| Human evolution 人类进化 Why music? 音乐缘何而起？ Dec 18th 2008 From The Economist print edition Biologists are addressing one of humanity's strangest attributes, its all-singing, all-dancing culture 生物学家正在对人类最怪异的特征――载歌载舞的文化――加以解释 "IF MUSIC be the food of love, play on, give me excess of it." And if not? Well, what exactly is it for? The production and consumption of music is a big part of the economy. The first use to which commercial recording, in the form of Edison's phonographs, was to bring music to the living rooms and picnic tables of those who could not afford to pay live musicians. Today, people are so surrounded by other people's music that they take it for granted, but as little as 100 years ago singsongs at home, the choir in the church and fiddlers in the pub were all that most people heard. "如果音乐是爱的食粮，奏下去，直到漫溢。"如果不是呢？究竟音乐是为了什么？音乐的生产和消费是经济的重要组成部分。以爱迪生的留声机形式首度出现的商业录音，就是为了将音乐带入那些请不起现场乐队的家庭，引入他们的客厅和野餐桌上。今天，人们已经被音乐层层包围，觉得不足为奇，但就在100年前，大部分人们听到的不过是家中的吟唱，教堂的唱诗和酒吧中的小提琴手。 Other appetites, too, have been sated even to excess by modern business. Food far beyond the simple needs of stomachs, and sex (or at least images of it) far beyond the needs of reproduction, bombard the modern man and woman, and are eagerly consumed. But these excesses are built on obvious appetites. What appetite drives the proliferation of music to the point where the average American teenager spends 1½-2½ hours a day―an eighth of his waking life―listening to it? 其他欲望也和音乐一样，在现代商业的作用下甚至发展到闲赘。食物远非仅仅填饱肚子，性（至少是与性有关的画面）远非仅为繁衍，它们都像炮弹一样轰炸着现代人的头脑，还十分畅销。不过这些过度消费建立于显而易见的欲望之上。是什么样的需求推动着音乐的繁荣，让美国青少年每天平均花1½-2½小时――即清醒时间的八分之一――洗耳恭听呢？ Well, that fact―that he, or she, is a teenager―supports one hypothesis about the function of music. Around 40% of the lyrics of popular songs speak of romance, sexual relationships and sexual behaviour. The Shakespearean theory, that music is at least one of the foods of love, has a strong claim to be true. The more mellifluous the singer, the more dexterous the harpist, the more mates he attracts. 受众是青少年这一事实，对音乐功能假说之一提供了支撑。约40%流行歌曲的作词都在讲述爱情，两性关系和性行为。莎翁曰，音乐至少为爱情食粮之一，很大程度上是正确的。歌手声音愈甜美，竖琴师弹奏越流畅，吸引的异性就越多。 A second idea that is widely touted is that music binds groups of people together. The resulting solidarity, its supporters suggest, might have helped bands of early humans to thrive at the expense of those that were less musical. 第二种广泛受到支持的说法是，音乐将人们联系到了一起。该理论的支持者认为，由此产生的团结可能帮助早期人群变得更加繁荣，音乐细胞不发达的群体则遭到淘汰。 Both of these ideas argue that musical ability evolved specifically―that it is, if you like, a virtual organ as precisely crafted to its purpose as the heart or the spleen. The third hypothesis, however, is that music is a cross between an accident and an invention. It is an accident because it is the consequence of abilities that evolved for other purposes. And it is an invention because, having thus come into existence, people have bent it to their will and made something they like from it. 这两种观点都认为，音乐能力是特别发展起来的――也可以说是一个假想中完全为某种功能而产生的器官，类似心脏或脾脏。第三种假设却认为，音乐是偶然和创造的交集。说它是偶然，因为音乐是本为他用的能力产生的结果。说是创造，因为音乐自产生以来，人们就将它按照自己的意愿塑造，并从中得到所爱。 She loves you 她爱你 Shakespeare's famous quote was, of course, based on commonplace observation. Singing, done well, is certainly sexy. But is its sexiness the reason it exists? Charles Darwin thought so. Twelve years after he published "On the Origin of Species", which described the idea of natural selection, a second book hit the presses. "The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex" suggested that the need to find a mate being the pressing requirement that it is, a lot of the features of any given animal have come about not to aid its survival, but to aid its courtship. The most famous example is the tail of the peacock. But Darwin suggested human features, too, might be sexually selected in this way―and one of those he lit on was music. 莎翁名言当然基于日常观察。歌唱得好，固然性感。但性感是音乐存在的原因吗？查尔斯•达尔文认为如此。出版描述自然选择思想的《物种起源》十二载后，他的第二部书也付梓印刷。《人类的由来及性选择》称，寻求配偶的需求十分迫切，因此任意物种许多特征的存在并非为生存，而是为求偶。最著名的案例就是孔雀尾。但达尔文同时表示，人类特征可能也是由此方式进行的性选择――他阐述的其中一点就是音乐。 In this case, unlike that of natural selection, Darwin's thinking did not set the world alight. But his ideas were revived recently by Geoffrey Miller, an evolutionary biologist who works at the University of New Mexico. Dr Miller starts with the observations that music is a human universal, that it is costly in terms of time and energy to produce, and that it is, at least in some sense, under genetic control. About 4% of the population has "amusia" of one sort or another, and at least some types of amusia are known to be heritable. Universality, costliness and genetic control all suggest that music has a clear function in survival or reproduction, and Dr Miller plumps for reproduction. 这一次，达尔文的观点并没有像自然选择学说一样，轰动世界。但他的观点最近被新墨西哥大学进化生物学家杰弗里•米勒恢复了生机。首先，米勒博士观察到：音乐在人类中普遍存在，生产过程消耗时间和精力，并且最起码在某些意义上受基因控制。约4%人口患有各种程度的"失歌症"，并且我们已经知道至少某些失歌症具有遗传性。普遍性、消耗性和基因控制，这些都显示音乐在生存和繁衍方面具有明显作用，米勒博士认为这是出于繁衍之故。 One reason for believing this is that musical productivity―at least among the recording artists who have exploited the phonograph and its successors over the past hundred years or so―seems to match the course of an individual's reproductive life. In particular, Dr Miller studied jazz musicians. He found that their output rises rapidly after puberty, reaches its peak during young-adulthood, and then declines with age and the demands of parenthood. 该观点理由之一：音乐产量――至少在近百年来在利用留声机或留声机的升级产品留下录音的艺术家之中――似乎符合个人的生育期过程。米勒博士研究了爵士音乐家，发现他们的产量在青春期后迅速上升，青年时代达到顶峰，而后随年龄增长和照顾孩子的需要逐年下降。 As is often the case with this sort of observation, it sounds unremarkable; obvious, even. But uniquely human activities associated with survival―cooking, say―do not show this pattern. People continue to cook at about the same rate from the moment that they have mastered the art until the moment they die or are too decrepit to continue. Moreover, the anecdotal evidence linking music to sexual success is strong. Dr Miller often cites the example of Jimi Hendrix, who had sex with hundreds of groupies during his brief life and, though he was legally unmarried, maintained two long-term liaisons. The words of Robert Plant, the lead singer of Led Zeppelin, are also pertinent: "I was always on my way to love. Always. Whatever road I took, the car was heading for one of the greatest sexual encounters I've ever had." 在此种类型的观察中，这样的结论并不足为怪；甚至可以说显然。但人类特有的与生存相关的活动――如做饭――并未显示出这样的规律。人类从掌握做饭技巧的那一刻起，到死去或身体过于虚弱无法继续，做饭的频率都大致相同。而且，关于音乐和性成功的传闻也有很强的证据意义。米勒博士经常援引吉米•亨德里克斯的例子，他不长的一生中，和几百位歌迷发生过性关系，虽然从法律意义上讲他没有结婚，却保持了两段长期的感情。英国摇滚乐队雷德•泽培林主唱罗伯特•普兰特的唱词也非常贴切："我总是在爱情的路上。总是在爱情的路上。不管我选择何种道路，车子总将开往我所经历的最美好的性爱。" Another reason to believe the food-of-love hypothesis is that music fulfils the main criterion of a sexually selected feature: it is an honest signal of underlying fitness. Just as unfit peacocks cannot grow splendid tails, so unfit people cannot sing well, dance well (for singing and dancing go together, as it were, like a horse and carriage) or play music well. All of these activities require physical fitness and dexterity. Composing music requires creativity and mental agility. Put all of these things together and you have a desirable mate. "爱情食粮"假说的另一个根据，是音乐满足性选择特点的主要标准：它是基本生存适合度的可靠信号。就好比不适合生存的孔雀不能长出美丽的雀尾，不适合生存的人类也不能唱出美妙的歌曲，跳起迷人的舞蹈（唱歌跳舞就好比马和马车一样紧密结合），抑或流畅演奏。这些活动都需要生理上的适宜和灵巧。作曲需要创造力和思维的敏捷。将这些联系起来，就是您理想中的配偶。 Improve your singing… 提高演唱能力 A third reason to believe it is that music, or something very like it, has evolved in other species, and seems to be sexually selected in those species, too. Just as the parallel evolution of mouse-like forms in marsupial and placental mammals speaks of similar ways of life, so the parallel evolution of song in birds, whales and gibbons, as well as humans, speaks of a similar underlying function. And females of these animals can be fussy listeners. It is known from several species of birds, for example, that females prefer more complex songs from their suitors, putting males under pressure to evolve the neurological apparatus to create and sing them. 第三点理由，音乐――或同音乐十分相似的事物――在其他物种中也有进化，并且在这些物种中似乎也是通过性选择。有袋和胎盘哺乳动物中与鼠类平行进化，表明它们的生活方式相似，因此鸟类、鲸类、猿类，以及人类间歌曲的平行进化，也说明了歌曲基本功能相同。上述动物的雌性都是非常挑剔的听众。从一些鸟类中我们得知，雌性喜欢听它们的追求者唱更为复杂的歌曲，雄性在这样的压力下就发展神经系统，进行创作和演唱。 And yet, and yet. Though Dr Miller's arguments are convincing, they do not feel like the whole story. A man does not have to be gay to enjoy the music of an all-male orchestra, even if he particularly appreciates the soprano who comes on to sing the solos. A woman, meanwhile, can enjoy the soprano even while appreciating the orchestra on more than one level. Something else besides sex seems to be going on. 不过呢，不过呢。纵使米勒博士的论据非常有说服性，却不能解释全部问题。不是男同性恋，也可以欣赏全男管弦乐队的音乐，即便他尤其欣赏的是上台独唱的女高音。女性也可以喜欢女高音，同时在不同程度上欣赏管弦乐队。除了性，似乎还有其他因素。 The second hypothesis for music's emergence is that it had a role not just in helping humans assess their mates, but also in binding bands of people together in the evolutionary past. Certainly, it sometimes plays that role today. It may be unfashionable in Britain to stand for the national anthem, but two minutes watching the Last Night of the Proms, an annual music festival, on television will serve to dispel any doubts about the ability of certain sorts of music to instil collective purpose in a group of individuals. In this case the cost in time and energy is assumed to be repaid in some way by the advantages of being part of a successful group. 音乐起源的第二种假说认为，音乐不仅帮助人类评价配偶，而且在人类进化过程中将大家联系在一起。当然，音乐今天也会体现这样的作用。在英国，听到国歌起立可能不那么入流，但看两分钟英国年度盛典"最后的舞会"电视节目，就不会怀疑，一些种类音乐能在一群个体中灌输集体精神。在这种情况下，我们认为，作为某成功团体一部分而产生的优越感，对时间和精力上的消耗以某种方式做出偿还。 The problem with this hypothesis is that it relies on people not cheating and taking the benefits without paying the costs. One way out of that dilemma is to invoke a phenomenon known to biologists as group selection. Biologically, this is a radical idea. It requires the benefits of solidarity to be so great that groups lacking them are often extinguished en bloc. Though theoretically possible, this is likely to be rare in practice. However, some researchers have suggested that the invention of weapons such as spears and bows and arrows made intertribal warfare among early humans so lethal that group selection did take over. It has been invoked, for example, to explain the contradictory manifestations of morality displayed in battle: tenderness towards one's own side; ruthlessness towards the enemy. In this context the martial appeal of some sorts of music might make sense. 这种假说的问题在于，它需要人们在不支付成本的条件下不作弊，不享受好处。解决方法之一就是构造生物学家所谓的群体选择现象。生物学上来说，这样的观念可谓激进。团结的优势需要非常强大，而没有团结精神的群体通常会整体消失。尽管理论上存在这样的可能性，实际却十分罕见。然而，已有科学家认为，诸如长矛、弓箭等武器的发明，使人类早期部落间战争具有很强的致命性，而确实产生过群体选择。这种观点已用来解释战争中道德上的矛盾：对自己人温和，对敌人无情。这样分析，某些音乐的武力感召可能不无道理。  Robin Dunbar of Oxford University does not go quite that far, but unlike Dr Miller he thinks that the origins of music need to be sought in social benefits of group living rather than the sexual benefits of seduction. He does not deny that music has gone on to be sexually selected (indeed, one of his students, Konstantinos Kaskatis, has shown that Dr Miller's observation about jazz musicians also applies to 19thcentury classical composers and contemporary pop singers). But he does not think it started that way. 牛津大学教授罗宾•邓巴还未深入到这般，但与米勒博士不同，他认为音乐的起源需要从群体生活的社会利益中探寻，而非吸引异性方面的两性利益。他并没否认音乐在性选择中发展（实际上他的一名学生康斯坦丁诺•卡斯卡迪斯已证明，米勒博士对于爵士音乐家的观察结果同样适用于19世纪的古典乐作曲家和当代的流行乐手）。但他并不认为音乐始于斯。 …and your grooming 注意仪容仪表 Much of Dr Dunbar's career has been devoted to trying to explain the development of sociality in primates. He believes that one of the things that binds groups of monkeys and apes together is grooming. On the face of it, grooming another animal is functional. It keeps the pelt clean and removes parasites. But it is an investment in someone else's well-being, not your own. Moreover, animals often seem to groom each other for far longer than is strictly necessary to keep their fur pristine. That time could, in principle, be used for something else. Social grooming, rather like sexual selection, is therefore a costly (and thus honest) signal. In this case though, that signal is of commitment to the group rather than reproductive prowess. 邓巴教授的职业生涯中，大部分时间都在努力对灵长类动物的交际发展做出解释。他认为，将猴群和猿群结合在一起的方式之一就是它们整理毛发的行为。表面看来，为其他动物整理毛发是有实际功用的：可以保持皮毛洁净，去除寄生虫。但这是对其他个体健康的投入，而非自身。何况动物为对方整理毛发的时间，比严格意义上保持皮毛洁净所需要长许多。这时间原则上说，可以用来做其他的事情。群体中毛发整理行为和性选择十分相似，是一种需要投入（因此可靠）的信号。然而在这一案例中，信号是对群体的忠诚，而无关生殖能力。 Dr Dunbar thinks language evolved to fill the role of grooming as human tribes grew too large for everyone to be able to groom everyone else. This is a controversial hypothesis, but it is certainly plausible. The evidence suggests, however, that the need for such "remote grooming" would arise when a group exceeds about 80 individuals, whereas human language really got going when group sizes had risen to around 140. His latest idea is that the gap was bridged by music, which may thus be seen as a precursor to language. 邓巴博士认为，随着人类群体愈发壮大，个体不能为其他所有个体梳理毛发，语言就发展起来填补空缺。这种假设很具争议，但的确有可能。证据显示，如若群体中个体数目超过80，就会产生"远程梳理"的需要，而人类语言是在个体数量发展到140时诞生。他最近提出，其间的沟壑由音乐填补――而音乐也可以看视为语言的先驱。 The costliness of music―and of the dancing associated with it―is not in doubt, so the idea has some merit. Moreover, the idea that language evolved from wordless singing is an old one. And, crucially, both singing and dancing tend to be group activities. That does not preclude their being sexual. Indeed, showing off to the opposite sex in groups is a strategy used by many animals (it is known as lekking). But it may also have the function of using up real physiological resources in a demonstration of group solidarity. 音乐――及其相联系的舞蹈――的消耗性质毋庸置疑，因此这样的观点不无道理。此外，语言发迹于无词歌唱，这样的理论早有提出。重要的一点是，歌唱和舞蹈是都群体活动。这并不能否认它们与性相关。实际上，向群体中异性炫耀是许多动物使用的策略（也就是所谓的求偶集会），但可能也用作通过消耗真正的生理资源，以显示群体团结。 By side-stepping the genocidal explanations that underlie the classical theory of group selection, Dr Dunbar thinks he has come up with an explanation that accounts for music's socially binding qualities without stretching the limits of evolutionary theory. Whether it will pass the mathematical scrutiny which showed that classical group selection needs genocide remains to be seen. But if music is functional, it may be that sexual selection and social selection have actually given each other a helping hand. 避开群体选择基础的经典理论――群族灭绝，邓巴教授认为自己发现了可以在进化理论内，对音乐的社会联系特点进行解释。这种说法是不是经得住数学的考验（数学研究显示经典群体选择需要群族灭绝），仍有待观察。但若音乐果真是一种工具，可能是性选择和社会选择相互作用的结果。 The third hypothesis, though, is that music is not functional, and also that Dr Dunbar has got things backwards. Music did not lead to language, language led to music in what has turned out to be a glorious accident―what Stephen Jay Gould called a spandrel, by analogy with the functionless spaces between the arches of cathedrals that artists then fill with paintings. This is what Steven Pinker, a language theorist at Harvard, thinks. He once described music as auditory cheesecake and suggested that if it vanished from the species little else would change. 第三种假设却认为，音乐并非功用性，邓巴教授对此也作出解释。音乐并非语言先驱，语言发展出音乐不过是个美丽的意外――斯蒂芬•杰伊•古尔德所谓的"拱肩"，他将其比作教堂拱门的留白，被艺术家挂上画作。哈佛大学语言理论学家史蒂芬•平克亦认为如此。他曾经将音乐比作一个听觉芝士蛋糕，称如果蛋糕从同种之间消失，没什么会发生改变。 Dr Pinker's point is that, like real cheesecake, music sates an appetite that nature cannot. Human appetites for food evolved at a time when the sugar and fat which are the main ingredients of cheesecake were scarce. In the past, no one would ever have found enough of either of these energy-rich foods to become obese, so a strong desire to eat them evolved, together with little limit beyond a full stomach to stop people eating too much. So it is with music. A brain devoted to turning sound into meaning is tickled by an oversupply of tone, melody and rhythm. Singing is auditory masturbation to satisfy this craving. Playing musical instruments is auditory pornography. Both sate an appetite that is there beyond its strict biological need. 平克博士认为，音乐就好像真正的芝士蛋糕一样，满足了一种自然界无法满足的欲望。人们对食物的欲望在糖和脂肪匮乏的时代得以发展，而糖和脂肪正是芝士蛋糕的主要原料。过去，这两种高能量的食物稀少，没有人能因它们肥胖，所以食用的强烈欲望得以发展，而若非吃饱，也没有什么力量能阻止人们食用过量。音乐也是如此。如大脑全力将声音转化为意义，那么过量供给音调、旋律和节奏会让其感到愉悦。歌唱就是听觉自慰，用作满足这种渴望。演奏乐器就是听觉毛片。两者都满足严格意义上生理需求之外的欲望。 Of course, it is a little more complicated than that. People do not have to be taught to like cheesecake or sexy pictures (which, in a telling use of the language, are sometimes also referred to as "cheesecake"). They do, however, have to be taught music in a way that they do not have to be taught language. 当然不是这么简单。人们不需教育就喜欢芝士蛋糕或香艳图片（在英语中香艳图片有时也会被称为"芝士蛋糕"）。音乐则与语言不同：语言无需刻意教授，而音乐需要专门学习。 Words and music 文字与音乐 Aniruddh Patel, of the Neurosciences Institute in San Diego, compares music to writing, another widespread cultural phenomenon connected with language. True language―the spoken languages used by most people and the gestural languages used by the deaf―does not have to be taught in special classes. The whole of a baby's world is its classroom. It is true that parents make a special effort to talk to their children, but this is as instinctive as a young child's ability (lost in his early teens) to absorb the stuff and work out its rules without ever being told them explicitly. 圣地亚哥神经科学院教授阿尼鲁德•帕特尔将音乐与写作――另外一种和语言相关的文化现象――进行比对。真正的语言――大部分人使用的口语和聋哑人使用的手语――无需在特别的课堂中教授。婴儿的全部世界就是他的教室。没错，父母会努力教孩子说话，但是婴儿出于本能，就能在没有明确教导的情况下，吸收知识，总结规则（该能力在青少年时期消失）。 Learning to write, by contrast, is a long-winded struggle that many fail to master even if given the opportunity. Dyslexia, in other words, is common. Moreover, reading and writing must actively be taught, usually by specialists, and evidence for a youthful critical period when this is easier than otherwise is lacking. Both, however, transform an individual's perception of the world, and for this reason Dr Patel refers to them as "transformative technologies". 相反，写作学习就是长期的挣扎，很多人即便有此机会，也未必掌握技巧。换句话说，阅读障碍非常常见。更甚者，读写需要积极教导，通常需要专家，而且没有明确证据表明，年轻时有一段特别时期教授读写相对容易。读写都改变个人的世界观，因此帕特尔博士称之为"变革性技术"。 In difficulty of learning, music lies somewhere in between speaking and writing. Most people have some musical ability, but it varies far more than their ability to speak. Dr Patel sees this as evidence to support his idea that music is not an adaptation in the way that language is, but is, instead, a transformative technology. However, that observation also supports the idea that sexual selection is involved, since the whole point is that not everyone will be equally able to perform, or even to learn how to do so. 从学习难度上看，音乐在说话和写作的中间地带。大部分人都有些音乐能力，但这种能力比说话能力的不确定性要大得多。帕特尔博士认为这证明了自己的观点：音乐并非同语言一样，是一种适应能力，而是一种变革性技术。然而，这同样证明，性选择也在其中扮演了角色，因为音乐并非所有人都有相同的表演能力，甚至学习能力。 Do they know it's Christmas? 他们知道是圣诞节吗？ What all of these hypotheses have in common is the ability of music to manipulate the emotions, and this is the most mysterious part of all. That some sounds lead to sadness and others to joy is the nub of all three hypotheses. The singing lover is not merely demonstrating his prowess; he also seeks to change his beloved's emotions. Partly, that is done by the song's words, but pure melody can also tug at the heartstrings. The chords of martial music stir different sentiments. A recital of the Monteverdi Vespers or a Vivaldi concerto in St Mark's cathedral in Venice, the building that inspired Gould to think of the non-role of spandrels, generates emotion pure and simple, disconnected from human striving. 这些假说的共通之处在于，都承认音乐驾驭情绪的能力，这最让人不解。某些声音会让人难过，有些会给人带来愉悦，在三个假说中都是要点。爱人歌唱，并非仅仅是表现自己的能力，同时也在试图改变所爱之人的情绪。这一部分是歌词的功效，但纯旋律也可以触动心弦。军乐可以激发不同的情感。在威尼斯圣马可大教堂中吟唱蒙特威尔第的晚祷，抑或维瓦尔第的协奏曲都能引发纯净而简单的情感，无关人类繁衍。而正是在圣马可大教堂，古尔德产生了拱肩无用的灵感。 This is an area that is only beginning to be investigated. Among the pioneers are Patrik Juslin, of Uppsala University, and Daniel Vastfjall, of Gothenburg University, both in Sweden. They believe they have identified six ways that music affects emotion, from triggering reflexes in the brain stem to triggering visual images in the cerebral cortex. 这个领域的研究刚刚开始。先驱者包括乌普萨拉大学的帕特里克•尤斯林和哥德堡大学的丹尼尔•法斯特加尔，两人都在瑞士。他们认为已经找到了音乐影响情感的六种方式，从初级的在脑干中引发反射，到高级的在大脑皮层中触发视觉图像。 Such a multiplicity of effects suggests music may be an emergent property of the brain, cobbled together from bits of pre-existing machinery and then, as it were, fine-tuned. So, ironically, everyone may be right―or, at least partly right. Dr Pinker may be right that music was originally an accident and Dr Patel may be right that it transforms people's perceptions of the world without necessarily being a proper biological phenomenon. But Dr Miller and Dr Dunbar may be right that even if it originally was an accident, it has subsequently been exploited by evolution and made functional. 影响的多元性显示，音乐可能是大脑的应变特性，是由预先存在的机制拼凑起来，而后经过调整。因此讽刺的是，可能大家都没错――至少部分正确。平克博士认为音乐最初是一种偶然或许没错，帕特尔博士认为音乐改变人们对世界的感知，却并不严格属于生理现象，也可能正确。但米勒和邓巴博士说，即便音乐最初是偶然，随后经过演变得以利用，并成为工具，也不无道理。 Part of that accident may be the fact that many natural sounds evoke emotion for perfectly good reasons (fear at the howl of a wolf, pleasure at the sound of gently running water, irritation and mother-love at the crying of a child). Sexually selected features commonly rely on such pre-existing perceptual biases. It is probably no coincidence, for instance, that peacocks' tails have eyespots; animal brains are good at recognising eyes because eyes are found only on other animals. It is pure speculation, but music may be built on emotions originally evolved to respond to important natural sounds, but which have blossomed a hundred-fold. 意外的发生，可能部分是因为许多大自然中的声音有充足理由激发情感（听到狼嚎的恐惧，听到温和流水声的愉悦，还有听到婴儿啼哭的愤怒和母性爱怜）。性选择的特征一般都基于这些预先存在的感知差别。孔雀尾巴上的眼状斑点，可能并非偶然：动物大脑善于识别眼睛，因为眼睛只有在其他动物身上才可见到。这仅仅是猜测，但很可能，音乐的情感基础起先是为对重要的自然声音做出回应，却得以长足发展。 The truth, of course, is that nobody yet knows why people respond to music. But, when the carol singers come calling, whether the emotion they induce is joy or pain, you may rest assured that science is trying to work out why. 当然事实上，目前无人知晓为什么人们会对音乐做出反应。颂歌歌手开始演唱时，不管他们是带着愉悦还是悲伤，您都大可放心，科学会努力给出一个答案。 from PRINT EDITION | Christmas Specials |
2011年1月31日
Why music?
Buying China Stocks Often Has 'Worse Odds Than Gambling'
Buying China Stocks Often Has 'Worse Odds Than Gambling'
By: Shaun Rein, CNBC Contributor
Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group
Founder & Managing Director, China Market Research Group
"As the Chinese get richer," the private equity investor glowed, "this company is going to be the next Google."
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I was sitting in my office in Shanghai, while the investor rattled off about why he loved the company. It had 50 retail outlets and planned to open another 100. Moreover, its website had 10 million monthly hits.
The executive was ready to invest $50 million but at the last minute one of his partners wanted some due diligence first. This was why he was Skyping me from the U.S.. He had only been to China once, when the CEO of the target firm had wined and dined him, introduced him to some supposedly high-ranking government officials, and showed him a packed outlet.
Four weeks later, after traveling around the country, my team had only found a grand total of two of the target firm's outlets. At one, there were a couple of security guards sleeping at the front desk and not much else. At the other, an elderly lady sat idly, drinking tea out of a jar. The other 48 outlets? We couldn't find them. Calls to phone numbers went unanswered.
And those web hits? Not a single consumer we surveyed had ever heard of the store. Not one. Most surprisingly, while we were in the process of due diligence, the site switched from a social media site to a dating site to a portal for soccer fans.
It was obvious that the CEO of the target company was trying to mislead the private equity firm. He had gamed the system to make it look to Amazon.com's [AMZN Loading... () 
] web traffic subsidiary, Alexa, touted that his portal got a lot of web traffic and spruced up an outlet to make it look packed.
Luckily for my client, he did his homework before committing the $50 million. But not everyone is this lucky. Despite the many horror stories investors run into in China, it still amazes me how little due diligence is actually done by people investing there.
If it can almost happen to professional private equity firms, it can happen to you. Even though I have been, and continue to be, one of the biggest China bulls for over a decade and a half, I recommend a healthy dose of caution for most everyday investors before buying Chinese stocks. In fact, they might be better off investing in companies like Apple [AAPL Loading... () ] or Yum! Brands [YUM Loading... () ] that make money in China but whose numbers you can trust.
Unfortunately, fraud is commonplace there and the investment banks, law firms, and accounting firms that should be protecting you and doing due diligence aren't doing their jobs. Why not? Often they just want to get deals done to get their commissions and, frankly, often they are simply not up to the job. I've seen many non-Chinese speaking executives fly into China for for a few days to conduct due diligence and get hoodwinked.
What are some things to keep in mind before investing there?
First, be very careful of investing in any small-cap Chinese firms that go public in America by doing reverse mergers through which they buy shell companies in the U.S. and inject assets there. I would almost categorically stay away from those firms if you are an individual investor.
Why? Most good Chinese firms do not need to do reverse mergers to raise money. There is plenty of domestic and foreign private equity money in China. It is quite easy for well-run companies to raise money which begs the questions: why do these companies need to do a reverse merger to raise money? How good can a company be if no other Chinese or foreign investors want to put money in?
Second, many companies go public in the U.S. because they are not profitable and thus are not allowed to go public in China. Companies must be profitable for three full years there before they are allowed to go public on the Shanghai A-share market. Therefore, many Chinese firms going public in the U.S. are doing so simply because they aren't qualified to go public in China.
Think of recent companies like Youku [YOKU Loading... () ] , a Chinese Youtube-like site, and Dangdang [DANG Loading... () ] , an online retailer, that both have billion-dollar market caps. Youku lost about $30 million last year and is forecast to lose more in 2011. Dandang only eked out $2.4 million in profit after eleven years of operations. 80 percent of its revenue comes from selling books that cost less than $3.
Of course, not all reverse mergers or Chinese firms listed in America are bad. Many, like Baidu [BIDU Loading... () ] or Ctrip [CTRP Loading... () ] , are very well-run but everyday investors should still be careful. Valuations and volatility are high because hedge funds control large portions of the companies.
Investing in Chinese firms often has even worse odds than gambling. At least in gambling you know the odds - with many Chinese investments you not only have to deal with business and regulatory risk, but outright fraud.
You'd be better off taking your money to Macau or Las Vegas for a weekend at the tables.
China is the greatest growth story of the next decade, and a lot of money will be made there. However, only the cautious investor who does proper due diligence will make fortunes.
Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group (www.cmrconsulting.com.cn) a strategic market intelligence firm, and is based in Hong Kong. Follow him on Twitter at @shaunrein. He does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned.
2011年1月29日
2011年巴伦圆桌会议
- 2011年巴伦圆桌会议 注意了，个股投资者
- 2011-1-29 文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
- 美国私人住宅将持续去杠杆化，但公共房产领域将杠杆化，并将成为经济的支点之一。中国上调利率会引致美国市场的抛售。
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【《证券市场周刊》记者 徐怡丹】巴伦圆桌会议的成员们近日在纽约的哈佛俱乐部召开了年度会议并预测：美国的结构性问题包括巨大的财政赤字以及延续财政赤字的政策，在不久以后会将国家带入毁灭的漩涡――当然之前发生的事可能是股市攀升另一个5％、10％甚至20％。因为短循环周期内的结构性力量，包括复苏的工业经济和上升的公司利润，将会在未来的一年或更长时间内影响股价的走势。
《巴伦周刊》：大家对新的一年有什么看法？
维特玛：美国经济正在扶摇直上。根据ISI Group的数据表明，州所得税和营业税收入都有所增加，表明人们找到了工作、开始花钱了。公司也又一次乐意花钱了，某些行业甚至在扩大生产力。但这并不意味着股票价格低廉，实际上股票已经上浮了一大截。现在的市场似乎完全反映了其价值，而且从现在开始的短期内可能会再上浮一点。
布莱克：我看到了一个难题。一方面，由于议会通过了8,580亿美元刺激方案，经济形势会有所好转。今年GDP将会增长3.5%左右。企业利润构成GDP的比率一直很高，根据标准普尔500指数的收入衡量，今年可能还会增加另一个8.8%。我担心政府对赤字已经失去了控制。而为了保持经济增长，我们需要更多的财政刺激。累计财政赤字已经相当于GDP的95%，达到了自1946年以来的最高水平。用一个当下越来越流行的说法描述就是，我们一直在沿着时间维度把破易拉罐向前踢了又踢，把麻烦无限期地留给明天。
《巴伦周刊》：我们正在踢的东西是什么？
布莱克：社会安全、医疗保障、医疗补助――看看我们对这些公众权利又是如何处理的。我们应当把美国这座"房子"的结构整理得有条不紊才行。当今负债占GDP的比率让美国看起来像个香蕉共和国（政局不稳、依赖特定农业资源出口、被少数、富裕而腐败的政客统治的权贵政权）。但今年经济会健康一些。失业率仍然是个问题，没有工作的人们将会削弱消费。但是工业经济势头不错。无论是产能利用率、旋转钻井平台数量还是工厂船运数量，与工业相关的数字都会上升5%，10%，甚至15%。
《巴伦周刊》：你同意这个观点吗？谢夫？
谢夫：我同意我们在时间维度上把破易拉罐向前踢的说法，尽管总统奥巴马很有可能出台特定的细则来减少财政赤字。我认为摆脱困境的唯一方法是靠自身的发展破茧成蝶。白宫需要采纳建设性的方法对待赤字问题，并且需要工商业界的援助。我们刚才说到公司的表现良好。在股市方面，和2008-2009年形成鲜明对比的是，今年股市不再需要勇气和大量资本投入，今年将会是个股投资者的天下。
《巴伦周刊》：朱洛夫，你怎么认为？
朱洛夫：在我们面前的是两个世界――已完成工业化的世界和正在崛起的世界。已经完成工业化的世界继续活在自己编造的故事里：要想维持现有的生活方式只能依靠在债务的泥潭里越陷越深。在某种程度上，债券市场将为故事的延续制造麻烦。不仅对美国，对其它工业化国家也是。私人住宅领域的融资战线依然拉得很长，并且将会继续去杠杆化。公共房地产领域将会杠杆化，也会成为经济发展的一个支撑点。美国经济将会波澜不惊地发展，年内可能会增长2.5%至3%。通货膨胀在工业化世界里还不足为虑。
崛起的世界经历了大幅度经济增长，现在正进入日益严重的通货膨胀时期。这些国家如何处理通货膨胀对工业化国家有着决定性影响。如果他们下决心采取切实严格的货币政策，我们就有麻烦了。如果他们只是稍微提高利率来抑制经济过热，以往的经济循环还将被延续。这就意味着过后，也许一至两年之后，他们将不得不面对比现在高很多的通货膨胀率，那时候紧缩货币会变成不得已的措施。必须在短期大幅度经济增长而后遭受经济危机和现在就遭受更严重的熊市之间做出选择。
《巴伦周刊》：他们会如何选择？
朱洛夫：崛起的经济体会选择比较缓和的方式。他们不想现在就面对经济危机。
辛基：但是我们可以看到印度和俄罗斯的通货膨胀率达到了8%，中国达到了5%，他们还能坚持那么久吗？
朱洛夫：决定性因素在于中国，他们今年报道的通货膨胀率是5%，但实际数字很可能高出一倍。中国人非常不希望现在就陷入经济危机，国内有创造工作机会的需求。但可能出现的情况是随着中国上调两次或三次利率，美国股市会发生10%或者更多的抛售。
《巴伦周刊》：让我们听听格罗斯的意见吧。
格罗斯：发达国家正在应对过去二三十年生产、投资和消费过度的恶果。去杠杆化的过程不是一两年就能实现的。生产、投资和消费在经济结构中的比例过高以及应对它的努力都会引发一系列后果。其中之一就是经济增长放缓、通货膨胀减低。我们目睹了美国不可接受的高失业率――不是政府公布的9.4%，实际情况高达16%至17%。问题在于增加债务是不是解决债务危机的有效途径。
对葡萄牙、希腊、爱尔兰和西班牙这些无法让货币贬值的国家来说，债务危机无法被新的债务解决。目前为止，日本表现良好，相比美国他们的债务已经达到了GDP的200%到250%。美国的优势是货币储备，也就是说，美国可以通过开动印钞机来摆脱困境。但条件是债权人一方必须心甘情愿地认可美元的价值。当前的利率，包括只有0.25%的联邦基金利率都低得令人难以接受。低利率的后果之一就是实际利率已经降为负值。即使依靠印钞票来解决问题或者把破罐子继续踢下去对有些国家来说是行得通的，解决方法也绝对不是依靠纯粹制造纸张，而是创造世界其他地区切实需要的商品和服务。
《巴伦周刊》：那现在的情形是什么？
格罗斯：很不幸奥巴马政权在这一点上没有做到。政府关注的重点是消费，财政刺激会给2011年带来4%的GDP增长，但也仅限于此。这种毫无根基的甜头在2012年会迅速消失。
我们必须把重点放在就业和以制造商品和增进服务为目标的投资上。用减免税收和加速贬值的方式来激励商业行为不能实现我们的目的，因为它们无法帮助我们认清什么是商品的终极需求，以及我们自身赚取理想回报的能力。资产负债表上的现金应该被用作投资大规模的基础设施项目，比如建设高速铁路。中国就有好几百个这样的项目。美国的基础设施也需要修缮，但是截至当前，当权者似乎并不想做这方面的努力。他们更希望用税收优惠和税后利润的增长来安抚商业界。
《巴伦周刊》：不光是当权者，这种思想贯穿了整个政治领域。
朱洛夫：所有其他的发达国家毫无例外地把重点放在了减少赤字上，唯独美国还没觉得这是个问题。公共赤字在过去的10年里支撑着美国的经济。整个国家正在遭受储蓄不足和投资不足的困扰。如果政府决定用债务投资大型项目，市场将会很乐意配合，而且也会给未来创造收益并且提供工作机会。
《巴伦周刊》：可是那样赤字会更大。
朱洛夫：但债务的性质就不同了。
辛基：不再是为消费融资的债务了。
加百利：奥巴马的第一要务是如何再次当选总统。失业率对他来说非常重要，但是在一个美国出口工作机会的时代，美国人自己的竞争力又何在呢？我们的受教育程度似乎已经排到全球前二十名以外了？我们理应在研发上投入更多资金，但是未来的20年里我们应该把重点放在哪里呢？电动汽车吗？还是替代性能源？那些是中国人正在做的事。
北京正在策划软着陆，否则中国的结构性失业和经济衰退会引起政治灾难。欧洲会自我化解危机，继续向欧盟较弱的成员提供援助。美国的量化宽松计划激励了股市，但当计划终结，又会发生什么呢？奥巴马在获取商业头目和投资者信任之后向政权中心又迈进了一步。美国经济平稳，欧洲得过且过，中国将会增长7%，8%或者9%，然后就到了2012年，一切看起来不错。
我们将迎来房地产市场的复苏。因为我们去年大约建造了50万套新房，而需求量在120万上下。2011年美国的新车销量会增加100万―115万辆，全球制造量将会增长2000万辆。其中，700万辆新车将会由中国生产，500万辆在美国。在发达世界，货币宽松政策会创造强大的需求。
《巴伦周刊》：当然这一切的猜想还没有实现，或许也不会成真。
科恩：我们展开了两种讨论。一种是短期的。普遍的理解是2011年对美国经济来说是形势较好的一年，也可能是自2004-2005年以来最好的一年。GDP将会增长3.5%，也可能出现短期内猛烈的增长势头，但如何收尾也同样重要。商业领域的优势甚至在经济衰退结束之前就显现了。设备仪器比如IT方面的商业投资变得强有力。我们目睹了美国出口的活力重现。
它们同时也是经济危机之前增速最快的经济板块，平均年增长可以达到8%至10%，现在它们又回来了。我们正在全世界范畴内出售商业设备以及其他高附加值的产品和服务。
加百利：还有玉米、面粉和豆类。
科恩：同时消费者也归队了，工薪阶层看到了收入的增加。储蓄率上升到5%-6%，消费增长率也比较乐观。但同时也存在第二种讨论，是关于结构性的长远问题。美国大部分失业问题是结构性的，并且在金融危机前就出现了。而教育赤字也已经持续了10年之久。
《巴伦周刊》：但美国在科学领域获得了许多诺贝尔奖，你有没有把这个考虑在内？
科恩：我们拥有全世界顶尖的大学和研究生体系。但许多普通工人都没能参与进来。持有4年制大学学位的美国人口比率10年来成上升态势。美国人的受教育程度曾经位列全球第一。但现在许多国家超越了我们。深入一点的调查告诉我们，年轻女性获取4年制大学学位的几率在过去的10年内有所上升，但是年轻男性的几率却有所下降。从10年前开始，许多年轻男人直接进入建筑和制造业工作。当经济衰退来临，我们看到的是男女之间失业率的显著差别。
在美国，不仅大学毕业的人群性别值得注意，人们所学专业也说明了问题。获取科学、技术、工程和数学相关专业学位的学生数量在过去的10到15年间显著地下降。同时，金融危机爆发之前的10年间，中产阶级家庭的收入下降了4%。而蓝领工人阶层下降了8%。但没人能强迫别人学数学。
麦卡拉斯特：可美国取得了巨大的科学进步。看看你们用的那些电子设备。
辛基：但是科技公司雇佣不到足够的合格美国人，学校没能培养出足够的科学和工程类人才。
科恩：美国的科学、应用科学、数学和工程学博士项目全球拔尖，然而70％攻读此类学位的学生都不是美国公民。长期以来，这种形式体现了美国援助国外学子和联络国际友谊的精神，现今这些学生在印度、中国和其他地方找到了就业机会。
谢夫: 美国本土的制造业就业机会日益朝着僧多粥少的趋势发展。原因是在中国和印度制造东西比在美国本土要便宜得多。这是现实，不会改变了。
格罗斯：公司法人可能正处于掌握统治权力的巅峰。他们对劳动力的统治体现在他们有向海外出口工作和生产力的能力。他们对华盛顿的掌控体现在共和党人的选举胜利。
他们的势力甚至蔓延到了最高法院。证据就是最高法院最近取消的公司向选举阵营捐赠的限制。这对市场来说是好消息，但对商业领域的长远发展来说却不是。
朱洛夫：美国也存在严重的社会分层。20%的人口拥有93%的金融资产。这告诉我们普通人的生活结构较差。他们消费自己创造的财富，到了月底他就所剩无几了。
麦卡拉斯特：我不认为普通人的生活有那么糟糕，政府在帮助他们。而且股市也会表现良好，投资股票并不需要太多钱。
布莱克：我们应该担心的另一个问题是去年140亿美元的财政赤字仅仅净增加了50万个工作机会。财政政策没能让我们的投入得到同等的回报。同时，有1050万人的家庭资产为负。
《巴伦周刊》：马克，你一直保持沉默，你对经济形势有什么顾虑吗？
法伯：难道没人认为应该让市场自我更正吗？美国金融危机的爆发很大程度上是因为25年前开始的政府干预。政府接连不断地抛出促进消费的政策，但人人心里都明白只有推行那些有助于形成资本的政策，即投资基础设施、研发中心、教育以及建造工厂和设备制造，经济才能平稳地发展。资助棒球比赛，电视节目，或者谈话节目对塑造活跃的、欣欣向荣的经济体没有帮助。
《巴伦周刊》：但是政府并没有主观上增加棒球比赛的数量。
法伯：但政府让借钱变得容易了。通过推行低利率，政府行为造成了巨大的信用泡沫。
《巴伦周刊》：当真是美联储错了？
法伯：美联储在1913年成立，之前十九世纪的主题是强有力的人均收入增长和通货紧缩的大环境。
《巴伦周刊》：但也存在巨大的金融恐慌。
法伯：金融恐慌激励了经济体系。同时历史显示，大国濒临衰弱时往往是非常危险的，因为它们陷入了绝望的情绪里。但是今年美国经济将会趋于稳定，增长平缓。
还有，美联储珍妮特.耶伦一年前表示声明如果有可能，她将支持实际利率为负。她的表述十分重要，因为这暗示着美联储会继续让实际利率为负，正如我们见到的一样。负利率意味着剥削以及破坏货币的某些功能：储存价值和计数单位的功能。如果你用金子而不是美元来衡量股市，它从1999年开始下跌了80%。我不再认为美元是有效的计数单位。人们不应该用美元来评估他们的财富，因为总有一天每个人都是亿万富翁。
格罗斯：我在许多问题上和麦克意见一致，但也不是所有问题。我无从判断美国是否已经濒临绝望，但是用人单位、汽车行业和政策制定都散发着绝望的气息。我们的讨论还没有涉及债务拖欠，但是可以肯定的是，年复一年通货膨胀率的加速增长剥削了投资者和劳动者的实际薪酬和收入。我们面对的是一种相对于其他债务程度更低、增长潜力更大的新兴国家的强大货币终将贬值的货币。在可预见的收益曲线的末端，我们可以看到债权人将不得不承受负利率给他们带来的损失。这本质上来说是一种债务拖欠。最终，债权人将不得不任由中央银行和决策人的摆布，遭受财产上的抢夺。
法伯：和站出来宣布"我们连债务的一半也不会付给你"相比，印更多的钞票和拖欠债务对政府来说更容易办到，正如比尔提到的那样。同时，通货紧缩和通货膨胀的倡导者正在进行着一场辩论。通货紧缩者宣称，道琼斯指数将会下跌1000点，和实际经济形势形成鲜明对比，因此人们应该持有政府债券而不是商品、资产和不动产。但是如果中国和印度保持经济增长，汽车市场表现更好，那么正如马里奥提到的，商品市场走势将会乐观。
即使是在通货紧缩的大环境下，税收下降，财政政策继续扩张。赤字不断增加。政府债券利率升高，债务质量降低。在这种灾难性的环境里，我更愿意持有的也是资产而不是政府债券。站在激进的熊市立场，我认为资产和硬资产：房地产、商品、贵金属和收藏品更值得持有。
辛基：去年8月，事情开始向坏的方向发展。随后伯南克在杰克逊霍尔发表演说，宣称美联储将推行定量宽松的货币政策，随后道琼斯指数上升了1400点；汽油价格从每加仑2.65美元上升到3美元以上，这意味着消费者要为此多支付500亿美元；食品价格也飙升至新高点。导致了经济的极大不平衡。拥有金融资产的人会安然度过，否则高昂的食品价格、保险价格以及其他消费品都将给人重重一击。储蓄得不到任何收益。塔吉特(平价连锁店)的销售在圣诞期间并不理想，而萨克斯（高端商场）的销售却非常好。这是一个很大的问题。
我们接着继续开动了印钞机。宽松的货币政策在2000年导致经济发展不均。2005年前后，低至1%的利率导致了房产泡沫和次贷危机，而现在的利率则更低。为了刺激经济，美联储不得不继续印钞。虽然截至目前事情发展顺利，但是一旦到了6月，每月1100亿美元的印钞量不再持续，事情可能就没这么乐观了。一年前，人们热火朝天地讨论如何脱困，然而正确的策略并没有出现，我们并没有着手解决结构性的经济问题。如果在6月后美联储继续印钞，我们将迎来更高的汽油价格食品价格和更大的经济不平衡，直到停止大量印钞。如果我们不关掉印钞机，美元将会彻底崩溃。我们的政策看起来让经济形势变好，但长期看来却具有毁灭性的后果。
科恩：除了马克，我们所有人都将注意力放在了成熟市场上。但是对发达经济体奏效的政策也许该与发展中经济体背道而驰。中国正在收缩信贷，印度也正在讨论这个问题。政策上的分歧模糊了不同市场和货币的前景。美元相对于某些货币会上升，而相对于另一些货币则也许会下跌。
格罗斯：美国人在面对货币问题表现出令人惊讶的简单思维。欧洲人在这个问题上一直更加成熟，因为他们必须不断地应付各种国际问题。在2011年汇率将成为选择投资区域的关键考虑因素。就像艾比说的，也许对于某些人来说美元没有问题，但是货币是衡量未来收益能力的工具。巴西的实际利率是5%到6%，其他新兴市场平均为2%、3%、4%。以货币为立足点，投资者必须寻找实际收益率较高的市场。如果单纯的美国投资者希望在全球范畴内增加竞争力，他们必须考虑得更加周全。
《巴伦周刊》：到目前为止，没人提到黄金。
辛基: 过去7年中我的一半以上的资产都投资在了黄金上。机构的黄金持有率是如此之低，甚至不足1%。
1980年的黄金价格达到了每盎司850美元的高点，黄金代表了全球包含股市、债券和货币市场的资本市场3%的价值，而现在仅有0.6%。可见黄金的价格还有很大的上升空间。
辛基: 根据《投资者才华》和其他市场情绪指标，人们对股市有强烈的期许。但是黄金则不同，赫伯特黄金类投资情绪指数在下降。但是黄金股票的回暖已经处于酝酿阶段。去年，小型金矿股指数基金的成长是黄金矿业的两倍。矿业股票被低估了。
2011年1月25日
Is China's bubble close to popping?
Is China's bubble close to popping?
Enlarge 
Rocky Vega
A few hedge funds are betting that it is.
Is China's economy in a bubble that will burst soon? Some fund managers don't think that China's growth is sustainable and question whether growth numbers are even real.
Christopher Talbot Frank / Jaynes Gallery / DanitaDelimont.com / Newscom / File
Round and round China goes, and where she stops, no one knows… but, at least a few hedge funds are wagering that China's economy is in a bubble likely to pop soon. Fund managers, including Hugh Hendry at Eclectica Asset Management and Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, are shorting the China boom. First, because they're skeptical of whether real growth numbers are real ― given that they are largely produced by the state ― and second, because they don't think its growth rate is sustainable, especially given multiple examples of investment misfires like Ordos Shi and the South China Mall.
Skip to next paragraph Rocky is publisher of The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com). Previously, he was founding publisher of UrbanTurf and RFID Update, which he operated from Brazil, Chile, and Puerto Rico, and associate publisher of FierceFinance. He specialized in direct marketing at MBI, facilitated MIT Sloan School of Management programs, and has been featured on CBS.
Recent posts
For more details we turn to the Telegraph:
"…Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors, the American hedge fund manager who made millions of dollars predicting both the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, who started a fund based on the belief that rather than being the 'key engine for global growth', China is an 'enormous tail-risk'. There have been academics and analysts who have argued about the dangers of China's economy overheating for some time. But for many, the fact that hedge funds, particularly those with track records on previous crises, are launching specific funds is the sign that the bubble is close to bursting.
"One academic said: 'Economists have contrarian views all the time. But these hedge funds have their shirts on the line and do their analysis carefully. The flurry of "distress China" funds is a sign to sit up.' [...] The financiers are warning that rather than depending on China as the prop of the recovery plan, Britain needs to be braced for another shock.
"A recent study by Fitch concluded that if China's growth falls to 5pc this year rather than the expected 10pc, global commodity prices would plunge by as much as 20pc. China is the global price-setter for oil, coal and base metals. According to Corriente Advisors: 'We expect the economic fallout from a slowdown of China's unsustainable levels of credit and growth to be as extraordinary as China's economic outperformance over the past decade.'"
The case against China goes beyond development projects and infrastructure, to also include excess capacity in sectors ranging from residential real estate to bank credit to steel. The drama is bound to unfold as it will, but, with their shirts on the line, an increasing number of fund managers are betting big that the China story will eventually surprise to the downside. You can read more details in the Telegraph's coverage of how hedge funds are betting that China is a bubble that's close to bursting.
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2011年1月24日
Unloading the loaded
A special report on global leaders 全球领袖特别报道 Unloading the loaded（注1） 大宰有钱人 Catering to the whims of the rich is big business 迎合有钱人的突发奇想，是桩大买卖 Jan 20th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION  Only the little people wear seatbelts 只有小人物才系安全带 THE seven-star Burj-al-Arab hotel in Dubai is not for those who like their elegance understated. The presidential suite is an explosion of gold, purple, marble and opulence. Some guests prefer it to the even more expensive royal suite (which is $18,000 a night), says a helpful member of staff, because the decor in the royal suite is even livelier. 迪拜七星级的帆船酒店，不是为喜欢低调的人准备的。它的总统套房金光灿灿、紫色斑斓、大理石装潢、富丽堂皇，视觉冲击力十足。一位乐于助人的员工称，某些客人更喜欢价格高达1.8万美元一晚的皇家套房，因为装修风格还要热烈明快。 When you are seriously rich it is hard to spend all your money, but some creative people will help you try. Quintessentially, a firm founded by Ben Elliot, a nephew of the Duchess of Cornwall（注2）, specialises in giving the rich whatever they want, wherever they are. Some requests—tea with Britain’s queen, for example—can be a bit difficult, says Mr Elliot. But if a client needs a life-size edible cake costume for a birthday bash, or wants to fly along the Great Wall of China, his global network of fixers will fix it. 要是你非一般有钱，那么花光所有钱并非易事，但某些富于创造力的人会帮你一试。举个典型例子，康沃尔公爵夫人的外甥Ben Elliot创建了一家公司，专为有钱人提供服务，无论要啥，无论在哪。Elliot先生说，某些要求——比方与英国女王一起喝茶——可能有点难度。但若客人想要一个真人大小、服装模样、还可食用的生日聚会用蛋糕，或想要沿中国长城飞上一圈，他遍布全球的协调人网络，就会搞定。 The financial crisis hurt sales of luxury goods, which fell by 8% in 2009. But Bain, a consultancy, estimates that in 2010 they grew by 10% worldwide, and by an astounding 30% in China, where the boom barely faltered. In the West the rich have cut back on ostentatious baubles and instead gone for experiences, such as yoga retreats in India or personal coaches to teach them about Buddhism, says Milton Pedraza of the Luxury Institute, a consultancy. China’s new millionaires have no such qualms. One retailer there started selling Smart cars covered in Swarovski crystals last year. 2009年，受金融危机所累，奢侈品销售下跌8%。但咨询公司Bain估计，2010年全球奢侈品销售则上涨10%，中国更是达到惊人的30%，其涨势仅趔趄了一下。咨询公司Luxury Institute的Milton Pedraza说，在西方，富人减少了奢华饰品开支，转而追求个人体验，例如到印度练瑜伽度假，或雇私人教练教授自己佛教知识。中国新一代百万富翁，却没有这种困惑。当地一家零售商，去年开始卖裹满施华洛世奇水晶的智能轿车。 What the rich lack is time, says a former personal assistant to celebrities. They may decide to go for a weekend in Thailand on the spur of the moment, and the personal assistant has to make it happen. Another popular time-saver is a medical concierge service. PinnacleCare, for example, will send a doctor “to your home, your office [or] your ski chalet”, says Bruce Spector, the founder. 一位曾为名人服务的私人秘书称，有钱人只缺时间。他们可能一时冲动，决定去泰国度周末，这位私人秘书就只好让美梦成真。而医疗礼宾服务，则是另一个受欢迎的省时办法。比如，PinnacleCare公司创始人Bruce Spector称，他们会送一位医生“到你的家、办公室甚或滑雪小屋”。 Rich people also want help with handling their money. Creating a fortune is often fun, but conserving it can be tedious, says Charles Lowenhaupt, an adviser to the wealthy. A family may have 100 members scattered over multiple jurisdictions and 150 trusts, making tax planning a trifle complex. 有钱人也需要人帮他们管钱。理财顾问Charles Lowenhaupt称，创造财富通常很爽，但省钱就乏味了。一个家族，成员可能达百人，分散在多个辖区，委托150个信托机构管钱，这让纳税计划有些复杂。 Yet the basic problems are the same everywhere. Mr Lowenhaupt recalls an acquaintance from China teaching him a Chinese saying, “rice paddy to rice paddy in three generations”. The acquaintance was surprised to learn that other cultures have similar proverbs. 然而，根本问题寰宇皆同。Lowenhaupt先生想起一位中国老相识教了他一句中国谚语：“富不过三代”。这人听说其他文化也有类似格言，很是惊讶。 注1：Unloading the loaded Unload有“卸货、卸船、摆脱负担、倾销”等意，而loaded既指“负载、负担”之意，在美国俚语中又指“阔绰的、富有的”，即the loaded = the rich。 考虑到Catering to the whims of the rich is big business.等句，表示现在许多公司专注向有钱人提供服务，比如文中提到的生日蛋糕，沿长城飞行，医疗礼宾服务等，满足他们的突发奇想，也就是向有钱人“倾销”商品；又从插图配文Only the little people wear seatbelts等句，表示这些公司正试图让有钱人“摆脱束缚”，解决时间不够、省钱太闷等麻烦，尽情花钱。 综上所述，标题一语双关，机巧有趣。故译为“挣脱束缚，尽情花吧” 注2：the Duchess of Cornwall 康沃尔公爵夫人，即查尔斯王子的夫人卡米拉 |
2011年1月23日
印度人和中国人怎么看待国内大亨
Asia's new aristocrats
亚洲新贵
What Indians and Chinese make of their tycoons
印度人和中国人怎么看待国内大亨
Jan 20th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION
2011年1月20日 经济学人
Costly cars for comrades
给同志们的高价车
A TINY tropical fish sits in a glass vase on each table in a restaurant in the lobby of the Oberoi Hotel. A bright red piano fills the air with music. The passion fruit soufflé with bitter chocolate pavé and goats' milk ice cream is delicious. The bill would ruin most Indians.
欧贝罗伊酒店餐厅大厅里每张餐桌上都放着一个玻璃花瓶，瓶里有小小的一尾热带鱼。亮红的钢琴，琴声在空气中飘扬。西番莲甜点，牛奶冰淇淋外面有层微带苦涩的纯巧克力，美味！不过价格不菲，大多数印度人来吃一餐可得吃穷了。
One day gunmen walked into the restaurant and shot diners and staff at close range, spattering blood over the walls. At least 175 people died in the attacks that began on November 26th 2008 in Mumbai. The terrorists appear to have chosen their targets precisely. A crowded station, to maximise the death toll. A small Jewish centre. And the poshest hotels in Mumbai―the Taj and the Oberoi―which were packed with the city's elite.
有一天，一群歹徒走进了餐馆，近距离扫射客人与工作人员，鲜血溅在墙上。2008年11月26日发生在孟买的恐怖袭击，死亡人数至少有175人。恐怖主义者把目标选得很精确，一座热闹的车站，以增加死亡人数；孟买最豪华的酒店泰姬玛哈酒店和欧贝罗伊酒店，里面都是这城市的精英们。
"Everyone in my social class lost friends," says Cyrus Guzder, the chairman of AFL, a logistics firm. "We all socialise at the Taj and the Oberoi. We've all been to weddings and parties here." He sits in a soft chair in a members-only club in the Oberoi as a waiter serves canapés. The club is quiet and uncrowded, a rare luxury in this heaving, bustling city of 14m.
欧贝罗伊酒店会员专享的俱乐部很安静，人不多。孟买有一千四百万人口，熙熙攘攘，热闹拥挤，在这城市这样的安静和宽敞非常难得和奢侈。印度物流公司AFL的董事长Cyrus Guzder坐在沙发椅子上，服务员送来冷盘，他说，"我这个社会阶层的人都（在这次袭击中）失去了朋友。我们的聚会交往多在泰姬玛哈和欧贝罗伊酒店，所有人都去这两家酒店参加过婚礼或别的宴会。"
India's movers and shakers all seem to know each other. The Indian elite have created their own islands, frowns a cabinet minister: "It's a bit unhealthy." They send their kids to private schools. They have their own water and electricity. So they barely notice how bad the government is at delivering power, water and schooling to the other 1.2 billion Indians.
印度的大人物们好像都彼此认识，精英们为自己筑了一个岛，一位内阁部长说，"这样的社会状况并不健康。"富人们把孩子送到私人学校上学，用电用水都有专线。所以至于政府为其它12亿印度人提供的水电、教育服务等情况有多糟，富人们很少有机会注意到。
Yet to many Indians the nation's tycoons are heroes. A few made their fortunes corruptly, but the software moguls of Bangalore created a huge export industry out of nothing, and many others helped to spur India's galloping growth. Ratan Tata, the soon-to-retire boss of a conglomerate that produces everything from tea to cars, lives modestly and treats his employees well. The brothers Anil and Mukesh Ambani are more controversial, but they have turned the family business into two global giants, with interests from chemicals to entertainment.
然而许多印度都视国内的大亨巨富为英雄，尽管有一小部分是靠腐败发家的，大多数却为国家做出了贡献，班加罗尔的软件巨头们白手起家为国家创造出巨大的出口产业，其它一些企业家也都在帮助印度快速发展。塔塔集团涉及许多产业，生产的东西从茶叶到汽车应有尽有，即将退休的董事长拉坦塔塔生活较简朴、关心下属。不过，穆卡什和阿尼尔•阿姆巴尼兄弟(的奢侈生活)颇受争议，但他们分别将家族产业发展成了两个全球大集团，从化工到娱乐业全面赢利，也颇为难得。
Some Indian gazillionaires are flashy. Mukesh Ambani's house has 27 stories, three helipads and three floors of hanging gardens. Vijay Mallya, a beer-and-airlines magnate, constantly amuses the newspaper-reading public with his speedboats and sports teams. But for most of the country's elite the most conspicuous item of consumption is sending their children to university in America.
印度有些亿万富翁的生活极其奢侈，穆卡什•阿姆巴尼的豪宅有二十七层，三个直升飞机停场，三层空中花园。维贾伊•马尔雅身为酒业大亨、航空公司老板，常常在报纸上给民众带来他游艇队和足球队的消息。不过，对于大多数印度富人们来说，奢侈无非就是送小孩到美国上大学。
In much of India, life is getting perceptibly better each year. Wealth per person has vaulted by 150% in the past decade, from $2,000 to $5,000. Many Indians think the nation's entrepreneurs deserve some of the credit. In Dharavi, a slum outside Mumbai, an illiterate mother called Aruna sits in her tiny one-room flat, which is home to ten people. Asked how she feels about the rich, she says: "They have worked hard. And we must work hard, too." Her eldest daughter has a job entering data at a bank. The next one is studying diligently. The family may be near the bottom of the ladder, but it sees a way up.
印度大多数地方生活水平每年都有明显的提高，过去十年里，人均财富增加了百分之一百五，从两千美元增加到五千美元。许多印度人都敬重国内的企业家。在达拉维，孟买城郊的贫民区，一位名叫阿鲁�的不识字的母亲，坐在她那住着十个人却只有一个房间的小平房前，当问到她对富人有什么看法时，她说"富人努力工作。我们也应该努力工作。"她的大女儿在一家银行做打字员，第二个女儿正在勤奋学习。她的家庭可能是处在社会的底层，但以后会更好。
The party is watching you
党在监督你
The relationship between rich and poor in China is different. China's stellar growth has lifted some 500m people out of poverty. Much of the credit belongs to Chinese entrepreneurs. Since Mao's boot was lifted from their necks, they have built marvels, from the skyscrapers of Shanghai to the factories of Guangdong. Yet mainland Chinese business leaders operate in the shadow of a secretive and unaccountable ruling party. To get on, many join it. Some do so reluctantly, to avoid being crushed. Others do so gladly, hoping to use the power of the state to enrich themselves.
在中国，穷人与富人的关系却与印度不一样。中国飞快的发展，让大约五亿人走出了贫困，这成绩多亏中国的企业家。自摆脱了从毛的约束后，中国企业家创造了许多奇迹，从上海的摩天大楼到广东的工厂，一座座拨地而起。然而中国大陆的商业领导人还得在那不公开又难以捉摸的党的阴影下活动，为了继续下去，有些领导人加入党，有些是不情愿地加入了，以避免事业受到上损害，有些是开开心心地加入了，希望能够利用国家的力量为自己致富。
Individual party members are not entirely above the law. If a local bigwig behaves so appallingly that the resulting protests are heard in Beijing, the party may cut him down to size. In October last year the son of Li Gang, a senior police officer in Baoding, killed a pedestrian while allegedly drink-driving. He sped off, shouting, "report me if you dare; my dad is Li Gang!"
党员并不能真的凌驾于法律之上，如果地方权贵行为太差，民众的抗议声都传到了京城，党就会处分他了。去年十月，保定市警察局长李刚的儿子酒后驾驶撞死了人，飞驶而去，扔下话说，"你敢告就去告我啊，我爸是李刚。"
News of the incident went viral in the Chinese blogosphere. Pop songs with the refrain "My dad is Li Gang!" quickly circulated. Li Gang was forced to make a televised apology. His son was arrested. China's leaders would like the 95% of the population who are not members to think that the party cares. But the most revealing fact is that Mr Li junior evidently thought he could get away it.
这一事件在网络上引起了很大反响，有人写了流行歌曲，副歌部分反复唱"我爸是李刚"，在网上广为流传。李刚没办法，电视上公开道歉，他儿子被捕了，中国的领导人希望占人口95%群众知道党关心群众，不过为何小李们老是认为仅凭他老爸是李刚，就能逃脱所有法律制裁呢？
The party's tentacles are everywhere. State-owned firms do its bidding. Private firms must avoid offending it. Projects it supports make rapid progress. For example, it wants China to dominate the market for green energy. So when the price of polycrystalline silicon (the main raw material for solar panels) shot up in 2007-08, a businessman, Zhu Gongshan, won swift approval to build a factory to make it, and China's sovereign-wealth fund invested $710m in his venture.
党无处不在。国有企业参加党的招投标，私有企业必须尽量避免侵犯到党。党支持的项目可能快速发展，比如，党要中国成为绿色能源市场的主导，当2007到2008年度多晶硅（制造太阳能面板的主要原材料）价格大涨的时候，朱共山要建制造多晶硅的工厂，马上得到了支持，并且得到了中投公司七亿一千万美元的投资。
But since the party is accountable neither to voters nor to the law, there is little to prevent its bosses from abusing their power. The children of some of China's leaders have amassed huge fortunes in murky ways. Banks often lend to the well-connected instead of the creditworthy. Local leaders levy taxes that have no basis in law.
既然选民或法律对党都没有约束力，那么大官员自然可以肆无忌惮地滥用权力。有些中国领导人的孩子就以灰色手段大量敛财。而且银行贷款，不是贷给信用良好的人，而是贷给有关系的人。地方官员征税也不用法律依据。
Because business and power are so entwined, even the most able businesspeople are treated with suspicion outside China. For example, Huawei, a maker of telecoms equipment, whose products are generally considered excellent, nevertheless has trouble doing business in America because its founder, Ren Zhengfei, is a retired army officer. Some American congressmen assume that Huawei is a front for the People's Liberation Army. They fear that if the firm is allowed to supply sensitive communications infrastructure, it might bug it so that China's spies can listen in. There is no evidence to support this idea, but no way to investigate it either: Huawei's ownership structure is opaque.
官商勾结如此普遍，所以中国商人的能力在国外总要受到怀疑。电信器材公司华为，其产品质量优良，可是在美国做生意却受到阻拦，因为华为老总任正非系退休军官，所以有些美国国会议员认为华为是中国人民解放军的下属企业，担心如果华为给国家的通信基础设施提供产品，可能会有什么机关让中国间谍偷听了国家机密。这当然是无稽之谈，可是也没有办法解释清楚，华为的所有权结构是不透明的。
The perception that commercial success often depends on political ties makes inequality in China more galling. In the mid-1980s Chinese incomes were more evenly distributed than India's―hardly surprising, since China was nominally communist and India is afflicted by a caste system. But now China is less equal than India, with a Gini coefficient of 0.4 to India's 0.37. China has 800,000 dollar millionaires, but also 400m people who live on less than $2 a day.
商业成功总要依靠与政权的联系，所以中国的不平等更让人愤愤不平。在二十世纪八十年代，中国收入分配比印度平均，这没什么奇怪的，中国至少名义上是共产主义，而印度深受种姓制度的影响。但现在中国收入分配比印度更不公平，中国的基尼系数是0.4，印度0.37。中国有八十万名百万美元的富翁（译者说，这么少吗？算了下按14亿人口，每1750人当中有一位，也不少吧），同时又有四亿人民依靠每日平均2美元的收入过日子。
The disparity between rural and urban incomes is also vast. City-dwellers make two-and-a-half times as much as rural Chinese―the widest such gap in any big country. This is partly because of a system of residence permits, called hukou, that resembles the pass system in South Africa under apartheid. People with a city hukou can live and work there freely. Those with a rural hukou can come to a city only as guest workers. Some 150m rural Chinese work in cities without the right to live there, in effect making them foreigners in their own country. They often cannot use public schools and clinics, and they are barred from public housing. Peasants who protest can be deported back to the countryside.
城市与农村的收入差距也很大。城市人均收入是农村人均的2.5倍，在较大的国家里是差距最大的。这种差距也许与户口制度有关，户口制度类似于非洲种族隔离时期的情况，城市户口的人能在该市自由生活和工作，可是农村户口的人只在做为打工的外来人口，大概有一亿五千万农村人在城市里打工，他们都不能享受在那里生活的权利，事实上成了在国内的"外来人口"，基本上都不能享受公共学校、公共医疗的服务，更别提公共住房的待遇了。如果你想抗议，城市可以把你遣回农村去。
The government has promised to liberalise the hukou system, but cities can still exclude anyone they like, and often do. Real freedom of movement would prompt 250m peasants to move to the cities, predicts Yukon Huang, a former head of the World Bank's office in China. City folk don't want that. The incomers might clog their schools, build slums on their doorstep or compete with them for jobs.
政府承诺改革户口制度，然而各个城市现在还是有权力遣回任何没有城市户口的人，而且经常使用到这项权力。如果真要改革，据前世界银行中国局局长黄育川估计有两亿五千万人要涌进城市。城市人当然不愿意，到时候学校里都是农村来的小孩，门口是农村人的贫民窟，农村人还要和城里人竞争工作。
Or for women. Guy Sorman, the author of a sceptical book about China, "The Empire of Lies", describes a rule in Shanghai that allows a local man to obtain a hukou for his wife from outside after 15 years of marriage, but makes no provision for a Shanghai woman to marry someone from elsewhere. Asked why not, the mayor's office told Mr Sorman it was unthinkable that a Shanghai woman would marry a "foreigner".
中国对女性也不公平。索尔孟（Guy Sorman）写了一本关于中国的书《谎言帝国》，书中讲道上海市有一项规定本地男性如果与外地女性结婚，婚后十五年可以为妻子申请上海户口，可是却没有上海女性与外地男性结婚为丈夫申请户口的条例，索尔孟问市长办公室的人为什么，得到的回答却是，"上海女人会和外地人结婚，不可想象。"
The hukou system was designed to help the party control the people. But by creating two Chinas, it is building up tensions that one day could explode.
户口制度的设立是为了让党能更好地控制人民但是无形中建起了两个中国，两者之差距所带来的压力终有一天要爆发的。
赘言：全文显示了印度的美好和中国的体制腐朽。选举、多党、权力制衡，这是经济学人的信条，也是现代西方政治文化的信条。
本文有偏颇亦有实情，关于实情，在我看来，这不是一篇写亚洲新贵的文章，而是一篇写中国制度与目前社会矛盾的文章。经济学人看中国制度，它讲我们应当依法治国，应当制衡监督党行使执政之权力。它讲得对，党的观点是也是这样的，不同的就是一个坚持多党才能制衡，一个坚持党自身加强建设。
关于偏颇，本文所讲印度就那么社会和谐，中国就这样矛盾重重？我认为不是。但是我们仍然不能忽略矛盾，收入分配不公平、城乡差距过大实际上是我们能切身感受到的。希望以后人人有其业、有居所。
亚洲新贵
What Indians and Chinese make of their tycoons
印度人和中国人怎么看待国内大亨
Jan 20th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION
2011年1月20日 经济学人
Costly cars for comrades
给同志们的高价车
A TINY tropical fish sits in a glass vase on each table in a restaurant in the lobby of the Oberoi Hotel. A bright red piano fills the air with music. The passion fruit soufflé with bitter chocolate pavé and goats' milk ice cream is delicious. The bill would ruin most Indians.
欧贝罗伊酒店餐厅大厅里每张餐桌上都放着一个玻璃花瓶，瓶里有小小的一尾热带鱼。亮红的钢琴，琴声在空气中飘扬。西番莲甜点，牛奶冰淇淋外面有层微带苦涩的纯巧克力，美味！不过价格不菲，大多数印度人来吃一餐可得吃穷了。
One day gunmen walked into the restaurant and shot diners and staff at close range, spattering blood over the walls. At least 175 people died in the attacks that began on November 26th 2008 in Mumbai. The terrorists appear to have chosen their targets precisely. A crowded station, to maximise the death toll. A small Jewish centre. And the poshest hotels in Mumbai―the Taj and the Oberoi―which were packed with the city's elite.
有一天，一群歹徒走进了餐馆，近距离扫射客人与工作人员，鲜血溅在墙上。2008年11月26日发生在孟买的恐怖袭击，死亡人数至少有175人。恐怖主义者把目标选得很精确，一座热闹的车站，以增加死亡人数；孟买最豪华的酒店泰姬玛哈酒店和欧贝罗伊酒店，里面都是这城市的精英们。
"Everyone in my social class lost friends," says Cyrus Guzder, the chairman of AFL, a logistics firm. "We all socialise at the Taj and the Oberoi. We've all been to weddings and parties here." He sits in a soft chair in a members-only club in the Oberoi as a waiter serves canapés. The club is quiet and uncrowded, a rare luxury in this heaving, bustling city of 14m.
欧贝罗伊酒店会员专享的俱乐部很安静，人不多。孟买有一千四百万人口，熙熙攘攘，热闹拥挤，在这城市这样的安静和宽敞非常难得和奢侈。印度物流公司AFL的董事长Cyrus Guzder坐在沙发椅子上，服务员送来冷盘，他说，"我这个社会阶层的人都（在这次袭击中）失去了朋友。我们的聚会交往多在泰姬玛哈和欧贝罗伊酒店，所有人都去这两家酒店参加过婚礼或别的宴会。"
India's movers and shakers all seem to know each other. The Indian elite have created their own islands, frowns a cabinet minister: "It's a bit unhealthy." They send their kids to private schools. They have their own water and electricity. So they barely notice how bad the government is at delivering power, water and schooling to the other 1.2 billion Indians.
印度的大人物们好像都彼此认识，精英们为自己筑了一个岛，一位内阁部长说，"这样的社会状况并不健康。"富人们把孩子送到私人学校上学，用电用水都有专线。所以至于政府为其它12亿印度人提供的水电、教育服务等情况有多糟，富人们很少有机会注意到。
Yet to many Indians the nation's tycoons are heroes. A few made their fortunes corruptly, but the software moguls of Bangalore created a huge export industry out of nothing, and many others helped to spur India's galloping growth. Ratan Tata, the soon-to-retire boss of a conglomerate that produces everything from tea to cars, lives modestly and treats his employees well. The brothers Anil and Mukesh Ambani are more controversial, but they have turned the family business into two global giants, with interests from chemicals to entertainment.
然而许多印度都视国内的大亨巨富为英雄，尽管有一小部分是靠腐败发家的，大多数却为国家做出了贡献，班加罗尔的软件巨头们白手起家为国家创造出巨大的出口产业，其它一些企业家也都在帮助印度快速发展。塔塔集团涉及许多产业，生产的东西从茶叶到汽车应有尽有，即将退休的董事长拉坦塔塔生活较简朴、关心下属。不过，穆卡什和阿尼尔•阿姆巴尼兄弟(的奢侈生活)颇受争议，但他们分别将家族产业发展成了两个全球大集团，从化工到娱乐业全面赢利，也颇为难得。
Some Indian gazillionaires are flashy. Mukesh Ambani's house has 27 stories, three helipads and three floors of hanging gardens. Vijay Mallya, a beer-and-airlines magnate, constantly amuses the newspaper-reading public with his speedboats and sports teams. But for most of the country's elite the most conspicuous item of consumption is sending their children to university in America.
印度有些亿万富翁的生活极其奢侈，穆卡什•阿姆巴尼的豪宅有二十七层，三个直升飞机停场，三层空中花园。维贾伊•马尔雅身为酒业大亨、航空公司老板，常常在报纸上给民众带来他游艇队和足球队的消息。不过，对于大多数印度富人们来说，奢侈无非就是送小孩到美国上大学。
In much of India, life is getting perceptibly better each year. Wealth per person has vaulted by 150% in the past decade, from $2,000 to $5,000. Many Indians think the nation's entrepreneurs deserve some of the credit. In Dharavi, a slum outside Mumbai, an illiterate mother called Aruna sits in her tiny one-room flat, which is home to ten people. Asked how she feels about the rich, she says: "They have worked hard. And we must work hard, too." Her eldest daughter has a job entering data at a bank. The next one is studying diligently. The family may be near the bottom of the ladder, but it sees a way up.
印度大多数地方生活水平每年都有明显的提高，过去十年里，人均财富增加了百分之一百五，从两千美元增加到五千美元。许多印度人都敬重国内的企业家。在达拉维，孟买城郊的贫民区，一位名叫阿鲁�的不识字的母亲，坐在她那住着十个人却只有一个房间的小平房前，当问到她对富人有什么看法时，她说"富人努力工作。我们也应该努力工作。"她的大女儿在一家银行做打字员，第二个女儿正在勤奋学习。她的家庭可能是处在社会的底层，但以后会更好。
The party is watching you
党在监督你
The relationship between rich and poor in China is different. China's stellar growth has lifted some 500m people out of poverty. Much of the credit belongs to Chinese entrepreneurs. Since Mao's boot was lifted from their necks, they have built marvels, from the skyscrapers of Shanghai to the factories of Guangdong. Yet mainland Chinese business leaders operate in the shadow of a secretive and unaccountable ruling party. To get on, many join it. Some do so reluctantly, to avoid being crushed. Others do so gladly, hoping to use the power of the state to enrich themselves.
在中国，穷人与富人的关系却与印度不一样。中国飞快的发展，让大约五亿人走出了贫困，这成绩多亏中国的企业家。自摆脱了从毛的约束后，中国企业家创造了许多奇迹，从上海的摩天大楼到广东的工厂，一座座拨地而起。然而中国大陆的商业领导人还得在那不公开又难以捉摸的党的阴影下活动，为了继续下去，有些领导人加入党，有些是不情愿地加入了，以避免事业受到上损害，有些是开开心心地加入了，希望能够利用国家的力量为自己致富。
Individual party members are not entirely above the law. If a local bigwig behaves so appallingly that the resulting protests are heard in Beijing, the party may cut him down to size. In October last year the son of Li Gang, a senior police officer in Baoding, killed a pedestrian while allegedly drink-driving. He sped off, shouting, "report me if you dare; my dad is Li Gang!"
党员并不能真的凌驾于法律之上，如果地方权贵行为太差，民众的抗议声都传到了京城，党就会处分他了。去年十月，保定市警察局长李刚的儿子酒后驾驶撞死了人，飞驶而去，扔下话说，"你敢告就去告我啊，我爸是李刚。"
News of the incident went viral in the Chinese blogosphere. Pop songs with the refrain "My dad is Li Gang!" quickly circulated. Li Gang was forced to make a televised apology. His son was arrested. China's leaders would like the 95% of the population who are not members to think that the party cares. But the most revealing fact is that Mr Li junior evidently thought he could get away it.
这一事件在网络上引起了很大反响，有人写了流行歌曲，副歌部分反复唱"我爸是李刚"，在网上广为流传。李刚没办法，电视上公开道歉，他儿子被捕了，中国的领导人希望占人口95%群众知道党关心群众，不过为何小李们老是认为仅凭他老爸是李刚，就能逃脱所有法律制裁呢？
The party's tentacles are everywhere. State-owned firms do its bidding. Private firms must avoid offending it. Projects it supports make rapid progress. For example, it wants China to dominate the market for green energy. So when the price of polycrystalline silicon (the main raw material for solar panels) shot up in 2007-08, a businessman, Zhu Gongshan, won swift approval to build a factory to make it, and China's sovereign-wealth fund invested $710m in his venture.
党无处不在。国有企业参加党的招投标，私有企业必须尽量避免侵犯到党。党支持的项目可能快速发展，比如，党要中国成为绿色能源市场的主导，当2007到2008年度多晶硅（制造太阳能面板的主要原材料）价格大涨的时候，朱共山要建制造多晶硅的工厂，马上得到了支持，并且得到了中投公司七亿一千万美元的投资。
But since the party is accountable neither to voters nor to the law, there is little to prevent its bosses from abusing their power. The children of some of China's leaders have amassed huge fortunes in murky ways. Banks often lend to the well-connected instead of the creditworthy. Local leaders levy taxes that have no basis in law.
既然选民或法律对党都没有约束力，那么大官员自然可以肆无忌惮地滥用权力。有些中国领导人的孩子就以灰色手段大量敛财。而且银行贷款，不是贷给信用良好的人，而是贷给有关系的人。地方官员征税也不用法律依据。
Because business and power are so entwined, even the most able businesspeople are treated with suspicion outside China. For example, Huawei, a maker of telecoms equipment, whose products are generally considered excellent, nevertheless has trouble doing business in America because its founder, Ren Zhengfei, is a retired army officer. Some American congressmen assume that Huawei is a front for the People's Liberation Army. They fear that if the firm is allowed to supply sensitive communications infrastructure, it might bug it so that China's spies can listen in. There is no evidence to support this idea, but no way to investigate it either: Huawei's ownership structure is opaque.
官商勾结如此普遍，所以中国商人的能力在国外总要受到怀疑。电信器材公司华为，其产品质量优良，可是在美国做生意却受到阻拦，因为华为老总任正非系退休军官，所以有些美国国会议员认为华为是中国人民解放军的下属企业，担心如果华为给国家的通信基础设施提供产品，可能会有什么机关让中国间谍偷听了国家机密。这当然是无稽之谈，可是也没有办法解释清楚，华为的所有权结构是不透明的。
The perception that commercial success often depends on political ties makes inequality in China more galling. In the mid-1980s Chinese incomes were more evenly distributed than India's―hardly surprising, since China was nominally communist and India is afflicted by a caste system. But now China is less equal than India, with a Gini coefficient of 0.4 to India's 0.37. China has 800,000 dollar millionaires, but also 400m people who live on less than $2 a day.
商业成功总要依靠与政权的联系，所以中国的不平等更让人愤愤不平。在二十世纪八十年代，中国收入分配比印度平均，这没什么奇怪的，中国至少名义上是共产主义，而印度深受种姓制度的影响。但现在中国收入分配比印度更不公平，中国的基尼系数是0.4，印度0.37。中国有八十万名百万美元的富翁（译者说，这么少吗？算了下按14亿人口，每1750人当中有一位，也不少吧），同时又有四亿人民依靠每日平均2美元的收入过日子。
The disparity between rural and urban incomes is also vast. City-dwellers make two-and-a-half times as much as rural Chinese―the widest such gap in any big country. This is partly because of a system of residence permits, called hukou, that resembles the pass system in South Africa under apartheid. People with a city hukou can live and work there freely. Those with a rural hukou can come to a city only as guest workers. Some 150m rural Chinese work in cities without the right to live there, in effect making them foreigners in their own country. They often cannot use public schools and clinics, and they are barred from public housing. Peasants who protest can be deported back to the countryside.
城市与农村的收入差距也很大。城市人均收入是农村人均的2.5倍，在较大的国家里是差距最大的。这种差距也许与户口制度有关，户口制度类似于非洲种族隔离时期的情况，城市户口的人能在该市自由生活和工作，可是农村户口的人只在做为打工的外来人口，大概有一亿五千万农村人在城市里打工，他们都不能享受在那里生活的权利，事实上成了在国内的"外来人口"，基本上都不能享受公共学校、公共医疗的服务，更别提公共住房的待遇了。如果你想抗议，城市可以把你遣回农村去。
The government has promised to liberalise the hukou system, but cities can still exclude anyone they like, and often do. Real freedom of movement would prompt 250m peasants to move to the cities, predicts Yukon Huang, a former head of the World Bank's office in China. City folk don't want that. The incomers might clog their schools, build slums on their doorstep or compete with them for jobs.
政府承诺改革户口制度，然而各个城市现在还是有权力遣回任何没有城市户口的人，而且经常使用到这项权力。如果真要改革，据前世界银行中国局局长黄育川估计有两亿五千万人要涌进城市。城市人当然不愿意，到时候学校里都是农村来的小孩，门口是农村人的贫民窟，农村人还要和城里人竞争工作。
Or for women. Guy Sorman, the author of a sceptical book about China, "The Empire of Lies", describes a rule in Shanghai that allows a local man to obtain a hukou for his wife from outside after 15 years of marriage, but makes no provision for a Shanghai woman to marry someone from elsewhere. Asked why not, the mayor's office told Mr Sorman it was unthinkable that a Shanghai woman would marry a "foreigner".
中国对女性也不公平。索尔孟（Guy Sorman）写了一本关于中国的书《谎言帝国》，书中讲道上海市有一项规定本地男性如果与外地女性结婚，婚后十五年可以为妻子申请上海户口，可是却没有上海女性与外地男性结婚为丈夫申请户口的条例，索尔孟问市长办公室的人为什么，得到的回答却是，"上海女人会和外地人结婚，不可想象。"
The hukou system was designed to help the party control the people. But by creating two Chinas, it is building up tensions that one day could explode.
户口制度的设立是为了让党能更好地控制人民但是无形中建起了两个中国，两者之差距所带来的压力终有一天要爆发的。
赘言：全文显示了印度的美好和中国的体制腐朽。选举、多党、权力制衡，这是经济学人的信条，也是现代西方政治文化的信条。
本文有偏颇亦有实情，关于实情，在我看来，这不是一篇写亚洲新贵的文章，而是一篇写中国制度与目前社会矛盾的文章。经济学人看中国制度，它讲我们应当依法治国，应当制衡监督党行使执政之权力。它讲得对，党的观点是也是这样的，不同的就是一个坚持多党才能制衡，一个坚持党自身加强建设。
关于偏颇，本文所讲印度就那么社会和谐，中国就这样矛盾重重？我认为不是。但是我们仍然不能忽略矛盾，收入分配不公平、城乡差距过大实际上是我们能切身感受到的。希望以后人人有其业、有居所。
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A spark of genius
| Einstein and car batteries 爱因斯坦和汽车电池 A spark of genius 天才的灵光 Without the magic of relativity, a car's starter motor would not turn 要不是相对论的魔力，汽车的发动马达就转不起来 Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION  ALBERT EINSTEIN never learned to drive. He thought it too complicated and in any case he preferred walking. What he did not know―indeed, what no one knew until now―is that most cars would not work without the intervention of one of his most famous discoveries, the special theory of relativity. 阿尔伯特.爱因斯坦从没去学开车。他觉得开车太复杂，再者，他更喜欢走路。而他不知道的――也是直到现在人们才知道的是――没有他的伟大发现之一，即狭义相对论，大多数汽车不可能发动起来。 Special relativity deals with physical extremes. It governs the behaviour of subatomic particles zipping around powerful accelerators at close to the speed of light and its equations foresaw the conversion of mass into energy in nuclear bombs. A paper in Physical Review Letters, however, reports a more prosaic application. According to the calculations of Pekka Pyykko of the University of Helsinki and his colleagues, the familiar lead-acid battery that sits under a car's bonnet and provides the oomph to get the engine turning owes its ability to do so to special relativity. 狭义相对论同物理极限相关。该理论掌握了亚原子粒子在强大的加速器的作用下可以达到接近光速的速度这一表现行为。相对论的公式也预见了核弹中质（量）能（量）转换的现象。然而，一篇发表在物理评论快报上的文章，讲述了狭义相对论更为一般的应用。根据赫尔辛基大学的Pekka Pyykko和他同事们的计算，我们所熟悉的在汽车发动机罩下，给汽车引擎发动提供能量的铅酸电池，它之所以有这样的能力都归功于狭义相对论。 Relative values 相对的价值 The lead-acid battery is one of the triumphs of 19th-century technology. It was invented in 1860 and is still going strong. Superficially, its mechanism is well understood. Indeed, it is the stuff of high-school chemistry books. But Dr Pyykko realised that there was a problem. In his view, when you dug deeply enough into the battery's physical chemistry, that chemistry did not explain how it worked. 铅酸电池是19世纪技术发展的产物之一。它于1860年发明，迄今为止仍然具有很强的实用性。表面上，其机制为人熟知这些都是高中化学课本上的东西。但Pyykko博士发觉了哪里不对劲。在他看来，越是深入研究电池的物理化学特性，这些化学特性反而越不能解释电池到底是怎么工作的。 A lead-acid battery is a collection of cells, each of which contains two electrodes immersed in a strong solution of sulphuric acid. One of the electrodes is composed of metallic lead, the other of porous lead dioxide. In the parlance of chemists, metallic lead is electropositive. This means that when it reacts with the acid, it tends to lose some of its electrons. Lead dioxide, on the other hand, is highly electronegative, preferring to absorb electrons in chemical reactions. If a conductive wire is run between the two, electrons released by the lead will run through it towards the lead dioxide, generating an electrical current as they do so. The bigger the difference in the electropositivity and electronegativity of the materials that make up a battery's electrodes, the bigger the voltage it can deliver. In the case of lead and lead dioxide, this potential difference is just over two volts per cell. 铅酸电池是电池单元构成的集合，其中每个电池都有两个电极，浸泡在硫酸溶液的电解液里。金属铅充当一处电极，另一处电极是多孔二氧化铅。化学家认为，金属铅是电正性物质。这表明，当铅和酸发生反应时，它很可能失去一些电子。而另一方面，二氧化铅是电负性物质，在化学反应中更喜欢吸收电子。如果把一根导电金属丝放在金属铅和二氧化铅之间，铅释放的电子会经金属丝传递到二氧化铅，这个过程会产生电流。组成电池两级的物质的正负电荷差越大，他们发生化学反应时产生的电伏数越大。以铅和二氧化铅为例的电池，每节电池的电位差可产生2伏电压。 That much has been known since the lead-acid battery was invented. However, although the properties of these basic chemical reactions have been measured and understood to the nth degree, no one has been able to show from first principles exactly why lead and lead dioxide tend to be so electropositive and electronegative. This is a particular mystery because tin, which shares many of the features of lead, makes lousy batteries. Metallic tin is not electropositive enough compared with the electronegativity of its oxide to deliver a useful potential difference. 自铅酸电池发明以来，上述的理论就已为人熟知。然而，尽管很大程度上我们都掌握和了解这些基础化学反应，却没有人能够真正说明最根本的原理――为什么铅和二氧化铅带有这般的电正性和电负性呢？这一点显得颇为神秘，因为和铅特性差不大多的锡，无法用来做电池。比起铅来，金属锡的电正性没有二氧化锡的电负性强，所以无法产生可用的电位差。 This is partly explained because the bigger an atom is, the more weakly its outer electrons are bound to it (and hence the further those electrons are from the nucleus). In all groups of chemically similar elements the heaviest are the most electropositive. However, this is not enough to account for the difference between lead and tin. To put it bluntly, classical chemical theory predicts that cars should not start in the morning. 原子越大，其外层电子受原子束缚力越弱，这是解释铅和锡两者差别的一部分原因。在化学性质相似的同族元素中，质量越重带的正电越强。然而这依然不能充分说明铅和锡的差别。直截了当地说， 古典化学理论预言了早上（要离家上班）汽车是发不动的。 Which is where Einstein comes in. For, according to Dr Pyykko's calculations, relativity explains why tin batteries do not work, but lead ones do. 那爱因斯坦怎么被扯进来了，根据Pyykko博士的计算，相对论解释了为什么铅可以用来做电池，而锡不可以。 His chain of reasoning goes like this. Lead, being heavier than tin, has more protons in its nucleus (82, against tin's 50). That means its nucleus has a stronger positive charge and that, in turn, means the electrons orbiting the nucleus are more attracted to it and travel faster, at roughly 60% of the speed of light, compared with 35% for the electrons orbiting a tin atom. As the one Einsteinian equation everybody can quote, E=mc2, predicts, the kinetic energy of this extra velocity (ie, a higher E) makes lead's electrons more massive than tin's (increasing m)―and heavy electrons tend to fall in and circle the nucleus in more tightly bound orbitals. 他一连串的理由是这样解释的。铅比锡重，核子里的质子数更多（82比50）。这表明原子核的正电更强，同理表明更容易吸引绕着原子核的电子，电子传播的速度也更快，其速度是光速的60%，相比之下，绕着锡原子的电子速度只能达到光速的35%。人人都会引用的爱因斯坦相对论公式：E=mc2，公式表明这一额外速度（即更高的能量）产生的动能使得铅的电子比锡的更重（不断增加的质量）――而重的电子往往会下落，围着结合更紧密的原子核轨道绕行。 That has the effect of making metallic lead less electropositive (ie, more electronegative) than classical theory indicates it should be―which would tend to make the battery worse. But this tendency is more than counterbalanced by an increase in the electronegativity of lead dioxide. In this compound, the tightly bound orbitals act like wells into which free electrons can fall, allowing the material to capture them more easily. That makes lead dioxide much more electronegative than classical theory would predict. 产生的结果是，金属铅的电正性没有古典化学理论认为的那么强（或者说，更为电负性）――看起来似乎铅不适合用来做电池。但是， 二氧化铅电负性的增加不但全部抵消了这个趋势还有剩余。在这个混合物里，结合紧密的轨道就像一口井，自由电子落入其中，使得物质更容易捕获电子。二氧化铅的电负性其实比古典化学理论认为的要更强。 And so it turned out. Dr Pyykko and his colleagues made two versions of a computer model of how lead-acid batteries work. One incorporated their newly hypothesised relativistic effects while the other did not. The relativistic simulations predicted the voltages measured in real lead-acid batteries with great precision. When relativity was excluded, roughly 80% of that voltage disappeared. 然后他们得出了结论。Pyykko博士和他的同事们作了两个版本的电脑模型，来观察铅酸电池是怎么工作的。其中一个模型结合使用了相对论效应的新假设，另一个没有用。相对论模拟模型预测的铅酸电池产生的电压相当精确。而那个不用相对论的模型大约80%的电伏都没有计算到。 That is an extraordinary finding, and it prompts the question of whether previously unsuspected battery materials might be lurking at the heavier end of the periodic table. Ironically, today's most fashionable battery material, lithium, is the third-lightest element in that table―and therefore one for which no such relativistic effects can be expected. And lead is about as heavy as it gets before elements become routinely radioactive and thus inappropriate for all but specialised applications. Still, the search for better batteries is an endless one, and Dr Pyykko's discovery might prompt some new thinking about what is possible in this and other areas of heavy-element chemistry. 这是个非同凡响的发现，这个发现也提出了一个问题。是否还有以前没想到的，潜伏在元素周期表末端的电池材料？讽刺的是，现在最时髦的电池材料，锂，是周期表中第三轻的元素――如果用相对论效应是料不到它可以用来做电池。铅是周期表中放射性元素之前最重的元素，因此除了用于专门应用外不适用于他处。而有关更好的电池材料的研究是没有止境的，Pyykko博士的发现也许给我们提供了一些新的思考方向――化学重金属在电池和其他地方还有什么作为？ from PRINT EDITION | Science and Technology |
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