Great disorder under heaven 天朝乱了

Great disorder under heaven
天朝乱了？

China's disastrous diplomacy betrays the government's insecurity at home
中国杯具的外交政策显示出天朝政府心神不宁

Dec 16th 2010 | from PRINT EDITION



"WHY has the external environment changed?" asks a Chinese scholar of international relations in Beijing, pondering a bad few months for Chinese diplomacy. Nothing big has changed in China, nor has its own foreign policy shifted. Yet it has lurched from quarrel to quarrel with all its most important partners. The temptation for Chinese nationalists is to see their country as the victim of a Western conspiracy to keep China down, just as it is beginning to take its rightful place in the world. A more plausible explanation may be the ineptness of Chinese diplomacy, made up so often of hectoring and threats.

回想到中国外交在过去几个月中深陷低谷，北京某国际关系学者不禁问道："为什么中国的外部环境就这么变了？"国内并没有什么大事发生，中国也没有改变其外交政策。究竟是为什么？中国民族主义者们倾向于将自国看作是受害者，他们才刚刚在国际社会中取得应有之地，就受到西方国家陷害，说西方企图搞垮中国。然而，将近几个月来的外交摩擦归咎于中国自身拙劣的外交政策，可能更为合理。问题面前，中国经常不是恐吓，就是威胁，这样的博弈模式实在是吃力不讨好。

Exhibit one for China's conspiracy theorists is the award of the Nobel peace prize to Liu Xiaobo, a jailed activist. Global Times, a party newspaper, said the award ceremony marked the beginning of a "trial by history against the Nobel committee". But it was China itself that, rather than loftily ignoring the perceived slight, turned attendance in Oslo on December 10th into a with-us-or-against-us test of friendship. By this misleading benchmark, most of those invited were against. Some, such as India, had to withstand concerted Chinese arm-twisting.

略举一例，中国的西方阴谋论者认为诺贝尔奖是西方给激进主义分子刘晓波的"犒赏"，尽管他已锒铛入狱。党报类报纸《环球时报》表示，诺贝尔颁奖典礼揭开了"诺贝尔委员会接受历史审判"的序幕。但实际上，中国的此种行为，并非多可少怪的君子之举，反而将各国是否出席12月10日在奥斯陆举行的颁奖典礼，变成了一场对华友好关系测验，非友即敌。由于这一误导，大多数受邀嘉宾都未出席颁奖典礼。即使去了，例如印度，也备受压力。

The 17 countries that heeded China's boycott call hardly justified its claim that most countries backed its stand. Some, like Vietnam, might have liked to see China embarrassed, but would certainly stand up for a government's sovereign right to lock up peaceful dissidents. So would Cuba and Iran. A few others, like Pakistan, are "all-weather friends". The only real surprise was the Philippines, which is proud of its democratic freedom. But its foreign ministry was anxious to placate China after a botched hostage rescue in August, in which eight tourists from Hong Kong were killed. Even so, the Philippine president's office pleaded a "scheduling conflict" for his ambassador. The local press has pilloried the government for its timidity.

颁奖当晚，共17国缺席，以回应中国的抵制行为。但这一数字，也难与中国所谓的获得多数国家支持相符。其中，像越南这样的国家，可能是乐见中国处境尴尬的，但对于政府有主权关押异见人士这一观点，倒是举双手赞同。古巴、伊朗亦是如此。而其他一些国家，例如巴基斯坦，则与中国是"患难之交"了。他们支持中国的此项举动，却也不足为奇。可真正让人瞠目的是一向为其民主自由引以为傲的菲律宾，却因其外交部急于安抚中国8月的救援之殇，也缺席了。当时，由于菲律宾警方的拙劣救援手法，8名中国香港游客丧生。即使菲国总统为其驻挪威大使辩解说是"时间上安排不过来"，但对于菲律宾的缺席，当地媒体则齿冷其当局软弱无能。

Official Chinese commentators have repeatedly called the prize-giving a "farce". The word would be more accurately applied to the award in Beijing on December 9th of the first-ever "Confucius peace prize". The winner was Lien Chan, a former vice-president of Taiwan, much liked by the Chinese government for his conciliatory approach. Mr Lien, claiming he was unaware of the prize, was, like Mr Liu, unable to receive it. In his absence, it was given to an "angel of peace", a six-year-old girl who found herself cuddling a bundle of 100,000 yuan ($15,000) in cash. This has not gone down well in Taiwan, one of the few places where Chinese policy has recently seemed quite successful (perhaps because China sees Taiwan as a domestic problem).

中国官方评论员不断指责，本次诺贝尔颁奖典礼成了场"闹剧"。但闹剧一词，似乎用在12月9号举办的首届"孔子和平奖"身上更为合适。获奖者是前台湾"中华民国"副总统连战，因其与中国大陆的和解态度而备受青睐。连战表示，自己并不知道有获此奖，如同锒铛入狱的刘晓波一样，都未出席颁奖典礼。因此，名为"和平天使"的小女孩替连战接收"孔子和平奖"，抱着一堆价值十万人民币的现金茫然不知所措。这一举措在台湾反响并不尽如人意，中国政府对台政策最近算是如鱼得水（这可能得益于中国将台湾问题看作国内问题的缘故）。

Elsewhere, China has antagonised America, Japan and South Korea by refusing to condemn North Korea for its attacks on the South. It had already alienated a friendly government in Japan by its aggressive response to the detention in September of a Chinese trawler captain who rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel. It has succeeded in uniting many of the littoral states in the South China Sea against its high-handed refusal to discuss its territorial claims there. In November it even picked a fight with the Vatican, by ordaining a bishop not endorsed by the pope and forcing some of his bishops to attend.

另外，中国因拒绝谴责朝鲜对韩国的炮击行动而站在了美日韩的对立面。中国早在今年9月就疏远了相对友善的日本政府。当时，中国某渔船与日本巡逻船相撞，船长因此被日方扣留，而中方对此反应过激。目前，中国已通过高压手段联合中国南海许多海滨国家，拒绝讨论领土争端问题。11月，中国在未经天主教教皇批准的情况下，任命自行任命一人为某教区主教，并强制几位主教参加祝圣仪式，这无疑挑起了与梵蒂冈的争端。

Maybe China has decided that, contrary to its own protestations, it does not really need smooth foreign relations. Or maybe its diplomacy is a mess. The Chinese scholar offers three possible explanations. One is the confusing proliferation of "non-diplomatic" bodies and special-interest groups in foreign policy, from oil firms to the army to, in the case of Japan, the marine affairs and fisheries bureaus. But the other two may be more telling: the increasing importance of Chinese public opinion and the absence of any senior political figure in charge of foreign policy. The foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, is not a member of the Communist Party's 25-member Politburo, let alone its nine-member, decision-making Standing Committee. There is nobody to thump the table for foreign relations. Abroad does not matter very much.

也许中国已下定决心，天朝不需要什么良好的外交关系，而这与其所言相悖。又或者，中国的外交真的是一团糟。中国学者们对此情况提出了三种解释。其一，外交政策中"非外交"团体和特殊利益集团的无序扩充，这其中包括石油公司和军队，以及日本钓鱼岛事件中的海事局和渔业局。其余两条解释可能更具说服力：中国舆论日益重要以及缺乏能掌控外交的政治领军人物。中国外交部长杨洁篪在中央政治局委员（共25人）中榜上无名，更不用说决策主体具有九名成员的常务委员会了。没人为外交关系喊话，外部环境不见得那么举足轻重。

At least, however, China's threats often prove hollow. Despite India's refusal to kowtow over the dissident Mr Liu, for example, China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, went ahead this week with his planned visit to India. And China has confirmed that America's defence secretary, Robert Gates, is to visit in the new year, ending a freeze on high-level military contacts imposed last January after America sold arms to Taiwan. Little has been heard since of the commercial sanctions against American firms that China threatened at the time.

然而，至少中国还会那么空洞虚伪地威胁上那么几声。例如，不顾印度并未在刘晓波事件上对中国俯首称臣，中国总理温家宝就按原地计划于本周出访印度了。并且中国已经证实，美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨将于下一年访问中国，让自今年一月，美国对台军售以来就一直处于冰冻期的中美军事高层交流涣然冰释。当时，中国曾威胁称将对美国公司实行商业制裁，但也只是雷声大雨点小。

My name is Liu
咱们都姓刘

Indeed, for all the threats and vituperation directed at foreign governments, it is mostly Chinese citizens who suffer. At home, the authorities' bite is as bad as their bark. They fear organised protest and dissent far more than foreign embarrassment. Mr Liu's wife has been kept incommunicado. Human-rights groups say hundreds of people were interrogated or detained ahead of the Nobel ceremony. Many were prevented from leaving the country, lest they turn up in Oslo. News of the ceremony there was largely blacked out.

事实上，对于那些直指他国政府的威胁和责骂，真正受苦受难的反倒是中国公民。对内，中国政府可是说到做到，绝非威胁两下了事。这样一来，比起面对外交上的尴尬处境，他们更害怕有组织的抗议活动和异议行为。刘晓波的夫人目前仍被禁止与外界接触。一些人权组织表示，在诺贝尔颁奖典礼之前，上百民民众被抓去审问或是被拘留。许多人都被禁止离境，唯恐他们前往奥斯陆参加典礼。有关颁奖典礼的消息在国内也均被当局给封锁了。

Even in China, however, the government is not having things all its own way. Microbloggers have been posting eulogies to "the people they admire most", who happen to be named Liu, and whose lives echo the Nobel prize-winner's: a table-tennis player, a famous actress, a champion hurdler, a Cantopop star and Liu Shaoqi, a former president hounded to his death during the Cultural Revolution. "He was unjustly accused and spent many years in prison," read the post, by a writer who, like Global Times, takes the long view. "But I believe that all of this is but the test of history, because he said that, fortunately, history is written by the people." Not if the party can help it, it isn't.

然而，即使是在中国，政府也不能完全心想事成。微博用户们会贴出他们"最敬佩的人"的内容，这其中就有诺贝尔奖得主刘晓波，当然，还有乒乓球运动员、知名演员、跨栏冠军、粵語流行音乐明星以及前国家副主席刘少奇。刘少奇在文化大革命中，被迫害致死。"他是被错判的，在狱中待了很多年，"微博上这样写到。与《环球时报》一样，这作者还用长远眼光评析了这一事件："但我相信所有的这一切都是历史的检验，因为，他说过，幸好历史是由人民群众所谱写的。" 但历史并不是人民写的， 只要党能够阻止， 它就不是。


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