Waiting for the great fall
大跌可待
Some hedge funds continue to short the China dream
对冲基金持续做空中国梦
Jan 20th 2011 | NEW YORK| from PRINT EDITION
A YEAR has passed since Jim Chanos, a well-known short-seller, predicted in a speech at the London School of Economics that China's property boom would end up like "Dubai times 1,000, or worse". Easy credit and frenzied investment, he argued, were creating a huge bubble in the prices of property and other assets. Bears also believed that the high degree of state direction in the Chinese economy was not an advantage, as many admirers liked to imagine, but a chronic weakness that fostered opacity, corruption and the misallocation of capital. When the pessimists dreamed of China they did not see Pudong's glittering skyline, but newly built ghost cities hidden in the hinterland and yuppies drowning in debt.
一年前，以卖空出名的投资家Jim Chanos在伦敦政治经济学院的一次演讲中预测，中国地产业的繁荣最终将重蹈"1000倍于，甚至更糟糕"的迪拜的覆辙。他认为，中国的信贷宽松和投资过热导致地产和其它资产价格的巨大泡沫。看空者也认为中国经济的政府主导性并不像认同者想象的那样美好，反而成为了不透明，腐败以及资本分配不当等长期弊病的根源所在。悲观者眼中浮现的中国是穷乡僻壤中新盖好的鬼城，是年轻的中产阶级挣扎在债务中越陷越深的景象，而非那些浦东区炫目的高楼大厦形成的天际线。
China has not plunged as Mr Chanos and a few fellow bears said it would. But he insists it has "already been a pretty good short". Last year Chinese stocks performed poorly. The Shanghai bourse fell by about 14%. Most mainstream investors and plenty of Chinese officials also now fret about China's ability to curb inflation and its state-controlled banks' capacity to lend so freely while avoiding a bad-debt problem. In sum, "2010 was a year when a lot of China bears, if they weren't totally vindicated, were given a lot of credibility," says Jim Rickards, senior managing director of Tangent Capital, a merchant bank that advises hedge funds.
中国并没有出现Chanos先生和其它看空人士认为的衰退。但Chanos坚持中国"已经显现做空的苗头"。去年中国股市表现差强人意。上证综指全年跌幅约14%。大部分主要投资者和很多中国官员目前都担心中国治理通胀的能力，国有银行自由放贷的背后隐藏的坏账问题。总之， "2010年是很多做空者不能被反驳就会被认同的一年。"一家为对冲基金作咨询的商业银行Tangent Capital公司的总经理Jim Rickards如是说。
If making your mind up about whether China will get into trouble is hard, the mechanics of betting against it are tricky too. "I've encountered a huge amount of interest over the last year in shorting China," says someone based in Asia who advises hedge funds on the country. But because short-selling is mostly prohibited in mainland China, it is only practical to bet against the shares of those mainland companies that are listed offshore, mainly in Hong Kong and New York.
如果说判断中国是否会陷入泥潭很困难，那么寻求做空机制也不容易。"我去年遇到过不少对做空中国经济有兴趣的人，"一位在亚洲想对冲基金提供咨询的人说。但中国大陆基本禁止卖空，所以只能做空在海外上市的大陆公司，这类公司主要位于香港和纽约。
A few bears are really betting against companies, not the wider economy. Some of the more heavily shorted Chinese stocks listed on NASDAQ, an American exchange, are considered by pessimists to have poor-quality profits and to be hard to understand. But most short-sellers have a broader horizon. One popular view is that if China's property bubble bursts it will drive down the share prices of Hong Kong-listed property firms. Three of the ten most popular stocks to short on the Hong Kong stock-exchange are property companies, according to Data Explorers, a research and analysis firm.
少数做空者已经在做空某些上市公司而非整体经济。美国纳斯达克上市的部分高估值的中国企业在悲观者眼里认为其盈利能力差得让人难以理解。但大部分的卖空者看得更长远。广为接受的一种观点认为中国房地产泡沫破裂后会压低香港上市地产公司的股价。根据一家研究与分析公司Data Explorers的数据统计，香港股市上30%受做空者青睐的上市公司为房地产公司。
Shorting the world's big commodity firms is another obvious strategy. A recent report by Fitch, a ratings agency, estimates that if China's growth falls to 5% this year (from the projected 10%), global commodity prices could plunge by as much as 20%. Many big Western natural-resources firms, particularly those that dig up iron ore and other metals, have come to rely on China as by far their biggest customer. Their share prices would tumble if the country's construction and capital-expenditure boom abruptly ended. A derivative of the same trade is to short the currency of Australia, a big raw-materials supplier to China.
可见，做空世界上大型大宗商品企业是做空者需要采取的显而易见的策略。评级机构Fitch报告指出，预计今年中国今年国家增长会跌到5%（原预测10%），全球大宗商品价格下降20%。对于西方很多大型资源型企业，尤其是铁矿石和其他金属类资源公司，中国已经成为其最大客户。如果中国繁荣的基建和投资拉动型经济嘎然而止，公司股价会立刻大幅波动。另一衍生交易可采取做空中国最大原材料供应商澳大利亚的货币澳元。
Other hedge funds are placing even more oblique bets. Eclectica Asset Management, a firm based in London that has launched a fund focused on China, has reportedly taken out credit-default swaps on bonds from Japanese industrial companies, which may be vulnerable to a reversal of China's construction boom.
一些对冲基金甚至玩起了不太地道的赌注。据报道，位于伦敦的Eclectica资产管理公司就针对中国投保了某些日本企业的信用违约掉期（CDS），这些企业可能会受到中国经济衰退的波及。
Overall, though, it is hard to argue that investor sentiment has shifted markedly against China. True, some bulls are becoming more cautious. This week Tim Moe, chief Asia-Pacific strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the bank had "held on too long to our overweight position in China last year", and added that "the longer-term picture of Asia outperforming the US is taking a breather." But total short positions on Chinese stocks listed in America or Hong Kong have not jumped in the past year and are at fairly low levels (see chart). "Mega-bears" are still a small minority. But as any short-seller will tell you, being lonely is just the precursor to being right.
总之，现在还很难说投资者情绪明显转向中国。现实是多头开始谨慎。本周，高盛亚太区首席策略师Tim Moe说，银行"去年在中国投入了过多精力和时间，并说"长期以来亚洲超越美国的现状会暂告一段落。"但从去年来看，美国和香港的中资公司股价空头头寸并未有所表现，而且所占比例也不高（见图）。"超级空头"仍是少数。但正如卖空者所言，少数人的观点才是正确的观点
大跌可待
Some hedge funds continue to short the China dream
对冲基金持续做空中国梦
Jan 20th 2011 | NEW YORK| from PRINT EDITION
A YEAR has passed since Jim Chanos, a well-known short-seller, predicted in a speech at the London School of Economics that China's property boom would end up like "Dubai times 1,000, or worse". Easy credit and frenzied investment, he argued, were creating a huge bubble in the prices of property and other assets. Bears also believed that the high degree of state direction in the Chinese economy was not an advantage, as many admirers liked to imagine, but a chronic weakness that fostered opacity, corruption and the misallocation of capital. When the pessimists dreamed of China they did not see Pudong's glittering skyline, but newly built ghost cities hidden in the hinterland and yuppies drowning in debt.
一年前，以卖空出名的投资家Jim Chanos在伦敦政治经济学院的一次演讲中预测，中国地产业的繁荣最终将重蹈"1000倍于，甚至更糟糕"的迪拜的覆辙。他认为，中国的信贷宽松和投资过热导致地产和其它资产价格的巨大泡沫。看空者也认为中国经济的政府主导性并不像认同者想象的那样美好，反而成为了不透明，腐败以及资本分配不当等长期弊病的根源所在。悲观者眼中浮现的中国是穷乡僻壤中新盖好的鬼城，是年轻的中产阶级挣扎在债务中越陷越深的景象，而非那些浦东区炫目的高楼大厦形成的天际线。
China has not plunged as Mr Chanos and a few fellow bears said it would. But he insists it has "already been a pretty good short". Last year Chinese stocks performed poorly. The Shanghai bourse fell by about 14%. Most mainstream investors and plenty of Chinese officials also now fret about China's ability to curb inflation and its state-controlled banks' capacity to lend so freely while avoiding a bad-debt problem. In sum, "2010 was a year when a lot of China bears, if they weren't totally vindicated, were given a lot of credibility," says Jim Rickards, senior managing director of Tangent Capital, a merchant bank that advises hedge funds.
中国并没有出现Chanos先生和其它看空人士认为的衰退。但Chanos坚持中国"已经显现做空的苗头"。去年中国股市表现差强人意。上证综指全年跌幅约14%。大部分主要投资者和很多中国官员目前都担心中国治理通胀的能力，国有银行自由放贷的背后隐藏的坏账问题。总之， "2010年是很多做空者不能被反驳就会被认同的一年。"一家为对冲基金作咨询的商业银行Tangent Capital公司的总经理Jim Rickards如是说。
If making your mind up about whether China will get into trouble is hard, the mechanics of betting against it are tricky too. "I've encountered a huge amount of interest over the last year in shorting China," says someone based in Asia who advises hedge funds on the country. But because short-selling is mostly prohibited in mainland China, it is only practical to bet against the shares of those mainland companies that are listed offshore, mainly in Hong Kong and New York.
如果说判断中国是否会陷入泥潭很困难，那么寻求做空机制也不容易。"我去年遇到过不少对做空中国经济有兴趣的人，"一位在亚洲想对冲基金提供咨询的人说。但中国大陆基本禁止卖空，所以只能做空在海外上市的大陆公司，这类公司主要位于香港和纽约。
A few bears are really betting against companies, not the wider economy. Some of the more heavily shorted Chinese stocks listed on NASDAQ, an American exchange, are considered by pessimists to have poor-quality profits and to be hard to understand. But most short-sellers have a broader horizon. One popular view is that if China's property bubble bursts it will drive down the share prices of Hong Kong-listed property firms. Three of the ten most popular stocks to short on the Hong Kong stock-exchange are property companies, according to Data Explorers, a research and analysis firm.
少数做空者已经在做空某些上市公司而非整体经济。美国纳斯达克上市的部分高估值的中国企业在悲观者眼里认为其盈利能力差得让人难以理解。但大部分的卖空者看得更长远。广为接受的一种观点认为中国房地产泡沫破裂后会压低香港上市地产公司的股价。根据一家研究与分析公司Data Explorers的数据统计，香港股市上30%受做空者青睐的上市公司为房地产公司。
Shorting the world's big commodity firms is another obvious strategy. A recent report by Fitch, a ratings agency, estimates that if China's growth falls to 5% this year (from the projected 10%), global commodity prices could plunge by as much as 20%. Many big Western natural-resources firms, particularly those that dig up iron ore and other metals, have come to rely on China as by far their biggest customer. Their share prices would tumble if the country's construction and capital-expenditure boom abruptly ended. A derivative of the same trade is to short the currency of Australia, a big raw-materials supplier to China.
可见，做空世界上大型大宗商品企业是做空者需要采取的显而易见的策略。评级机构Fitch报告指出，预计今年中国今年国家增长会跌到5%（原预测10%），全球大宗商品价格下降20%。对于西方很多大型资源型企业，尤其是铁矿石和其他金属类资源公司，中国已经成为其最大客户。如果中国繁荣的基建和投资拉动型经济嘎然而止，公司股价会立刻大幅波动。另一衍生交易可采取做空中国最大原材料供应商澳大利亚的货币澳元。
Other hedge funds are placing even more oblique bets. Eclectica Asset Management, a firm based in London that has launched a fund focused on China, has reportedly taken out credit-default swaps on bonds from Japanese industrial companies, which may be vulnerable to a reversal of China's construction boom.
一些对冲基金甚至玩起了不太地道的赌注。据报道，位于伦敦的Eclectica资产管理公司就针对中国投保了某些日本企业的信用违约掉期（CDS），这些企业可能会受到中国经济衰退的波及。
Overall, though, it is hard to argue that investor sentiment has shifted markedly against China. True, some bulls are becoming more cautious. This week Tim Moe, chief Asia-Pacific strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the bank had "held on too long to our overweight position in China last year", and added that "the longer-term picture of Asia outperforming the US is taking a breather." But total short positions on Chinese stocks listed in America or Hong Kong have not jumped in the past year and are at fairly low levels (see chart). "Mega-bears" are still a small minority. But as any short-seller will tell you, being lonely is just the precursor to being right.
总之，现在还很难说投资者情绪明显转向中国。现实是多头开始谨慎。本周，高盛亚太区首席策略师Tim Moe说，银行"去年在中国投入了过多精力和时间，并说"长期以来亚洲超越美国的现状会暂告一段落。"但从去年来看，美国和香港的中资公司股价空头头寸并未有所表现，而且所占比例也不高（见图）。"超级空头"仍是少数。但正如卖空者所言，少数人的观点才是正确的观点
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