A new epic
新的篇章
China's new five-year plan is at odds with itself
中国充满矛盾的新五年计划
Oct 21st 2010 | HONG KONG
SIX million tonnes of cement; 5m tonnes of pig iron; 4.12m tonnes of steel―China's first five-year plan, formulated with Soviet help, was a resounding success. China surpassed all of these targets by 1957, the plan's final year. Will China's 12th plan, spanning 2011 to 2015, fare as well? The full blueprint will not be released until next spring. But a communiqué on October 18th offered a few early glimpses of its contents.
在苏联人的帮助下，中国的第一个五年计划取得了巨大成功：600万吨的水泥，500万吨的生铁，412万吨的钢铁。在第一个五年计划的最后一年（1957），中国人就超过了计划中设定的所有目标。那么中国的第十二个五年计划（2011-2015）还会这么成功吗？（十二五计划）的完整内容最早将在明年春天公布，但10月18日公布的公报可以（让我们）获得一些初步印象。
The new plan looks set to pick up where the previous one left off. That is not as conservative as it sounds, because the 11th plan (2006-10) was daring in conception, if not always in implementation. By 2006, of course, the share of GDP governed by Soviet-style central planning had shrunk dramatically. The 11th plan even dropped the term, replacing the word jihua, used to describe previous plans, with the term guihua, suggesting a long-range programme or strategy.
新计划看起来将从上一个计划未完成的地方开始。新计划没有传闻中的那么保守，因为十一五计划（2006-2010）虽然设计得十分大胆，但真正实施起来其实要小心很多。到2006年，像苏联那样的计划经济成分在GDP中所占的份额已经大幅萎缩了。在十一五计划中，(起草者)甚至不再使用"计划"这个词，而用"规划"一词取而代之，以表示这是一个长期的计划或者战略。
The 11th plan also introduced a distinction between hard targets (for energy efficiency, pollution and population) that officials were obliged to meet, and more indicative targets (for growth, employment and other things) that the economy was expected to meet of its own accord. And it replaced the single-minded pursuit of growth with "all-round" development, hoping to contain pollution and arrest widening economic inequalities.
十一五计划中还引入了两个不同的指标：政府官员一定要达到的约束性指标（比方说能源效率、污染、人口）以及希望经济体努力实现的预期性指标（比方说增长率、就业率等指标）。同时这个计划改片面的追求经济增长为追求"全面"的发展，希望可以限制污染以及遏制不断扩大的经济不平等。
China's leaders still count on "relatively rapid" growth to keep the social peace. Their last plan envisaged annual growth of 7.5%. That proved hugely bearish. In fact, GDP has grown by over 10% a year on average since 2006 (see chart). It expanded by "only" 9.6% in the year to the third quarter, according to figures released this week. But it is already showing signs of quickening again, prompting the central bank on October 19th to lift interest rates, by 0.25 percentage points, for the first time since 2007.
中国的领导人仍然在依靠"相对快速"的经济增长来保持社会安定。十一五计划中他们预计年平均GDP增长率为7.5%。但这已经证明是被大大低估了。事实上，自2006年以来，中国GDP的年平均增长率一直超过10%（见图表）。根据这周发布的数据，到今年第三季度GDP"仅仅"增长了9.6%。但已经显示出将再次加快（增长）的迹象，这促使中国的央行在10月19日宣布将加息0.25个百分点（这是自2007年以来的第一次）。
Thanks to its irrepressible growth, China's national income is bigger than its planners expected. But it is not distributed as they would like. In their communiqué, party leaders promised to give more of the pie to wage-earners. That would help more "harmonious labour relations", which were rattled by strikes and suicides over the summer, and also boost consumption, which accounted for 35.1% of GDP last year compared with about 50% in South Korea at a similar stage of development.
拜难以抑制的快速增长"所赐"，中国的国民收入远远大于规划者们的预期。但（国民经济）的分配情况并不如他们的意。在公报中，中共领导人承诺将分配更多的经济蛋糕给工薪阶层。这或许有助于构筑"和谐的劳动关系"，这个夏天由于罢工和自杀的影响，（中国的劳动关系）受到了很多非议；同时也有助于刺激消费，去年中国的消费支出仅占GDP的35.1%，而当年处于类似发展阶段的韩国，这个数字是50%
Promoting consumption has been a goal of China's leaders since 2004. In the years since, it has fallen as a share of GDP. It may be that China's modern, strategic planning is falling foul of the remnants of old-fashioned, central planning. The kind of heavy industries promoted in China's first five-year plan, for example, still enjoy tremendous privileges. They are dominated by state-owned enterprises, which can count on cheap loans and energy from China's state-owned banks and utilities.
从2004年以来，促进消费一直是中国领导人努力的一个目标。但是这些日子以来，消费在GDP中的占比却一直在下降。这或许是因为中国现代的、具备战略性的规划与落后的中央计划（经济）的习惯发生冲突的缘故。例如，那些在第一个五年计划中获得重大发展的重工业现在仍然在享受着巨大的特权。他们都是在行业内占据主导地位的国有企业，可以从中国的国有银行和公共事业部门获得廉价的贷款以及能源。
According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, the weight of these industries in China's economy almost tripled between 2003 and 2008. China's leaders now worry about overcapacity in a number of sectors, from steel, cement and aluminium to crushed soyabeans. Because heavy industry is capital-intensive, it creates few jobs, which is one reason why wages have not kept pace with GDP. Heavy industry also tends to be dirty and thirsty, jeopardising China's increasingly stringent environmental targets. In carrying out the last plan, the communiqué said, China's leaders had "composed a new epic". But in the rapid expansion of heavy industry, China's 11th-plan period was alarmingly reminiscent of its first.
根据在中国的欧盟商会（估计），这些行业在中国经济中的比重，从2003年到2008年大概已经翻了三番。中国领导人现在已经担心诸如钢铁、水泥、铝业以及大豆研磨等产业的产能过剩。由于重工业属于资本密集型，而且只能创造少量的就业机会，这也是为什么中国的工资收入跟不上GDP增长步伐的原因之一。而且重工业污染环境，同时要消耗大量的水，这将危及中国日益严格的环保目标（的达成）。公报中说，中国的领导人在十一五期间"谱写了新的篇章"。但是十一五期间重工业的快速扩张让我们不得不担忧地忆起中国的第一个五年计划。
Finance and Economics
金融与经济
新的篇章
China's new five-year plan is at odds with itself
中国充满矛盾的新五年计划
Oct 21st 2010 | HONG KONG
SIX million tonnes of cement; 5m tonnes of pig iron; 4.12m tonnes of steel―China's first five-year plan, formulated with Soviet help, was a resounding success. China surpassed all of these targets by 1957, the plan's final year. Will China's 12th plan, spanning 2011 to 2015, fare as well? The full blueprint will not be released until next spring. But a communiqué on October 18th offered a few early glimpses of its contents.
在苏联人的帮助下，中国的第一个五年计划取得了巨大成功：600万吨的水泥，500万吨的生铁，412万吨的钢铁。在第一个五年计划的最后一年（1957），中国人就超过了计划中设定的所有目标。那么中国的第十二个五年计划（2011-2015）还会这么成功吗？（十二五计划）的完整内容最早将在明年春天公布，但10月18日公布的公报可以（让我们）获得一些初步印象。
The new plan looks set to pick up where the previous one left off. That is not as conservative as it sounds, because the 11th plan (2006-10) was daring in conception, if not always in implementation. By 2006, of course, the share of GDP governed by Soviet-style central planning had shrunk dramatically. The 11th plan even dropped the term, replacing the word jihua, used to describe previous plans, with the term guihua, suggesting a long-range programme or strategy.
新计划看起来将从上一个计划未完成的地方开始。新计划没有传闻中的那么保守，因为十一五计划（2006-2010）虽然设计得十分大胆，但真正实施起来其实要小心很多。到2006年，像苏联那样的计划经济成分在GDP中所占的份额已经大幅萎缩了。在十一五计划中，(起草者)甚至不再使用"计划"这个词，而用"规划"一词取而代之，以表示这是一个长期的计划或者战略。
The 11th plan also introduced a distinction between hard targets (for energy efficiency, pollution and population) that officials were obliged to meet, and more indicative targets (for growth, employment and other things) that the economy was expected to meet of its own accord. And it replaced the single-minded pursuit of growth with "all-round" development, hoping to contain pollution and arrest widening economic inequalities.
十一五计划中还引入了两个不同的指标：政府官员一定要达到的约束性指标（比方说能源效率、污染、人口）以及希望经济体努力实现的预期性指标（比方说增长率、就业率等指标）。同时这个计划改片面的追求经济增长为追求"全面"的发展，希望可以限制污染以及遏制不断扩大的经济不平等。
China's leaders still count on "relatively rapid" growth to keep the social peace. Their last plan envisaged annual growth of 7.5%. That proved hugely bearish. In fact, GDP has grown by over 10% a year on average since 2006 (see chart). It expanded by "only" 9.6% in the year to the third quarter, according to figures released this week. But it is already showing signs of quickening again, prompting the central bank on October 19th to lift interest rates, by 0.25 percentage points, for the first time since 2007.
中国的领导人仍然在依靠"相对快速"的经济增长来保持社会安定。十一五计划中他们预计年平均GDP增长率为7.5%。但这已经证明是被大大低估了。事实上，自2006年以来，中国GDP的年平均增长率一直超过10%（见图表）。根据这周发布的数据，到今年第三季度GDP"仅仅"增长了9.6%。但已经显示出将再次加快（增长）的迹象，这促使中国的央行在10月19日宣布将加息0.25个百分点（这是自2007年以来的第一次）。
Thanks to its irrepressible growth, China's national income is bigger than its planners expected. But it is not distributed as they would like. In their communiqué, party leaders promised to give more of the pie to wage-earners. That would help more "harmonious labour relations", which were rattled by strikes and suicides over the summer, and also boost consumption, which accounted for 35.1% of GDP last year compared with about 50% in South Korea at a similar stage of development.
拜难以抑制的快速增长"所赐"，中国的国民收入远远大于规划者们的预期。但（国民经济）的分配情况并不如他们的意。在公报中，中共领导人承诺将分配更多的经济蛋糕给工薪阶层。这或许有助于构筑"和谐的劳动关系"，这个夏天由于罢工和自杀的影响，（中国的劳动关系）受到了很多非议；同时也有助于刺激消费，去年中国的消费支出仅占GDP的35.1%，而当年处于类似发展阶段的韩国，这个数字是50%
Promoting consumption has been a goal of China's leaders since 2004. In the years since, it has fallen as a share of GDP. It may be that China's modern, strategic planning is falling foul of the remnants of old-fashioned, central planning. The kind of heavy industries promoted in China's first five-year plan, for example, still enjoy tremendous privileges. They are dominated by state-owned enterprises, which can count on cheap loans and energy from China's state-owned banks and utilities.
从2004年以来，促进消费一直是中国领导人努力的一个目标。但是这些日子以来，消费在GDP中的占比却一直在下降。这或许是因为中国现代的、具备战略性的规划与落后的中央计划（经济）的习惯发生冲突的缘故。例如，那些在第一个五年计划中获得重大发展的重工业现在仍然在享受着巨大的特权。他们都是在行业内占据主导地位的国有企业，可以从中国的国有银行和公共事业部门获得廉价的贷款以及能源。
According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, the weight of these industries in China's economy almost tripled between 2003 and 2008. China's leaders now worry about overcapacity in a number of sectors, from steel, cement and aluminium to crushed soyabeans. Because heavy industry is capital-intensive, it creates few jobs, which is one reason why wages have not kept pace with GDP. Heavy industry also tends to be dirty and thirsty, jeopardising China's increasingly stringent environmental targets. In carrying out the last plan, the communiqué said, China's leaders had "composed a new epic". But in the rapid expansion of heavy industry, China's 11th-plan period was alarmingly reminiscent of its first.
根据在中国的欧盟商会（估计），这些行业在中国经济中的比重，从2003年到2008年大概已经翻了三番。中国领导人现在已经担心诸如钢铁、水泥、铝业以及大豆研磨等产业的产能过剩。由于重工业属于资本密集型，而且只能创造少量的就业机会，这也是为什么中国的工资收入跟不上GDP增长步伐的原因之一。而且重工业污染环境，同时要消耗大量的水，这将危及中国日益严格的环保目标（的达成）。公报中说，中国的领导人在十一五期间"谱写了新的篇章"。但是十一五期间重工业的快速扩张让我们不得不担忧地忆起中国的第一个五年计划。
Finance and Economics
金融与经济
博文
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