Ending deflation in Japan An old problem结束日本的通货紧缩 一个老问题

Ending deflation in Japan An old problem结束日本的通货紧缩 一个老问题 Will it take more than monetary policy to cure Japan's deflationary ills? 除了货币政策之外，日本政府能采取更多其他措施来根治通缩顽疾吗？ Feb 10th 2011 | TOKYO | from PRINT EDITION Don't just look at it, buy it （不要只观看，买下它！） JAPAN, one of the great exporting nations, usually runs a trade deficit with, of all places, Switzerland. Why? Ask Rolex. Japan also buys more from France and Italy than it sells there. Why? Bordeaux, Brie, mascarpone and Armani, to name a few expensive vices. In Japan such delicacies are mostly immune to deflation, while prices of everyday goods like cars, electronic goods and clothes tumble. Why then do Japanese firms continue to churn out the latter, even though margins are low? And could this help explain Japan's persistent deflation problem? 日本是一个出口大国，却经常在与瑞士的贸易中存在逆差，原因何在？这得问问劳力士。日本从法国和意大利买进商品远超过其出口，这又是为什么呢？这得问问波尔多、布里、马士卡彭和阿玛尼，这里仅例举几件奢侈品品牌。在日本，这样的大多数这样的奢侈商品并不会收到通货紧缩的影响，而日常消费品的价格，比如汽车、电子产品和服装业则在通货紧缩的影响下摇摇欲坠。尽管这些行业的边际利润持续走低，但日本企业仍然继续生产日常消费品，这是为什么呢？这点有助于我们解释日本持续通货紧缩问题吗? These questions preoccupy Kosuke Motani, author of "The Real Face of Deflation". In this book's first seven months in print, 500,000 copies have been sold, including one to Naoto Kan, the prime minister. Mr Motani argues that deflation in Japan is not so much a monetary problem as a structural one linked to bad business decisions and demography. 这些问题引起了Motani Kosuke的兴趣，他是《通胀的真实面目》一书的作者。在这本书出版后的头七个月里，50万册全部售罄，其中包括一本给了首相Naoto Kan。Motani 认为与其说日本的通货紧缩是一个货币问题的话，不如说是一个与错误的商业决策和人口统计学有关的结构性问题。 If Japanese firms produced new types of luxury goods, he believes, they could unleash pent-up demand among Japan's growing, and wealthy, ranks of old people and pay higher wages to Japan's shrinking, and relatively poor, youth. Unsurprisingly, his views have won a sympathetic hearing at the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has often been accused of failing to do enough to reverse falling prices. 他相信，如果日本企业产生了新型的奢侈品，它们不仅可以满足人数不断攀升的有金老年阶层长久以来的需求，而且可以为人数逐渐缩小的日本年轻穷困一代提供更高的薪酬。毋庸置疑的是，他的观点已经博得了日本央行的同情，日本银行曾经常被指责在扭转价格下跌方面做得不够。 At a news conference on February 7th Masaaki Shirakawa, the BoJ's governor, touched on similar themes. The fundamental cause of deflation, he said, was the protracted downward trend in Japan's underlying GDP growth, caused both by the decrease in the number of workers and declining productivity growth. Monetary easing was important to ease deflationary pressures, but by itself was not enough, he asserted. Businesses needed to bring more old people and women into jobs, to counter the decline in the working-age population. They also needed to go beyond the concept of monozukuri—the well-honed skill of making things—to shikake zukuri, which he described as the creation of products that attract demand by telling a new story, as Sony once did with the Walkman. 在2月7日的一次新闻发布会上，日本央行官员Masaaki Shirakawa谈及了类似的主题。他说，通货紧缩的根本原因在于日本潜在GDP增长呈现持续下降趋势，这是由就业者数量和生产率增长出现下滑导致的。他也强调，宽松的货币政策可以缓解通货紧缩的压力，但是仅仅宽松的货币政策还远远不够。企业需要让更多的老人、妇女投入工作，以针对性地解决工作年龄的人口减少的问题。同时，也需要超越"造物"（用娴熟的技术创造东西）观念的限制，（而是shikake zukuri），他说这就像产品的创造，通过编一个新故事来吸引需求，Sony在随身听上的做法就是这样一个例子。 Many will argue that this line is a cop-out. Businessmen quibble that they could better tap fast-growing markets in Asia if the BoJ did more to cheapen the yen. Critical economists such as Koichi Hamada of Yale University argue that if the BoJ put more cash into people's wallets, it would spur domestic demand. Many believe it will take a combination of forces to end deflation in Japan, and one of the biggest dangers is that government agencies, including the central bank, put the onus on others to fix the problem. 很多人会说这条路线是逃避责任的借口。商人们质疑如果日本央行采取更多行动让日元贬值就会在亚洲的开拓快速增长的市场的做法。诸多权威经济学家，如耶鲁大学的Koichi Hamada认为如果日本央行应该让国民拥有更多资金，就会刺激国内需求。许多人都认为需要采取多方面力量来结束日本的通货紧缩，其中最大难题就是政府部门，包括中央银行，也就此问题推卸责任。 There does, however, finally appear to be some joined-up thinking. Mr Shirakawa supports Mr Kan's efforts to raise productivity by promoting free trade. If Japan raises its consumption tax to improve the public finances, the BoJ may be prepared to use accommodative monetary policy to offset fiscal tightening. 尽管如此,最终还是要从整体大局上考虑。Shirakawa赞成Kan的做法，Kan一直致力于通过促进自由贸易来提高生产率。如果日本想要通过提高消费税来提高公共财政收入,日本央行可能会使用宽松的货币政策来弥补财政紧缩政策。 Where Mr Shirakawa and Mr Motani most directly see eye to eye is on the need for companies to boost domestic demand by unleashing the latent spending power of the elderly, who sit on the vast majority of Japanese households' ¥1,500 trillion ($18 trillion) of savings. Mr Shirakawa believes there will be growing demand for health care, nursing, tourism and leisure. He reckons that a 40% rise in the turnover of fitness clubs in Japan in the past decade is due to increasing health consciousness as people live longer. He says deregulation would increase supply in such fields. 要通过释放老一辈人的潜在购买力来扩大企业的内需，而这些人坐拥日本居民1500万亿日元(相当于18万亿美元) 的存款，在这个观点上Shirakawa和Motani 的态度是一致的。Shirakawa先生认为,人们对医疗保健、护理、旅游、休闲的需求将会持续增加。他估算，日本健身俱乐部在过去的十年里营业额上升了40%是随着人们更长寿健康意识也增加了。他说放宽限制会增加这些方面服务的提供。 Mr Motani takes a more draconian view. He is fed up with the elderly hoarding their money. He says they do this because of a "King Lear" complex: they feel they will be deserted if they give too much away. And he favours tax reform to encourage them to bequeath their money to their grandchildren, rather than their children. One of the flipsides of longevity, he points out, is that the average age of those who inherit is a grand old 67. Motani则持更严格的观点。他对老年人攒钱感到反感。他说，老年人之所以这麽做，是因为他们有《李尔王》情结：如果他们给子孙的太多了，就会有被抛弃的感觉。同时，他更赞同税制改革，以鼓励老年人把他们的钱交给他们的孙辈，而不是他们的孩子。他指出，长寿的负面问题之一，是他们平均继承年龄是年逾花甲的67岁。 from PRINT EDITION | Finance and Economics