A force for good正义之师

Charlemagne
查理曼专栏

 

A force for good
正义之师

 

France and Britain are leading the intervention in Libya. Rightly so
法国和英国在对利比亚的军事干预中发挥了领导作用。这理所应当

 

Mar 24th 2011 | from the print edition

 

 

 

WHETHER it was out of rashness or conviction, Nicolas Sarkozy has certainly acted boldly. The French president was first to recognise the "national council" in Benghazi, first to talk of the need for air strikes and first to send planes to repel Muammar Qaddafi's marauding forces. It was easily the biggest diplomatic and military moment of his presidency. So much for the old American canard about cheese-eating surrender monkeys[译注1].
无论是出于鲁莽抑或是信念，萨科奇此举堪称大胆。这位法国总统首先承认了Benghazi（班加西）的"全国委员会"，首先谈及对对利比亚进行空袭的必要性，又首先派出飞机帮助打击卡扎菲烧杀抢夺无恶不作的军队。在他的任期中，这轻而易举地成为了外交和军事上最具意义的一刻。美国人关于法国人胆小的谣言该停止了。

 

Mr Sarkozy did not act alone, of course. His alliance with Britain's David Cameron was essential. And America, belatedly, played an indispensable political and military role. Yet this action differs from the previous pattern of America leading and Britain following, with France opportunistically backing the Americans (Iraq, 1991) or opposing them (Iraq, 2003). This time America wants to stand back. So for the first time since the 1956 Suez crisis[译注2], Britain and France are at the forefront of military action in the Middle East. This is not to say they are reverting to old-style imperialism; both are too enfeebled for that. The British and French know they must act together to exert any influence. And to do that, they must overcome the legacy of Suez.
当然，萨克齐先生并不孤单。他与英国结成的联盟必不可少。虽然美国行动稍有滞后，在政治和军事方面却起到了不可替代的作用。以前总是美国领导，英国追随而法国则时不时的支持（1991 伊拉克）或者反对（2003 伊拉克）美国，这次却大不相同。这次美国想要退居二线。自1956年苏伊士危机之后，英法两国首次在中东地区发起军事行动。这并不意味着二者重回早已过气的帝国主义时代，因为二者都不再拥有这种能力。英法两国知道他们必须合作才能发挥影响，为了实现这一目标，他们必须克服苏伊士事件所留下的阴影。

 

In 1956 the two colluded with Israel to attack Egypt and retake the Suez Canal, which had been nationalised by Gamal Abdel Nasser[译注3] .Anthony Eden[译注4] ,the British prime minister, saw him as a new Hitler. The French resented his support for resistance to their rule in Algeria. America considered the assault as an act of imperialism that would inflame the Arab world and benefit the Soviet Union. It forced the invaders to withdraw, granting Nasser a victory, bringing about Eden's downfall, hastening decolonisation and ushering in an era of American dominance in the region.
由于Gamal Abdel Nasser将苏伊士运河国有化，1956年英法两国串通以色列共同对埃及发动了攻击并夺回了苏伊士运河。当时的英国首相Anthony Eden将Gamal Abdel Nasser比作希特勒二世。法国也因埃及支持阿尔及利亚反抗法国统治而对其愤恨不已。相反美国认为这次攻击是帝国主义行为，害怕此举会激怒阿拉伯国家并使苏联受益，于是迫使侵略者撤军。由此埃及获得了胜利，Eden也因此下台。这一事件加快了去殖民地化的进程，同时也标志着美国在该地区起主导作用的时代的到来。

 

Britain and France, whose alliance dated to the entente cordiale[译注5] of 1904 and two world wars, drew opposite lessons from this humiliation. The British resolved to cleave to America. Even their nuclear missiles were provided by the Americans. France chose greater autonomy. It sought to build up the European project as a counterweight to America and to create its independent nuclear force de frappe. A decade later it withdrew from NATO's integrated military command.
英法两国虽然自1904年签署一系列互相谅解的协定和两次世界大战开始就结成联盟，但他们从苏伊士事件的侮辱中得到的教训却迥然不同。英国坚定地忠于美国，甚至英国的核弹都由美国提供。而法国则更加倾向自治。他寻求把欧盟打造成为一支可与美国抗衡的力量，并自行发展了核威慑力量。十年后的1966年，法国退出了北约的统一领导。

 

As two medium-sized European powers, both with permanent seats on the UN Security Council and a legacy of empire, Britain and France are at the same time natural partners and natural rivals. These days, they are being pushed into greater co-operation. One reason is Mr Sarkozy's decision to return France fully to the NATO fold. Another is the weakening of French demands for the EU to develop its own military capability. Finally, the rising cost of advanced weapons is driving both to seek defence savings. In November Britain and France signed a defence pact to share capabilities, including research on nuclear warheads and the operation of aircraft-carriers. Welcome to the entente frugale, said the wags.
英法两国都是欧洲的中型国家，都是联合国常任理事国，都曾是称霸一时的帝国，二者向来既是伙伴又是冤家。最近受国际局势的影响，二者关系正越发紧密。原因之一是萨科奇想使法国全面回归北约。此外，法国对于欧盟增强自身军事实力的要求也逐渐减弱。最后，先进武器不断上涨的价格使得二者必须节约使用国防资金。11月,英法两国签署了一项国防协定,旨在互相帮助,内容涉及核导弹研究以及航母经营.欢迎加入这一节俭联盟,有人戏谑道.

 

It is striking how in the European�led intervention in Libya the two big Europe-based institutions, NATO and the EU, have so far been left on the sidelines. This is in part because both have members who are sceptical or even hostile to the Libyan adventure, notably Germany and (in NATO) Turkey. In part it is because old habits die hard, even in the heat of military action in Libya. France resisted Britain's wish to see NATO take over the mission. Britain opposed French attempts to get the EU to lead a naval force to enforce the arms embargo. A compromise is emerging: NATO will provide military co-ordination, but politicians from the allied parties will give political direction (see article, article). The EU may then use its embryonic military tools to offer humanitarian aid.
令人惊讶的是，在由欧盟主导的这次对利比亚的军事干预中，北约，欧盟这两个以欧洲国家为基础的组织却并没有起到太大作用。这部分归因于两个组织中都有成员怀疑甚至抵制这次行动，最明显的要数德国和土耳其（北约成员）。其次要归因于各国冥顽不灵的旧习，即便利比亚的军事行动正如火如荼的进行。英国希望北约领导此次行动，法国不接受;法国希望欧盟率领一支海军执行武器禁运，英国却表示反对。一种妥协的方式正在酝酿中：北约将协调军事行动，但各成员国领导人将主导政治。接下来，欧盟则可能会用原始的军事设备提供人道主义援助。

 

Given such cacophony, one begins to sympathise with the unilateralism of Donald Rumsfeld[译注6] ,the American defence secretary during the second Iraq war, who decreed that "the mission determines the coalition". But as America has found in both Iraq and Afghanistan, institutional backing helps to maintain a coalition. Italy, among others, demanded NATO leadership. Another timeless lesson is the benefit of securing UN and Arab support. "Suez? This is different. In Suez, we did not have the Arabs," says Alain Juppé, the French foreign minister.
鉴于这种不和谐因素，人们开始越发赞同Donald Rumsfeld（第二次伊拉克战争时期美国的国防秘书）的单边主义，他宣称"任务决定联盟"。但是美国从伊拉克和阿富汗战争中得出这样的结论：国际组织的支持可以帮助维持联盟稳定。意大利和其他国家一样希望北约主导这次行动。另外一项亘古不变的真理就是确保联合国和阿拉伯国家的支持。"苏伊士？这不一样，那时，没有阿拉伯国家的参与。"法国外交部长Alain Juppé如是说。

 

The rest is silence
其他国家保持沉默

 

The Libyan crisis also punctures some inflated hopes about other European countries. Italy, the former colonial power, was hopelessly out of touch at first and remains a minor player. The east Europeans have been quiet. For all the talk of Germany emerging as a "normal" power, liberated from post-war guilt, it remains handicapped, with the pacifist impulse still extremely powerful. Germany wanted sanctions against Colonel Qaddafi, but balked when they failed to stop him. It would not even let its ships enforce the arms embargo on Libya. Germany's aversion to the use of force, even by its allies, must raise new doubts about its demand for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
利比亚的危机使其他欧洲国家膨胀的欲望迅速冷却下来。意大利虽然也曾是殖民大国，但是在利比亚问题上他开局不利，现在仍然影响不大。东欧国家则较为平静。尽管大家抛弃前嫌，将德国视为一支"正常"力量，由于和平主义者的巨大影响，其仍难发挥较大作用。德国本想制裁卡扎菲，但是在行动未果之后却开始踌躇不前。德国甚至不愿派军舰参加对利比亚的武器禁运。考虑到德国忌讳实施武力的表现，连他的同盟都会怀疑他是否在觊觎联合国常任理事国的位置。

 

Libya has equally exposed the absurdity of the dream of a European army. What good would this be if Germany (or some other peacenik country) refused to allow it to protect people against a tyrant on Europe's doorstep? So the use of military force will remain a matter largely for those willing and able to exert it. That means Britain and France will continue to dictate the terms of European military engagement. They account for nearly half of Europe's total defence spending and more than two-thirds of what it spends on military research and development. The more Britain and France can share resources, the better for Europe's military power. Success in Libya could spur them to deeper integration; failure might push them apart again. The stakes in Libya are obviously high for the future of the Libyan people. But spare a thought for the future of European defence co-operation.
看似荒谬，但是利比亚也同样期待欧洲军队的到来。在欧洲层面上讲，德国（或者其他反战国家）拒绝派出力量帮助利比亚民众摆脱暴君统治会有什么好处呢？所以武力解决对于那些有能力并愿意实施的国家来说仍然不愧为首选。这意味着英法两国仍将统帅欧洲军队。毕竟二者的国防开支占欧洲总开支的将近一半，其在军备研发上的花销也超过了欧洲总额的三分之二。英法两国分享的资源越多，欧洲的整体军事实力也会越强。如果在利比亚获得成功，二者会进一步联合，如果失败，二者又将分道扬镳。现在利比亚人民的未来危在旦夕。还是为欧盟未来的防御合作着想一下吧。Economist.com/blogs/charlemagne

 

from the print edition | Europe

Defining poverty 给贫穷下个定义

Defining poverty 给贫穷下个定义

 

Measure by measure 新标准

 

MOST people have an inherent sense of what it means to be poor. But choosing a definition is much trickier. Is poverty an absolute or relative condition? What is a decent standard of living? Such questions have dogged America's social scientists for decades. This month the Census Bureau published a preliminary estimate of poverty, using a new definition. It was 16 years in the making. But it is not quite finished yet.
很多人有对什么是贫穷有着既定的感觉：但是为贫穷选择一个定义不是那么简单。贫穷是个绝对的还是相对的状态？什么才是生活体面的标准？这样的问题困扰了美国的社会学家几十年。本月，统计局发布了关于贫穷的初级估计，采用的是新的定义。为了制定这个新的标准，花费了十六年，但是还没有完成。

 

Poverty means different things in different countries. In Europe, the poor are those whose income falls below 60% of the median. Britain uses three measures: one relative, one absolute and a broader indicator of material deprivation, such as whether a child can celebrate his birthday. The concept of poverty becomes even more slippery when attempting international comparisons. The United Nations' "human- development index" assesses countries across a range of indicators, such as schooling and life expectancy.
贫困在不同国家有不同的概念。在欧洲，穷人往往是那些收入低于中产阶级60％的人群。英国采用三项措施：一是相对标准，一是绝对标准，三是物质贫困更广泛的指标，如孩子是否能庆祝自己的生日。当试图进行国际比较时，贫困的概念变得更加弹性。联合国"人类发展指数"评估国家的多个指标，如在学校教育和预期寿命指标等。 
America's official poverty measure is far simpler. Developed in the 1960s, the poverty threshold represents the basic cost of food for a household, multiplied by three. A family is judged to be poor if its pre-tax income falls below this threshold. But the official measure provides only a blurry picture. Food spending has become a flimsy reference point-in 2009 groceries accounted for just 7.8% of Americans' spending. The poverty indicator does not account for programmes that help the poor, such as the earned-income tax credit, nor does it adjust for regional variations in the cost of living. In 1995 the National Academy of Sciences recommended changing the measure, but only now is a new one close to being established.
美国的官方贫穷标准却非常简单。这是在二十世纪六十年代提出来的，贫穷的标准是用在食物上面的钱是生活花销的三分之一。如果一个家庭的税前收入降在了标准之下，就被认为是贫穷家庭。但是官方标准只提供了一个模糊的情况。食物开销成为了一个不足信的指标，2009年美国的购买杂物的开支只占7.8%。贫穷指标没有将帮助穷人的项目包含在内，比如收入税收抵免，也没有为生活成本的地区不同而作调整。1995年，国家科学院建议改变标准，但是时至今日新的标准制定才接近尾声。

 

The "supplemental poverty measure" (SPM) will not replace the official one, which is used to determine eligibility for government programmes. Rather, census officials hope the new indicator will provide a better understanding of America's poor, by measuring both the needs of families and the effect of government help. The SPM estimates the cost of food, clothing, shelter and utilities, then adds a further 20% for other expenses. This threshold is adjusted for the cost of living in different regions and for whether a family owns or rents its home. To assess a household's ability to pay for basic expenses, the SPM counts cash income as well as food stamps, tax credits and other government support, minus tax payments, work expenses and out-of-pocket medical costs.
"补充量度贫穷"（SPM）不会取代官方标准的，官方标准是用来确定政府项目的资格的。相反，政府官员希望将新的指标同时参加计算，更好的理解美国的贫穷人口，这是家庭的需要，是政府援助的效果考核的需要。SPM从食物，衣服，住房和公用事业开销几个方面衡量，其他费用则增加了20％。这项新标准根据地区不同做不同调整，还考虑家庭是拥有住房还是租房。为了评估一个家庭的支付基本开支的能力，SPM将现金收入也计算在内，好包括食品券，减税和其他政府补助，税金减免，费用和自费医疗。

 

 

 

Final figures are due to be published in the autumn, but preliminary results were released this month. In 2009 15.7% of Americans were poor, compared with 14.5% in the official measure (see chart). The share of those in extreme poverty fell, relative to the official measure, thanks to the inclusion of government support. The poverty rate dropped in rural areas and rose in urban and suburban ones. It jumped in the north-east and the West, while staying almost level in the South and falling in the Midwest. The most dramatic rise was for the elderly-from 9.9% in the official measure to 16.1% in the SPM, in part because of their high medical expenses.
最终的数据会在秋季公布，但是原始结果本月就会公布。2009年，15.7%的美国人都是贫穷的，而官方计算结果是14.5%。绝对贫穷的人口比例正在下降，这是根据官方标准测算的结果，这多亏了政府涵盖面广的扶贫政策。贫穷率在农村地区有所下降，而在城市和郊区有所上升。在西北部和西部有所上升，而在南部保持水平，在中西部有所下降。而老人中的贫穷人口比例惊人增长，从官方数据的9.9%上升到根据"补充贫穷度量"的16.1%，部分是因为高额的医疗费用。

 

Timothy Smeeding of the University of Wisconsin, long a critic of the old measure, says that the SPM is a massive improvement. Some conservatives, however, are horrified. Most objectionable, according to Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation, is that the new measure pegs household expenses at the 33rd percentile of American spending. This, he argues, makes the SPM a relative measure, rather than an absolute one. "It measures inequality," Mr Rector insists, adding that it will help advance a misguided anti-poverty agenda.
威斯康星大学的Timothy Smeeding是老标准的反对者，他说，SPM是一个巨大的进步。但是一些保守派感到震惊。根据美国传统基金会罗伯特主席所说，令人不快的是，新标准将贫穷标准定为家庭支出是所有支出的三分之一。这一点让他认为，SPM是一个相对标准，而不是绝对的。 "这监测了发展的不平衡，"主席先生认为，并表示这将孕育一个误导扶贫计划。
For all the time spent developing the SPM, it is still a work in progress. Though first official numbers are supposed to be published in the autumn, even this is uncertain. Surveys must be expanded to collect additional data. The project needs about $7.5m, and a newly conservative Congress may be reluctant to provide it.
对于要制定出SPM所花费的所有时间来说，标准的制定还在进行。尽管第一组官方数据会在秋天公布，但是这也不确定。必须扩展调查以增加额外的数据。该项目需要大约七百五十万美元，新的保守国会不情愿支付这笔费用。

Stomach staples填饱肚子的主食

Economics focus经济焦点
Stomach staples填饱肚子的主食

 

People's spending choices are a good way to assess levels of hunger人们的食物花销能有效评估饥饿程度
Mar 24th 2011 | from the print edition

 

 

 

FOR most people in rich countries hunger is a temporary inconvenience, easily solved by popping out to the shops or raiding the fridge. But chronic hunger is part of everyday life for many people in poorer places. Halving the proportion of people in developing countries who do not get enough to eat is one of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals.
对发达国家的群众来说，饥饿是一小会儿的不适，跑个商店或扫下冰箱就很容易解决。在贫困地区有很多人却天天过着挨饿的日子。联合国"千年发展目标"之一是发展中国家的挨饿人口比例减半。

 

Reducing hunger is a complicated task. There is no global shortage of food. Less poverty does not always mean better-nourished people. In India, for example, real incomes rose and the price of food fell between 1980 and 2005. Yet evidence suggests that Indians, even those who were originally eating less than recommended, reduced their calorie consumption in that time. Such findings have long puzzled economists.
全球食物不紧缺，不过减少饥饿却是个复杂的任务。不太穷又不是总和好营养挂钩。例如印度1980至2005年，人们实际收入涨了食物价格也降了，但是数据表明，即使是那些原来就吃不好的印度人，在那段时间还减少了热量消耗，这种事让经济学家头疼了很久。

 

A recent paper* by two economists, Robert Jensen of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Nolan Miller of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, suggests that part of the problem may lie in the way governments and international agencies count the hungry. This typically involves fixing a calorie threshold―2,100 calories per day is a common benchmark―and trying to count how many people report eating food that gives them fewer calories than this number. Since calorific needs differ from person to person, a universal number is clearly only a guide. What's more, concentrating on calories ignores the important role of micronutrients such as minerals and vitamins (see article). But the economists argue that this approach to measuring hunger also does not accord with how people themselves think about it. They propose a new way to use people's eating choices to tell whether they are hungry.
洛杉矶加利福尼亚大学的经济学家Robert Jensen和伊利诺伊大学厄本那香槟分校的经济学家Nolan Miller发表的论文表示，部分也许因为政府和国际机构统计饥饿数据，通常会定下门槛――每天2100卡路里是个统一标准，并试着统计有多少人摄取的卡路里低于这个标准。既然人们的卡路里需求量不一样，一个统一标准显然只能做参考。此外，注重卡路里而忽视了矿物质和维生素等微量元素的重要。但经济学家却表示这主要为了评估饥饿程度，当然不能和人们自主想的那样，不过他们提出了一个新方案：用人们的食物花销来评估饥饿程度。

 

Hunger is a physically unpleasant experience: it is accompanied by headaches, pain, dizziness, loss of energy and an inability to concentrate. For a hungry person, therefore, the extra utility from more calories is extremely high. The economists argue that the pain caused by hunger will prompt insufficiently nourished people to spend a larger share of their food budget on staples like rice and millet, which are cheap sources of calories. But once people are no longer hungry, they do not need to spend their incremental cash on the cheapest source of calories but can base their choices on things like variety and taste. This means that the share of calories that comes from staples falls progressively once a person is no longer famished; and that an unusually high share of calories coming from staples indicates that a person is hungry.
饥饿导致身体不舒服，伴随着头痛、难受、头晕、没劲儿和注意力不集中。因此饥饿的人急需更多的卡路里。经济学家提出，饥饿引起的痛苦将会推动营养不够的人花更多的钱去买大米或小米等主食，都是便宜的卡路里来源。不过一旦人们摆脱了饥饿，他们不再多花钱买这些，而是注重多样和味道。这表示人们不再饥饿，主食卡路里分量会大大下降；若主食的卡路里分量异常之高则表明人们处于饥饿状态。

 

How high is unusually high? By looking at the prices of various foods, it is possible to work out what share of a person's calories would come from staples such as rice and wheat if he were trying to fulfil his dietary needs as cheaply as possible. This theoretical "staple calorie share" (SCS) can then be compared with the make-up of a person's actual diet. Someone who is consuming a significantly higher share of calories from staple foods than predicted is likely to be hungry.
多高才算饥饿？得看食物价格，如果人们试着尽可能便宜的满足饮食需要。由价格可能算出他们大米或小麦等主食卡路里的摄取量，理论上的"主食卡路里分量"（SCS）因此可同人们实际饮食构成对比，若有人消耗比预测还高很多的主食卡路里，他很可能处于饥饿之中。

 

This approach would be far too cumbersome if each person's SCS varied greatly but things turn out to be considerably simpler. Using accepted dietary guidelines for people of various sizes and ages, and data on food prices for parts of China, the authors find that the share of calories that ought to come from staples varies much less than overall calorific needs. Wide variations in people's age, sex, physical condition and lifestyle (more exercise, say) mean that some people need as little as 2,112 calories per day, while others may require as many as 3,202 calories. But the authors find that most calculated SCSs remain in a narrow band between 80% and 85% of overall calories. What this suggests is that someone getting less than 80% of his or her calories from a staple is past the point where conquering hunger is the primary motivation driving food purchases.
如果每个人的"主食卡路里分量"有很大的不同，这个办法就会很麻烦，不过也事情变得相对更简单，在中国部分地区，对体重和年龄不同的人使用统一的饮食标准和食物价格，作者发现，应该来自主食的卡路里分量比总体所需卡路里要少得多。人们的年龄、性别、身体状况和生活方式（比如多运动）有很大的差距，一些人每天只需要2112卡路里，而其他人可能需要多达3202的卡路里。精算的"主食卡路里分量"停在总卡路里的80%到85%这一小段。摄取少于所需主食卡路里80%的人证明战胜饥饿是购买食物的原动力。

 

The economists use this threshold to measure the extent of undernourishment in nine Chinese provinces, where 16,000 individuals in 3,800 households were surveyed several times between 1991 and 2000. The people who were surveyed had to report everything they had eaten or drunk the previous day. The survey data conformed with the basic idea of substitution: the poorest households ate little other than staples. As income rose above a certain level, however, the SCSs dropped. People seemed to move out of the danger zone once their monthly income exceeded 225 yuan ($27 in 2000).
在中国的九个省，经济学家使用2100卡路里标准评估饥饿程度，1991年至2000年间，3800户中16000名居民接受了几次调查，接受调查的人们需要汇报前天食用的食物和饮料，调查数据和这个办法基本相符，：最穷的家庭以主食为主。随着收入高过一定标准，"主食卡路里分量"则会下降，一旦人们每月收入超过225元（2000年为27美元），他们似乎能摆脱饥饿的困扰。

 

Pulse taking评估
The data show how many people get less than four-fifths of their calories from rice, the main staple in most of the areas studied. Here, the results contradict what the Chinese government's standard 2,100-calorie-per-day threshold would find. Around 67% of households in the sample were undernourished by the standard measure in 2000, but only 32% got more than 80% of their calories from staples. This is a big difference. Using data on people's choice of what to eat leads to an estimate of hunger that is about half as large as the estimate using the standard method.
数据显示，在大部分的调查地点，有多少人从大米这种主食摄取的卡路里少于五分之四。我们可以看出，结果同中国政府每天2100的卡路里标准相悖。2000年在调查地大约67%的家庭达不到这个标准，只有32%家庭摄取超过80%的卡路里。以人们的食物花销来评估饥饿程度同标准方法差了一半，可真是个大差距。

 

The two measures also give opposing results about long-term trends in hunger. The average household in the sample got richer between 1991 and 2000, but the fraction that consumed less than the mandated daily number of 2,100 calories actually rose, from 53% to 67%. The share of calories coming from staples points in a different direction, however: by this measure, the number of hungry households dropped from 49% to 32% over this period. More recent evidence suggests something similar. A 2008 study found that giving poor Chinese households subsidies on staple cereals failed to lead people to consume more rice or wheat. Instead, they ate more shrimp and meat. Not necessarily the cheapest source of calories, but considerably tastier.
两种办法也在饥饿问题的长期趋势上产生了相反的结果。1991至2000年间调查地的一般家庭都变富了，每天摄取少于2100卡路里标准的小部分也从53%升到67%。主食卡路里分量产生了分歧，然而，这段时间第二种办法测得饥饿家庭的数量从49%降到32%，最近更多的数据也得出了和第二办法相似的结论。2008年调查发现，给中国贫穷家庭谷类主食津贴不能让他们多买大米或小麦，相反他们买了不少虾和肉，这些不一定是最便宜的热量来源，但却是相当美味的

Pink, and read all over令人亢�的读物

Sports newspapers
体育报

 

Pink, and read all over
令人亢�的读物

 

General newspapers can learn from the success of sporting dailies
综合报纸可借鉴体育报的成功之处

 

Mar 17th 2011 | from the print edition

 

Mamma mia! Lazio lost again
妈的， 拉齐奥又输了！

 

FOR old-fashioned newspapers, the bad headlines keep coming. The Pew Research Centre, a think-tank in Washington, DC, reported this week that more Americans now get their news from the internet than from newspapers. But there is one sort of news that readers do still want to read on paper: a blow-by-blow account of a game involving their favourite sports team. Sporting publications' resilience explains why Innovation, a consultancy, is working on the launch of one new sports newspaper in Europe and the relaunch of another with a heavy emphasis on sport.

 

沿袭传统的报纸将拙劣的标题也一并延续。华府智库、皮尤研究中心在本周发布报告称，现在更多的美国人宁愿从网络了解新闻而不是报纸。但是有一类新闻是读者仍有意愿在报刊上读的：即是对于读者钟爱队伍的比赛进行的无所不包的全方位报道。体育报业的后劲十足可以从以下略见一斑，一家咨询公司Innovation在负责一家新报在欧洲发行工作的同时还要为另一家以体育内容为主的报纸做二度发行。

 

 

 

La Gazzetta dello Sport, a fixture of Italy's bars and football stands, recently recorded an average daily print readership of 4.3m―a record for any newspaper in the country. Spain's four biggest sports dailies, helped by the national team's triumph at the FIFA World Cup, have been doing far better than its top general newspapers (see chart). Many of their readers are newspaper-allergic young men.

 

《米兰体育报》是意大利酒吧和足球场看台的必备读物，最近的日平均读者人数已达430万――创造了全国所有报纸的记录。西班牙的四大体育日报，借西班牙队世界杯足球赛上夺冠之东风，保持旺盛势头，表现大大超过该国最大的综合类报纸。（见图表）他们的读者群体多数为（被称为）"对报纸过敏的"年轻人。

 

Online audiences can be much bigger. Last year Marca's website had 27m unique visitors a month, a colossal tally for a Spanish outfit. One-third of its total ad revenues come from the website, a remarkably high share. Other sports papers have gone into e-commerce and paid news delivered via mobile phones and tablet computers.

 

网络的读者群体则更加庞大。去年，马卡报网站拥有单月2700万独立访问人次，这对于一西班牙公司来说已经是相当巨大的数字了。公司广告收入的三分之一来自于网站这也是极大份额了。其他体育报纸已进军电子商务行业，以及通过手机、平板电脑传递付费讯息的领域。

 

One reason for their success has to do with the peculiar nature of sports-media consumption. Three years ago ESPN, a TV sports giant, commissioned a study in which American sports fans were followed around by researchers. They found fans consumed about twice as much media in an average day as other young men. They watched more television, listened more to the radio, checked for news on their mobile phones more often―and spent more time reading newspapers. Often, the growth of one news source comes at the expense of another. In sport that is not always the case.

 

体育报纸其成功因素其中之一与体育媒体消费的特殊性相关联。三年前，体育电视行业巨头ESPN做了一项对全美体育迷的跟踪调查研究。他们发现，体育迷平均每天会花约2倍于其他年轻人的时间关注媒体。他们会看更多电视、听更多广播、更加频繁地通过手机查询新闻――也会花更多时间读报。通常，一种新闻渠道（流量）得以增长另一渠道会受削弱。而在体育领域，这却不是金科玉律。

 

There are a few national sports papers, like La Gazzetta dello Sport and France's L'Equipe. But most are local, and deeply tribal. Tuttosport, based in Turin, is described by one Italian journalist as "the Pravda of Juventus", Turin's top football team. All sell better when the local team wins. Yet even the most partisan papers can be brutal in their treatment of underperforming players and managers. They serve the fans, not the teams.

 

全国性（发行）的体育报纸占有一定数量，比如《米兰体育报》和法国的《队报》。但大多数体育报都是地方报，而且是深根于本土的。都灵的《都灵体育报》就被一位意大利记者称为"尤文图斯的机关报"，尤文图斯是都灵市内最顶尖足球队。当主队获胜时一切报纸都更好卖，但即使最会跟风的报纸也会对表现拙劣的队员和教练员毫不留情面。它们（其实）是为球迷服务，而不是球队。

 

The sports papers are not entirely immune to the broader news business's problems. The paid circulation of many of them is slipping even as their readership grows. Nicola Speroni of La Gazzetta dello Sport points to competition from fan websites, satellite television and general newspapers, which are devoting more space to sport. But sports newspapers have two advantages. First, they are less fussy about separating news from advertising than most publications.Marca has gone so far as to change the letter "M" in its headlines to resemble the logo of Movistar, a mobile-phone firm. Second, they tend to treat their readers better. Gazeta Sporturilor, a Romanian paper, recently began creating what it calls "wikis"―articles incorporating readers' comments and suggestions.

 

体育报纸并非完全摆脱了更大众广泛新闻媒体的经营困境。即便阅读数量增长，它们中的多数的付费销量却在下滑。《米兰体育报》的尼古拉斯皮洛尼指出，竞争来自于球迷网站、卫星电视以及正要开辟更多体育版面的主流大众报纸。但是体育类报纸具有两大优势：第一，不同于大多数报刊，它们不会在为广告与新闻内容分离（问题）上吹毛求疵。《马卡报》竟然把它标题的"M"字母改成了代表Movistar的M图标。另外，它们似乎可更好地为读者服务。一家罗马报纸Gazeta最近开始创立自己的共同协作空间，它们称之为"维基（报道）"――文章由合作读者的评论和建议组成。 

 

Sports newspapers hardly exist in English-speaking countries, and seem unlikely to appear. In Britain, tabloid and even broadsheet newspapers monopolise coverage of sport. In America fans are spread between too many different sports, and the population is too mobile, to support local sports newspapers. An effort to launch a national one collapsed in 1991.

 

在英语国家，你几乎看不到体育专业报纸，也难有希望会出现。在英国，花边小报和甚至大开页报章已经垄断了体育报道。在美国，体育迷喜好分散于众多项目中，而且其人口流动频繁无法形成（支撑）地方体育报发展的基础。1991年，全国性报纸曾有过一次尝试发行，最终以失败告终。

 

But other publishers could nonetheless learn from the sports papers, argues Juan Señor of Innovation. The internet has not so much made paper obsolete as broken the model of aggregating news on paper. Consumers are moving away from bundles of domestic, national and international news, opinion, weather reports and TV listings. The papers that survive may be the ones that deliver one kind of news extremely well. The sports newspapers have done that since the starting whistle.

 

即便这样，Innovation的胡安塞纳建议，其余报纸出版者也可以从学体育报纸中之所长。互联网并没有破坏报纸总体新闻的模式，还不至于使之沦为过气品。现在消费者对连篇的地方市井新闻、国家国际大事、评论、天气预报和电视节目单逐渐失去兴趣。报纸要获生存，就得靠把某一方面新闻报得极其出色。在这场（激烈斗争的）号角吹响之后，体育类报纸做得了最好。

 

from the print edition | Business

 

注：
1. 关于标题 pink, read all over , 因为有个关于newspaper的英语谜语是what is black, white and red（read） all over?
此处作者套用此句 换用pink（激进的、狂热的）代指文章要讲的体育报纸。・・・不过我的翻译不太好 有更好的吗请建议！

 

2.resilence 指弹性、恢复力 an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change 文章中指体育报的强劲反弹吗？
据上下文我没理解太透。

 

3."the Pravda of Juventus" ，Pravda指前苏联共党机关报《真理报》，有党政喉舌之意。

 

4.broadsheet newspaper, 指区别于一般小报的大页报纸，尤其指英国的严肃话题的报纸。 一般情况纯体育报道不属于严肃话题。

Carps among the Spratlys 南沙群岛的争战

Carps among the Spratlys 南沙群岛的争战 The risk that almost comical regional competition in the South China Sea turns serious  关于中国南海近乎可笑的区域争斗开始升级 Mar 10th 2011 | from the print edition  YET again rival claimants to little specks of rock, sand and coral in the South China Sea are losing their tempers. The Philippines is incensed about an incident on March 2nd when, it says, two Chinese patrol boats threatened to ram a ship conducting a survey at Reed Bank, off its island of Palawan. On March 4th Vietnam also protested to China, about military exercises in waters it claims. Most probably these tiffs will blow over, as usual, long before anybody gets hurt. Yet the risks are mounting that a random incident in a bewildering array of quarrels may escalate into conflict, if only because no prospect exists of a settlement. 又一次对中国南海星罗棋布的岩礁、沙石和珊瑚礁的所属权的争论开始变得激烈起来。对于3月2日发生的事件，菲律宾表示非常不满，其声称2艘中国巡逻船威胁撞击一艘菲律宾船只，该船正在菲律宾岛屿巴拉望附近指挥调查里礼乐滩[1]。4日，越南也对中国在其声明所有的水域进行军事演习表示抗议。一如往常，这些争执很有可能在造成人员伤亡之前就得以平息。然而，经过这一系列让人头晕的争吵后，危机逐渐攀升到随便一个小冲突就可能导致上升为战争，因为大和解的未来似乎不可能存在。 That is partly because the sea is entangled in so many separate disputes. China and Vietnam claim sovereignty over the Paracel island chain, from which China evicted Vietnam in 1974, in the dying days of the Vietnam war. Taiwan―because it is the "Republic of China"―mirrors China's claim. The same three parties also contest the Spratly archipelago, to the south. But in the south Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei also have partial claims. 造成这一局面一部分是因为这片海域集结了如此众多的不同纠纷。中国和越南宣称领海分界线为西沙群岛，由此，自1974年――越南战争最后的日子――中国开始驱逐越南。而台湾――"中华共和国"――也和中国一样宣称对西沙的主权。三方也就更南边的南沙群岛展开争夺，不过南部的马来西亚、菲律宾和文莱也声称对其拥有部分主权。 Some of these arguments might in theory be solvable under the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2009, for example, Malaysia and Vietnam made a joint submission, showing where they thought their claims lay, based on their continental shelves. China, however, objected to that submission and tabled its own map, with nine dotted lines outlining its claim. Joined up, these lines give China almost the whole sea. There seems no basis for this in UNCLOS. But China points to a map in use since the Republic of China published it during the Chinese civil war in the 1940s and says that, until quite recently, nobody minded. Indonesia, in turn, objected to China's objection, since its claim encroached on Indonesian waters, too.  有些争论也许可以依照1982年颁布的联合国公约海洋法（UNCLOS）来解决。比如在2009年，马来西亚和越南发表了一份联合意见，表明他们认为自己的要求建立在其大陆架之上。然而中国却反对这个意见并绘制了自己的地图，由9条点状岛屿构成的岛链勾勒出中国所宣称的版图。这些线条几乎包括了整个海域。UNCLOS似乎并没有支持这一做法的基础。不过中国指出，自从中华共和国二十世纪四十年代的解放战争以来，这样的地图一直在使用，而直到不久之前，都没有人对此表示不满。反过来印度尼西亚对中国的异议提出反对，因为中方的声明也侵犯了印方的水域。 According to American officials, China last year began talking of its claims in the South China Sea as a "core" national interest, which would put it on a par with Tibet and Taiwan. In return, America has proclaimed its own "national interest", citing the importance of the freedom of navigation and of overflight. Neither is under immediate threat. China and America, however, have long disagreed about whether America's armed forces have the right to conduct manoeuvres within other countries' 200-mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and to spy on them even from inside their (12-mile) territorial waters. Two years ago America complained when Chinese vessels harassed a surveillance ship, the USNS Impeccable, in the South China Sea south of the Chinese island-province of Hainan. America's vociferous involvement, notably at a regional security forum in Hanoi last July, was welcomed at the time by most of the ten members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). China, though, fumed at America's unrealistic offer of "mediation".  美国官方指出，中国自去年起开始将南中国海上升为"核心"国家利益问题，与台湾问题、西藏问题比肩。作为回应，美国将行海自由和飞越领空自由的重要性作为自己的"国家利益"。两者都没有受到直接威胁。然而，中国和美国就美国军方是否有权在他国200英里专属经济区（EEZs）内进行军事演习，以及在他国12英里领海范围内进行侦查活动的问题一直没能达成一致。两年前，美国抱怨中国船只干扰美国侦查舰无畏号在海南以南的南中国海的侦查活动。美国大张旗鼓地卷入在当时受到了东南亚国家联盟（东盟）十名成员国中大多数国家的欢迎，尤其是在去年七月河内地区安全论坛期间。不过中国对美国不切实际地企图"调停"大为不满。 Yet another dispute divides China and ASEAN. These two parties reached a common "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea" (DoC) in 2002 in an attempt to minimise the risk of conflict. But efforts to turn this into a formal and binding code have gone nowhere. China argues that ASEAN has no role in territorial issues. It prefers to pick off rival claimants one by one. ASEAN argues that its own charter obliges members to consult, as they do before each working group on the code of conduct, the next one of which is due soon. Another difficulty for the DoC is that Taiwan is not a party. Though Taiwan occupies only one Spratly islet, it is the biggest, now boasting a long runway.  还有其它的争论分化中国和东盟。为了减少冲突发生的可能，中国和东盟在2002年达成了"南中国海各方管理公告"（DoC）。但这些努力并未变成正式的有约束力的准则。中国认为，东盟无权干预领土问题。她更倾向于一个一个消灭对手。东盟则认为，其章程有责任责成各成员国进行磋商，并且在各工作小组根据行为准则工作之前就要完成，而下一个工作小组即将展开工作。"公告"的另一个问题是，台湾并不是一个参与国。虽然台湾只拥有南沙群岛的一个岛屿，但这个岛是面积最大的，并拥有长长的延伸范围。 Optimists argue that the DoC has at least helped keep tensions down. Indeed, since 1988, when China and Vietnam clashed near the Spratlys, there have been no serious armed flare-ups. Tension rose in 1995, when China was found to have built on Mischief Reef, claimed by the Philippines. Fishermen are sometimes locked up for encroaching on another country's claim. But the risk of escalation into conflict has seemed limited. 乐观主义者认为，至少"公告"让局势保持稳定。确实如此。自从1988年以来，中国和越南对于南沙群岛的纷争并没有导致严重的军事冲突。局势在1995年变得紧张起来，中国在菲律宾声称拥有主权的美济礁[2]兴修土木。渔船有时会因为进犯争端领海而被扣押。不过这些危机极少升级为冲突。 It is even possible to claim that the "self-restraint" the DoC demands is being observed. Since 2002 no uninhabited islands or rocks have been occupied. But maybe none of those left is big enough, and on those that were already occupied, building has continued. Rommel Banlaoi, of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, a think-tank in Manila, has an impressive collection of photographs of South China Sea structures. On Mischief Reef, for example, China has built a "fisherman's shelter" in the form of a three-storey concrete fortress, surrounded by five octagonal structures, also in concrete. 甚至可以这么说，"公告"所要求的"自我克制"仍在被观察中。自从2002年以来，没有一座无人居住的岛屿或岩礁被占据。不过这也有可能是因为剩下的这些岛屿的面积都不够大，并且在那些已经被占领的岛屿上，土木工程仍在继续。位于马尼拉的菲律宾和平、暴力和恐怖主义研究机构的Rommel Banlaoi拥有令人印象深刻的相片集，该相片集是关于南中国海的建筑物。比如在美济礁，中国已经建造了一座三层高的混凝土堡垒，作为"渔民的避难所"，该堡垒还被五座八角形混凝土建造环绕。 Such digging-in, accompanied by frenetic military modernisation by most of the claimants, is one reason to worry that the stakes in the South China Sea are becoming bigger. Another is China's proclivity for muscle-flexing. South-East Asia has seen how China is ready to bully Japan over contested waters in the sea between them. Just this week Japan lodged a formal protest after a Chinese helicopter flew close to one of its ships. That the South China Sea has become a focus of American determination to remain an Asian power adds yet another source of tension.  这些深度挖掘的内容，连同大多数申诉国的狂热的军事现代化进程，使得南中国海问题越来越值得担心。另一个问题是中国热爱炫耀武力。东南亚已经看到中国在同日本有争议的海域问题上是如何向日本挑衅的。就在本周，日本对中国直升机接近日方船只发出正式抗议。南中国海问题使得美国下定决心增强在亚洲的势力，而这却是局势紧张的另一源头。 Unsporting behaviour Moreover, the sea offers fishing bounty and is a vital shipping route for a big chunk of world trade. It has also, particularly around the Spratlys, long been believed to be rich in hydrocarbons. As time goes by, that belief grows. For example, the Sampaguita gasfield near Reed Bank is estimated to hold at least 3.4 trillion cubic feet (85 billion cubic metres) and perhaps as much as 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.  更重要的是，这片海域拥有丰富的渔业，是大部分世界贸易的运输要道。同时，长久以来人们都猜测这一地带蕴含了大量的碳氢化合物，尤其是在环南沙群岛一带。随着时间的推移，这样的猜测变得越来越可信。比如礼乐滩附近的Sampaguita天然气场被测出至少蕴含3.4万亿立方英尺（850亿立方米）碳氢化合物，以及大约20万亿立方英尺的天然气。 Among the casualties of the latest ructions have been football and basketball matches intended to build confidence between Philippine and Vietnamese soldiers on Spratlys they garrison. Encounters planned for April have been postponed. For now, the South China Sea seems no place for games.  在近期的骚动造成人员伤亡之时，驻守南沙群岛的菲律宾和越南士兵计划举行足球赛和篮球赛，意图建立士兵的信心。原定于4月举行的比赛被推迟了。毕竟，现在的南中国海没有游戏之地。 注[1] 礼乐滩位于北纬11度20分，东经116度50分。面积广大，滩面南北长130公里，东西宽65公里。专家预测，礼乐滩周围可能蕴藏着1千亿立方米天然气和4.4亿桶石油。 刘建超表示，如果菲政府这样做将被视为侵犯中国主权，导致地区关系再度紧张。 [2]：美济礁 美济礁在北纬9度52-56分，东经115度30-35分范围内。位于三角礁 东南约18海里。为一椭圆形环礁、长轴约8公里，短轴约5公里。退潮大部分出露，礁湖平均水深25米。南和西南分别有两个礁门，50吨级船只可以进出，故我国渔民向称双门或双沙。1935年公布名称为南恶礁。1947年和1983年公布名称为美济礁。有些外文图书称为South Mischief Reef.

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Mercury rising 水星升起

本帖最后由 klavier 于 2011-3-19 07:17 编辑 Planetary exploration行星探测 Mercury rising 水星升起 The latest mission to Mercury will map an enigmatic planet in detail  最新水星任务将详细绘制这颗神秘行星的地图 Mar 17th 2011 | from the print edition  EVEN by the standards of space travel, it has been a long, strange trip. But now it should be over. If all went according to plan, at one o'clock in the morning of March 18th―shortly after The Economist went to press―Messenger will have settled into orbit around Mercury, the planet closest to the sun. It is the end of a journey that has taken the craft, launched in 2004 by NASA, America's space agency, past Earth once, Venus twice and Mercury itself three times already. It is also the beginning of an intense scrutiny of the tiny world, which has otherwise remained unvisited by spacecraft since Mariner 10 zoomed past it in the 1970s.  既使按太空旅行的标准来看，这也是一次漫长而奇怪的旅行。但现在这次旅行要结束了。如果一切都按计划来，信使号将在3月18日凌晨1点（《经济学人》刚付印不久）进入水星轨道运行，而水星是离太阳最近的行星。这是该飞船的最后旅程，它由美国宇航局于2004年发射，已经路过地球一次，金星两次以及水星本身三次。这也是对这颗小小行星展开周密调查的开始，该行星自从20世纪70年代水手10号疾掠而过后，还没有飞船以其它方式访问过。 The trip has taken so long because exploring the inner solar system is a tricky business. Gravity accelerates spacecraft as they fall towards the sun. Without its six fly-bys―which used the gravitational fields of the planets involved to counter that effect―Messenger could not have slowed sufficiently to allow it to drop into its intended orbit. Despite the difficulty of getting there, though, Mercury is a juicy target. Since the great reclassification of astronomical objects in 2006, which saw Pluto lose its planetary status, Mercury has been listed as the smallest planet in the solar system. It is also the second densest, has the oldest planetary surface (parts of which seem to date back almost to the formation of the solar system, 4.5 billion years ago) and experiences the most dramatic daily temperature fluctuations. The mercury, as it were, can hit 400ºC when the sun is above the horizon, yet dips below -150ºC at night. 此行花了这么长的时间是因为探索太阳系内部是一件棘手的事。当航天器向太阳靠近时，重力使其加速。如果没有它的六次近水星飞行（利用能抵消这种影响的行星引力场），信使号就不可能放慢到足以使它落入到预定的轨道。不过撇开到达水星轨道的难度，水星却是一个多趣的目标。由于2006年对天体的重新大排位，冥王星失去了它的行星地位，水星就被列为太阳系中最小的行星。水星也是第二个密度最大的行星，拥有最古老的行星表面（部分表面似乎可以追溯到近乎于45亿年前太阳系的形成），经历着变化最急剧的日温度波动。可以说，水星在太阳位于地平线上时能达到400 º C，而在夜晚时则低于-150 º C。 Messenger has already revealed plenty of tantalising information. Mariner 10 managed to map about 45% of Mercury's surface as it sped past, but Messenger's three fly-bys have filled in the gaps, and there is now a virtually complete map of the place. The surface is a jumble of craters, plains and immense, cliff-like scarps that can be hundreds of kilometres long. Astrogeologists suspect these scarps may be analogous to the wrinkles on a raisin, having formed billions of years ago as the planet's surface cooled and shrank.  信使号已经发现了大量惹人干着急的信息。水手10号在其快速掠过时设法绘制了水星表面大约45％的地图，不过信使号的三次近水星飞行已经填补了空白，现在有了几乎很完整的水星表面地图。水星表面上杂乱地分布着坑洞、平原和巨大的悬崖般的陡坡，陡坡可长达数百公里。太空地质学家猜测这些陡坡可能类似于葡萄干上的皱纹，是在几十亿年前当行星表面冷却收缩时开始形成的。 Indeed, the more that is learnt about Mercury, the more intriguing it becomes. Its density is presumed to indicate a metallic core, probably made mostly of iron. No other explanation is plausible. That core, calculation suggests, takes up around 60% of the planet's volume, making it far larger than the cores of Venus, Earth and Mars, the solar system's other rocky planets. How this has come about is the subject of intense speculation, with three theories jostling for the top spot. Two of these theories hold that Mercury used to be much bigger. Either it was then hit by an asteroid which blasted much of its surface into space, or else the hot, young sun simply vaporised its outer layers. The third theory argues that drag in the dusty nebula from which the solar system formed would have herded the heavier, metal-rich bits of dust in that nebula into orbits close to the sun, and that Mercury eventually condensed from these. Each theory predicts a different mixture of surface rocks. Messenger's instruments should help settle the question and shed more light on the early history of the solar system. 事实上，对水星了解的越多，水星就变得越加引人注目。据推测它的密度表明它的核心是金属的，可能主要由铁制成。没有其它更有说服力的解释。计算表明，水星的核心占其体积的大约60％，远远大于金星、地球和火星这些太阳系其它岩石行星的核心。这个结果怎么来的猜测纷纷，有三种理论稳坐头把交椅。其中两种理论认为，水星过去要大得多。当初它要么是被小行星撞击，其大部分表面爆裂进入太空，要么是因为热，年轻的太阳简单地汽化了其外层。第三种理论则认为，太阳系形成的尘埃星云中的反作用力将会在该星云进入靠近太阳的轨道时把较重的、富含金属的尘埃块聚集在一起，这些尘埃块最终被压缩形成后来大密度的水星。每种理论所预测的组成表面岩石的混合物都不相同。信使号携带的工具应该能帮助我们解决这个问题，并且更清楚地揭示太阳系的早期历史。 There are other mysteries. Neither Mars nor Venus has a magnetic field like the Earth's, which is generated by currents in the planet's molten core. But Mercury does. This field was discovered by Mariner 10. That it was like the Earth's was confirmed in 2008 on one of Messenger's fly-bys. In orbit, the probe will be able to study the field in detail, which should reveal more about Mercury's structure and may suggest how the core has managed to remain molten over the billions of years since the tiny planet was formed. It will also follow up radar data from Earth-based telescopes, which suggest that there may be ice at the planet's poles, locked away from the scorching sun in the bottoms of ancient craters―as is also believed to be the case on the moon.  水星还有其它的奥秘存在。无论是火星还是金星都有同地球一样的磁场，是由行星熔融的核心中的电流产生的。而水星也有。水星磁场是由水手10号发现的。水星磁场同地球的磁场一样，这在2008年信使号的一次近水星飞行中被证实了。探测器将会在轨道上详细研究水星的磁场，这将更多地揭示水星结构，且可能表明自从这颗小小行星形成以来，它的核心如何设法保持了数十亿年的熔融状态。探测器也会跟进补充架设在地球上的望远镜的雷达数据，这表明水星的两极可能存在着冰，被封在远古时期所形成的坑洞底部避开了烈日――我们也相信在月球上存在着同样的情况。 A long to-do list, then. Yet all this attention serves only to show how hard exploring Mercury is. The moon, Mars, Venus, two asteroids and even one of the moons of Saturn have all received the attentions of landing craft. The surface of Mercury, too, was to have been visited in 2020, courtesy of a joint European and Japanese mission called BepiColombo. But that landing was cancelled in 2004, though two orbiters should still make the journey. So, despite all the fresh attention Messenger will give it, Mercury will remain the least-explored of the inner planets for some time yet.  之后会造成一段长期的骚动。然而，这次光顾的一切都只表明探索水星是如何的艰难。月球、火星、金星、两个小行星、甚至连土星的卫星之一都已接受过登陆飞船的光顾。假如水星的表面也将在2020年被到访，这要感谢一项被称为水星探测器的欧日合作任务。但是，2004年取消了这次计划中的登陆，不过仍将有两颗人造卫星登上旅程。因此，撇开信使号将给予的最新光顾的一切，在一段时间内水星仍将保持内行星中被探测最少的记录。 from the print edition | Science and Technology

The birth of the New Deal

Triangle Shirtwaist
纽约三角女衬衫工厂

The birth of the New Deal
新政的起源

A blaze that galvanised the labour movement 
工厂大火引发了工人运动

Mar 17th 2011 | NEW YORK | from the print edition


No way out for many

THE fire at the Triangle Shirtwaist factory on March 25th 1911 began just before the end of the working day; some of the workers had already put on their hats. Escape routes were limited. One of the doors was locked and the New York fire brigade's ladders only reached the sixth storey, 30 feet (9 metres) short of the burning floors. Half an hour after the alarm, the fire was mostly out, but 146 people were dead. Most were women, many were in their teens and almost all were Jewish or Italian immigrants. More than 50 burned to death on the factory floor, 19 fell into the lift-shaft, at least 20 died when the overburdened fire escape broke free of the building and 53 jumped or fell from the windows.

1911年3月25日，三角女式衬衫工厂发生火灾，当时还没到下班时间，有的工人已戴上帽子准备离开。因为逃生通道很少，其中一个上锁，纽约消防队的梯子只能够到6层，离火灾事故地还差30英尺（9米），所以警报后半小时，尽管火几乎扑灭，还是有146人丧生。大多数是妇女，许多还只是十几岁的女孩，他们几乎都是犹太人或意大利移民过来的。50多人在火灾现场活活烧死，19人丧生于紧急通道中，当时火势已蔓延整座大楼，53人不得不选择跳楼，至少 20人身亡。

Many of the horrified onlookers would have known that the Triangle had been part of a 20,000 strong citywide garment industry strike the previous year. New York's strikers wanted unionised workplaces, safer working conditions, better pay and shorter hours. But Triangle's owners would not allow the workers to unionise. The tragedy became a catalyst for a broad range of reforms. A state commission investigated the fire, but also took on issues such as low wages, long hours, child labour and safety. 

许多受惊的旁观者应该有所耳闻，该厂女工去年参加过2万人次全市服装业罢工，他们要求改善工作地点、工作条件，增加工资且减少工作时间，希望通过工会来解决这些问题，但是三角女式衬衫工厂雇主反对工人组成工会。这场悲剧促成一系列的改革运动，国家委员会还彻查了此案，也开始处理一些事件，如工资低、工作时间长、童工雇佣以及安全事故问题。

Within a few years the city and the state had adopted 36 new laws, the country's most comprehensive labour rules and public-safety codes. They served as a model for other states and the New Deal's labour legislation of the 1930s., later Franklin Roosevelt's labour secretary, was one of those who watched the fire. She later called March 25th 1911 the day the New Deal began. Before the fire, unions tended to tackle owners individually. Afterwards, they had the law on their side.

几年内，市政府和州政府相继出台了36部新法，堪称国内最综合的劳动法和公共安全法，并且还成为了其他州和30年代新政劳动立法的法律典范。Frances Perkins，后来是罗斯福劳动法秘书，因曾亲眼目睹那场大火，后来将1911年3月25日定为新政的起源日。事故发生前，工会通常和雇主单独交涉，事故后，法律也站在他们一边，增加了谈判的砝码。

Lee Adler, who teaches collective bargaining at Cornell University, sees parallels between the way the sweat-shop owners treated their workers and how a few governors in the Midwest are treating civil servants these days. The comparison is perhaps farfetched. But the anniversary does remind America why unions were needed. Last week 100,000 people protested against the governor of Wisconsin's assault on public-sector collective bargaining. A hundred years ago 400,000 attended the memorial service for those who died, in part, because they could not unionise.

Lee Adler，在康奈尔大学教劳资谈判，最近将血汗工厂主对待工人的态度与中西部地区的省长对待公务员的态度做了对比，尽管这种对比很牵强，但是这个周年纪念日的确提醒了美国为什么需要工会的存在。上周，100,000人抗议反对威斯康辛州州长取消州政府雇员集体谈判权的法案。100年前，400,000人参加追悼会，追悼那些为组成工会而献身的人

 

The cost of calamity

Economics focus

经济焦点

The cost of calamity

灾难的代价

The economic impact of natural disasters is often short-lived. Will this be the case in Japan? 

自然灾害产生的经济影响维持时间通常不久。日本这次也不例外吗？

Mar 17th 2011 | from the print edition 



THE full extent of the damage from the tsunami that hit Japan's north-eastern coast on March 11th is not yet known, but early estimates of the cost are big. Rebuilding homes, factories, roads and bridges could cost as much as $200 billion, some reckon. Quite apart from these direct costs, is the disaster likely to do lasting harm to Japan's economy?

3月11日袭击日本东北海岸的海啸所造成的全部损失还不得而知，但就目前的评估结果来看，损失相当惨重。有人说，房屋，工厂，公路以及桥梁的重建意味着多达2000亿美元的花费。先撇开这些直接损失不说，这次灾难对日本经济带来的伤害是否会持续很久呢？

Much will depend on the success of efforts to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. Assuming the situation at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant stabilises, the contours of the economic impact of the tsunami itself can already be discerned. Natural disasters disrupt production, much as less destructive episodes of bad weather do. In Japan the interruption to electricity supply means that output has been affected even in areas the tsunami did not directly inundate. Toyota, for example, halted production because of problems with parts and supplies. Operations were suspended in six of Sony's factories, only one of which was flooded. 

这在很大程度上取决于日本是否能成功阻止核灾难的发生。如果当时福岛一号核反应堆的状况成功被稳定住，海啸本身产生的经济影响应该已经被限定在一个明确的范围内了。自然灾害破坏生产力，这一点跟天灾一样，尽管天灾的破坏力要小一点。断电对日本来说，意味着即使在没有被海啸直接淹没的地区，生产也受到了影响。例如丰田停产正是因为汽车零部件和供应商方面出现了问题。索尼六个分厂都停止了运营，虽然其中只有一个被海啸淹没。

But such disruption is unlikely to persist. On March 16th Toyota announced that it was restarting the production of spare parts. As with bad weather, disasters cause some output to be postponed rather than lost. When production resumes, it is likely to be at a faster clip than usual. Studies of the economic effects of past natural disasters, as well as Japan's own experience after the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, provide further reassurance. They suggest that the macroeconomic effects of the tsunami, though hardly negligible, will not be devastating and will not last very long.

但停产现象不太可能延续下去。3月16日，丰田宣布重新开工生产备用零部件。有一点跟天灾一样，自然灾害延后一些成品的生产时间而不是不能生产。当生产恢复的时候，生产速度很可能就比常速快一些。对以往自然灾害造成的经济影响的研究，以及日本95年阪神大地震发生后得出的自身经验都能进一步支持这个说法。两者均显示，海啸的宏观经济影响，不能说无足轻重，但不会造成根本性的破坏，持续时间也不会很长。

How much a natural disaster reduces output over the medium term depends on a number of factors. Location matters: disasters that strike an industrial belt will be more economically crippling than ones that hit an area where little is produced; the economic effects of the tsunami would have been much worse if it had struck Japan's industrial heartland. And different kinds of natural disasters have different consequences for growth. In the medium term, not all effects are negative. A 2009 World Bank study found that by increasing soil fertility, a typical flood increases agricultural output in the year after it strikes (though output falls in the year it occurs). The benefits from higher agricultural production spill over to other sectors, and in developing countries where the farm sector is a bigger part of the economy this may be enough to lead to faster growth in manufacturing and services in subsequent years. 

从中期来看，一场自然灾害会减少多少生产取决于几个因素。对生产力的影响跟地理位置有关：击中工业带比击中几乎无生产能力地区的灾害经济后果要更加严重；倘若这次海啸集中了日本工业的中心带，那它的经济影响要严重得多。而不同类型的自然灾害对经济增长的影响也有所不同。从中期角度来说，并不是所有影响都是消极的。2009年世界银行的一份研究报告指出，一般洪水会让土地更加肥沃，因此遭受洪灾的土地的农业产量在来年反而会增加（尽管在洪灾当年产量会下降）。农业产量增加带来的好处会蔓延至其他产业，而在农业作为经济体中最大组成部分的发展中国家，这样的好处也许会大到让制造业和服务业在接下来的几年里经历更快的增长。

Earthquakes, on the other hand, have small but consistently negative effects on economic growth. This is because earthquakes do not just shut production down for a while. They also destroy factories, roads, electricity lines and offices. This destruction does not directly reduce a country's GDP, which measures the value of the flow of goods and services that an economy produces. But it does affect an economy's underlying productive capacity. The Japanese tsunami fits this template.

另一方面，地震对经济增长的消极影响很小，但具有持续性。这是因为地震造成的结果并不只是短期停产，还会破坏工厂，道路，电线和办公场所。这些被破坏的设施不会直接减少一国的GDP,因为GDP是根据一个经济体生产提供的所有商品服务的流量价值来衡量的。但它们会影响到一个经济潜在的生产能力。日本这次的海啸造成的正是这种情况。

As long as these assets remain out of commission, the output they would have produced is, in theory, lost. In practice, this negative effect can partly be made up by using plant and machinery in areas unaffected by the disaster. Most factories do not run at full steam all the time; output from plants that are still working can be increased to make up for lost production elsewhere. 

只要这些资产没有投入使用，理论上可以说，假设它们投入使用而能够产出的产品算是损失了。但实际上，可以通过未受灾害影响的工厂和机器抵消部分消极影响。多数工厂并不是一直都开足产能运行；还在正常生产的工厂可以增加产量，为其他分厂损失的产量做出一部分补足。

An analysis of the effect of the Kobe earthquake by George Horwich of Purdue University provides some reason to hope that this might happen in Japan. The quake ravaged many of the facilities of what was then the world's sixth-largest container port and the source of nearly 40% of Kobe's industrial output. Over 100,000 buildings were completely destroyed, and many more badly damaged; 300,000 people were rendered homeless; over 6,000 died. Yet despite this devastation in a big production centre, the local economy recovered very fast. Even though less than half the port facilities had been rebuilt by that stage, within a year import volumes through the port had recovered fully and export volumes were nearly back to where they would have been without the disaster. Less than 15 months after the earthquake, in March 1996, manufacturing activity in greater Kobe was at 98% of its projected pre-quake level. 

普渡大学的George Horwich就阪神大地震影响做出的分析报告为我们提供了一些希望日本也许能出现上述情况的理由。当时的地震蹂躏了当时被成为世界第六大集装箱码头――神户的许多设施及其近40%工业产品的原材料。超过10万幢建筑被完全破坏，还有很多受到严重破坏；30万人被迫流离失所；6000多人死亡。但是尽管这样的毁灭性破坏发生在生产中心地带，地方经济却恢复得非常快。一年以后，码头设施的重建才完成了不到一半，但神户的进口额已经完全恢复，出口额也几乎达到即使没有地震才会达到的水平。那次地震后不到15个月，1996年3月，神户的制造业发展已到达震前所定目标水平的98%。

Mr Horwich reckons that the likely reason for this rebound in output and economic activity, even as swathes of infrastructure still lay in ruins, is that output can be produced using different combinations of labour and capital. Although a disaster may destroy physical capital, things can be made using more labour or using it more intensively than before. In addition, rebuilding is easier than building up capital the first time around, because it mainly aims to replicate a pattern of investment rather than figure out what to invest in. And productivity growth may accelerate when new, and often superior, machinery is installed.

Horwich认为，在这种即使基础设施满目苍夷尚未恢复的情况下出现的产量和经济活动反弹，其中原因可能在于利用不同的劳动力资本配置来进行生产。尽管灾害可能会破坏物理资本，产品还是可以通过使用更多劳动力或者在原本基础上增加劳动强度来生产。另外，重建比起首次建造资本要容易，因为重建的主要目的在于再造投资模式而不需要再思考怎么投资。当崭新而且通常更先进的机器安装好之后，生产力也许会快速得到提高。

A glimmer, at least

至少还有一线光明

Reconstruction itself, of course, also helps to offset the negative impact of a drop in output in the aftermath of a disaster. Business booms for builders and producers of capital goods. Disasters probably do not actually stimulate the economy because additional production in some sectors may be displacing spending elsewhere, though this is less of a worry in an economy with a lot of spare capacity. Certainly, the year of the Kobe quake was not a bad one for the Japanese economy, which grew by 1.9% in 1995 compared with 0.9% growth in 1994. 

当然，重建本身会对灾害带来的GDP下降这样的消极后果起到部分抵消作用。建筑商和资本商品生产商会生意兴隆。灾害事实上也许不会对经济起到刺激作用，因为某些产业的额外产量也许正被其他产业的花费所取代，但这对于一个有充分闲置产能的经济体来说不成问题。显然，阪神大地震对于日本经济来说并不坏，它导致日本经济和1994年的0.9%相比，在1995年增长了1.9%。

There are grounds to hope, then, that this month's terrible events will not cause lasting damage to Japan's economy. But there are worries, too. The nuclear crisis adds greatly to uncertainty. Consumer and business confidence is fragile. With interest rates already at zero, policymakers have little wiggle room. Japan's manufacturing sector is running closer to full capacity now than in the mid-1990s, making it harder to make up for lost output. When disasters occur can matter as much to the economy as how bad they are. 

那么，我们就有理由对本月的严重灾害不会给日本经济带来持续性破坏这一点寄予希望。但也有让人担心的地方。核危机大大增加了不确定性。消费者和商业信心变得十分脆弱。利率已经是零，政策制定者几乎没有回旋的余地。跟90年代中期相比，日本当今的制造业产能更加接近饱和，这让补足损失掉的产量显得更加困难。灾害发生的时机与本身的严重程度对经济具有同样的影响力。