下巴、低沉的声音以及暴力倾向,几乎所有被视为男性阳刚象征的特质都是进化来的,如今看来,这些特质在击败和吓退其它男人时格外有用,最终的赢家抱得美人归。


    Evolutionary forces at work
    进化的力量不容抹杀

    That, at least, is the contention of David Puts, an anthropologist at Pennsylvania State University, in an upcoming paper in Evolution and Human Behavior. Dr Puts is looking at how sexual selection gave rise to certain human traits. A trait is sexually selected if it evolved specifically to enhance mating success. They come in two main forms: weapons, such as an elk's horns are used to fight off competitors; and ornaments, like a peacock's tail, which are used to advertise genetic fitness to attract the opposite sex.

    至少,宾西法尼亚大学的人类学家戴维•普茨就持有这种观点,在他即将问世的论文《进化与人类行为》中可见一斑。普茨博士一直在探讨性选择如何提升人类的某些特质。如果一种特质进化成特别有助于交配成功,那么这种特质就是经过性选择的。它们表现出两种主要形式:一种是武器,象麋鹿的角,用来击退竞争对手;一种是装饰,象孔雀的尾屏,在在宣告吸引异性的优良基因。

    Researchers have tended to consider human sexual selection through the lens of the female's choice of her mate. But human males look a lot more like animals designed to battle with one another for access to females, says Dr Puts. On average, men have 40% more fat-free mass than women, which is similar to the difference in gorillas, a species in which males unquestionably compete with other males for exclusive sexual access to females. In species whose males do not fight for access to females, males are generally the same size as, or smaller than, females.

    研究人员倾向于透过女人对配偶的选择来细思人类的性选择。不过男人看起来更象动物多一些,动物为了雌性的使用权而与另一个同类决战,普茨断言。平均说来男人比女人多了40%以上的去脂体重,有种大猩猩也有类似的差异,而雄猩猩为了在性方面独占群内的所有雌猩猩,它毫不迟疑地赶走其它雄性。其它雄性不会冲冠一怒为红颜的大猩猩种类,通常雄性在体型上与雌性相仿,或者略小于雌性。

    The heavier brow and jaw of males might have developed to withstand blows from other males. (In prehistoric times, a broken jaw could have ended up being a fatal injury.) Heavy eyebrows, facial hair and deep voices all could serve to make a man more imposing to other men. Dr Puts does not dismiss mate selection outright. Women are attracted to some of the same traits that are good for dominating支配 other men because they signal that the man will sire sons who will also be successful at mating. But female choice probably is not the primary cause of the traits.

    雄性的宽额和下巴可能已练就经得起其它雄性的摔打。(史前时期,一个破裂的下巴可能会和致命伤划上等号。)浓眉、胡子和低沉的声音都能使一名男子比其他男子更显气概。普茨教授并未完全回避择偶的作用。有着上述特质的男子更容易支配其它男子,女子受其中某些特质的吸引,因为这些特质标志着这名男子在传宗接代方面也会更容易结出硕果。但是雌性的选择或许并非这些特质要成因。

    It is a disturbing idea to modern minds, harking back to old stereotypes about violent cavemen battling with clubs while a passive woman, fetching in furs, waits helplessly to see who will win her. But Dr Puts emphasises that evolutionary biology is not destiny. Regardless of our evolutionary past, in modern societies men and women freely choose their mates. However, understanding the evolutionary pressures that made men the way they are could help us better understand male violence, including murder, domestic abuse, gang violence and perhaps even warfare.

    用现代思想来匡衡,那真是一个令人不安的想法,想着回到老套的过去,充满暴力的山顶洞人手持棍棒打斗,而被动的女人围着皮草,无助地等在一边想知道自个究竟花落谁家。然而普茨博士强调进化生物学并非定数。撇开进化,现在社会的男男女女可以自由地选择配偶。然而,了解进化的压力迫使男性然其所然,有助于我们更好地了解男性暴力,包括凶杀、家暴、帮派暴力,甚或是战争。
     

    The hunk and the show-off do not always get the girl

    Sexual selection
    雌雄淘汰(性选择)

    The hunk and the show-off do not always get the girl
    拥有健壮的体魄或是华丽的外表并不总能占有美眉


    Males can take many routes to reproductive success
    雄性能够通过多种渠道成功进行繁殖


    Jun 3rd 2010 | From The Economist print edition




    "BE FRUITFUL and multiply, and fill the Earth." Taken as an evolutionary imperative, that seems straightforward enough. But in reality, identifying the best way of doing it can be difficult, whether for individuals seeking romance, or scientists studying reproductive behaviour.

    "要生养众多,遍满地面。(圣经创世纪中的话)"用它来诠释进化法则,这看起来已足够直白。但是在现实世界中,无论是个体为了追寻浪漫爱情,还是科学家们为了研究生殖行为,找寻一种正确的方式来实践却都困难重重。

    The scientists, at least, have made demonstrable progress. Two studies published this week―one by Jonathan Evans, of the University of Western Australia, the other by Tom Tregenza of the University of Exeter, in England―show that in fish and insects there is more than one path to mating success, and that the biggest, flashiest males do not always do better than their less assuming brethren.

    科学家们最终还是做出了有理论支持的进展。这周有发表了两份研究报告,一份来自于西奥大学的乔纳森•埃文斯,另一份来自于英格兰埃克赛特大学的汤姆•特里金莎。研究报告表明,在鱼类和昆虫中成功交配的途径不止一条,并且体型最大、外表最光彩夺目的雄性并不总是优于那些看起来差些的同类。

    In their quest for mates, some guppy males are show-offs. They conduct a decorous courtship in which they parade before their chosen belles. If a show-off's performance is sufficiently intense, his colour dramatic enough and his fins suitably ornamental, the female will welcome his advances―which explains the evolution of lavish tail fins and vivid, iridescent colouration. Other guppies, though, cannot be bothered with all this flummery. Instead, they go in for a copulatory ambush known as "sneaking".

    一些雄性的孔雀鱼在追求伴侣时更注重外表。他们高雅地求爱,在中意的佳人面前游来游去。若这种炫耀的表演足够充满激情,雄鱼的颜色足够惹人注目,并且他的鱼鳍足够有吸引力,那么雌鱼便会欣然接受雄鱼接下来的行动。这些行为解释了为什么雄鱼会进化出过大的、有着鲜亮的彩虹般色彩的尾鳍。尽管如此,却有一些雄孔雀鱼懒得去做这种虚假的恭维,他们选择使用一种称作"偷袭"的伺机交配行为取而代之。

    That is great for the sneak. Why, though, allow yourself to be ambushed if you are a female? Why mate with a second-class beau who cannot be bothered to bring you the fishy equivalent of roses and diamonds? The answer, as Dr Evans shows in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, is that sneaks are first-class in one particular department. Their sperm are much stronger swimmers than those of the show-offs. The energy that male fish expend on courtship comes at the expense of their semen.

    这对偷袭者来说确实很棒。尽管如此,为何作为雌雄却认可自己被伺机交配呢?又为何要和那些懒得为你献上那些对鱼来说视作玫瑰与钻石的"爱情信物"的二等王子配对呢?埃文斯博士已在皇家学会学报中作出解释,原因在于从某种特殊的角度来看待的话偷袭者最为优秀。这些偷袭者的精子比那些花花公子们的游得更好。雄鱼花费在求爱行为上的能量来自于那些本来应该用于精液的部分。

    For guppies, having vigorous sperm is valuable because females conduct multiple trysts. Sperm from several males must therefore compete to fertilise an egg. Dr Evans's research suggests that male guppies invest selectively in one of two different stages of the sexual competition. Some try to outcourt other males for access to females. Others try to outrace their rivals' sperm. The two strategies remain in equilibrium because, if one became rarer compared with the other, its practitioners would enjoy more individual success, passing their genes on preferentially and thus restoring the balance. Assuming, of course, that a preference for one strategy rather than another is inherited.

    对于孔雀鱼来说,由于雌鱼会进行多次配对约会,来自不同雄鱼的精子在使卵子受精时必须要互相竞争,拥有充满活力的精子就显得很有价值。埃文斯博士的研究表明,雄性孔雀鱼有选择性地投入到两种不同的交配权争夺行为中的一种。一些尝试依靠求爱打败别的雄性来得到拥有雌鱼的机会。另一些则尝试依靠自己的精子比其他竞争对手的精子游得更快。这两种策略保持着相对平衡,原因如下,如果一种策略的使用相对少于另一种的话,那么对于使用这种策略的雄鱼个体就会享有更高的成功几率,进而优先地把自己的基因传递给下一代,从而使得两种策略间的平衡得以恢复。当然,前提是雄鱼对于繁殖策略的选择可以遗传。

    So the last part of Dr Evans's study was to test whether the two strategies are, indeed, inherited. He found that they are. The sons of fertile, sneaky fathers do share these paternal traits, while sons of attractive fathers are equally appealing, but have similarly impoverished ejaculate.

    这样,埃文斯博士的研究最后要做的,就是要验证这两种繁殖策略是否真的在实际上可以遗传。他发现结果是肯定的。具有突袭交配特性的雄鱼的雄性后代确实也具有这样的特性。而那些依靠具有吸引力的外表从而得到交配权的雄鱼的雄性后代也具有一样的吸引力以及和父代相似的退化了的射精能力。

    The hunk and the troubadour
    壮汉和游吟诗人


    Dr Tregenza's study, published in Science, illuminates the similarly diverse mating strategies of crickets. Like guppies, male crickets compete for female favour―though by virtuoso chirping, rather than visual displays. But because previous systematic knowledge of cricket behaviour has come from studies done in the laboratory (studies, indeed, like Dr Evans's), some researchers have questioned whether this sort of behaviour actually contributes to reproductive success in the wild.

    发表在《自然》杂志上的特里金莎博士的研究阐述说蟋蟀在繁殖中也会类似地采用不同的策略。像孔雀鱼一样,雄性蟋蟀也要争夺雌性的青睐,虽然他们使用的是音乐大师般地动听啁啾,而不是视觉盛宴。由于先前的对于蟋蟀的系统的认知来自于实验室内的研究(确实是和埃文斯博士类似的研究),一些研究者对于这类行为是否也同样在野生蟋蟀的成功繁殖中起到作用有着疑问。

    To address that point, Dr Tregenza and his colleagues exposed a group of wild crickets to the Big Brother treatment. They trained video cameras on to 64 cricket burrows. They then captured, marked, released and tracked hundreds of crickets, and used the footage from the cameras to observe courtship, copulation, cohabitation and fights for dominance.

    为澄清上述疑问,特里金莎博士和他的同事把一组野生蟋蟀用于"老大哥"试验(即一种时刻不干扰性监控)。为此,他们将摄像机对准64个蟋蟀洞穴。然后他们把捕来的上百的蟋蟀做上标记后,释放并追踪。研究小组用摄像机捕捉到的镜头来观察野生蟋蟀的求爱,交配,同居以及对于支配地位的争夺等行为。

    In a heroic act of enlightened voyeurism, Dr Tregenza's colleague Rolando Rodríguez-Muñoz watched and analysed the resulting epic―all 250,000 hours of it. (He had the tapes on fast-forward and scanned 16 monitors at a time, looking for signs of movement that might indicate something interesting was going on.) By combining this video trove with data about each specimen's physical characteristics, genetics and offspring, the team then identified those traits that contribute to crickets' mating and reproductive success in the wild.

    秉承一种英雄般的文明的性爱偷窥精神,特里金莎的同事,罗兰多•罗德里格斯•穆尼奥斯观察并分析了试验中得来的总共长达25万个小时的蟋蟀史诗。(他使用快进来观看录像带,并同时查看16个监视器的内容,来搜寻那些可能预示着蟋蟀正在进行研究小组感兴趣的活动的特征动作。)把这些录像中有价值的信息和那些来自于每一个试验样本的物理特征、基因以及后代的数据结合起来,研究小组得以识别出那些在野生蟋蟀的交配和成功繁殖后代中起到作用的特性。



    Oh maiden fair, list to my lay
    窈窕淑女,寤寐求之


    Their results did indeed reinforce the established beauty standards for male crickets―"be large and be loud"―but with a twist. What they actually found was, "be large or be loud". Small males, in other words, could overcome the handicap of their stature and win mates through prodigious chirping. Larger males, by contrast, gained no additional mates through song. Like the guppies, then, different strokes were best for different folks. Moreover, being a dominant male brought no reproductive advantage. Subordinates sired the same number of offspring as dominants―a fact the researchers were able to confirm by genetic analysis.

    试验结果彻彻底底地支持了已有的对于雄性蟋蟀的审美标准――"不但身材魁梧而且叫声响亮"――但是有细微差别。他们实际上发现的是,"要么身材魁梧,要么叫声响亮"。换句话说,体型瘦小的雄性可以依靠非凡响亮的鸣叫来弥补身材的不足之处,从而赢得伴侣。对比参照表明,身材魁梧的雄性并不会依靠鸣叫而获得额外的异性。这点和孔雀鱼相似,真是萝卜青菜,各有所爱。除此之外,成为具有统治地位的雄性在繁殖方面并没有优势。下等蟋蟀繁殖的后代并不比拥有统治地位的蟋蟀少――分析研究人员能够依靠基因分析来证实这一事实。

    Once again, it looks as though two male strategies may be in equilibrium: the hunk and the troubadour, perhaps. What is clear from both studies, though, is that no matter how hard males compete, they will always be outwitted by the wiliest, most subversive competitors of all: females.

    在这次试验中,不管是走壮汉路线还是走游吟诗人路线,两种雄性的求偶策略看上去也许再次处于相对平衡之中。尽管如此,两个试验皆清楚的表明了一个事实,那就是无论雄性竞争得如何激烈,他们最终都会被世上最狡猾的、最具有颠覆性的对手――雌性女王――以智取胜。
     

    The unrepentant chocolatier

    The unrepentant chocolatier
    不思悔改的巧克力制造商

    Oct 29th 2009 | LAUSANNE AND VEVEY
    From The Economist print edition


    The world's biggest food company is betting on an emerging class of health and nutrition products to spur its growth. But risks abound
    世界头号食品公司将宝压在健康营养产品,借助这些产品的发展以促进公司壮大。然而,危机四伏




    IT IS a curious blend of kitchen and laboratory. From one room wafts the bittersweet smell of chocolate being gently heated and stirred by chocolatiers. Around the corner it is all science. A double row of cubicles contains human guinea pigs who sniff and taste from little tubs, scoring each on criteria such as sweetness or bitterness to produce complex flavour charts. Down the corridor, women in comfortable chairs talk about how chocolate makes them feel. Cameras and microphones record their most minute gestures for the scrutiny of psychologists and anthropologists

    这种厨房与实验室的结合着实新奇。制造商将巧克力微微加热,使其散发出甜中带苦的口味。事情虽小确是科学。两排小隔间的实验对象嗅闻、品尝小盒中的食物,并根据甜、苦等标准打分,制造商据此创造复杂的口味系列。穿过走廊,很多女士坐在舒服的座椅上,描述吃巧克力的感觉。她们每一个细微的动作都被摄像机和麦克风记录下来,稍后心理学家和人类学家将对这些数据进行仔细分析。

    This is the science behind Nestlé's 110-year-old chocolate factory next door, which each morning exhales the aroma of roasting almonds and cocoa beans over Broc, a chocolate-box-perfect Swiss village where even the weeds in an overgrown lot seem orderly. It is in these laboratories, where a pinch of art is mixed with SFr25m ($23.6m) of technology, that new chocolate recipes are devised. At another Nestlé research centre in Lausanne, meanwhile, researchers have been working out how chocolate affects metabolism and the behaviour of gut microbes―in other words, analysing chocolate as a pharmaceutical product, rather than a treat

    这就是雀巢110年巧克力工厂的科学之道。每天早上布罗克村都飘散出烘烤杏仁和可可豆的芳香气息。布罗克是瑞士的巧克力之乡。在这,即使是空地上蔓延生长的杂草似乎也井然有序。就是在这些实验室里诞生了新的巧克力配方。(也是在这里有少数艺术与身价2500万瑞士法郎约合2360万英镑的技术相结合)。与此同时,在雀巢的另一家研发中心洛桑市,研究者们一致在研究巧克力如何影响新陈代谢和肠道微生物行为。换言之,把巧克力当做药物来分析,而不是食品。

    Investment in this kind of research may seem indulgent, particularly in a recession. But it exemplifies Nestlé's strategy for future growth. Although the company is best known for chocolate, ice-cream and sugary snacks, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the firm's chairman, and Paul Bulcke, its chief executive, hope to transform the food company into the world's leading health, nutrition and "wellness" firm. It is tempting to dismiss this as a mere marketing stunt―an effort to make people feel better about eating things they really shouldn't. Yet there is a sound commercial logic behind Nestlé's shift towards health and nutrition.

    在这种研究上投入资金似乎是败家之举,尤其是在经济萧条时期。然而,这是雀巢为促进未来成长的战略缩影。虽然雀巢是以巧克力、冰激凌、甜食著称,但是董事长Peter Brabeck-Letmathe和执行官Paul Bulcke希望把公司从食品企业转为世界顶级保健、营养和"健康"公司。人们很容易将此举理解为营销的愚蠢行为(努力让消费者觉得吃不应该吃的食品没什么大不了的)。然而,在雀巢转型成为保健、营养型公司的背后有一套行之有效的商业逻辑



    Sales of foodstuffs that have been intentionally modified and improved by manufacturers to provide claimed health benefits―known as "functional foods"―are, in many cases, growing far more quickly than foods sales as a whole. Sales of functional foods in western Europe grew by 10.2% a year between 2004 and 2007, whereas sales of packaged food grew by 6.3% a year over that period (see chart 1), according to Euromonitor, a market-research firm. Some categories are growing even faster. In America, sales of functional foods that promote "gut health", for example, grew by an average of 15.8% a year between 2002 and 2007, according to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report, compared with overall food-sales growth of 2.9% a year, according to Datamonitor (see chart 2). The PricewaterhouseCoopers report predicts that the global market for functional foods will grow in value from $78 billion in 2007 to $128 billion in 2013.

    "功能性食品"即经过制造商刻意修改和改进、宣传有益健康的食物。这类食品的销售额在大部分情况下增速远远快于其他食品的整体销售增速。市场调研公司欧睿的调查显示,功能性食品在西欧的销售额在2004至2007年期间保持着每年10.2%的增速,而包装类食品在同期的增速为每年6.3%(见图一)。有些种类的增速甚至更快。例如,普华永道最近的一份报告显示,促进"肠道健康"的功能性食品在美销售额在2002年至2007年的年平均增速为15.8%,而欧睿的调查显示同期美国食品的总体销售额增速只有2.9%。普华永道在报告中还预测功能性食品的全球市场将从2007年的78亿美元扩大到2013年的1280亿美元。



    Looking further ahead, Nestlé sees great potential in the idea of "personalised" nutrition. Just as drugs companies have long talked of devising drugs that take account of genetic variations between people, the firm wants to do the same with food. That is why it is investing in the nascent fields of metabolomics and proteomics with the aim of providing foods, diets, devices and even services for particular subgroups of the population. It forecasts that by 2017, global sales of nutrition for "specific need states" could reach $100 billion. Existing examples include Musashi whey-protein supplements and PowerBar snacks for athletes; Sondalis and Nutren Glytrol liquid diets for diabetics; and Optifast powders and shakes for dieters.

    雀巢看到在未来"个性化"营养的潜力巨大,医药公司一直在谈论的、根据个体基因的不同改造药物的做法,而雀巢打算在食物上采也取同样做法。这就是该公司在代谢学和蛋白质组学的新生领域投资的原因,其目的在于通过这项研究,雀巢能够为特定人群提供特定的食物、节食食品、器具甚至是特定的服务。该公司预计到2017年,能够达到"特定需求状态"的营养食品的销量将达到1000亿美元。目前这类食品包括Musashi乳清蛋白补充剂、运动员专用PowerBar点心、糖尿病人专用的Sondalis 和 Nutren Glytrol流食以及为节食人群设计的Optifast牌奶粉和奶昔。  

    Switching to a new diet
    转做新型食品

    This shift in emphasis towards health and nutrition will, Nestlé hopes, transform it from a purveyor of low-margin, commoditised foodstuffs into a provider of high-margin products and services. (It already owns Jenny Craig, a chain of American weight-loss centres, which it is now expanding globally.) The firm needs new sources of growth. Sales of bottled water, which are about 10% of its business, are falling in rich countries because of the recession. They may yet bounce back, but analysts fret that bottled water, which is now firmly in the sights of environmental groups, may go the way of the fur trade.

    雀巢希望通过这次重点向保健和营养的方向转型能够把公司从一个售卖利低廉食品的公司转型为高利润产品和服务的供应商。(雀巢已经将美国减肥中心Jenny Craig收归旗下,该公司目前正在全球扩张。)雀巢需要新的增长点。瓶装水的销量目前占整个销售业务的10%,但是由于经济衰退这一数字在发达国家正在下降。销售额可能会回升,但是分析人士担心由于瓶装水现在被环保组织紧紧盯上了,最后可能会重蹈裘皮贸易的覆辙。

    Nestlé also seems to be losing market share in other products, though company officials dispute the assertion. Pablo Zuanic, an analyst at JPMorgan, reckons that in the second quarter of 2009, 44% of Nestlé's product lines lost market share in America, and none of its products gained market share there, according to surveys of retail-data by ACNielsen, a market-research firm. Scepticism about Nestlé's prospects can also been seen in its share price: its shares trade at a lower multiple of earnings than those of its main European competitors. One reason is that investors are concerned that it may invest some or all of the SFr30 billion it is likely to receive next year from selling its share in Alcon, an eye-care firm, in businesses that are less profitable than the ones it already has.

    似乎雀巢其他产品的市场份额页在下降,虽然公司高管对此予以否认。摩根大通的分析师Pablo Zuanic表示,根据市场调研公司ACNielsen,的零售数据显示2009年二季度44%的雀巢产品线在美国的市场占有率下降,所有产品的市场占有量无一上升。人们对雀巢未来的担忧在股价上便可见一斑:股票盈利低于其主要欧洲竞争对手数倍。原因之一是投资者担心明年雀巢可能将抛售Alcon公司(眼部护理公司)的股份收益(300亿瑞士法郎)部分或全部投资到比目前利润更低的业务上。

    Investors are also worried that Nestlé has become too large and unwieldy. The firm has 30 product lines that each generate more than SFr1 billion in annual sales, from Nescafé coffee and Nesquik milk to Purina pet food and Pure Life, a bottled water that is sometimes made from stuff that comes out of taps, rather than out of the ground. Consumers have been trading down to cheaper, unbranded foods in recent years, a trend that accelerated in the recession, potentially undermining the value of owning big brands.

    投资者还担心雀巢已经变得过于巨大而笨重不堪。该公司目前有20条生产线,每条生产线每年的销售额都在10亿瑞士法郎之上。其中包括雀巢咖啡、雀巢巧伴伴、Purina宠物食品和纯净生命(有时用自来水而非地下水灌装的瓶装水)。几年来,消费者开始减少消费,购买价格更加低廉,无品牌的食品。这一趋势由于经济衰退而愈演愈烈,导致大品牌的价值悄然缩水。

    So the company has seized upon evidence that incorporating healthier ingredients into its products could help it get its sales moving in rich countries again, and win over hearts and minds in emerging markets, too. These ingredients include live bacteria in yogurt, extra calcium of a form that is more easily absorbed by children's bodies, and sterols (a kind of plant fat) that reduce blood cholesterol.

    所以雀巢指望在产品中添加保健成分能够帮助该公司在发达国家的销量能够再次上升,同时赢得新兴市场消费者的青睐。这些保健成分包括酸奶益生菌、儿童更易吸收的钙以及降低血液胆固醇的固醇(一种植物脂肪)

    A study by Harvard Business School found that between 2004 and 2007, sales of Nestlé's products containing such "functional" ingredients increased by 23.7% a year, compared with growth of 6.2% a year for its ordinary foods. Sales of Nestlé's functional foods grew by 20% in 2008. And on October 22nd the company announced that in the difficult year to September 2009, in which the underlying growth rate (stripping out price changes and currency movements) across its food and beverage product lines was 0.7%, functional foods still managed to eke out growth of 4%.

    哈佛商学院的研究显示2004年到2007年期间雀巢公司旗下产品含有"功能性"成分的产品销量的年增长率为23.7%,而普通食品的增长率只有6.2%。2008年功能食品的增长率为20%。10月22日雀巢公司宣布从经济危机开始到2009年9月该公司所有食品和饮料生产线的实际增长率(除去价格变动和资本流通因素)为0.7%,而功能食品仍然实现了4%的增长率。

    Other companies are benefiting from the same trend. Results released on September 23rd by Danone, a French diary and yogurt company, showed that its bestselling yogurts are those with live bacteria that are said to strengthen immunity or ease constipation. Even drugs companies are eyeing this new market. In March the chairman of Sanofi-Aventis, a French drug firm, mused about acquiring food and nutrition firms as a way to pursue growth.

    其他公司也从这一趋势中受益。法国乳品和酸奶公司Danone于9月23日发布的结果显示含有益生菌能够增强免疫力或缓解便秘的酸奶最畅销。甚至连医药公司都盯上了这块新市场。法国医药公司Sanofi-Aventis的总裁三月份曾表示意欲兼并食品和营养企业以促进公司增长

    Few companies, however, are spending the sort of money that Nestlé is to develop foods that are tailored to improve health. Even so, Mr Brabeck-Letmathe's grand plan to reinvent his company must navigate several dangers. Does it make sense to invest in costly, long-term research for a market that may not materialise? Another risk is that a sceptical public will not be convinced by Nestlé's grand health claims, prompting a backlash强烈反对集体反对 from the public or activists. There is also a danger that the new strategy might damage the firm's blockbuster已经成功的 legacy brands, such as Nescafé, which have taken decades to build.

    然而,鲜有公司效仿雀巢的做法投资开发能够改善健康的食品。尽管如此,Brabeck-Letmathe先生重新打造公司的庞大计划也存在着诸多危险因素。耗费巨资长期研究一个可能不会成型的市场是否有意义?另一个危险因素是雀巢产品保健功效的宣传可能无法打消公众的疑虑,反而招致公众或激进分子的强烈反对。新战略可能对也已成功的传统品牌造成损害,例如雀巢咖啡,这个牌子耗费了数十年才建立起来。

    Profit or peril?

    利润还是危险?

    Start with the cost of research. If Nestlé were content to battle it out with Kraft, the world's second-largest food firm, in the business of just selling food, then its outlay on research and development (R&D) would be difficult to justify. But Mr Brabeck-Letmathe saw a decade ago that the food industry was becoming a commoditised grind with diminishing margins and little scope for disruptive innovation. So he began pushing Nestlé to develop functional foods with higher profit margins, and he increased spending accordingly. In 2008 Nestlé spent just under SFr2 billion on R&D, a sum that has more than doubled since 1998. At about 2% of sales, this is considerably more than rivals are spending: in 2007 Danone spent about 1% of its sales on R&D, and Kraft spent about 1.2%.

    首先是研究费用。如果雀巢满足于和卡夫(世界第二大食品公司)在产品销售领域的竞争,则该公司的研究费用难以估算。但是早在十年前Brabeck-Letmathe先生就意识到食品行业的利润在下降,产品创新的空间有限。所以,他开始将公司转向生产利润丰厚的功能食品,并相应增加其相关投入。雀巢2008年的研究费用为将近20亿瑞士法郎,这一数字是1998年以来的2倍,大约是销售额的2%,相对于竞争对手来说,这个数字相当可观:Danone2007年的研究费用为其销售额的1%,卡夫大概是1.2%。

    Richard Laube, the head of Nestlé's nutrition business and a former pharmaceuticals executive, describes a "pipeline" of some 75 research projects. Borrowing terminology from the drugs industry seems appropriate, given the time required to develop these new products. Unlike the quick development cycles usually seen in fast-moving consumer goods, which typically take one to two years, products in Nestlé's nutrition pipeline may take four to six years to develop.

    之前是医药公司执行官,现在雀巢营养业务的负责人的Richard Laube对大约75个研究项目"渠道"进行了描述。考虑到开发这些产品的时间,从医药行业借用专业术语似无不妥。与快速消费品的研发周期只有1至2年不同,雀巢营养渠道产品可能需要4至6年方可成功。

    Mr Laube acknowledges that the pursuit of functional foods means that R&D expenditure must go up, not least because regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are taking a tougher line towards them. In October, America's Food and Drug Administration warned that it was reviewing health claims made by food companies; it plans to announce stricter guidelines soon. The European Commission has forged ahead with strict rules on nutrition claims, and is in the process of tightening up the claims allowed on health grounds too. Companies wishing to make claims related to disease ("reduces blood pressure", "cuts risk of heart attacks", and so on) will have to provide solid scientific evidence to back them up. That takes time and money.

    Laube先生表示研发功能食品意味着必须增加研究费用,很大程度上时因为欧美两边的管理者都对功能食品实施更加严格的规定。美国食品药品监督局10月份发出警告,该组织正在检查食品公司的保健功效是否属实,并计划很快出台更加严格的指导方针。欧洲委员会已经先行一步,制订了严格条例,规范营养功效的真实性。该委员会正着手采取更加严格的规定。对于与疾病有关的功效必须提出确凿的科学依据予以支持,既耗时间又耗经费。

    But it will be worthwhile if consumers prove willing, as they seem to be, to pay more for products with health benefits. Another benefit to such long-term research, observes Mr Laube, is that it tends to produce the sorts of innovations that pay dividends for longer than the minor, fleeting improvements made to consumer goods. He points to the formulas for whey protein, used in Nestlé's PowerBar range, and for hypoallergenic baby food. In both cases consumers continue to pay premium prices for these products a decade after their initial introduction.

    如果消费者愿意(消费者似乎愿意)花更多钱购买具有健康功效的产品,则之前的努力便是值得的。Laube认为这种长期研究的另一个好处是更容易产生长期红利的创新科技,并完善了消费者产品。他指的是用于雀巢PowerBar系列和低过敏性婴儿食品的乳清蛋白。在以上两种情况下,消费者在产品打入市场10年之后仍然愿意继续花费高额费用购买这些产品。

    Nestlé is used to playing a long game. Take Nespresso, an almost instant espresso that is made by machine from a little capsule of coffee. Nestlé started working on the technology in 1970 and filed its first patent in 1976. It was another decade before it was ready to start selling Nespresso pods and machines. Thereafter the business lost money for a decade. But now it is one of Nestlé's fastest-growing products. Sales have been increasing by 30% a year (even though Nespresso is a premium brand) and are expected to reach nearly SFr3 billion this year. Consumers are, presumably, making coffee at home and trading down from more expensive coffees sold by the likes of Starbucks. "It took off very, very slowly," says Mr Bulcke. "It was 20 years of conviction that got us there."

    雀巢惯常打持久战。以机器加工成小袋的雀巢速溶咖啡为例。这项技术始于1970年并于1976年申请了第一个专利。而开始销售这种速溶咖啡和和机器又花费了十年的时间。此后,这项业务一直处于亏损状态长达10年之久,然而现在却是雀巢增长速度最快的业务之一。销售额的年增速在30%。(虽然速溶咖啡是较高端的品品牌)。今年的销售额有望达到将近30亿瑞士法郎。消费者很可能在家自制咖啡,像星巴克这种的昂贵咖啡销量便走下坡路了。"这一过程相当缓慢,大概要花费20年时间,才能看到效果。" Bulcke先生如是说。

    The tighter regulatory outlook for functional foods could, in fact, benefit Nestlé because few of its rivals have the deep pockets necessary to invest in such research. The Swiss firm could end up in a strong position―provided, that is, it can develop functional foods with genuine benefits that consumers are willing to pay for. "The more science wins, the stronger Nestlé's position," reckons Peter Killing of IMD, a Swiss business school.

    功能食品的规定越来越严格,这样的监管前景对于雀巢实际上是有利的。因为鲜有竞争对手有如此雄厚的经济实力进行这种研究。而雀巢这家瑞士公司最后很可能占据市场高位,只要其生产的功能真的有效,消费者买张即可。"科技月发达,雀巢的地位越稳固"瑞士商学院发展学院的Peter Killing如是说。

    Another risk to Nestlé's strategy is that of overreach, arising from two particular vulnerabilities. One is the legacy of the firm's past scandals involving the sale of milk powder in poor countries, which led to painful boycotts. The other involves the food industry's experience of a backlash against genetically modified (GM) crops.

    雀巢战略的另一个潜在风险是过度扩张的危险,源于两个致命的弱势:一个是公司过往丑闻造成不良影响。其中包括在穷国销售奶粉导致当地居民联合抵制,造成的影响颇著。另一个问题是民众对转基因食物的抵触。

    "Breastfeeding is best! We will salute and say this every day, but the world won't believe us," laments Mr Laube, describing the lingering suspicions harboured by some about the company's behaviour in the developing world. The firm's founder developed its trademark milk substitute not to replace mother's milk, which health experts agree is the best food for babies, but to feed only those newborns who cannot be breast-fed safely. This is not company propaganda: the World Health Organisation confirms that "there will always be a small number of infants who have to be fed on breast-milk substitutes." But the firm was caught in Africa and elsewhere promoting its milk powders so aggressively that they did, in fact, replace mother's milk inappropriately―hurting the health of babies and, when the powder was mixed with unsafe water or in too weak a dose, leading to malnourishment or death. The firm insists it has mended its ways.

    Laube先生在描述公司在发展中国家的不良作为而遗留的长期不信任时悲叹道:"母乳喂养是最理想的。我们每天都在宣传这个。但是没人相信我们。"雀巢研制的母乳替代奶粉并非意欲替代母乳。母乳是健康专家公认的喂养儿童最好的食品。只有那些母乳喂养导致危险的儿童才需要母乳替代奶粉。"有一部分婴儿不能母乳喂养,只能和母乳替代奶"这是世界卫生组织证实的事实,并非雀巢的宣传噱头。但是在非洲和其他地方,雀巢销售奶粉的力度过大,实际上取代了母乳的地位,有损儿童健康。当用不安全的水冲奶粉或剂量太少将导致婴儿营养不良或死亡。雀巢表示已经在尽力补救了。

    Nestlé's deep reach in the developing world goes back decades and gives it a head start over most of its rich-world competitors when it comes to exploiting growth. Its early embrace of globalisation had less to do with planning than with the coincidence of being based in a small country and selling a highly tradable commodity. As early as 1919 Nestlé's condensed-milk business had exhausted the supply of milk from local farmers, forcing it to open factories in Australia, England, Germany and Norway. Soon afterwards it bought the leading 27 condensed-milk factories in America, prompting this newspaper to note that year that Nestlé "is no longer a Swiss milk company; it is a very powerful international investment trust."

    雀巢在发展中国家的深厚基础源自几十年前。该公司在起跑线上就领先于大多数发达国家的竞争对手。雀巢早期融入全球化并非计划使然,而是出于巧合:恰巧在一个小国家,售卖相当受欢迎的商品。早在1919年,雀巢浓缩奶百年消耗了本国农民生产的所有牛奶。迫于情势,雀巢在澳大利亚、英国、德国、挪威建立了分厂。此后不久,又并购了美国27家浓缩奶工厂。这不禁让本报想起当年雀巢"不再是瑞士的奶业公司";而是一个强大的国际投资信托公司。

    Today less than 2% of Nestlé's sales are in its home market, compared with 60% of Kraft's. Enforced globalisation taught Nestlé far earlier than its rivals just how markedly tastes differ across the world. Its trademark line of Nescafé instant coffees, for instance, comes in a bewildering array of more than 500 flavours. The legacy of its powdered-milk scandals, however, is that Nestlé actions in poor countries are scrutinised like those of few others. That means any grand new effort to rebrand the firm's offerings as "healthy" will face scepticism, in emerging markets in particular.

    今日的销售额只占总额的不到2%,而华夫则为60%。强大的全球化早早教会了雀巢研制独特口味方可行销世界的道理。其他竞争对手则后知后觉。例如雀巢速溶咖啡的产品线有多个繁杂的系列,500多个不同的口味。然而,奶粉丑闻的影响犹在,所以雀巢在贫穷国家的各种行动都受到严密的监督,享受如此"如荣"的企业寥寥无几。这就意味着任何重塑公司"健康"形象的举动都会受到质疑,在新兴市场尤其如此。

    Nestlé's strategy this time round is to work more closely with health authorities across the world. Its aim is to localise "wellness" in much the way it has adapted its coffees to various markets. It is, for instance, greatly expanding its efforts to add essential micronutrients―ranging from iodine and iron to vitamin A and zinc―to its basic foodstuffs. Some 2 billion people suffer from deficiencies of such vitamins and minerals, with impacts ranging from blindness to premature death. The firm had dismissed infant cereal as a niche product, but now its researchers are using that product as a "carrier" for probiotics and vitamins for children. It is also developing cheap, single-serving packets of nutrient-rich food for the very poor, another market it had previously stayed out of. Mr Laube says the defensiveness of the past is gone: "Now we have a noble cause.

    这次雀巢的策略是与健康机构紧密合作,目的是沿用咖啡适应各地市场的方式将"健康"本地化。例如,雀巢正在努力将微量元素(从碘、铁道到他命A和锌)加入普通的食品当中。大约有20亿民众正在承受维他命和矿物质缺乏带来的病痛,从失明到早衰。雀巢曾经把婴儿谷物产品当做滞销产品,但是现在的研究人员却把这种产品当做为婴儿补充益生菌和维他命的"载体",同时也在开发价格低廉,营养丰富一次性包装食品。这个市场是雀巢不曾染指之地。Laube先生说过去保守的时代已经过去了:"现在我们做的是崇高的事业"



    That may help in the poor world, but could Europe's hysteria over Frankenfoods (as the British media dubbed GM foods) also stand in the way of Nestlé's wellness products, if they are perceived to involve too much scientific meddling? The firm is treading carefully. Peter van Bladeren, head of Nestlé's main research centre in Lausanne, insists its functional foods will "only improve nature" by adding healthy ingredients: "no weird stuff". Unlike GM crops, which mainly benefit farmers, functional foods are intended to provide benefits to consumers. And the need to produce solid evidence of benefit to satisfy regulators should reassure shoppers, says Eric Scher of Sanford Bernstein, a research firm.

    那也许能够帮助贫穷世界,但是如果人们认为雀巢产品的科技干涉过多,欧洲人对转基因食物的过度热情会妨碍雀巢保健食品的发展吗?雀巢正在小心前行。位于Lausanne的雀巢总研究中心的负责人Peter van Bladeren坚持认为功能产品只有通过增加健康元素才能改善自然:没有古怪的东西。转基因植物主要对农民有利,而功能食品则对消费者有利。研究公司Sanford Bernstein的Eric Scher表示:必须出具确凿的证据才能达到管理者的要求,令消费者放心。

    Stretching the brand

    Finally, there is a risk that Nestlé's new strategy could damage the firm's blockbuster brands, which have taken decades to establish. This could happen in several ways. If some of the firm's functional foods fail to pass muster with the regulators or, worse, turn out to cause harm rather than do good, then consumers could turn against all its products, even those that make no health claims at all. That could hurt, because most of its revenues will still come from selling treats like chocolate, ice-cream, coffee and flavoured milk.

    最后,雀巢的新战略可能会损害耗费数十年建立起来的畅销品牌。有可能以几种方式呈现。如果雀巢的功能食品有几项未能通过审核,或者更糟,被证明对人体有害而不是有益。如果真是如此,消费者会抵制雀巢旗下的所有产品,非功能性产品也不能幸免。雀巢可能因此蒙受重创,因为雀巢的利润主要来源于像巧克力、咖啡和各种口味的牛奶等甜品的销售。

    That points to导致 another potential snag问题困难. If a company known for selling indulgence wants to reinvent itself to symbolise wellness, does that not send mixed messages to the consumer? Mr Bulcke insists that there is no contradiction, and that taste will always trump nutritional benefits in the development of new products. Carmakers, after all, see no problem with marketing new cars on the basis that they produce fewer greenhouse-gas emissions without compromising on performance.

    这又可能引发另一个问题。如果一个以推销放纵著称的公司将自己重塑为推销健康的公司,消费者就不会收到好坏混合的信息吗?Bulcke先生坚持认为毫无自相矛盾之处,在开发新产品的过程中口味将取代营养功效的地位。毕竟,汽车制造商只要能够研制出温室气体排放量低却不影响表现的轿车就不会在推广新车的时候遇到问题。



    Mr Brabeck-Letmathe is convinced that all of Nestlé's brands can be made to fit into the wellness strategy. "You don't have to stretch," he insists, "if the discipline of every product is to be healthier." Every product must undergo what he calls a "sixty-forty-plus" analysis: at least 60% of those tasting it must prefer it to a rival product or the one it is replacing, and it must also be more nutritious. The company has, for instance, produced a new way of churning its ice-cream that produces much smaller ice crystals than the usual method. As a result it can still taste creamy even though it has half the fat.
    Brabeck-Letmathe先生坚信雀巢所有品牌的产品都可以通过调整减刑健康战略。他坚持认为"如果每个产品的标准越来越健康,你就没必要调整。"每个产品都必须经过他所谓的"六十、四十、加"分析:至少有60%的人在品尝之后钟爱这款产品,而非竞争对手的产品或是这款产品正在取代的竞争对手的产品,而且这款产品必须更加富有营养。例如,雀巢已经研发出一种新型的生产冰激凌的方法,优点在于比传统方法相比产生的更小的冰晶。而且虽然脂肪含量只有传统冰激凌的一半,但是口味依旧甜美。

    Critics question, however, whether, in aggregate, Nestlé can deliver on its ambitious health and wellness promises. "The goals of food companies and the goals of public health are fundamentally different," says Marion Nestle (no relation), a nutrition expert at New York University who is a noted critic of big food firms. "There is very little evidence that eating these things makes people healthier. If you want to do something for your health, you don't eat as much, and you don't eat processed food."
    然而,批评家怀疑雀巢是否能够大体实现其雄心勃勃宣扬地保健和健康功效。"食品公司和公共健康机构的目标大相径庭。实用这些食品有益人体健康基本是不可靠的。若要健康,则少食,并且不吃加工食品"纽约大学营养学家、以批评大型食品公司著称的Marion Nestle(与雀巢无关)如是说。

    That might indeed be healthier―but for many, perhaps, less pleasurable too. Mr Brabeck-Letmathe, a former ice-cream salesman from Austria, is unrepentant. Every single morning, he says, he enjoys dark chocolate and coffee made by Nestlé: "We don't have to be ashamed."

    这样也许确实更加健康,但是对于许多人来说,也许吃饭就变得无趣了。从前是澳大利亚冰激凌销售人员的Brabeck-Letmathe就顽固不化。他说,自己每天早上都要吃雀巢出品的黑巧克力和咖啡:"没什么丢人的啊。"