2011年8月30日

Alberta native stands at crux of dialogue between China and the West

Alberta native stands at crux of dialogue between China and the West

 

Shuffling down a Shanghai street, he is as inconspicuous as any laowai(foreigner) might hope to be. Fair-skinned, balding, bespectacled and slightly paunchy, he wears an unremarkable dark suit and carries a weathered, brown, leather satchel. It's what's inside the bag that's extraordinary. It is frequently stuffed with secret, sensitive documents, the thoughts and words of presidents, prime ministers, Fortune 500 CEOs and Nobel Prize winners.

Andrew Dawrant is not a spy. At 40, he is widely considered the top Chinese-English language interpreter working in China today, a position he has held for nearly a decade, and therefore probably the most important interpreter in the world. It has been a most unlikely journey for the Alberta native, a personal rise in tandem with China's meteoric ascent to become the world's second-largest economy, at a time when it has never been so important that the ideas of the Middle Kingdom are properly communicated to the West and that China correctly comprehends the responses of the English-speaking world. Mr. Dawrant stands at the crux of that dialogue.

High-level conference interpreting, as it is known, is one of the most stressful jobs in the world, like an aircraft controller's. A good interpreter doesn't simply regurgitate words in a different tongue; he constructs a linguistic narrative to re-express ideas, all in a matter of seconds. When Mr. Dawrant is interpreting for the American president on a Chinese visit, he must be up to speed on major issues and tensions in the two nations' relations, not to mention any number of treaties, economic agreements, trade disputes or legal cases as well as important people and places that could be mentioned.

And the interpreter must be just as cognizant of what is not being discussed. "The tone between the lines is just as important," Mr. Dawrant explains. "How will you know what is unspoken and what was expected to be said that was not said unless you went in fully informed and knowing the expectancies that preexisted around the meeting?"

And just as if he were a spy, a top interpreter must never share the intimate details of his encounters with world leaders, dignitaries and celebrities. If Mr. Dawrant were to reveal what Barack Obama was focusing on or concerned about before meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in Beijing in 2009, he would never work again.

Consider his assignment in February of 2002, when then-U.S. President George W. Bush spoke at Tsingua University on the outskirts of Beijing, being broadcast to hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens on the state network CCTV. It marked only the second time that a U.S. president had given a live speech on Chinese television. The last time, when Bill Clinton did it in 1998, interpreting issues (caused by Mr. Clinton's habit of veering from his prepared remarks), it provoked a news anchor to suggest that "if U.S.-China relations are going to improve, it will have to start with having better interpreters."

As Mr. Bush began reading from the teleprompter in his characteristic halting drawl, Mr. Dawrant set to work, listening to the president talk in English, while at the same time relaying his message in Chinese in a smooth baritone.

"That was definitely the most nerve-wracking thing I have ever done." he says. "You have to project total calm and peace through the microphone but inside you are in an incredibly nervous and anxious state."

Had he failed, he concedes, his career would have been "pretty much over." But he was note-perfect. The next day, however, there were no congratulatory e-mails or phone calls from a grateful White House.

That's the lot of an interpreter: "If you do a brilliant job in something like that, the fact is, people won't really notice."

But Mr. Dawrant's clients hasten to disagree. Michael Ducker, COO of FedEx Express, has been doing business in China since 1992 and calls on Mr. Dawrant each time he goes. "He is in a class by himself as far as I'm concerned," Mr. Ducker says.

Former British Columbia premier Gordon Campbell worked with Dawrant on the majority of his visits to China and calls him "the best in the business."

"He makes sure that if you are trying to say something humorous, people will find the humour in it. He will take something that has a North America slant … and make it work in the Chinese context," Mr. Campbell says.

On a rainy spring morning in Pudong in 2010, for example, Mr. Campbell, with a large delegation in tow, was trying to convince a group of municipal officials to increase the purchase of B.C. lumber for construction. As Mr. Campbell spoke, the Chinese officials in matching dark suits and coal-black dyed hair sat stone-faced, looking unimpressed. Yet when Mr. Dawrant started talking in forceful, direct Mandarin, gesticulating for emphasis, their eyes instantly widened and they began smiling and nodding their heads in recognition.

It's the kind of scene Mr. Dawrant has orchestrated hundreds of times.

"I've always been fascinated with the idea of being able to speak with 'others,' or 'the other,' to somehow transcend that barrier that divides us," he says. "There is a very powerful idea, that people who speak English and other languages well are not necessarily the people who will have the best ideas. Somebody has to be there, who is very good at expressing ideas, to explain the best ideas on behalf of those people who don't speak English or don't speak other languages."

*************

Throughout history, humans have relied on bilingual liaisons to communicate with other cultures. Translators often joke that theirs is the world's "second-oldest profession." Yet modern interpreting is a relatively recent phenomenon.

The turning point came in 1919 with the diplomatic meetings regarding the Treaty of Versailles and the founding of the League of Nations, facilitated by the first modern interpreters � a group of aristocrats, intellectuals and eccentrics such as the Kaminker brothers, Andre and George, as well as Jean Herbert, a Frenchman who later became the first Chief Interpreter of the United Nations.

What they practised was consecutive interpreting � allowing the speaker to deliver their full address and, after he or she finishes, delivering it in another language. It requires not only language skills and a working knowledge of the topic, but a formidable memory: Andre Kaminker reportedly could take an hour-and-a-half speech delivered in Spanish and then immediately reproduce every significant phrase, dramatic pause, tone and gesture in French, all without taking notes.

Simultaneous interpreting, however, rose to prominence in 1945 with the founding of the United Nations and the Nuremberg trials prosecuting Nazi war criminals. This comparatively time-saving approach, widely in use today (including in Canada's parliament), became possible because of technology: A simultaneous interpreter listens to the speech in one language in headphones and, usually with just a one- or two-second delay, relays it in another language into a microphone, which conveys it to the delegates' own headphones. In essence, it requires the brain to perform two tasks at once, speaking and listening in two different languages.

Simultaneous interpreting between English and Chinese is particularly trying, says Zhou Yuqiang, the chief Interpreter at the United Nations office in Vienna: "Chinese is a monosyllabic language. It is a lot faster and shorter than English. With a fast speaker you can easily be left behind. You cannot keep up with their language. Of course, the grammatical structure makes Chinese-to-English extremely difficult. You've got to invert the whole thing before you know what you are saying. This causes a very bad feeling unless you really are on top of it."

Mr. Dawrant's mastery of interpreting Chinese into English makes him a "phenomenon," Mr. Zhou says. While there are many highly skilled interpreters from China, nearly all struggle with some elements of English, whether it be accent or certain minor grammatical issues. "He has very few or none of these. At the same time, he is accurate. This is very rare," says Mr. Zhou.

Mr. Dawrant is the only native English speaker ever to be accepted as a Chinese language interpreter at the United Nations. Indeed, when he interpreted Mr. Bush's speech it is unlikely any Chinese people watching and listening on television would have detected that it was a laowai's voice they were hearing.

***

Born 40 years ago in Calgary to an unwed teenage mother, Mr. Dawrant was adopted within weeks by an immigrant couple, a doctor from Britain and his Spanish-speaking wife from Argentina, who moved the boy to Edmonton.

While many in the West were paying attention to Japanese culture due to its post-war economic rise, Mr. Dawrant was curiously drawn to all things Chinese from an early age. He was, he says, "obsessed" with Bruce Lee, the Chinese-American martial-arts star. At 8, Mr. Dawrant began learning Chinese characters, and as an adolescent, he saved money from his paper route to subscribe to a Chinese-language cable-TV channel.

The first Chinese dialect he learned was Cantonese, with its nine distinct tones as opposed to Mandarin's four. It was the language spoken by most of the Chinese people he met growing up in Edmonton in the 1970s and 1980s, mainly immigrants from Hong Kong. Mr Dawrant immersed himself in the community, befriending the elderly and exchanging English lessons for help with his Cantonese.

At 15 he travelled to Hong Kong. A few weeks' visit turned into three months of crashing on couches and in spare rooms with families who ranged from carvers of ivory tourist souvenirs to CEOs of corporations. He completed a degree in East Asian Studies at the University of Alberta. Although he had no idea he wanted to be an interpreter at the time, the multi-disciplinary program was an ideal training ground. In addition to Chinese language and history, he studied sciences, music and sociology, among other subjects.

(Today, in casual conversation, Dawrant's intelligence shines as the subject drifts from history to global affairs to literature to music. Not surprisingly, considering his ear for languages, he is an accomplished musician. He plays piano and sings strongly in both English and Chinese.)

Outside of academia, he spent much of his university years at a dim-sum restaurant. He first had to push the cart of a "dim-sum girl" around the sprawling restaurant hawking siu mai and har gao dumplings. He soon graduated to busboy and eventually to a full-fledged waiter. He became a minor celebrity in Edmonton's Chinese community for his ability to converse in Cantonese with customers.

"My entire social life in university was based around the dim-sum restaurant," he says.

Nearing the end of his studies, Mr. Dawrant had two encounters that would forever change his life. His birth mother contacted him after tracking him down with the help of a private investigator; he was inducted into a whole new family that eventually merged with his adopted kin � today, he says, his mother and adoptive mother are "best friends."

Around the same time, Mr. Dawrant met the man who would help determine his career. Jean Duval was Canada's top Chinese-language interpreter in the 1980s and 1990s. A large man with a handlebar mustache and a booming voice, he was born in France but was employed by the government of Canada. Some say this intellectual and gregarious character did as much to strengthen Canada's ties with China as any diplomat � when he visited the country with Jean Chrétien, he would receive just as warm a personal welcome from Chinese president Jiang Zemin as the prime minister did.

Mr. Dawrant met Mr. Duval on a plane headed to China in 1989. The interpreter was reading a book in a language Mr. Dawrant couldn't recognize (it was Uighur � Mr. Duval was compiling a dictionary). They spoke Mandarin to each other and Mr. Dawrant then switched to Cantonese. Mr. Duval couldn't converse as well in that language so he retaliated with Shanghainese. They called it a draw, and Mr. Duval talked about his career as an interpreter.

"It was absolutely fascinating to me. It was something I had never really thought about before. I'd been learning Chinese very seriously, but with no end game," Mr. Dawrant says.

The next stop was a brutal interpreting school in Taiwan where, like a U.S. Marine, Dawrant was physically and mentally dismantled to be built back up as an interpreter.

"It was class, practice and then more class and more practice. We never went anywhere. It was like special forces training for two years," he says. "They completely reconfigured the way your brain works � the way you deal with language and memory. Constructing a discourse model. Getting inside the speakers head and becoming very flexible with all your languages. It is kind of like torture, basically."

The newly rewired Mr. Dawrant took a job with the Canadian government in 1996. Though based in Toronto, the position involved constant travel to China, interpreting for ministers, diplomats and civil servants. He travelled not only to the major cities but to Chinese rural villages and communities that had never seen a laowai before.

"I was lucky to be there during a golden period for the Canada-China relationship. Prime Minister Chrétien … did the 'Team Canada' trips and I was on all of them, doing simultaneous interpreting for the prime minister. Canada was very big in China. We had a lot of 'face,' " he says, using a term that doesn't translate well � simply put it means "respect," but the concept is much more complicated than that.

********

For an interpreter, each language has its own challenges, but few are more difficult than Chinese. It is a language rife with homonyms, homographs, homophones and words whose meaning changes dramatically depending on the use of tone. There are also hundreds of words and phrases that simply don't translate into English. This is where the interpreter truly earns his keep by finding an appropriate substitute, a complex decision that must be made in a matter of seconds.

Worse are the many classical Chinese literary allusions and idioms favoured by many Chinese politicians and executives. Classical Chinese is a different language entirely from modern speech in China, and if the interpreter has never heard and been explained the gist of a classical phrase before, he's unlikely to have any idea of its meaning. The Chinese interpreter's greatest nightmare, Mr. Dawrant says, is hearing a client say, "This reminds me of a poem … "

And yet, incredibly, major mistakes by professional interpreters are exceedingly rare. But when they do occur, the consequences can be extraordinary.

In October of 2007, a delegate from Syria was speaking at the United Nations in New York regarding a recent air strike on a Syrian target by Israeli war planes. There had been reports that Israel bombed the target because it believed it was a nuclear facility. Syria denied this and, speaking in Arabic at the UN, the delegate described the action as an unwarranted "military aggression."

To interpret every speech into the UN's six official languages � Arabic, Chinese (Mandarin), English, French, Russian and Spanish � a system called "relay" interpreting is employed: A speech is interpreted from one language, in this case Arabic, into another, in this case French, and then translated from there to the next language and the next.

The interpreting problem occurred going from French into English: The French interpreter picked up the Syrian delegate's description "military aggression" and used the word "militaire." The English interpreter, however, whether through a lapse of concentration or a slip in auditory processing, heard the word "nucléaires."

The implication was that Syria had admitted the planes had bombed a "nuclear facility." Chaos ensued. Almost immediately news outlets in the Middle East began reporting the stunning, yet wholly false, admission. Only hours later did the UN publish a statement saying the Syrian delegate had been "misquoted" and that the interpreter, whom the UN refused to identify, had been "reprimanded."

Mr. Dawrant himself admits once making a major mistake as a UN interpreter. In Bangkok, a Chinese delegate was pledging money to support UN activities. He said China would give 675,000 renminbi (RMB) "he" $100,000 U.S. dollars."

The Chinese word he (pronounced huh-ah) can be interpreted in two ways. It can mean "and" or "which is equivalent to." Doing a quick calculation in his head, Mr. Dawrant figured that at the time, 675,000 RMB was roughly equivalent to $100,000 U.S.. So Mr. Dawrant said China was offering 675,000 RMB to the UN.

Several minutes later, China requested the floor again and Mr. Dawrant immediately knew he had made a serious error. China was pledging 675,000 in RMB as well as a separate $100,000.

"So the Chinese delegate is talking, saying, 'Madame chair, we're sorry but the interpreter must have gotten this wrong,' " he recalls, still cringing. He was forced to relay into English the delegate pointing out his own embarrassing mistake.

Far more often, however, interpreters improve the communication skills of their subjects. They can smooth over verbal missteps or cultural gaffes, tone down insults even make a speaker seem more engaging.

In Beijing, a reporter once witnessed Mr. Dawrant interpret for Ed Stelmach, the charismatically challenged and soon-to-be-former premier of Alberta. With the help of Mr. Dawrant's voice, Mr. Stelmach came off much more interesting in Chinese.

There are two schools of thought on how much of a presence a professional interpreter should have. Under the U.N. model, interpreters speak dispassionately, with little emphasis or feeling. Mr. Dawrant, on the other hand, lowers and raises his voice in intensity and pitch as he stresses important points. He uses hand gestures and facial expressions. He is difficult to ignore as an element in the conversation. He says it is critical, however, that he never outshines his client.

"I really believe that good interpreting is like acting," he says. "It's not just our job to convey the words and the ideas. It is really our job to get across the energy and the passion of the speaker … but without overshadowing or overtaking the speaker. To an extent that is appropriate, you have to convey the passion and the excitement and the tone of the speaker. If the tone is mocking, ironic or even insulting, I think it is our job to try and convey that," he says.

Some interpreters underplay a client's insults during a meeting or speech, believing that interpreting may amplify the affront. For the most part, Mr. Dawrant disagrees.

"It is not our job to question the speakers we are working for," he says. "These are very smart people and they know what they are doing. Frankly, if they screw up it is on them, not us. It's not on us, anyway. We're just saying what they said."

Indeed, as Mr. Dawrant sees it, despite his proximity to the action, he is likely destined to be little more than an interesting side note when the history of China's Western relations during the early 21st century is written.

"Interpreters don't have a lasting legacy, my friend. Translators do. You translate War and Peace and if it is the best translation ever, people will read that for posterity.

"We leave no legacy," he says. "Our work is ephemeral. It is words in the air."

2011年8月28日

Why Gold May Take a Breather

Why Gold May Take a Breather

The price of gold could fall by a third from its recent high, but the long-term case for the metal remains intact.

In addition to being a commodity, gold is also a cause. As the latter, its recent surge to record highs stands as an indictment of the paper money system that helps underwrite the fiscal and monetary irresponsibility of government, and the need to replace that system with the discipline of sound money―literally, money that actually makes a sound.

I support that cause, but what we sound-money advocates would prefer to see must be distinguished from what is likely to happen. The roaring bull market in gold seems ripe for a downside correction―assuming it didn't already begin with the $100-plus selloff from Monday's high.

According to the metals-consulting firm CPM Group, if gold were bought only for its industrial and ornamental uses―the attributes that make it a commodity―its price would run about $600 an ounce today. The last time gold saw $600 was nearly five years ago (see chart below), so other factors must have propelled the price to highs of more than triple that level. The main factor has been net buying by investors, aided by the advent of exchange-traded funds that make it easy to acquire the metal.

What exactly are these investors investing in? Mainly the concerns that help make the metal a cause: the lack of confidence in the ability of governments to manage their monetary and fiscal regimes, causing a flight out of paper money―including dollar, euro and yen―into the only major safe haven left, gold.

Despite the justifiable lack of confidence, recent price behavior to the record high of $1,897 early last week might give any gold bull pause. Even if prices recover from the subsequent selloff, chances are that further peaks will be short-lived. Look for prices to remain in a holding pattern at best, with the next major move probably favoring the bears.

One such bear is Steve Briese, publisher of the Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders newsletter and Website. Having strongly recommended long positions in the metal early this year, Briese (pronounced "breezy"), recently put out a virtual S.O.S. to his subscribers. In the Aug. 15 issue of the newsletter, he called the daily gold price chart "as close to straight up as you can get without going vertical," and then warned, in uncharacteristically emphatic language: "These charts always, always, always end with prices going down, down, down for a long, long, long time. Always."

BASED ON EXTENSIVE research he did for Barron's about the performance of similar roaring bull markets, which rose and then collapsed, Briese believes a 33% correction from recent highs, to about $1,250, is quite plausible.

Bolstering his conviction that the gold chart illustrates a classic speculative bubble, Briese further points out that the long side of the vast futures and options market has been in "weak hands." Based on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly "Commitments of Traders" report, he notes that the net short position of traders whose business involves dealing in actual gold has been at near-record levels over the past few weeks. In other words, the smart money, while not always right, has been voting with its dollars that gold will fall. It has mainly been the speculators who have been voting for a continued price rise.

Anthony Bradshaw/Getty Images

A short-term price break could be an opportunity to buy.

But not wishing to overly bug the gold bugs, he recommends only that they consider taking profits and then wait to buy back eventually at what he believes will be much lower prices. This is a similar prediction to the one Briese made for commodity indexes in the March 31, 2008, Barron's cover story. In that case, he was proved right by year end.

Whether or not this view does prove right, caution about the upside does seem in order. Take, for example, a frequent argument made by the bulls that gold should at least reach an inflation-adjusted high of $2,330, a figure derived by taking the January 1980 peak of $850 and upwardly adjusting it for the rise of the consumer-price index over those 31 years.

But if the gold price really should track the CPI, why, for example, did it fail to do so from 1985 through 2000―which saw a 15-year decline in gold, while the CPI rose by 60%? The answer is that gold responds not so much to inflation as it does to economic instability in general―and these were 15 key years in the two-decade era of the Great Moderation, when the economy was relatively stable. Of course, economic instability often includes price inflation, but mainly when it's accelerating or running annually in the double-digits.

Moreover, even if gold does try to play catch-up with the CPI, its ability to do so is hobbled by the tax on capital gains, which debits the bulls whenever they turn the gains back into dollars.

Finally, even if the gold price is fated to match its inflation-adjusted 1980 peak, the short-lived Jan. 21, 1980, spike of $850 is not the sort of benchmark economists would use. A more appropriate benchmark would be the 12-month average through December 1980. Over that period the price averaged $612, which was not exceeded until the 12 months ended February 2007.

Accordingly, what would gold have to average for 12 months in order to match that $612 in inflation-adjusted terms? Answer: $1,680. Against an August 2011 average so far of $1,747, and a Thursday close of $1,774, the price could trend down from here, and then remain in a trading range for another 11 months.

Result: It would realize the 1980 inflation-adjusted high for the 12 months of 1980, just as the gold bulls should expect.

READERS OF Barron's who dissent from this bearishly inclined view might fairly point out that a feature published last fall ("A Golden Era for the Yellow Metal," Oct. 11, 2010), could have been more prescient about the bull market that followed. The story recommended that investors "go for the gold," with a target price of "$2,000 an ounce or more," but only if they thought the economy was going "to hell in a handbasket."

Otherwise, the core prediction was that the bull market would "slow its pace," peaking at around $1,500, while suggesting that gold mining shares might be the more profitable play. The six gold-mining stocks we flagged rose 15% as a group, while the S&P 500 remained about flat. But far from slowing, the bull market in the metal itself accelerated, appreciating more than 30% over that same period.

Where the story went wrong was in underestimating the rather hellish performance of the economy, including the historic downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt, turmoil gold bulls essentially anticipated. As CPM Group managing director Jeffrey Christian, who also underestimated the bull market, comments: "I thought there was a 25% chance that the politicians in Washington would behave stupidly, when I should have put it at 75%."

Christian does not foresee a sudden surge in political brainpower. But on the matter of dealing with the federal debt, he believes the 12 members of Congress empowered to come up with further proposals will deliver real results and not just rhetoric. He also believes the economy will not unravel, but will resume a modest growth rate of about 2% annually.

Factors like these should slowly alter the perceptions of gold investors, and weigh on the price. On the other hand, if "to hell in a handbasket" is still your answer to where the economy is headed, then $2,000 an ounce or more should still be your price objective.

IN HIS 2007 MEMOIR, The Age of Turbulence, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that he favors the gold standard for its "price stability," but admits that he has "long since acquiesced in the fact that the gold standard does not readily accommodate…the propensity of Congress to create benefits for constituents without specifying the means by which they are funded [which] has led to deficit spending in every fiscal year since 1970…."

Greenspan also predicts that by 2030, "as Washington strives to make good on the implicit promises made in the social contract," price inflation might soar, causing a "trudge through economic and political mine fields before we act decisively."

Perhaps that decisive action will be a new gold standard. In any case, even if gold is poised for an extended pull back, the bull market should persist for a long time to come.

2011年8月21日

It's Time to Buy

It's Time to Buy

After a 20% plunge in just three months, emerging markets, including China, India, Brazil, Taiwan and South Korea offer strong economic growth at a discount price.

With markets shaking and shuddering all around the world, investors are fleeing risk as fast as they can. Normally the safe route would be limited to Treasury bonds, gold and cash. But this time around, there may be a surprising but smarter way to flee the economic sclerosis that's infecting Europe and the U.S.: Buy stocks in emerging markets.

One sign of the newfound respect being paid to emerging markets is the fact that their currencies in recent weeks have held up remarkably well against those of more developed economies. The Brazilian real, for example, rose 0.5% against the dollar last week and is up 4% for the year.

Balance sheets, too, are healthy. The Asian emerging markets, for example, have already gone through their painful deleveraging cycle, post the 1997-98 meltdown. They now have big current-account surpluses and huge reserves as a result of their being producers and savers, unlike the developed world that got in trouble from over-borrowing to maintain consumption.

John Dykes for Barron's

Because of their better balance sheets, they could be relatively safe havens while developed markets suffer.

You wouldn't guess that from the performance of their stock markets, however, which are down 20% from their 2011 high in May and now trade at 12.6 times earnings estimates for 2011. That compares with 14.4 times for the MSCI World index of developed markets. For that price you get GDP growth, on average, of 6.3% and earnings growth of 13% -- well above the almost flat GDP growth forecast for the U.S. and Europe.

For adventurous investors, it's time to buy, though the extreme volatility of the current markets could push these stocks lower before they turn around. "Emerging markets are smaller and less liquid than developed markets, so it doesn't take much to get the stocks clobbered," says Daniel Grana, portfolio manager of Putnam Emerging Markets Equity fund. "But the companies are more profitable, faster growing and cheaper than their developed counterparts." He thinks the group is near the bottom now.

And for the record, emerging markets as a whole held up better than developed markets in last week's plunge.

For sure there are risks. Export economies, like South Korea, Taiwan and China, would be hurt if the U.S. slides back into recession. South Korea's Kospi index was trampled on Friday, falling 6.2% on renewed fears of a slowdown in the U.S. and Europe -- the biggest one-day decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Korea indeed is dependent on foreign trade, but other growing emerging markets, such as China, account for 70% of its exports.

Geoffrey Dennis, who tracks emerging markets for Citigroup Global Markets, says, "I would be surprised if we don't see a 15% to 20% gain in emerging markets between now and the end of the year."

Paul Attwood, who manages the Huntington Global Select, is similarly bullish. "Over the next five years, emerging markets will outperform developing markets," he predicts. "It's the only place you'll find significant economic growth."

Morgan Stanley is less sanguine, warning last week that the U.S. and euro-zone economies are "dangerously close to a recession." The firm dropped its estimate for 2011 global GDP growth to 3.9% from 4.2%.

Inflation is another risk. With central banks in Brazil, China and India raising rates to stem higher costs, some fear that these markets could be in for a hard economic landing. On the plus side, falling commodity prices will help temper higher costs. If inflation peaks in the coming months and begins to trend lower, as some bulls expect, emerging-market stocks could be spring-loaded for growth.

And following the pounding over the past three months, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is certifiably cheap, trading at 10 times 2012 estimates, compared with a historical average of 11.5. The S&P 500 and the MSCI World index of developed markets both trade at 12 times.

WHILE EMERGING MARKETS are lumped together as an asset class, the group is composed of a lot of disparate markets, each with its own virtues and vices. Indonesia, for example, has gained 20% a year, on average, for the past five years. Russia, by contrast, has declined at a 7% annual clip. In all, emerging markets are up an average of 4%.

What they have in common, which is absent from the West, is growth. Even after a something of a re-rating last week, Brazil is expected to grow 4% this year. China's economy is advancing at a 9% clip, and India is growing at 7%.

Among the least expensive of the emerging nations are Russia and Pakistan, which trade at five and six times this year's earnings estimates, respectively. With good reason. While Russia is rich in natural resources, it suffers from corruption and no good rule of law. Pakistan has the same problems, plus an even less stable political situation.

Frontier markets, like Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Vietnam, can be even dicier. So investors are probably better off investing in these markets through funds than individual stocks. (For a look at emerging and frontier market funds, see "More Ways to Cross the Frontier.")

FOR MANY INVESTORS, emerging markets are uncharted territories -- or rather they've been charted only by their returns. Last year U.S. mutual-fund investors pumped nearly $96 billion into emerging- market funds, according to EPFR Global. Through July of this year, U.S. investors have pulled $12 billion out of the funds. In the week ending Aug. 10 alone, $7.7 billion was pulled out, the third-largest withdrawal on record.

Even so, emerging-market stocks have returned an average of 4% a year over the past five years, compared with an almost 5% annual decline for developed markets, as measured by the MSCI World Index, which includes the U.S.

Barron's cautioned readers about emerging markets in a cover story last year, warning that the stocks could take a breather after doubling from their 2009 lows ("Taming the Tigers," April 5, 2010). The group pulled back about 15% over the next month before rallying 23% through April 2011. They've since given back almost all those gains. The group is up 2% since our earlier article, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4.6%.

Among the markets we now like best are Brazil, which trades at less than eight times next year's earnings estimates; China, at 10 times; South Korea, at 7.6; India at 11.5; and Taiwan, at 10.7 (see table).

Where the Buys Are

Emerging markets are cheaper than their developed counterparts with far more growth. Earnings for the MSCI Emerging Markets index are expected to grow at 15% over the long term, versus 12% for MSCI World index.

Recent Change P/E** 2011**
Market  Index Level YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr* 2011 2012 Price/Book
Brazil Bovespa 52,482.82 -23.30% -21.40% -0.10% 8.6 7.6 1.2
Comments: Latin America's economic dynamo selling at relatively low valuation.
China Shanghai 2,534.36 -8.9 -4 5.1 11.7 9.7 1.8
Comments: Concerns of hard-landing for economy could be priced into stocks.
Russia  RTS 1,535.72 -10.5 8.6 -2.4 5 4.7 0.9
Comments: Should benefit if oil stabilizes, and very cheap.
South Korea Kospi 1,744.88 -9.3 5.6 7.4 8.7 7.6 1.1
Comments: Some analysts expect 2011 GDP to grow a sturdy 5%.
Taiwan Taiex 7,342.96 -15.1 -3.9 6.7 12.9 10.7 1.5
Comments: Reasonably valued, big commodity exporter.
India Sensex 16,469.80 -19.7 -9.8 5.4 13.4 11.5 2.4
Comments: One of worst-performing markets this year but GDP still growing strong.
MSCI Emerging Markets 41,204.16 -14.5 -4.6 1.1 12.6 N/A 1.9
Comments: Impressive GDP growth, well-run economy merit premium valuation.
MSCI World 782.98 -12.8 -2.8 -6.5 14.4 N/A 1.8
*Annualzed. **Estimated. Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI

China, Brazil and South Korea, it bears noting, are among the biggest and most liquid markets in the developing world.

BRAZIL'S BOVESPA is down 23% so far this year, lagging almost every other major global market, on concerns about slowing global growth and appreciation in the real, both of which could be a drag on exports. But there's still much to like about the country: Income is growing, unemployment remains low and the economy is pretty independent of U.S. exports. Exports to the U.S. represent less than 2% of GDP.

And at its current level, the market may already be discounting the worst. Among the more attractive Brazilian stocks is Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SBS), a $5 billion water utility whose American Depository Receipts trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Sabesp posted better-than-expected quarterly results last week. At a recent 51, the ADRs trade at 9.6 times next year's estimates. It could rise to 60.

Stocks in Mexico, the other major Latin American economy, are off 12% this year. Citi expects GDP to grow 4.1% this year, down slightly from 5.4% last year. That's still relatively sturdy but some analysts are underweight Mexico, given its high exposure to the U.S. economy, at 23% of GDP. But there are compelling opportunities in companies that serve the domestic market. The ADRs for Femsa (FMX), Mexico's biggest producer of beer and soft drinks, have gained 36% over the past year, driven by strong growth. That should continue, as the company is expected to benefit from population growth in Latin America. James Hunt, manager of Tocqueville International Value Fund, says the company's stable growth and strong cash flow make it a good bet.

At 66, the ADRs trade at 15 times next year's estimates. Hunt estimates they are worth 80 on a sum-of-the-parts basis.

And while South Korea could go lower on the current panic, the stocks are now attractively priced. Among the most beaten down big names is Samsung (005930.Skorea), which closed Friday at 680,000 won and now trades at 7.5 times this year's estimates. Even with sluggish consumer demand, and problems with its LCD display and TV units, analysts think earnings could grow 19% next year. Smartphone shipments could grow 50% in the next quarter, helping to power the stock up 20% over the next 12 months.

India is priced at a premium to the group, but its economy is growing at a premium rate, as well. The country's middle class is growing rapidly, and some investors think the best way to that is through ICICI Bank (IBN), the nation's largest private-sector bank.

ICICI loans are growing at a 20% clip, and earnings are growing at 30%. But the stock, which closed Friday at 36.60, fetches 15 times earnings. Paul Attwood, of Huntington Global, thinks the stock could rise more than 60% over the next 12 to 18 months.

BCA Research, a Canadian research firm, is generally bearish on emerging markets, citing the waning global recovery. But the firm is overweight Taiwan on the belief that the global tech sector will outperform. The best way to play the country's tech-heavy market is the iShares MSCI Taiwan index ETF (EWT).

The biggest emerging market of them all, China, is down 13% on the year, for all of the reasons stated above and more. But if that country's economy has slowed to "just" 9%, from 10% last year, earnings for China's stock markets are still advancing at more than 15%.

China Mobile (CHL) is the world's largest wireless operator, with more than 600 million subscribers and 70% of the Chinese market -- and it's a compelling play on China's rising middle class. For the year's first half, the company reported an 11% jump in its subscriber count. The stock closed Friday at 48.92 and trades at 10.1 times forward earnings, near the bottom of its five-year range. And it has a juicy 4% dividend, which goes a long way toward taking the risk off in an increasingly risk-off world.

2011年8月16日

看多中国

  • 看多中国
  • 2011-8-15    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 美国主权信用评级下调引发的经济风暴并不会给中国实体经济带来太大冲击,但是却考验决策者宏观调控水平。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》记者 廖宗魁 刘林】8月8日,道琼斯指数暴跌634.76点,跌幅达5.55%;8月10日,道指再度暴跌520点,跌幅4.6%,已跌至2010年10月以来的最低水平。全球股市一片哀鸣,这就是8月5日国际三大评级公司之一的标准普尔把美国主权信用评级从AAA下调至AA+后的市场反应。中国股市也未能幸免,8月8日上证指数暴跌3.8%。

    一时间,"全球经济二次探底"、"全球资产重估"等重磅炸弹纷至沓来。2008年的雷曼危机把欧美卷入了一次大萧条,并逐渐演化成为债务危机,中国则迅速复苏,走出V型反转路线。如今美国再度罹难,中国又能否独善其身?

    无论从经济基本面,还是从政策的效果上看,中国都比美国有独特的优势。即使全球经济二次探底,对中国经济的冲击也不可能超过2008年。当然,中国目前的政策应该密切注视国际经济的变化,以静制动方为上策。

    总理温家宝在8月9日国务院常务会议上指出,"当前国际金融市场出现急剧动荡,世界经济复苏的不确定性、不稳定性上升。我们要冷静观察,沉着应对,做好防范风险的准备。"温总理的这一表态似乎预示着进一步加码的紧缩政策可能性很小了。

    美国经济跌入泥潭

    表面上看,标普下调美国债务评级是针对美国国会和政府最近达成一致的财政整合方案,不足以稳定美国的中期债务。实际上,美债降级更是对美国经济增长模式的质疑,对美国政治决策有效性的质疑。

    阳光保险首席经济学家温永鹏向本刊记者表示,在美国国债评级遭下调之前,美国股市已经呈现连续多日的回调。这种调整更多的体现了投资者对美国经济基本面以及未来政策的担忧。

    标普认为,"美国决策和政治机构的有效性、稳定性和可预测性减弱"也是美债评级遭到下调的一个重要原因。

    美国经济已经出现了明显的二次探底征兆。哈佛大学经济学教授、NBER商业周期评定委员会成员Martin Feldstein近日表示,"美国经济已经处在二次探底边缘,目前有50%的概率再度陷入衰退。"美银美林北美首席经济学家Ethan S. Harris 8月9日最新判断,美国经济在未来12个月进入衰退的可能性是35%。

    一季度美国经济仅增长0.4%,二季度初步估计增长1.3%。拉动美国经济70%的消费极为疲软,已经处于冰点状态。由于最新的6月份美国消费支出为负增长,这已经是美国消费支出连续三个月环比负增长,这也意味着在8月底的二季度美国GDP修正数据中会下修。

    最近各大机构纷纷下调了美国经济增长的预测。JP摩根已经把三季度美国经济增长预测从之前的2.5%下调至1.5%,高盛首席美国经济学家Jan Hatzius把三、四季度的美国GDP增长预测从之前的2.5%和3.3%都下调至2%。

    中国经济暂时无忧

    与此相反,中国的经济虽然也在放缓,但一定程度上是政策调整的一种结果,比美国还是要健康得多。从同比上看,中国GDP增速从一季度的9.7%小幅下降至9.5%;但从环比增速看,中国经济二季度增长反而是有所加快的。

    7月份数据表明,工业、投资和消费增速都比6月份略微下降,但下降幅度都不大。7月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长14%,虽然比6月份低了1.1个百分点,但比5月份还是有所提高;1-7月份固定资产投资增速为25.4%,比前6个月低了0.2个百分点;7月社会品零售总额同比增长17.2%,比6月份略低0.5个百分点。

    现在关键的问题是,如果美国经济二次探底,中国经济是否将受到重大冲击?

    瑞银证券中国首席经济学家汪涛认为,中国的出口增速在下半年可能降至个位数,这可能还将进一步影响就业和企业盈利。"由于出口对于中国经济的重要程度已经不如2008年,出口占GDP的比重以及净出口对经济增长的拉动作用都要低于全球金融危机前的水平。"这也意味着,未来美国经济二次探底对中国经济的冲击要小于2008年的金融危机。

    "面对美国这艘大船出了问题,中国要想一点不受影响也是不可能的,但最坏的负面冲击也不会超过2008年的雷曼。"北京航空航天大学任若恩教授向记者表示。

    另外一个相对好的状况体现在房地产上。汪涛指出,尽管房地产市场面临着政策调控,但与2008年相比房地产销售和新开工面积仍表现得很有韧性,而且保障房建设的推进也进一步地支撑了房地产建设活动。

    QE3呼之欲出

    就在8月8日美股暴跌之后,美联储于9日发出了QE3信号。首先,美联储决定将在2013年中之前把基准利率维持在零水平;其次,美联储表明正在讨论采取各种工具支持经济复苏。道琼斯指数当日大幅反弹430点,涨4%。

    Ethan S. Harris预计,美联储将会首先采取一些消极的放松政策,比如增加美联储持有债券的久期;在未来6个月,美联储进行额外的债券购买(QE3)的可能性增加。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius也认为,美联储的表态已经开启了QE3的可能性。

    之前,欧洲央行已决定购买意大利和西班牙的国债以稳定市场。

    中国政策当以静制动

    虽然欧美央行绞尽脑汁挽救经济,但从之前的政策实施效果看都不理想。(参见本刊之前文章《QE2与四万亿功过》)相比较而言,中国在面对经济下滑所采取的刺激政策则效果显著。也就是说,面对经济的放缓,中国政策的腾挪空间和效果要比美国大得多。

    "美国和中国经济面临着截然不同的问题,美国是一种资产负债表衰退,而中国经济将面临的仅仅是全球经济放缓所带来的总需求不足。这就决定了,美国的货币政策很难起到明显的效果,而中国则可以通过有效的货币政策灵活转向来缓和经济的下滑。"任若恩教授这样评价中美政策的效力差异。

    现在大家担心的可能是,如果欧美经济真的二次探底,中国还有没有能力如2008年那样再来一把"四万亿"刺激。

    汪涛认为,"中国目前并不具备2008年-2009年时的政策空间,此次政府对于政策放松的方式和幅度都会更加谨慎。估计政府不会再加息了。"

    任若恩判断,"考虑到目前的一些不确定性,中国只需要暂时结束紧缩的货币政策,房地产调控不再进一步加码也就基本够用了。目前的政策应当以静制动。"

    由于受全球经济放缓的影响,近期原油价格暴跌,WTI原油价格从7月底的100美元/桶已经下降到了80美元/桶左右。虽然中国7月份CPI再度创出新高,同比增长6.5%,但油价的大幅下跌无疑将大大减弱输入通胀的压力。安信证券预计,CPI在四季度后会出现明显的转折,在2012年二季度将回落至3%左右。

    通胀压力的减弱无疑使得进一步紧缩的压力减小。不过市场可能担心假如美国实行QE3,中国的通胀可能将反弹。安信证券认为,"QE3的效果将会弱于QE2,它不会根本改变中国通胀向下的趋势,政策将从紧缩转向观察期和中性化。"

    美债反受追捧 外储未必缩水

    通常来说,美国评级下调将导致美国的国债遭到抛售,其价格将下跌,国债收益率将上升,美国政府的融资成本将上升。从希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰等国家的评级下调后的国债走势可以看到这一规律。

    但由于美国国债在世界上独一无二的地位,使其走出了完全不一样的走势。美国国债不仅没有为全球投资者所弃,反而有大量资金投入这一市场,各期限国债收益率无一例外都有不同程度下降,美国国债再次成为避险的港湾。

    黄金价格的飙升证明了市场的避险情绪强烈。金价在8月10日盘中一度击破1800美元/盎司的历史高点,自7月份以来金价上涨超过250美元/盎司。JP摩根已经把2011年年底的金价预测上调至2500美元/盎司。

    从7月21日到8月8日,美国10年期国债收益率已经从3.03%下降到2.4%,30年期国债收益率从4.31%下降到3.68%。也就是说,美国国债的价格是在不断攀升的,中国持有的美债的账面价值不但没有缩水,反而提高了。

    过于担心外储的账面价格变化似乎没有多少意义。汪涛认为,"长期来看美债收益率可能上升,而中国的外汇储备账面价值可能下降。不过,这些账面损失对实体经济并没有什么意义,而且中国持有的美债事实上非常安全。"

    任若恩则指出,对中国而言没什么可担心的,美国可以用来还债的东西很多,比如核心技术、矿产资源和黄金储备等。

    当美债价格飙升的时候,也是中国实行外汇储备多元化的一个时机,这时候适当卖出美债反而能挣一笔。

欧美债务危机强化结构性行情

  • 欧美债务危机强化结构性行情
  • 2011-8-13    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 过去一周,欧美主权债务危机引发了全球股灾,投资者认为经济前景充满不确定性。但我们认为这会强化A股的高PE的结构性行情。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》特约作者 陈李】在上证指数从2600点反弹到2800点期间,投资者对于今年夏天有三个拐点(通胀拐点、政策拐点、库存拐点)的乐观预期。时至今日,后两个拐点的预期没有完全兑现。尽管争议越来越大,但大多数投资者还是相信,今年夏天是通胀的拐点。这是当前对A股市场最强有力的支撑。

    然而结构性行情进行得如火如荼,市场冰火两重天。高PE行业和板块的近期市场表现远远超越低PE的行业和板块。创业板指数跑赢沪深300指数大约15%。7倍市盈率的银行股已经跌破前期低点,而28倍市盈率的食品饮料行业股价却在接近历史新高。

    我们认为结构性行情还会延续。一,指数短期内不会大幅跌破2500点。尽管欧美主权债务危机引发了投资者对经济增长前景的担忧,但沪深300指数、中证500指数的市净率已经下降到等同于2319点的位置,已经部分反映了世界经济减速的预期;二,通胀拐点预期不能被证伪,大概率看,8月、9月物价水平(同比)会持续下降;三,资本市场流动性在8月比7月相对充裕。7月央行多数时间净回笼,干扰了货币市场资金价格;而且部分国有企业集中上缴利税,财政存款增加,部分资金流出;这些因素将在8月有所缓解。但8月央票到期资金不足3800亿元,新增外汇占款可能保持在低位(不足2000亿元)。因此,8月流动性有改善,维持市场活跃,但改善有限,只能选择局部市场(消费+成长)。更重要的是,我们预计9月的流动性会明显改善。毕竟9月外汇占款会季节性上升,财政存款会季节性减少。四,支撑部分成长股的动力可能来自财政支出。今年以来中央财政收入超预期增长,而历年中央财政都是保持略微赤字,因此下半年中央财政也会出现超预期的支出。五,从目前已公布的半年报业绩来看,2011年全年盈利预测已经开始下调,但下调幅度不大。如果不出意外,2011年全年盈利预测在半年报披露结束后,只有8-10个百分点的下降,好于预期。

    欧美主权债务危机事件可能会强化结构性行情。美国债务评级下调的背后,是投资者的双重担忧。一是政府部门的持续赤字必须得到遏制,换言之,美国政府不能在未来持续增加杠杆。2008年金融危机以来,美国政府主动接过居民部门的杠杆,并没有实施真正的痛苦紧缩。如今,政府部门也不能无限制地增加杠杆,借贷度日。二是在两次量化宽松的背景下,美国经济只能轻微复苏,未来政府部门可能降低杠杆,这更增加了经济复苏的困难,全球经济蒙上了阴影。对于A股投资者而言,那些严重依赖外部需求,或者依赖与外部需求有关投资的行业,其盈利前景堪忧。在这种情况下,高PE的消费内需股、有真正成长性的中小盘股票,会得到持续追捧。

    当然,我们认为随着超额收益不断增加,结构性行情调整的风险也在增加,这种风险在9月可能加大。

    一方面,我们预计进入9月之后,投资者对通胀关注焦点将从同比转向环比。而且随着QE3酝酿,通胀周期演变的预期会更加紊乱。另外接近四季度,投资者可能开始更多关注2012年上半年的通胀形势。

    另一方面,尽管我们预计9月资本市场流动性持续好转,但这反而增加了政策调控风险。我们认为如果8、9月外汇占款顺利增加,再考虑到央票到期,存款准备金率上调的政策风险不能被完全排除;不仅如此,成长股持续活跃后,资金需求量不断上升,在流动性供给不能持续增加的情况下,可能会自我终结,比如,创业板成交量占全市场成交量不断增加。

    一旦在通胀预期和流动性方面遭遇挑战,配置天平会再次均衡,低估值板块比较抗跌,很可能跑赢高估值板块。

    作者为瑞银证券首席证券分析师

 

银行股在等待

  • 银行股在等待
  • 2011-8-13    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 低估值、高业绩,只能佐证银行板块有较大安全边界。当市场焦点开始转移,平台贷和再融资淡出视野,而银行板块又有利好出现时,银行股将摆脱目前的尴尬局面。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》特约作者 魏风】欧美债务问题持续发酵,大家预期债务问题,从对银行资产负债表的冲击发展到籍由利率传导机制对经济和银行业绩的冲击――市场对法兴银行半年报的反应体现了这一担忧。

    法兴银行净利润同比下降22.5%,从其业绩构成看:各业务分部收入同比增长18.02%,但金融负债重估较2010年增加利息支出7亿欧元,营收同比下降1%;营业费用同比增加6.8%;虽因希腊国债减值计提3.95亿欧元减值准备,资产减值损失同比下降3.7%;净利润同比下降22.5%至16.63亿欧元,每股净利润2.05欧元。

    对比欧美银行业新情况,不可回避的问题是:他山之石,是否可以攻玉?

    近日,央行调查统计司司长盛松成及其课题组在最新一期的《中国金融》杂志上发布报告称,应抓住时机逐步扩大利率浮动区间,而不是一次性完全放松利率管制。报告指出,对存款利率实行渐进式市场化改革,取消存款利率管制前,要完善利率调控框架,理顺利率传导机制。对于贷款利率市场化方面,简化放宽贷款利率下限和贷款利率档次是推进贷款利率市场化的主要方式。

    报告进一步确认了利率市场化改革是个长期渐进的过程,影响在中长期而不是短期,预计银行业利差水平在近年内尚不至受到巨大冲击。实际上,在存款利率方面,理财产品的大量发行、对公协议存款利率的放开已部分反映了利率市场化的影响;贷款利率仍主要取决于整体宏观环境及信贷的供求关系。

    而利率市场化改革的隐忧已反映至银行股的估值中。若在一定时期内维持现有利差水平,银行业有能力应对和消化宏观经济周期性波动的风险。在渐进式改革的过程中,要关注有转型潜力的银行。

    中小企业客户、个人客户占比较高和中间业务盈利贡献较大、利率风险管理能力强的银行更有能力应对利率市场化的冲击,目前各银行纷纷在过渡期加快转型就是这一趋势的反映。

    具体而言,与欧美相比,短期内中国银行业受金融负债重估影响有限。理由是:在利率传导机制的三个环节(即央行对银行的再贴现、再贷款;银行在银行间市场资金拆借;居民购买金融资产或者存款)中培育能够与银行存款市场相竞争的资产市场需要相当长的时间。从7月数据看,6.27万亿元国债存量,88%由央行和银行持有,个人投资者持有15.97亿元; 3.97万亿元存量企业债券(含企业债、短融、中票),个人投资者仅持有0.61亿元。

    暂停从香港借入人民币借款、外管局加大对国际收支检查力度反映了货币当局对通货膨胀保持足够的戒心。尽管央行、银监会联合发文要求银行积极支持保障房建设,如没有信贷额度调整或监管政策优惠,那么,银行是没有足够的商业动机做大保障房贷款,因此,不能轻易做出信贷规模适度放松的结论。

    管理层发布的支持保障房建设通知的影响在于:

    保障房建设资金瓶颈将得到一定程度的缓解,公共租赁住房建设的如期开工,将通过产业链带动相关产业的发展。这对经济增长将形成正面促进作用。

    由于银行现有平台贷资产质量令市场异常担心,在旧的问题没有解决的情况下,继续通过地方政府融资平台发放贷款,市场对资产质量的担忧将进一步加剧。目前市场异常关注平台贷质量,从而对银行股的负面效应更加显著。

    延续7月下跌行情,8月至今银行股仍没有起色,市场期待的中报行情落空。主要原因是:第一,招行A+H配股融资映证了市场预期的银行业再融资;第二,平台贷款资产质量担忧再起;第三,银行中报业绩超预期的可能性比较小;第四,公布的经济指标显示,中国经济增速放缓的趋势没有减缓。目前对银行板块能够构成支撑的因素是银行股低估值、高业绩,但这只能佐证银行板块有较大安全边界,下行风险不大。

    平台贷短期内不会有解决方案,将长期伴随银行股。眼下,市场关注的焦点再次集中在其资产质量上,从而平台贷资产质量问题在一定时期内都会对银行板块估值提升构成抑制。而且,中型银行已公告再融资方案,对市场情绪的负面影响也将持续一段时间。

    或许,当市场焦点开始转移,平台贷和再融资淡出视野,又有利好出现时,银行股将摆脱震荡下行行情。

 

公募基金公司股权价值褪色

  • 公募基金公司股权价值褪色
  • 2011-8-13    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 业务收入过分依靠公募业务,在发行困难加剧和赎回潮来临时,曾被视为金字招牌的公募基金,其股权价值正在递减。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》记者 袁京力】有人星夜赶考,有人辞官归乡。

    赶考的是一家家等待准生证的新基金公司,离去的是一个个基金经理、基金总经理落寞的身影。

    自7月中旬方正富邦基金成立之后,公募基金已经达到66家,据专门为外资机构服务的上海咨奔商务咨询公司的一位负责人向记者透露,外资机构在中国设立合资基金公司的态度一直很积极,至少有10家以上机构考虑来中国成立合资基金公司。

    有媒体报道,正处于筹备过程中的新基金公司家数已经达到30多家。

    与新进入者的踊跃对应的是,公募基金正陷入两大困难中:一是人员流失,从基金经理至基金公司总经理,离去的身影频繁浮现;二是发行艰难。据记者统计,在刚刚过去的7月,偏股型基金募集额最高为10亿元,平均募集规模不足5亿元,"能募集8亿元就不错了!"这是一家中型基金公司主管营销的副总对新发产品的预期。

    募集的困难及出现净赎回,让基金公司股权价值存在高估之嫌,其典型案例是:作为行业龙头的华夏基金股权拍卖,在本身被评估过高之后又被高价摘牌;另一"老十家"长盛基金,因为主要产品在"封转开"之后可能出现的巨大赎回,也给基金公司以重创,并令其价值大打折扣。

    华夏基金:收入年增15%悬疑

    受困于"一参一控"的制约,中信证券(600030.SH)不得不拍卖华夏基金51%的股权,并给出了75.63亿元的评估值。

    不过,评估公司给出这一评估值的假设却让人产生质疑。

    根据该评估报告,华夏基金从2010年至2014年,收入将从29.95亿元增长至54.82亿元,即平均每年保持约15%的增长。

    根据年度报告,该公司2010年有34.07亿元的营业收入(比评估假设中的29.95亿高10%),但此后至少要保持10%以上的增长,才能达到目标。

    这具有可行性吗?

    先看看华夏基金的管理费构成。根据华夏基金年报,在34.07亿元的营业收入中,其中公募基金管理费为29.47亿元、社保基金管理费0.47亿元、企业年金管理费0.58亿元、特定客户资产管理费0.71亿元。

    根据相关公开信息,这一收入构成,对应的华夏基金2010年底的公募规模约为2200亿元,非公募业务约1000亿元。

    显然,机构业务规模虽然庞大,但对华夏基金这类模式的公司业绩贡献却很小,后三类业务收取的管理费低于2亿元,不足华夏旗下一只QDII基金――华夏全球精选收取的3.43亿元的管理费。

    这也符合业内惯例。据上海咨奔商务咨询公司负责人透露,除了少数基金代理的QDII能获取0.7%的管理费之外,基金管理的诸如社保、企业年金等业务管理费率非常低。

    根据初步估算,如果继续按照公募业务、机构业务的收入构成的话,要在2014年达到54.82亿元营业收入,华夏基金所管理的公募资产规模要达到4000亿元左右,机构业务也需增至1800亿元左右。

    事实上,自2010年停发新产品之后,即便华夏基金股权转让能在8月完成,华夏基金从9月开始能上报产品,但按照审核周期,华夏基金在2011年能发行公募产品的概率较小。

    这意味着,在未来三年内,华夏基金要让公募基金的规模达到4000亿元左右,几乎每年增加600亿元左右。

    显然,靠发新基金难度很大。

    WIND数据显示,公募基金平均每只基金在2009年、2010年和2011年上半年的募集额分别为30亿元、21亿元和16亿元,呈现逐年下降的趋势。

    在下半年,这一趋势似乎还将继续。

    此前,据记者了解,一些基金公司为了避开银行6月底为达到存贷比大限的拉存款的考核,选择了在7月募集新基金。

    可惜,基金公司的如意算盘打错了,7月份,平均每只偏股型基金的募集额不足6亿元,近一个多月来偏股型基金最高的募集额为12亿元。

    即便华夏基金有强大的品牌支撑,但要完成每年600亿元的规模扩张,除非来一波大牛市才行,而这显然是不可靠的。

    在评估值的基础上,华夏基金51%的股权被加价至81.6亿元,这显然是一个不低的价格。

    长盛基金:同庆分级"封转开"后赎回潮猜想

    但发行新基金陷入麻烦时,赎回潮的阴魂不散,让公募基金的股权价值大打折扣。

    在2010年、2011年上半年,公募基金均表现为净赎回,而未来的赎回将可能让公募基金股权价值大打折扣。

    其中的一个典型案例是长盛基金旗下的长盛同庆分级基金。

    截至二季度末,该基金公司旗下所管理的基金规模合计390亿元,其中,长盛同庆分级基金的规模为150亿元,占据了长盛基金所管理资产规模的40%。

    早在2009年5月,长盛基金发行了一款分级基金――长盛同庆,该基金分为优先级的A类产品和进取级的B类产品,两者在募集时按照2∶3的比例分配,前者享受5.6%的年收益率,后者获得剩余收益,并以自身的资产为A类提供保本加收益。

    按照基金契约,长盛同庆在完成三年的封闭期之后转为开放式基金,即在2012年5月完成"封转开"。

    在市场火爆时,凭借着分级基金的杠杆概念,该基金仅在一天之内就募集了147亿元,提前结束了募集期。

    这也是长盛基金近三年来规模最大的基金。据统计,自2009年以来,除了一只保本基金之外,长盛旗下的新发偏股型基金目前规模均不足5亿元。

    按照150亿元的规模,在三年封闭期间,该基金可以为长盛基金提供2.25亿元的管理费,将近占该公司的营业收入的一半。

    "封转开"之后,长盛同庆却可能因为巨额赎回规模锐减。

    据机构销售人士向记者透露,尽管目前离封转开的时间尚有接近1年,但在该公司内部,不少人担心其"封转开"之后,将面临巨额的赎回,使得规模将大幅缩水。

    而这种担心也确实有其现实基础。

    具体到同庆分级基金而言,其也存在封转开之后赎回的因素:一是,同庆分级基金中,40%为享受固定收益的投资者,这些投资者在封转开之后存在赎回的冲动;二是,剩余的60%的投资者,一部分为套利而来的投资者可能直接撤退,而另外一部分,则要看长盛基金的过往业绩。

    "如果过往的业绩不好的话,投资者赎回的比例非常高,而过往的业绩好赎回比例非常低。"上海一家基金公司人士表示,该公司刚刚做完一次对封转开投资者行为的调研。

    事实上,此前A股基金在"封转开"之后曾出现巨额赎回的先例。2009年4月,银华基金旗下的封闭式基金――基金天华,转为开放式基金银华内需精选,不过,在打开赎回的一个季度内,该基金出现了近50%的赎回率。

    真的出现巨额赎回,长盛基金的管理费收入将大幅缩水,其价值也将大打折扣。

 

巴菲特错在哪里

  • 巴菲特错在哪里
  • 2011-8-13    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
  • 史蒂文的新书《亚当・斯密没那么贪婪》,详细解释了政府对华尔街大公司过度的金融补偿是怎样一步步掏空了资本主义和自由企业。在他看来,这正是经济、金融市场出现泡沫,从而造成近期市场全线崩溃的根本诱因。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》特约作者 史蒂文・巴瓦瑞亚】沃伦・巴菲特在8月5日说,标准普尔对于美国政府信用的降级是错误的,如果由他来决定的话,他会给美国AAAA级,比美国降到AA+级以前的AAA级更高。不幸的是,巴菲特先生忘记了信用评级不仅反映债方还债的能力,也反映了债方还债的意愿。

    巴菲特先生的立场有一定的逻辑,很多把美国信用当作大公司信用来看待的人也赞同他的观点。美国完全具有偿付债务的能力,因此,对于企业界的人,一个完全具有还债能力的公司在债务到期时不能还债是说不通的。当然,不能还债被称作"违约",这对于一个公司、城市、州省、国家,都是有可能的。在信用评级中体现得并非是否违约。违约的可能性越低,信用评级越高。事实上,AAA级(甚至AA+级)都几乎没有违约的可能性。

    这听起来简单,可真正复杂的是,尤其在非企业实体(比如美国)的情况中,"违约的可能性"包含两个明显有区别,但同等重要的因素:一是偿债能力,二是偿债意愿。在企业的情况中,还债的意愿是毋庸置疑的。具有还债能力却不还债的公司是非常不理性的,因为那会导致破产和企业解体。几乎没有企业的管理层会杀鸡取卵,也就是说,在具有资金的情况下不还债,会使公司走向破产。如果他们这样做,股东很可能会介入,采取更理性的管理手段。

    最近,这个相同的逻辑被用来判断美国等国家的主权债务。很明显,美国具有偿还债务的能力――一个巨大的经济体,广阔的税收平台、顺从和有发言权的公民(即使美国人对此颇有怨言,但大多数美国人按时支付税收,而不像很多其他国家那样)――一直以来,人们都认为,华盛顿官员会采取一切必须的措施来获得财政收入或者大量削减支出以用于必需的国家经费。换句话说,人们认为,国家一直都有偿付债务的意愿和能力。

    过去几个月发生的事已经动摇了美国按照能力偿债的意愿。各议员所陈述的――将在某些情况下允许国家债务"一小部分违约",或者"选择性违约"的言论,而共和党总统候选人"在任何情况下都不支持提高债务上限"的言论,传达了一个清楚的信息:在债务到期时还债的意愿并不如往常一样,获得两党支持。确实,当本应为两党共同追求的还债意愿,成为某一党的单面主张,而被另一党用来当做政治斗争的把柄要挟对方的时候,那就容易理解为什么标准普尔在美国具有还债能力的情况下,认为美国没有还债的意愿。

    类似的,在地方上也是如此。我们已经看到在某些地方,州政府遭到了文明的(和不那么文明的)反对和抵抗,因为他们试图通过要求减少政府公务员的医疗保险和养老金来削减财政,大多数待遇较丰厚的私企雇员认为这已经降到了最低水平。所有这些――不论在政治倾向上你站在哪边――都暗示着政府也许没有采取必要的强硬措施来解决财政问题和避免长、短期债务违约的政治意愿。

    这些事实暗示着,政府或许没有解决债务问题的意愿,不管是在地方还是在白宫。这是我认为导致标普采取行动的原因,并不是出于美国还债的潜在能力的考虑,只要两党一致决定要还债,这完全不是问题。

    《纽约时报》专栏作家汤姆・弗雷德曼很多年前写过,赢得"胆小鬼"游戏(两车司机正面对开,看谁先由于害怕而突然转向)的方法是,在窗外挥舞方向盘(希望是你买的废品,不是你平时用的那一个),希望对面车的司机误认为你已经拆下了方向盘,无法刹车。换句话说,你要让对面的司机相信你已经疯了,最好马上转向,因为你不想转向,也不能转向。看着上个月的债务上限之争,很多观察家、包括评级机构,也许都已经得出结论,有时一方或两方都像在窗外挥舞方向盘的司机。信用降级反映了这样一个现实:也许在华盛顿,乃至在美国,负责任的"双手握着方向盘"的财政之车越来越少。

 

11年最佳成长上市公司50强

  • 2011年最佳成长上市公司50强
  • http://www.capitalweek.com.cn/article_10764_3.html
  • 2011-8-8    文章来源于1证券市场周刊订阅
  • 2010年6月1日至2011年5月31日,沪深300指数涨幅为8.23%,2010年度成长股组合涨幅则达30.95%,大幅跑赢沪深300指数。
  • 【《证券市场周刊》特约研究员 孙旭东】在2010年最佳成长上市公司50强专题中,我们用"成长股受屈"来描述成长股投资组合的表现,否极泰来,2011年成长股的表现则扬眉吐气。

    自2010年6月1日至2011年5月31日,沪深300指数上涨了8.23%。与此同时,我们2010年推出的价值股投资组合下跌了2.73%,大幅跑输指数;成长股组合则大涨30.95%,一扫往日的颓势。

    成长股否极泰来

    2010年成长股组合10只股票中8只上涨,只有两只下跌,表现最好的为中联重科(000157.SZ),自2010年6月1日至2011年5月31日股价实现翻番。

    2010年我们曾说过,万科A(000002.SZ)、三一重工(600031.SH)、冀中能源(000937.SZ)、中联重科和格力电器(000651.SZ)5家公司2009年的净利润甚至超出了市场预期,且人们预期它们2010年的业绩仍有两位数的增长,但股价的涨幅却达不到价值股的平均水平。

    中联重科的股价在随后一年的表现相当不错,其他4家的股价表现也同样出色。

    上述5家公司是2009年度成长股组合中的成员。该组合的表现比2010年度组合还要好,其股价平均涨幅达到了50.12%。而我们重点提到的那5家公司,股价平均涨幅更是高达88.14%。

    2010年度,万科A、三一重工、冀中能源、中联重科和格力电器归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别增长了36.65%、112.71%、43.19%、90.71%和46.76%,除冀中能源外,其余4家公司净利润的增幅还超出了分析师们当初的预期(详见本刊2010年第30期《2010年最佳成长上市公司50强》)。

    由此看来,在2009年6月至2010年5月这段时间里,市场对上述5家公司的看法过于悲观,低估或者相对低估了它们的成长价值。对此,我们的马后炮判断是――那是买入股票的良机!

    我们构建投资组合的本质是寻找成长价值可能被低估的股票,其中成长股组合是过去5年股价涨幅最大的50只股票中增长机会价值最低的10只股票,价值股组合则是有分析师做盈利预测的股票中增长机会价值最低的10只股票。

    著名的价值投资者、Nicusa资本公司的保罗・约翰逊(Paul Johnson)的做法与我们有异曲同工之妙,他曾说,"为了估算现金流的价值,我使用一个简化的不考虑增长的DCF模型。"使用不考虑增长的DCF模型对企业进行估值,显然是保守的估值,如果还能以低于此的价格买入,结果可想而知。

    价值股大败

    虽然如此,我们上述构建投资组合的办法远谈不上"神奇",从上一年的情况来看,与成长股的扬眉吐气相反,价值股的表现令人心酸,而此前成长股组合也不乏跑输指数之时。

    看来,仅仅根据公式来选股还不够,更深入的分析必不可少。那么,为什么价值股组合会大败给指数呢?

    在价值股组合中,高速公路股占据了半壁江山,而股价跌得最多的两只股票均为高速公路股。之所以会这样,我们分析的结论是――2010年实现的净利润低于预期,且分析师们预期其未来成长将放缓(详见《高速公路股:机会还是陷阱?》。

    2010年我们曾重点讨论过新安股份(600596.SH),虽说它仍然入选了价值股组合,但显然我们对其没有什么信心。2010年,新安股份的业绩也确实不尽如人意――营业收入虽然同比增长了12.90%,归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润却减少了78.73%,经营活动产生的现金流量净额减少了70.51%。

    事实上,新安股份股价的跌幅远逊于其净利润,这或许是因为市场对其未来业绩仍然有所期待――根据Wind资讯数据,分析师们预计新安股份2011年净利润的平均数为2.90亿元,而其2010年的净利润仅为1.68亿元。分析师们做出这样的盈利预测并非没有依据,2011年新安股份有多项投资项目投产,年报中披露公司计划营业收入将达到60亿元(同比增长38%)。

    虽然如此,考虑到一年前分析师们对新安股份2010年净利润的预测值是5.31亿元,而实际只完成了预测数的32%,我们对新安股份2011年能否达到市场预期心存疑虑。事实上,公司管理层也不是很乐观,在计划营业收入达到60亿元的同时,他们计划的费用成本是57亿元。

    很多投资者听说过神奇公式――乔尔.格林布拉特(Joel Greenblatt)的发明,核心理念是便宜买好生意(详见本刊2010年第14期《股市大赢家》),我们以增长机会价值(PVGO)来构建投资组合的方法与其相比多了对短期未来预测的考虑,却也因此难免受到分析师预期过于乐观之害。因此,我们建议投资者不要照搬任何公式给出的结果,最好是只将其视为初步筛选投资目标的方法。

2011年度投资组合

和往年一样,成长股投资组合仍然是最佳成长上市公司的后10名,价值股投资组合的名单如表4:

在本年度的价值股组合中,高速公路股居然有6只,比上一年还要多,这是我们要专门对其进行讨论的一个重要原因。

多变的市场先生

在本年度的50强名单中,机械设备行业成为上榜最多的行业,医药生物行业则屈居次席。

在格雷厄姆笔下,市场先生的情绪反复无常,时而贪婪,时而恐惧。那么,它是否会对某一个行业始终如一地青睐呢?我们以为不会,这不符合其多变的性格特征。

以医药生物行业为例,这是很多投资者青睐的行业,国内首只行业基金就是专门投资医药股的。

不过,医药股最近一年的行情并不好。2010年5月31日,申万医药生物指数收于4153.73点,2011年5月31日收于4101.35点,下跌了1.26%。与此同时,沪深300指数上涨了8.23%。2010年度50强中的11只医药股平均上涨了3.38%,虽说比行业指数强不少,但考虑到它们的净利润平均增长了37.65%,3.38%的股价涨幅也很难令人满意。

在2010年的本专题中,我们曾说过,医药股估值过高的问题不容忽视。除此之外,怕是很难解释医药股最近一年的低迷。我们并不否定医药股的投资价值,但是,投资者只有以合理的价格买入才能获得满意的回报,多变的市场先生迟早会给我们机会。

PVGO计算方法

上市公司股票的价值可以分为两部分,一部分来自于现有资产未来产生现金流的现值,另一部分来自于未来投资的价值,即增长机会价值(PVGO)。增长机会价值占股票价值的比重越高,其成长性就越好。

我们通过以下方法计算PVGO:

PVGO=P-EPS/r

其中,P为公司股票的市价(取2011年5月31日的收盘价),EPS为每股收益(取2007年至2011年每股收益的平均值,以每年的净利润除以2011年5月31日的总股本而得)。

r为股权资本成本,EPS/r为估计的公司现有资产未来产生现金流的贴现值,根据资本资产定价模型求得,即:r=rf+β。

其中rf为无风险收益率,取长期国债收益率2.38%;β为风险系数,取最近100周的股票β值,并经过下面的公式调整,adj=0.33743+0.66257×β;rm为市场收益率;rm-rf为风险溢价,取8%。

  • 2010年6月1日至2011年5月31日,沪深300指数涨幅为8.23%,2010年度成长股组合涨幅则达30.95%,大幅跑赢沪深300指数。