North Korea's economy
朝鲜经济
Exogenous zones
外援经济特区
An opening for Chinese investment in a benighted country
蒙昧之国开启中方投资
Start again
又开始了
NORTH KOREA aims to become a Gangseong Daeguk―a strong and prosperous nation―by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the reclusive state's founder, the late Kim Il Sung. With just half a year to go, it will be a stretch for the near-bankrupt dictatorship to overcome the misrule continuing under his son, Kim Jong Il. All the same, the recent announcement that two special economic zones will be developed with the co-operation of China might just signal the start of a big change for the stricken country.
朝鲜打算在2012年之前成为强盛大国。2012年是这一封闭国家缔造者――已故的金日成100周年诞辰。到2012年只有半年时间，这个几乎破产的独裁政权将无力扭转金日成和其儿子金正日长期治理不当的颓势。与此同时，朝鲜将与中国合作开发两个经济特区，这一最新通告可能是这个摇摇欲坠之国将发生巨变的信号。
Rajin-Sonbong (or Rason, for short) lies by the Sea of Japan in the country's north-east, near the border with Russia. Hwanggumpyong is a sandy island at the mouth of the Yalu river that divides North Korea from China. Both are to be developed with Chinese support and then run along broadly market-driven lines. The focus appears to be on logistics, raw materials and manufacturing. At the moment even the most basic infrastructure is lacking. A groundbreaking ceremony for Hwanggumpyong has just taken place, attended by China's commerce minister, Chen Deming, and the most powerful non-Kim in the North Korean regime, Jang Song Taek.
罗津先锋经济特区（或简称为罗先）位于日本海的旁边、朝鲜的东北部、靠近俄罗斯的边境。黄金坪是把朝鲜和中国分开的鸭绿江口的一处沙岛。这两处都将在中国援助下开发，然后大体上贯以市场为导向之准绳。物流、原材料、制造业似乎是开发区的核心业务。不过现在，即便是最基本的基础设施都很不足。中国商务部长陈德铭和朝鲜政权"非金氏"人物中最有权势的张成泽刚刚参加了黄金坪奠基典礼。
Hopes that North Korea was about to change have been raised before, only to be dashed. Rajin-Sonbong itself was originally declared a special zone in 1991, and had lavish backing from the United Nations Development Programme. Then mismanagement and poor infrastructure put paid to early hopes. A casino financed by Hong Kong investors was shut down when hordes of Chinese officials went to gamble away public funds. In 2002 North Korea chose a tycoon, Yang Bin, then China's second-richest man, to develop a special zone by the Yalu. It too came to naught, when Mr Yang was arrested in China for tax evasion. Special zones apart, traders and investors from China were badly burned by the regime's sudden and disastrous confiscation of the old currency in 2009.
人们此前对朝鲜即将改弦更张抱有希望，却以失望告终。罗津先锋经济特区在1991年被宣布开始成为特区，且有联合国开发计划署的大力支持。管理不善和基础设施薄弱让早期的希望化为乌有。由香港投资者筹资的赌场在大陆官员蜂拥前往输掉公款之后就被关闭了。2002年，朝鲜选择中国第二富豪杨斌在鸭绿江开发一个特区。当杨斌以偷税漏税罪名被中国逮捕以后，特区又无疾而终了。2009年，除了特区，来自中国的贸易商和投资者因为朝鲜政权突然没收旧版货币而遭受巨大损失。
China, the regime's last protector, has long been frustrated by North Korean intransigence, not least over economic reform. Mr Kim has often visited China and praised the development model there, only to do nothing when he got home. Liberalisation has never come at the expense of the regime's grip on power, however impoverished it renders ordinary folk.
长期以来，朝鲜政权的最后保护者中国对于朝鲜的不妥协不让步――而不仅仅是其经济改革――感到失望。金正日经常访问中国并赞扬那里的发展模式，回到朝鲜后却无所作为。无论其独裁统治将给普通百姓带来怎样的贫穷灾难。朝鲜的自由化从来不会以牺牲独裁者权力的方式实现。
Perhaps this time might be different. Last year's rehabilitation of a reform-minded former prime minister, Pak Pong Ju, hints at leanings toward economic change. International sanctions over its nuclear programmes have left North Korea more dependent than ever on China, with which it conducts four-fifths of its trade. With greater leverage, China might now be getting its way. Rason offers a port on the Sea of Japan, something denied China since it ceded Outer Manchuria to Russia in the mid-19th century.
也许这次可能会不一样。朝鲜去年将具有改革头脑的前总理朴凤柱官复原职，暗示其有经济转变之倾向。国际社会对朝鲜核计划进行制裁，使得朝鲜对中国更加依赖，朝中贸易额已占据朝鲜贸易总额的4/5。随着影响力加大，中国现在也许能够如其所愿。罗先经济特区在日本海提供一个港口。自中国19世纪中叶割让外满洲给俄国之后，这一港口就拒绝为其所用。
Despite the two countries' professed fraternal love, Mr Kim will resent greater Chinese influence. But should Chinese-style capitalism gain greater traction in North Korea, the consequences are hard to predict. It might provide Mr Kim with the money for clinging to power. Or else it might expose the country's economic failings, bringing in an unbiddable tidal wave of change from outside.
尽管两国公开声称有兄弟般的情谊，金正日对不断加大的中国影响只会心怀怨恨。不过，中国式资本主义能否在朝鲜起到更大的带动作用，结果很难预料。它也许为金正日攥紧权力提供了资金支持。或者，它也许能够暴露朝鲜的经济失败，带来难以控制的、由外而内改变的浪潮。
from the print edition | Asia
朝鲜经济
Exogenous zones
外援经济特区
An opening for Chinese investment in a benighted country
蒙昧之国开启中方投资
Start again
又开始了
NORTH KOREA aims to become a Gangseong Daeguk―a strong and prosperous nation―by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the reclusive state's founder, the late Kim Il Sung. With just half a year to go, it will be a stretch for the near-bankrupt dictatorship to overcome the misrule continuing under his son, Kim Jong Il. All the same, the recent announcement that two special economic zones will be developed with the co-operation of China might just signal the start of a big change for the stricken country.
朝鲜打算在2012年之前成为强盛大国。2012年是这一封闭国家缔造者――已故的金日成100周年诞辰。到2012年只有半年时间，这个几乎破产的独裁政权将无力扭转金日成和其儿子金正日长期治理不当的颓势。与此同时，朝鲜将与中国合作开发两个经济特区，这一最新通告可能是这个摇摇欲坠之国将发生巨变的信号。
Rajin-Sonbong (or Rason, for short) lies by the Sea of Japan in the country's north-east, near the border with Russia. Hwanggumpyong is a sandy island at the mouth of the Yalu river that divides North Korea from China. Both are to be developed with Chinese support and then run along broadly market-driven lines. The focus appears to be on logistics, raw materials and manufacturing. At the moment even the most basic infrastructure is lacking. A groundbreaking ceremony for Hwanggumpyong has just taken place, attended by China's commerce minister, Chen Deming, and the most powerful non-Kim in the North Korean regime, Jang Song Taek.
罗津先锋经济特区（或简称为罗先）位于日本海的旁边、朝鲜的东北部、靠近俄罗斯的边境。黄金坪是把朝鲜和中国分开的鸭绿江口的一处沙岛。这两处都将在中国援助下开发，然后大体上贯以市场为导向之准绳。物流、原材料、制造业似乎是开发区的核心业务。不过现在，即便是最基本的基础设施都很不足。中国商务部长陈德铭和朝鲜政权"非金氏"人物中最有权势的张成泽刚刚参加了黄金坪奠基典礼。
Hopes that North Korea was about to change have been raised before, only to be dashed. Rajin-Sonbong itself was originally declared a special zone in 1991, and had lavish backing from the United Nations Development Programme. Then mismanagement and poor infrastructure put paid to early hopes. A casino financed by Hong Kong investors was shut down when hordes of Chinese officials went to gamble away public funds. In 2002 North Korea chose a tycoon, Yang Bin, then China's second-richest man, to develop a special zone by the Yalu. It too came to naught, when Mr Yang was arrested in China for tax evasion. Special zones apart, traders and investors from China were badly burned by the regime's sudden and disastrous confiscation of the old currency in 2009.
人们此前对朝鲜即将改弦更张抱有希望，却以失望告终。罗津先锋经济特区在1991年被宣布开始成为特区，且有联合国开发计划署的大力支持。管理不善和基础设施薄弱让早期的希望化为乌有。由香港投资者筹资的赌场在大陆官员蜂拥前往输掉公款之后就被关闭了。2002年，朝鲜选择中国第二富豪杨斌在鸭绿江开发一个特区。当杨斌以偷税漏税罪名被中国逮捕以后，特区又无疾而终了。2009年，除了特区，来自中国的贸易商和投资者因为朝鲜政权突然没收旧版货币而遭受巨大损失。
China, the regime's last protector, has long been frustrated by North Korean intransigence, not least over economic reform. Mr Kim has often visited China and praised the development model there, only to do nothing when he got home. Liberalisation has never come at the expense of the regime's grip on power, however impoverished it renders ordinary folk.
长期以来，朝鲜政权的最后保护者中国对于朝鲜的不妥协不让步――而不仅仅是其经济改革――感到失望。金正日经常访问中国并赞扬那里的发展模式，回到朝鲜后却无所作为。无论其独裁统治将给普通百姓带来怎样的贫穷灾难。朝鲜的自由化从来不会以牺牲独裁者权力的方式实现。
Perhaps this time might be different. Last year's rehabilitation of a reform-minded former prime minister, Pak Pong Ju, hints at leanings toward economic change. International sanctions over its nuclear programmes have left North Korea more dependent than ever on China, with which it conducts four-fifths of its trade. With greater leverage, China might now be getting its way. Rason offers a port on the Sea of Japan, something denied China since it ceded Outer Manchuria to Russia in the mid-19th century.
也许这次可能会不一样。朝鲜去年将具有改革头脑的前总理朴凤柱官复原职，暗示其有经济转变之倾向。国际社会对朝鲜核计划进行制裁，使得朝鲜对中国更加依赖，朝中贸易额已占据朝鲜贸易总额的4/5。随着影响力加大，中国现在也许能够如其所愿。罗先经济特区在日本海提供一个港口。自中国19世纪中叶割让外满洲给俄国之后，这一港口就拒绝为其所用。
Despite the two countries' professed fraternal love, Mr Kim will resent greater Chinese influence. But should Chinese-style capitalism gain greater traction in North Korea, the consequences are hard to predict. It might provide Mr Kim with the money for clinging to power. Or else it might expose the country's economic failings, bringing in an unbiddable tidal wave of change from outside.
尽管两国公开声称有兄弟般的情谊，金正日对不断加大的中国影响只会心怀怨恨。不过，中国式资本主义能否在朝鲜起到更大的带动作用，结果很难预料。它也许为金正日攥紧权力提供了资金支持。或者，它也许能够暴露朝鲜的经济失败，带来难以控制的、由外而内改变的浪潮。
from the print edition | Asia
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