The lion kings? 狮王时代即将来临？

The lion kings?
狮王时代即将来临？

Africa is now one of the world's fastest-growing regions
非洲现在是世界上经济增长最快的地区之一

Jan 6th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION
2011年1月6日|来自印刷版


MUCH has been written about the rise of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the shift in economic power eastward as Asia outruns the rest of the world. But the surprising success story of the past decade lies elsewhere. An analysis by The Economist finds that over the ten years to 2010, no fewer than six of the world's ten fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa (see table).

由于亚洲国家的经济发展已经将世界其他地区甩在了后面，关于金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）崛起和经济实力东移的话题是连篇累牍，不绝于耳。但过去十年间令人惊讶的成功故事却发生在其他地方。《经济学人》的一份分析报告指出，在新千年的头十年里，世界上增长最快的10个经济体中，至少有6个来自撒哈拉以南的非洲地区（见上表）。

The only BRIC country to make the top ten was China, in second place behind Angola. The other five African sprinters were Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda, all with annual growth rates of around 8% or more. During the two decades to 2000 only one African economy (Uganda) made the top ten, against nine from Asia. On IMF forecasts Africa will grab seven of the top ten places over the next five years (our ranking excludes countries with a population of less than 10m as well as Iraq and Afghanistan, which could both rebound strongly in the years ahead).

金砖四国中唯一居于前列的是中国，位居安哥拉之后排名第二。其他五个经济增长位居前10的非洲国家包括尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、乍得、莫桑比克和卢旺达，这些国家的年经济增长率都在8％左右或更高一些。在至2000年的二十年间，只有一个非洲经济体（乌干达）跻身于经济增长的前10名以内，而其他9个都来自亚洲地区。国际货币基金组织预测，五年后世界经济增长的前10位中非洲将占七席（我们的排名中不包括少于1千万人口的国家以及伊拉克和阿富汗，这两个国家在未来数年内可能会出现经济的强劲回升）。

Over the past decade sub-Saharan Africa's real GDP growth rate jumped to an annual average of 5.7%, up from only 2.4% over the previous two decades. That beat Latin America's 3.3%, but not emerging Asia's 7.9%. Asia's stunning performance largely reflects the vast weight of China and India; most economies saw much slower growth, such as 4% in South Korea and Taiwan. The simple unweighted average of countries' growth rates was virtually identical in Africa and Asia.

在过去十年间，撒哈拉以南的非洲国家实际国内生产总值年平均增长率从此前二十年的2.4％跃升至5.7％。这超过了拉美地区的3.3％，但不及新兴亚洲的7.9％。亚洲的惊人表现在很大程度上反映了中国和印度的巨大份量。亚洲大多数经济体的经济增长要比这个数字低得多，如韩国和台湾只有4％。如果以未加权的简单平均数来计算，非洲国家的经济增长率实际上与亚洲国家完全相同。



Over the next five years Africa's is likely to take the lead (see chart). In other words, the average African economy will outpace its Asian counterpart. Looking even farther ahead, Standard Chartered forecasts that Africa's economy will grow at an average annual rate of 7% over the next 20 years, slightly faster than China's.

今后五年非洲国家的经济增长很可能居于领先地位。（见图表）换言之，非洲国家的经济平均增长率将超过其亚洲对手。展望更远的未来，据渣打银行预测，5年后的20年内，非洲国家经济的年平均增长率将达到7％，这个数字略高于中国。

So it should, of course. Poorer economies have more potential for catch-up growth. The scandal was that Africa's real GDP per head fell for so many years. In 1980 Africans had an average income per head almost four times bigger than the Chinese. Today the Chinese are more than three times richer. Africa's rapidly rising population still dampens its growth in real income per head but that, too, has risen by an annual rate of 3% since 2000―almost twice as fast as the global average.

这样的结果理所当然。穷国往往具有更大的增长潜力和追赶的势头。但令人难堪的是，非洲国家的实际人均GDP这么多年来一直在下降。1980年，非洲的人均收入几乎是中国的五倍。而如今，中国的人均收入是非洲的四倍以上。非洲人口的迅速增长更是拖了其人均实际收入增长的后腿，但即使如此，2000年以来非洲的人均年收入增长率还是达到了3％，这几乎是全球平均数的两倍。

For Western firms Africa's economy still looks tiny, accounting for only 2% of world output. Emerging Asia's is ten times larger. But Africa's share is rising, not only because of brisker growth but because GDP has been seriously understated in many economies. In November the size of Ghana's economy was revised up by a massive 75% after government statisticians improved their data and added in industries such as telecoms. Other countries are likely to revise their GDP levels and growth rates upward over the coming years.

非洲国家的经济总量只占世界总量的2％，在西方企业看来仍然微不足道。亚洲新兴市场的经济总量是非洲的十倍。但非洲的份额正在上升，这不仅是因为非洲经济正在积极地增长，也是由于许多经济体的国内生产总值曾被严重低估了。在11月，加纳政府的统计部门改进了数据统计方式，将电信等行业计入统计之中，加纳的经济总量经修订后一下就提高了75％。未来几年其他国家也可能修订其国内生产总值的统计数据和经济的增长率。

Africa's changing fortunes have largely been driven by China's surging demand for raw materials and higher commodity prices, but other factors have also counted. Africa has benefited from big inflows of foreign direct investment, especially from China, as well as foreign aid and debt relief. Urbanisation and rising incomes have fuelled faster growth in domestic demand.

非洲国家命运的这种改变在很大程度上得益于中国对原材料急剧增加的需求和初级产品价格的上涨，但也存在其他因素。非洲受益于大量流入的外国，尤其是中国的直接投资，还受益于外国援助和债务减免。城市化和收入增加又刺激了国内需求的快速增长。

Economic management has improved, too. Government revenues have been bolstered in recent years by high commodity prices and rapid growth. But instead of going on a spending spree as in the past some governments, such as Tanzania's and Mozambique's, have put money aside, cushioning their economies in the recession.

非洲国家的经济管理能力也已得到改进。近几年来由于经济的快速增长和初级产品价格的提高，非洲国家的政府收入已经得到了改善。过去有些非洲国家的政府（如坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克等）一旦有了钱就大手大脚地挥霍掉，现在他们能将钱储存起来，在这场全球经济危机到来时由于有了资金储备而缓和了本国经济所受到的冲击。

Some ambled through the decade rather than sprinted. Africa's biggest economy by far, South Africa, is one of its laggards: it posted average annual growth of only 3.5% over the past decade. Indeed, it may be overtaken in size by Nigeria within ten to 15 years if Nigeria's bold banking reforms are extended to the power and the oil industries. But the big challenge for all mineral exporters will be providing jobs for a population expected to grow by 50% between 2010 and 2030.

有的非洲国家在最近的十年内经济增长缓慢，没有突飞猛进。现在南非依然是非洲最大的经济体，但它是非洲国家经济发展速度上的落伍者。据报告在过去十年间南非经济的年平均增长率只有3.5％。事实上，如果尼日利亚在银行业上的大胆改革能够扩大到电力和石油行业，在10到15年内，南非的经济总量就可能被尼日利亚超过。但所有这些以矿产出口为主的非洲国家预期在2010~2030年间人口增长将达到50％，如何为众多的人口提供工作岗位是这些国家面临的重大挑战。

Commodity-driven growth does not generate many jobs; and commodity prices could fall. So governments need to diversify their economies. There are some glimmers. Countries such as Uganda and Kenya that do not depend on mineral exports are also growing faster than before, partly because they have increased manufacturing exports. Standard Chartered thinks that Africa could become a significant manufacturing centre.

初级产品驱动型的经济增长模式无法产生大量的就业岗位，而且初级产品的价格也可能出现下跌。所以非洲国家的政府必须实现本国经济的多样化。在这方面已经出现了一些曙光。如乌干达和肯尼亚一类国家，其经济不依赖于矿产出口，但也比以前增长得更快，部分原因是这些国家的制造业产品出口增加了。渣打银行认为，非洲可能会成为一个重要的制造业中心。

Formidable obstacles to Africa's continued progress loom, among them political instability, the weak rule of law, chronic corruption, infrastructure bottlenecks, and poor health and education. Without reforms, Africa will not be able to sustain faster growth. But its lion economies are earning a place alongside Asia's tigers.

但阻碍非洲国家持续发展的巨大障碍也隐约可见，如政治动荡、法治欠缺、长期存在的腐败现象、基础设施的瓶颈、医疗卫生和教育落后等等。不改革，非洲就无法获得经济的持续快速增长。但现在这些经济快速增长的非洲国家正如昂首怒吼的雄狮，与经济蓬勃发展的亚洲虎们一道，在世界经济的大盘中正在占有自己的一席之地。