The Next Banking Storm

By ASSIF SHAMEEN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Hong Kong's banks look headed for trouble, thanks to heavy exposure to China.

 

Emerging Markets

For months, investors have been focused on Chinese banks' huge exposure to local governments, as well as to speculative real estate. Now they are turning to Hong Kong, where another banking storm might be brewing.

Hong Kong lenders may have dramatically increased their exposure to China just when concerns about that economy were mounting. Ratings agency Fitch warned recently that it could soon downgrade the credit standing of Hong Kong's banks because of their fast-growing commitments to China.

Banks in Hong Kong have historically been among Asia's best-run, best-capitalized financial institutions, often the envy of their peers. Indeed, they emerged from the financial crisis two years ago with their reputations intact. But now, with China's economy slowing, bank margins are under pressure, deposit costs are rising and there is a liquidity squeeze, warns Nomura Securities Daniel Shum.

ON TOP OF ALL THAT, the banks appear to be extending new loans like there's no tomorrow. Bank loans in Hong Kong grew by a whopping 26% in August, compared with the level a year earlier. Fast loan growth like that is often a prelude to credit-quality problems.

The main driver of this growth, says Ismael Pili, a bank analyst for Macquarie Securities, is "trade finance and Chinese companies that are borrowing in Hong Kong for operations or assets overseas." Mainland Chinese outfits have been on a borrowing spree to buy assets elsewhere in Asia, Africa, and even Europe and the U.S., to take advantage of low interest rates in Hong Kong, whose currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Trade financing by Hong Kong banks grew 102.3% in the first half of this year, compared with the total in the corresponding period last year. And loans outside Hong Kong grew 37.9%. "These are scary numbers because we have never seen Hong Kong banks grow loans to non-traditional sectors this way or as fast," says Michael Werner, a Sanford C. Bernstein analyst.

THE RAPID LOAN GROWTH appears to be coming in response to lower interest rates and, as a result, lower profit margins for banks. "Banks had little choice other than to go out and just expand their loan volumes," Werner asserts.

Of course, the lending surge won't necessarily produce bad loans. "Asset quality is high with no immediate sign of deterioration," says Martin Wardle, Partner at KPMG China in Hong Kong. "With strong loan growth some increase in losses is to be expected but we don't see this being significant." Morgan Stanley has a Sell on Bank of East Asia (ticker: 0023.HongKong) because its weak profitability makes it the institution most vulnerable to even a small bit of credit deterioration. The investment firm also recommends avoiding smallish Wing Hang Bank (0302.HongKong).

But some well-capitalized bank stocks have been hammered so badly that they're starting to look attractive. Nomura's Shum recommends buying BOC Hong Kong (2388.HongKong), a subsidiary of Bank of China. He sees the stock rising more than 40%, to HK $28 (US$3.61). It trades at 11 times next year's estimated earnings and 1.4 times book value. The shares yield 5.8%.

Jumping On

Asian markets joined the global rally, with Hong Kong and Thailand in the lead.

ASSIF SHAMEEN covers Asian markets from Hong Kong

崖山之後�中�，明亡之後��夏

崖山之後无中国?

1276年初，蒙古铁骑一路南下，临安沦陷，南宋朝廷土崩瓦解。年幼的益王赵�和广王赵�，在母亲杨太后的带领下，逃出都城，到达温州。大臣陆秀夫派人招来了躲藏于此的陈宜中，大将张世杰也率兵从定海前来会合。五月一日，赵�在福州即位，是为端宗，改元景炎。陈宜中被任命为左丞相兼枢密使，张世杰为枢密副使，陆秀夫为签书枢密院事。　南宋虽然投降蒙元，但福建、两广大片地区仍处在流亡小朝廷的控制之下，李庭芝也在淮东、淮西地区进行着顽强抵抗。但淮东、淮西等地相继失陷，李庭芝战死。景炎元年（1276）十一月，元军逼近福州，此时福州有正规军17万，民兵30万，淮兵万人，足可一战，但由于主持朝政的陈宜中胆小怕事，因此小朝廷立足未稳，就又开始了逃亡。离开福州之后，朝廷只能四处流亡，辗转泉州、潮州、惠州等地。景炎三年（1278）春，来到雷州附近。逃亡途中，宰相陈宜中借口联络占城，一去不返。端宗在逃亡途中患病，四月十五日病死，年仅11岁。端宗死后，群龙无首，眼看朝廷就要分崩离析，陆秀夫慷慨激昂，振作士气： "诸君为何散去？度宗一子还在，他怎么办呢？古人有靠一城一旅复兴的，何况如今还有上万将士，只要老天不绝赵氏，难道不能靠此再造一个国家么？"众臣便又拥立年方7岁的赵�为帝，改元祥兴。
元军步步为营，不久雷州失守，形势危急。张世杰数次率军反攻雷州，但都没有成功，于是将流亡政权迁至崖山。历史似乎注定了要选在这里翻开空前悲壮的一页。

宋军到达崖山时，尚有正规军和民兵20万人，而进攻的元军只有数万，仅就兵力而言，双方相差悬殊，且元军不善水战，宋军无疑占有优势。但张世杰此时指挥出现了严重失误，他判断蒙古人的优势是骑兵，不擅水战，必须依靠水军与之作战，因此放弃了对崖门入海口的控制，把千余艘战船背山面海，用大索连接，四面围起楼栅，结成水寨方阵，把木制战船两侧用衬垫覆盖，以防御元军的火箭和炮弩，赵�的御船居于方阵之中，打算在此死守。张世杰此举失误在于，一是放弃了对入海口的控制权，等于把战争的主动权拱手交给了对方；二是把千余战船贯以大索，结成水寨，虽然集中了力量，却丧失了机动性。此后张弘范率大批元军赶到，控制了崖山之南的入海口，又从北面和南面两个侧翼切断了宋军的所有退路。宋军陷入孤立无援的境地，此后10多天的中，宋军只能以干粮充饥，饮海水解渴，饮过海水的士兵呕吐不止，战斗力严重削弱。

当时，张世杰有个外甥在元军中，张弘范一连三次派其至宋营对张世杰劝降，张世杰说："吾知降生且富贵，但义不可移耳！"。张弘范又叫囚禁中的文天祥写信招降张世杰，文天祥说："吾不能捍父母，乃教人叛父母，可呼？"于是他写出了那首千古传诵的《过零丁洋》。张弘范看了一笑置之。张弘范没法，再派人向崖山的士民说："你陈（宜中）丞相已去（占城），文（天祥）丞相已执，你们还想怎样呢？"士民亦无叛者。　二月初六早晨，元军发起总攻。元将李恒指挥水军利用早晨退潮、海水南流的时机，渡过平时战舰难以渡过的浅水，从北面对宋军发动了一场突袭，到中午，北面的宋军已被元军击溃。南面的元军又在张弘范的指挥下，利用中午涨潮、海水北流的时机，向宋军发动了另一次进攻。宋军南北受敌，士兵又身心疲惫，无力战斗，全线溃败。战斗从黎明进行到黄昏，宋军阵脚大乱，张世杰下令砍断绳索，率10余战舰护卫杨太后突围。张世杰率帅船杀到外围，见赵�的御船过于庞大，无法突围，便派小舟前去接应。当时天色已晚，海面上风雨大作，对面不辨人影，陆秀夫惟恐小船为元军假冒，断然拒绝来人将赵�接走。张世杰无奈，只得率战舰护卫着杨太后杀出崖门。

宋军败局已定，陆秀夫知道已没有逃脱的可能，便把自己的妻子儿子赶下大海，然后对赵�说："事已至此，陛下当为国捐躯。德佑皇帝受辱已甚，陛下不可再辱！"赵�身穿龙袍，胸挂玉玺，随陆秀夫跳海自尽。数天之后，陆秀夫尸体浮出海面，被当地乡人冒死收葬。元军在清理战场的时候，发现一具身穿黄衣的幼童尸体，身上带有金玺，上书"诏书之宝"四字，送交张弘范，经确认是赵�所带玉玺。张弘范再派人寻找赵�尸体时，已下落不明。

张世杰保护杨太后冲出重围，听到帝�的死讯后，杨太后手掩胸口大哭："我不顾生死，万里跋涉来到这里，为的是存血脉，现在已经无望了！"于是跳海身亡。元军继续派重兵追击张世杰，处于弱势的宋军且战且走。张世杰计划到占城后整顿军马，再图恢复，五月初四，船到南恩州平章港（今阳江海陵岛）遭遇台风。部下劝他登岸，他说不用了，焚香仰天拜道："我为赵氏亦已尽心尽力，一君亡，又立一君，现又已亡，我不死，是想为赵氏存宗祀。天若不让我光复赵氏，大风吹翻吾船！"此时，风浪更大，舟覆人亡，幸存士卒为张世杰焚尸殓葬，墓今仍在海陵岛上。南宋这支残存的抵抗力量至此完全覆没。

崖山之战是灭亡南宋的最后一战，从战术层面看来，张世杰、陆秀夫等人的部署失当，对战役失败负有不可推卸的责任，但他们在绝境中所表现出来的民族气节和那种知其不可为而为之的勇气，不能不让人叹服。今日位于崖山南面的崖山祠，是一座古老的建筑。在这里供奉有陆秀夫和张世杰的塑像，以纪念他们的忠烈。这两个人，一文一武，正是在流浪小朝廷中起了关键作用的中流砥柱。

文天祥、陆秀夫、张世杰也被后世并称为"宋末三杰"。

崖山海战，是空前惨烈的一场战役，说其惨烈，更多的是体现在战役胜负已定之后。在大势已去的情况下，为了不使战舰落入敌手，宋军将数百艘战舰自行凿沉，然后，超过十万众的南宋军民，包括官员、士兵、妇女、百姓，不愿被残暴的蒙古政权所奴役，纷纷韬海自尽……蒙元所编的宋史客观的记载了这段史实：七日之后，海上浮尸以十万计……10万人自杀，在浩如烟海的中国历史长河中，只留下了一行字，但它背后的震撼意义，令后人叹息不已。在国家命运的转折关头，从皇帝到大臣、士兵甚至普通百姓，每个人都在用自己的行为表态。在崖山附近一个叫延安村的小村庄旁边，有一座没有碑文的坟墓，与众不同的是，墓的四周，全部是用蚝壳围砌起来的。传说这就是当年的杨太后之墓。杨太后殉国后，匆忙之间，张世杰将她葬在了这里。迫于蒙元的压迫，百姓不敢为她树碑立传，只得用蚝壳为杨太后修建了一座特殊的坟墓。为了怀念这位坚贞不屈的太后，每逢四月初二杨太后诞辰日，四乡八里的百姓都会来这里祭拜，久而久之，已经成为了一种风俗。此外，还有一些忠义之士，冒着天大的危险，将侥幸逃脱的赵氏皇族后代严密保护起来，隐姓埋名，直到蒙元灭亡，他们才恢复本来姓氏，在崖门附近建立了赵氏的皇族村，并将宋代十八位皇帝的灵位永久供奉在村里的祠堂里。

南宋虽然覆没，但输得是这样的悲壮，这样有节烈之气，勇士们面对外族入侵和压迫，拼死抵抗，为争取民族生存、自尊、自卫而英勇献身，义无反顾，闪耀着爱国主义的"崖山精神"，即中华民族精神。崖山精神，春秋大义，鼓舞后人。

"崖山多忠魂，后先照千古。"以文天祥、陆秀夫、张世杰"三忠"为代表的忠臣义士受到历代肯定，任凭沧海桑田，时代更叠，他们永被历史和人民铭记，千古流芳。正如蔡东藩《宋史通俗演义》最后结句诗："一代沧桑洗不尽，幸存三烈尚流芳。"正因为有了他们的精神存在，崖山不仅仅是南宋王朝最后灭亡的遗恨之地，也从来就是人们抒发爱国情怀之地，历代政要、名人墨客、平民百姓临崖凭吊、叹息、兴感、追怀，如今又成为爱国主义教育基地。

回到本文的题目：崖山之后，再无中国，这是一个争议很大的命题。两宋300余年，一直都是重文抑武，在军事上屡受外敌之辱，常被称为"弱宋"。但全面的看待，宋朝在经济、文化、科技、农业、工商业、手工业等诸多方面都达到了中国封建社会的巅峰，其成就超过了之前的隋唐和之后的明清，他是中国历史上唯一一个没有抑制工商业的朝代，并且极力发展对外贸易。虽然不断的纳贡称臣，但国库岁收依然充裕，终宋一世，只爆发过几次小规模的农民起义，这应该是有其原因的。汉文明在宋朝时候，领先世界，富有人文精神，科技发达，也具有抵抗精神，在蒙古横扫欧亚大陆后，独立支撑数十年。蒙古军队占领中国北方时，其种族灭绝手段极为恶劣。几乎每个城市都有屠城记录。蒙古屠杀造成了中国北方人口大量减少，其程度令人触目惊心。在北方有4500万以上登记人口，而在各地屠城以后，还不到700万，而且这个数字一直保存到元末甚至明初。不排除有几百万人口逃到南方，以及死于瘟疫，饥饿的人口，那么也至少屠杀了80%以上，据记载，宋人到中原后发现，中原地区千里无人烟，白骨遍地，井里塞满了死尸而水不可饮。蒙古军队攻占长沙岳麓书院时，数百名书生赤手空拳抗击蒙元铁骑，最后全部壮烈战死，3百多年后，崇祯皇帝为保持气节吊死煤山（天子守国门），无数汉族精英反抗满清的铁骑而英勇就义，但也出现了吴三桂等民族败类，所以可以说中国的精英大部分尽丧蒙元之手。此后汉文明没有超过以前的发展，市民社会的发育，新型商业经济的发展，以及科学技术的创新都被受到极大打击，中国丧失了最好的发展机会。虽然百年后汉人复国成功，但继起的明王朝还是受到蛮族很大影响，汉人在遭遇北方骑马民族的重创后，开始变得保守，此后的数百年，面对外侮，大多数的汉人精神麻木苟且。

中国文明垂世而独立，可以说是除西方基督教文明外最大的原创性文明，在游牧民族的入侵和打击下，在南宋末年，崖山之战后，整体性亡于蒙元，我们文明的发展的积累被破坏，可以说，崖山之后，已无中国。

我时常想，古中华遗风，究竟会有何等的团结与彪悍，连相对柔弱的南宋，都有十万军民自发跳海殉国，这样的气节，何时能再次拥有？中华文明的复兴，需要今人的努力。崖山之役，应写入教科书，告知后人，华夏当有那样的气节。

我询问过我身边的很多人，他们的文化程度都在大专以上，有个还是硕士，但他们中十有八九不知道崖山之役，至于阎应元抗清他们根本就没听过。悲哀啊！中华民族的悲哀啊！如果那些在崖山之役中为民族事业牺牲和殉难的先祖地下有知，不知会怎么看待我们这些后世的子孙！

每每想起古华夏文明数千年的辉煌，再看看近世纪汉民族的麻木不仁，就感慨万千，暗自流泪，我们什么时候才能够复兴中华啊！虽然不赞成全民穿汉服，但汉服是我们民族文化不可多得的部分，是我们的民族服装，当你看到别的民族穿他们自己的民族服装的时候，你是否想到自己也有美丽的民族服装呢？而且汉服是被当时的满清强权用屠刀强制消灭的，不是因为她不美丽而被我们抛弃的，可以说汉服每一个细节都能体现我们民族文化的内涵，是我们华夏民族文化传承！

还是得继续，如果我们华夏民族文化沉沦了，那我认为离亡国也不远了。大家对此有何看法，共同探讨下

明朝以后无中华？

日本、韩国（朝鲜）、在历史上深受华夏文化的影响，甚至把中国说成是他们的文化母国；朝鲜、日本文明都是受中国文化的哺育，尤其是深受中国"华夷之辨"思想的影响。唐宋时期自不必说，下面以明代阳明心学为例。

王学对近代日本产生巨大影响，高濑武次郎在《日本之阳明学》中说："我邦阳明学之特色，在其有活动的事业家，藤树之孝，蕃山之经论，执离之熏化，中乔之献身事业，乃至维新诸豪杰之震天动地之伟业，殆无一不由王学所赐予。"韩国岭南大学教授崔在穆说"起源于中国的王阳明思想，在明治维新时期的日本产生了一新概念――'阳明学'。"而"一生伏首拜阳明"这一著名诗句即为日本海军大将东乡平八郎的人生信条。

即使在明代，因丰臣秀吉野心膨胀而发动侵朝战争和明军作战时，日本对中华文明仍充满敬意。在西方传教士利马窦与金尼阁著的《利马窦中国札记》第一章中说：当沙勿略在日本的偶像崇拜者中间进行工作时，他注意到每当日本人进行激烈辩论时，他们总是诉之于中国人的权威。这很符合如下的事实，即在涉及宗教崇拜的问题以及关系到行政方面的事情上，他们也乞灵于中国人的智慧。因而情况是，他们通常总是声称，如果基督教确实是真正的宗教，那么聪明的中国人肯定会知道它并且接受它。

[1]而了满清统治中国以后，日本人对满清中国才开始真正鄙夷不屑起来，将其当成蛮夷来看待，即便在满清武力最鼎盛的时候也是如此。甚至一些人认为这时候日本才有资格作为中华文明的继承者，才可以称得上真正的中国。"比如1669年山鹿素行的《中朝事实》、1672年林鹅�的《华夷变态》都已经开始强调，应当把'本朝'当作'中国'，这是'天地自然之势，神神相生，圣皇连绵'"，"使日本形成……真正中华文化对蛮夷清国的观念。""著名的近松门左卫门所编，1715年演出的《国姓爷合战》，则以郑成功为基础想象一个出身日本的唐（明）忠臣，驱除鞑靼恢复国家的故事，更显示了日本对清国的敌意。"

[2]"……而《华夷变态》一书的书名，可能最清楚地表明了他们对中国看法的转变，那是在延宝二年（1674），明清易代不久，林罗山之子林恕为《华夷变态》作序文时说，'崇祯登天，弘光陷虏，唐、鲁才保南隅，而鞑虏横行中原，是华变于夷之态也'，这时的日本，就已经开始把中国视为鞑虏。……但是事实上，在17世纪以后的日本，情况却有很大的变化，他们提出，什么是'中华'或'中国'？他们认为礼俗最文明、秩序最安定、历史最绵延、风土最秀丽、人物最精彩的地方，就是'中国'或'中华'，这'中国'或'中华'并不是地理名词，却仿佛是一个文化象征，它不一定就是那个大清帝国。贺茂真渊（1697～1769）在《国意考》中就说，'他邦（中国）虽有博识之士，观其作为，不及天地之智也，其道可行于世者，几近于无……盖彼邦之学，因其始于人智而多邪理，其意旨亦易得也。而吾皇国之古道，自天地伊始，平坦宽阔，为其不可道破，后人亦难知之矣。吾邦古道，虽言绝迹，室则与天地共存，永无止境也'。因此，当他们越来越不认同清帝国的文化时，他们就不再把现实的'大清帝国'看成是'中华'，而把自己说成是'中国'了，现在的研究者已经多次指出，江户时代的日本儒学者，常常有这样的议论。"

[3]在日本人看来，中华文化其实已经和满清统治之现实中国是两码事情了。宇野哲人（1875～1974）来华这旅被Joshua A Fogel称为最后一个"儒家朝圣之旅"，他长年浸淫中华文化，心仪文化中国，他在《中国文明记》中告诉故乡亲人，初谒曲阜圣庙感动："今夕是何年，得以拜谒圣庙，徘徊圣林，三生之幸也，欢喜不知所措。……啊，彼大成至圣之孔子，近在咫尺之间，虽眠于杂草之下，然其灵魂遍满宇宙，与天地共悠久赫赫以照世道人心'。"宇野哲人分别于1906年和1912年来华。但他看见在满清统治下和统治后的现实中国，却使他的中华梦破碎――宇野哲人"看到的现实中国的残破，从他在塘沽踏上中国土地时，已经一览无遗，他这样形容对中国的第一印象'自塘沽上陆，最初之所见，非常遗憾，绝非愉快之事。夹河而建之民屋，均是极矮陋之泥屋，墙壁自不待说，连屋顶野是泥土所涂。时值冬枯时节，原野一望无际，满目荒凉，难怪先时将塘沽之民屋误为猪圈'。

[4]疑问渐渐地形成了这样的后果：在一些日本文人学者心目中，原本的一个中国变成了两个，一个是存在于他们记忆和想象中的、以汉唐中华为基础的"历史和文化的中国"，一个是在他们面前客观存在、大清帝国所呈现的"现实和政治的中国"。在那个时代，他们虽然还对"历史和文化的中国"怀有敬意，然而却已经开始蔑视这个"现实和政治的中国"。

[5]晚清时日本发动中日战争，占领台湾，后进行全面侵华战争，给中国人民带来沉重灾难。二战后又一直不承认其在侵华战争中犯下的滔天罪行，践踏中国人的民族感情。鲁迅等人在日本的经历说明日本部分民众骨子里对中国人充满深刻的蔑视，并使"支那"一词变成对中国人的贱称……朝鲜类似，朝鲜接受明朝册封，万历年间中国出兵援朝抗倭，更使朝鲜人刻骨铭心，感激不已。直至明亡260多年、再次被日本占领，朝鲜一直在使用明崇祯年号。葛兆光说：在朝鲜李朝的历史记载中，万历皇帝却享有极崇高的声誉。在从万历二十年（1592）到二十六年（1598）的战争中，他派出的军队使朝鲜免于被日本丰臣秀吉所占领，他的举措挽救了朝鲜王朝，因此一直到丁卯（1627）、壬申（1632）朝鲜被迫尊奉清朝之后，朝鲜的朝臣还是自称"神宗皇帝再造之国"和"神宗皇帝所活之民"，并且坚持明朝的纪年，甚至一直到很多年以后，万历皇帝在朝鲜仍然被隆重地祭祀。康熙四十三年（甲申，1704）即朝鲜肃宗三十年三月，那时，清廷统一中国已经六十年，在朝鲜却仍然记得"甲申之岁，回于今日，而又逢三月之朔，今三月十九日，即皇都沦陷之日也"。所以，在这个改朝换代一甲子的时候，朝鲜官方依然要举行祭祀，祭祀逝去的旧王朝，而且国王还特意说，明神宗即万历帝的祭祀"是早晚必行之盛礼"，表示"空望故国，朝宗无地，追天朝不世之殊渥，念列圣服事之至诚，只自呜咽，流涕无从也。昔我仁祖大王当天翻地覆之日，不废焚香望阕之礼，则经今丁皇朝沦陷之日，岂可遣官设祭而已耶"。于是，他三月亲自去祭崇祯，九月特地筑坛以祀大明神宗皇帝，以尽古代诸侯祭天子之仪。很长时间里面，他们仍然坚持用崇祯年号。像雍正四年（1726），那个并没有亲身经历过明清嬗变的申泽（1662～1729）仍然署的是"崇祯纪元后九十九年"，而他去世后给他写祭文的人也仍然用崇祯纪元，说他"生于崇祯纪元后再壬寅，卒于周甲后己酉"。

即使是到了乾隆年间，出使北京的洪大容仍然坦率地告诉探问东国历史的严诚和潘庭筠说，"我国于前明实有再造之恩，兄辈曾知之否？"当不明历史的两人再问时，他动情地说："万历年间倭贼大入东国，八道糜烂，神宗皇帝勤天下之兵，费天下之财，七年然后定，到今二百年，生民之乐利皆神皇之赐也。且末年流贼之变，未必不由此，故我国以为由我而亡，没世哀慕至于今不已。"这种在清帝国治下的人看来是狂悖的括，在朝鲜使者嘴中说出，让两个清朝文人都无言以对。

[6]可以说朝鲜对明朝中国的尊崇仰慕，是出于内心，发于至诚，不会因为明朝中国实力的消长有所变化，甚至在明朝中国已经灭亡以后，这种由衷的感情，依然经久不息。

[7]然而在满清统治中国后，朝鲜对满清帝国的鄙夷态度则非常鲜明，在所谓"康乾盛世"时已格外强烈。有明一代，朝鲜人始终称中华为"天朝"。可清朝定都北京之后，朝鲜君臣在国内却以"清国"、"北国"称之，有时甚至用"胡皇"、"清虏"称呼清朝君臣，不少朝鲜官员以与清朝使节交往为耻

[8]尽管如此，朝鲜人并不把清帝国当作"中华"的正统，仍然对明帝国很依恋，对朝觐胡人皇帝充满了怨气，私下里，他们把清帝国叫做"夷虏"，把清皇帝叫做"胡皇"，朝鲜人对于自己仍然坚持书写明朝的年号，穿着明朝衣冠，特别感到自豪，也对清帝国的汉族人改易服色，顺从了蛮夷衣冠相当蔑视。

[9]在康熙十四年即朝鲜肃宗元年（1675），朝鲜有一个叫金寿弘的人，写了《辩长》、《论庶》二书敬献给国王，本来想讨好，却激起一片嘘声。原因很简单，因为"其贻宋时烈论礼书头书以康熙十四年。……又于祭其祖（金）尚容祝文，欲书康熙（年号），一门惊骇，谓之家贼。尚容殉节于江都，而寿弘独奉清国正朔，至书祝文，其乖戾反常如此"。为什么说他是"乖戾反常"，因为当时朝鲜"凡官文书外，虽下贱，无书清国年号者，（金）寿弘独书之"。……因此，在清帝国时期，朝鲜人从心底里觉得，他们到中国来，就不是来朝觐天子，而只是到燕都来出差，使者们的旅行记名称，也大多由"朝天"改成了"燕行"。他们虽然也恭恭敬敬地来朝贺，但是，心里面却满是怨愤。一个姓韩的使者在康熙五十二年（1713）就说，自己本来不愿意到清国去受辱，但是为了国王之事，实在是不得已，"周旋异域，日见丑类，凌逼饱尽，无量苦痛，磬折腥膻之庭，跪叩犬羊之赐，固已不胜，其大赧矣"，他觉得，这就是因为"中华文物沦落已久"，所以，至今在心底里还是追忆明朝。一直到乾隆、嘉庆年间，虽然离开大明的覆亡已经百余年，但朝鲜关于"大明"的历史记忆却依然如此清晰。……在看透了清帝国的这些民风民俗之后，从一开始就很瞧不起清的朝鲜使者，就更存了轻蔑之心。像1803年出使北京的徐长辅就得出一个结论："清人立国之规，大抵导风俗以禽兽之，率天下之民而愚之……"

[10]再看当时朝鲜人的"明朝之后无中国"之感：明清易代之后，朝鲜人普遍存在着怀念明朝、排斥清朝的"遗民"情怀；这种"遗民"情怀带来的是对现实"中国"(即清王朝)的不认同，对中朝关系的发展演变产生了深远的影响。

[11]一个叫做金钟厚的人，给曾经出使清帝国的洪大容写信，说"所思者在乎明朝后无中国耳，仆非责彼（指中国人）之不思明朝，而责其不思中国耳"。并且相当激烈地锐，朝鲜对于中国，"所贵乎中华者，为其居耶？为其世耶？以居则虏隆亦然矣，以世则吴楚蛮戎鲜有非圣贤之后者矣"，在他们心目中，中国就应当是中华，中华原本是文明的意思，如果中华文明并不在清国，那么，我"宁甘为东夷之贱，而不愿为彼之贵也"。……这个时候的朝鲜人，早已不把清帝国作为"中国"，更不把清帝国看作中华

[12]一个叫韩元震（1682～1751）的朝鲜人，就始终对清人十分鄙夷，他对清儒只推崇吕留良，虽然很客气地推测说，"天方以中国弃这夷狄，宜其儒者之不出也，抑或深山之中有不剃头儒者，得其正宗，著书以俟河清，而世莫得以传之耶"，但是，他显然已经不把中国当作学术的正宗所在了。他说"虽以夷狄之人，而能弃夷狄之行，慕中国之道，服中国之服，言中国之言，行中国之行，则是亦中国而已，人亦将以中国待之，岂可复问其初为夷狄也"，因此，从学术的正宗来看，他觉得，完全可以把朝鲜看成是"中华"，而把清帝国视为"蛮夷"。

[13]依照朝鲜士人的观点，除非"得十万之众，长驱入关，扫清函夏，然后壮观可论"。

[14]他（朝鲜士人闵鼎重）甚至觉得，为了拯救中华文明，朝鲜应当乘清人内乱，辽东空虚，以万兵直捣黄龙，这样便可以逆转天下。闵鼎重的这种想法，在当时很多朝鲜士大夫心目中都有，他们都相信，清国的文化已经坏到无可救药，所以"今天下中华制度，独存于我国"。

[15]正因为在朝鲜人，乃至日本人看来，"明朝后无中国"，所以在满清统治及以后，朝鲜，日本与中国感情也日渐疏离，甚至对中国鄙视厌弃，也就是顺理成章的事情。在他们看来，中国或许土地还存在，名称还存在，但中国的文化实质和文明核心已经从其土地上消失了，或者说即便中国文化还存在，那他们自己也比这块土地上的人更有资格作继承人。

[16]1686年（康熙二十五年），即朝鲜肃宗十二年，朝鲜国王为平息不满满清政权的官员的情绪，说："自古匈奴之入处中华者一，皆不能久长。而今此清虏据中国已过五十年，天理实难推知也。大明积德深厚，其子孙必有中兴之庆。且神宗皇帝于我国有百世不忘之恩，而构于强弱之势，抱羞忍过，以至于今，痛恨可胜言哉！"

[17]表明了朝鲜对恢复中华的期待。但满清覆灭后，他们发现满清在中国依然是歌功颂德的对象，当年朝鲜连书写其年号都觉得是羞辱，"虽下贱"也不为之的康熙，在中国居然被膜拜成了圣主明君，而且还是满清屠刀淫威消失之后；而他们曾经在几百年的时间里，包含感情隆重祭祀的万历皇帝，崇祯皇帝，在中国却被描绘成了病态人渣，曾经真心敬慕的明朝中国，被中国人自己描绘成一片黑暗。在这样的情况下，恐怕连韩国（朝鲜）人自己都要觉得羞愧了，原来他们曾如此尊敬的人，在中国人已经摆脱民族压迫后，还是被丑化的体无完肤。面对中国人这种对待自己历史的极端病态自虐的丑陋，彻底摆脱与中国历史上的干系，似乎对韩国（朝鲜）人来说，也就成了相当合理的选择。发展传承了数千年并使中国领先于世界的中国传统文化，则被中国人打成封建糟粕，和中国落后和挨打的重要原因，一切都是西方的好，到处都存在着极端的西化。凡是西方没有的，中国不可能有。这种缺乏自信的对待自己文化的态度，也使重视传统文化的日韩两国产生鄙夷。于是，韩国成功地将"端午祭"申请为历史文化遗产，将中医并改名为韩医，说孔子是韩国人，把某些中国传统文化精粹据为己有……等等，都不在话下了。

现今反韩似乎是很流行的风潮，网络上对韩国人的憎恶似乎到了不共戴天、势不两立的地步，刻薄、恶毒、尖酸的挖苦和嘲笑似乎已经成了谈论韩国的帖子必不可少的佐料。实际上，这种反韩风潮是极其浅薄的，只能显示出那些自以为中国人的无知和无耻。我们忽视了，今天的韩国女大学生仍在指责我们――"中国人在背叛伟大的先辈"。这是不必多说的。他们也不知道，"礼失求诸野"，日韩对保护部分华夏文明成果，是有一定功劳的。

我们需要明白，中国如不能更好地正视历史，不能彻底批判蒙元、满清政权，不中止对屠夫、刽子手的歌功颂德和对民族英雄地位的弱化，不珍视、保护和发扬自己的传统文化，就不能恢复真正而完全的华夏文明继承者身份，不能使周边国家和民族心悦诚服，不能制止日本、韩国对中国的蔑视和对华夏文明的篡夺。以牺牲文明、忍受耻辱、丧失尊严换取领土，苟活重于道义，怪不得日本人不屑于承认侵略，是骨子里瞧不起现代中国人的愚昧，就如同人类不承认杀猪吃肉是罪恶一般，因为猪是昏弱的物种。中国既然可以认贼作父把蒙元和满清视为正统，又为什么偏偏追究"南京大屠杀"要日本承认对华侵略呢？在这个问题上采取双重标准，我们自己尚且糊涂，又怎能令日本侵略者伏首认罪。

[18]韩国与日本为什么会从历史上对中国尊崇敬慕，转变为近现代的疏离和蔑视甚至侵犯，上面论述可能不完全或不太准确，但这个问题是值得所有中国人深思的

The great stabiliser

from the print edition | Books and arts Deng Xiaoping’s legacy
邓小平的遗产

The great stabiliser
伟大的稳定器

The definitive biography of a diminutive giant of the 20th century
关于一位20世纪小个子伟人的权威传记

Oct 22nd 2011 | from the print edition
079 Books and arts - Deng Xiaoping_s legacy.mp3 (2.23 MB, 下载次数: 29)

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Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China. By Ezra Vogel. Belknap Press; 928 pages; $39.95 and ￡29.95. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk
《邓小平与中国的变革》，作者：傅高义，贝拉纳普出版社,928页，售价39.95美元或29.95英镑，亚马逊有售。

EARLIER this year, as the Arab spring blew through the Middle East, nervous Chinese officials were heard asking Western diplomats and journalists whether they thought (off the record) that China would be next. As it turns out, China has been left unfazed by this mutinous trend for reasons ranging from internet censorship to the swift arrests of dissidents. But one important damper on protest has been in the works for a while: China’s massive economic growth over the past few decades has left enough people satisfied with the system for now. Also, the country does not have a cultish figure like Hosni Mubarak or Colonel Muammar Qaddafi to act as a lightning rod for dissent.

今年早些时候，阿拉伯之春席卷中东之时，惶恐不安的中国官员们曾向西方外交官和记者们提出这样的问题：私底下你们会认为中国是下一个吗？正如事实表明的那样，由于从互联网审查到对异见分子的迅速逮捕等这样那样的原因，中国在反叛潮流中纹丝不动。不过，对抗议起关键性抑制作用的因素却是：在过去数十年间中国可观的经济增长使足够多的人们满足于现行的体制。同样，中国也没有像穆巴拉克或卡扎菲这样搞个人崇拜成为众矢之的的人物。

For this the Chinese Communist Party has to thank a little chain-smoking man who died nearly a decade and a half ago: Deng Xiaoping, the paramount leader from 1978 to 1992. Ezra Vogel’s new biography portrays Deng as not just the maker of modern China, but one of the most substantial figures in modern history.

因此中国共产党应该感谢一位烟不离手的、约于15年前去世的小个子：邓小平。他是中国1978年至1992年的最高领导人。傅高义的新传记不仅将邓描述成现代中国的制造者，还认为邓是现代历史上的重要人物之一。

If Chairman Mao was the architect of an assertive, socialist China, Deng pulled off the even tougher feat of reversing most of what Mao had done and calling it “socialism”. Mr Vogel, a professor emeritus at Harvard University, has written a meticulously researched book that concentrates mainly on the story from the mid-1970s to the 1990s. He could have subtitled the book not the “transformation” but the “stabilisation” of China, as he describes Deng’s impressive calming strategy at home and abroad. Deng placated the near and not-so-near neighbours whom Mao had angered or terrified, continuing his unfinished diplomacy with America (leading to one of history’s most incongruous photo-ops as Deng donned a big cowboy hat), and mending bridges with the Soviet Union. A messy war with Vietnam in 1979 was the exception that proved the rule of avoiding military confrontation.

如果说毛主席是一个自信的社会主义中国的缔造者，那么邓小平胜利地完成了更为艰难的任务：彻底改变许多毛已经做下的并称之为“社会主义”的事情。哈佛大学荣誉教授傅高义撰写了一本精心研究的书，集中反映了上世纪中国70年代到90年代的历史。正如他描述邓在国内外让人印象深刻的冷静战略一样，他本可以将这本书的副标题命名为中国的“稳定”，而非中国的“转变”。邓安抚了被毛激怒的或恐吓的远远近近的国家，继续推行毛未完成的对美外交（于是有了那张史上最不协调的照片——邓戴上了一顶硕大的牛仔帽），修复与苏联的关系——1979年那场与越南的棘手战争是避免军事对抗规定的例外。

On the domestic front, Deng established free-trade zones, dismantled collective farms and wooed foreign capital. This represented a breathtaking ideological reversal, which Deng characterised pragmatically, because the party had no money to spare: “We will give you a policy that allows you to charge ahead and cut through your own difficult road.” And in the aftermath of the Beijing spring of 1989, when conservatives in the leadership tried to chill the pace of reform, Deng struck out by taking a “vacation” in China’s free-trade zones. His aim was to kick-start the economic growth that was heading toward double digits by the time he died in 1997. He missed by a few months the handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China, which he had negotiated, and which burnished his nationalist credentials.

在中国第一线城市，邓小平建立了自由贸易区，拆除了人民公社、并寻求外资注入。这表明意识形态突破性地转变为邓小平特色的务实主义。因为共产党拿不出钱，“我们将给你们一个政策，允许你们冲上前去披荆斩棘。”1989年北京之春以后，当领导层的保守派们试图给改革步伐泼冷水时，邓走出北京在中国的自由贸易区“度假”。他的目的在于为中国经济在1997年他去世时以两位数增长提供初始动力。他错过了数月之后香港从英国回到中国怀抱的交接，此前的谈判是他完成的，他民族主义者的形象也因此更为深入人心。

Deng also dismantled the cult of leadership that had culminated in Mao’s Cultural Revolution. Ironically, he used his own strength of personality to diminish the importance of a charismatic leader. His successor, Jiang Zemin, was chosen for his technocratic skills and ability to compromise, not for his charm. Deng’s work habits helped manage this transition from Maoist political culture. His regular morning schedule was breakfast at 8am, followed by assiduous reading of ministerial reports, 15 domestic newspapers and a range of (translated) foreign press materials. The quest for total knowledge, along with his own revolutionary credentials, enabled him to outmanoeuvre colleagues who wanted to preserve their own fiefdoms within the leadership. Deng initiated China’s system of regular political succession, which is expected to see another transition of power in October next year.

邓小平同样废除了在毛的文化大革命中孕育出的领袖崇拜。讽刺的是，他正是用个人魅力来消解超凡魅力领导的重要性的。之所以选江泽民为邓的继任者，不是因其个人魅力，而是他技术治国的技巧和妥协的能力。邓的工作习惯有助于完成这种从毛时代政治文化的过渡。通常他上午的计划是8点钟吃早餐，然后认真地阅读部长报告、15份国内报纸和一系列翻译过的国外媒体材料。与那些只想保持领导地位的同事相比，他对知识的探求，以及自身的革命资历都让他略高一筹。邓开始了中国通常的政治交接体制，明年10月会见证另外一次权力过渡。

Mr Vogel knows China’s elites extremely well, not least because of his years as an intelligence officer in East Asia for the Clinton administration. This book is bolstered by insider knowledge and outstanding sources, such as interviews with Deng’s interpreters. But this vantage tends to give Deng the benefit of the doubt, and the author works hard to diminish the stain on his reputation left by the notorious killings in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Mr Vogel points out that other developing economies such as South Korea engaged in state violence of a comparable scale at the time.

傅高义对中国的精英们相当了解，这主要是因为他曾担任克林顿当局东亚情报官员数年。这本书里还有许多内情和良好的信息来源，如对邓的翻译的采访等。不过这种优势似乎表明邓是无辜的。作者在消除1989年天安门事件中邓留下的污点上下了很大的功夫。傅高义指出，其他的发展中经济体如韩国在同一时期实施了同样规模的国家暴力。

Although Deng commendably brought stability to China, violence was central to his formation. As Roderick Macfarquhar and Michael Schoenhals (a former Harvard colleague of Mr Vogel’s) have shown in their epic book “Mao’s Last Revolution”, Deng was responsible for purges in the later years of the Cultural Revolution that matched the Gang of Four for brutality. In 1975 he ordered the army to crack down on a Muslim village in Yunnan province, an action which resulted in 1,600 deaths including those of 300 children. Deng’s response to the student and worker protests 14 years later was hardly out of character.

尽管邓值得赞赏地给中国带来了稳定，但在其统治占据中心位置的是暴力。正如罗德里克・麦克法夸尔和沈迈克（傅高义在哈佛大学的前同事）在他们史诗般的书籍《毛最后的革命》中指出的那样，邓应该对文革后期的清洗负责，在残忍方面与四人帮比毫不逊色。1975年，他下令军队镇压云南一个穆斯林村庄，在行动中导致1600人死亡，其中300个是孩童。邓在十四年后对学生和工人抗议的反应实是性格使然。

Much of this book contains previously unheard and highly indiscreet quotations. For example, Deng thought Mikhail Gorbachev was an “idiot”, according to one of his sons. So this tome is unlikely to be published in China anytime soon. Still, the manuscript was read by Chinese political insiders for accuracy, making this the definitive account of Deng in any language. Mr Vogel eloquently makes the case for Deng’s crucial role in China’s transformation from an impoverished and brutalised country into an economic and political superpower. Three and a half decades after Mao’s death, the next generation of Chinese will have no personal memory of the little man from Guang’an County in Sichuan province. All the same, they will be Deng Xiaoping’s children.

该书含有大量此前闻所未闻且用语极不谨慎的（邓）之谈话引文。举例来说，根据邓一个儿子的说法，邓认为戈尔巴乔夫是个“白痴”。所以这部大书不大可能很快就能在中国出版。尽管如此，为精确起见，这部手稿还是经过中国政治圈内人士的阅读，使在任何语言中这都是对邓话语的权威叙述。傅高义极具说服力地举例说明了邓在中国从贫穷残酷统治之国向政治经济大国转变中的所扮演的关键角色。在毛死后35年，中国的下一代们并没有关于这个来自四川广安县的小个子的个人记忆。尽管如此，他们依旧是邓的子孙。

from the print edition | Books and arts

Maoists and Wall Street

Maoists and Wall Street
毛派分子和华尔街

Long march, longer memories
长征，久远的记忆

Maybe the revolution is around the corner after all
或许最后革命即将来临

Oct 22nd 2011 | LUOYANG, CHINA | from the print edition
 
NODDING his head towards a picture of Mao Zedong hanging from a large ornamental rock, an elderly man declares loudly: "This is our Wall Street". A group of greybeards, some sporting Mao badges, murmur in assent. Public displays of dissent generally fare poorly in China. But on Zhouwangcheng Square, in the central city of Luoyang, the "big rock", as locals affectionately call it, has been tolerated as a meeting point for former workers in Luoyang's state-owned enterprises. Perhaps because they are advocating a return to Communism's roots rather than its overthrow, Mao-lovers, sometimes numbering several hundred, are able to gather and bemoan China's slide into the abyss of capitalism.

一位长者朝一块巨大的观赏性岩石上的毛泽东画像点了点头，大声宣布道："这里就是我们的华尔街"。一群老人――其中一些自豪地佩戴着毛泽东像章――轻声表示赞同。总体而言，在中国公开表示异议相当困难。但在洛阳市中心的周王城广场，这个被当地人亲切地称为"大石头"的地方已被容许作为洛阳国企前工人们的集合点。可能是因为他们这些人提倡回归共产主义的本源而非颠覆它，这些有时数以百计的毛派分子能够聚集、哀叹中国坠入资本主义的深渊。

A foreign visitor is quickly surrounded by bitter Maoists (one offering a badge of the Great Helmsman as a token of welcome). They raucously complain about China's growing gap between rich and poor and its "bubble" economy. The watchful eyes of people suspected to be plainclothes police, and the towering presence of Luoyang's futuristic police headquarters at the far end of the square, seem not to inhibit them. A man laments that in China people are "not allowed" to stage protests on the lines of those in New York and elsewhere.

一位外国游客迅速被满面愁容的毛派分子包围（一人拿出伟大舵手的像章表示欢迎）。他们粗声抱怨中国不断加剧的贫富差距和"泡沫"经济。有人睁大警惕的双眼，这极有可能是便衣警察。广场远端高耸入云的是洛阳市未来派公安局，似乎并没有禁止他们的活动。有人悲叹说中国人"不准"按照纽约或其它地方那样举行抗议。

Now the diehards see common cause with anti-capitalist protesters around the world. On October 8th they put up a large red banner in front of the rock. "Resolutely support the American people's great 'Wall Street revolution'", it said. "We belong to the 99% who will no longer remain silent", said a placard held up by one man, echoing a common slogan of the Wall Street movement's participants. Utopia, a Maoist website in China, published photographs of their protest. The website also said that in Zhengzhou, the nearby capital of Henan Province, several hundred people staged a similar gathering on October 6th in a park. Judging from its photographs, most of them were elderly, too.

现在这些守旧派认为世界范围内反资本主义的抗议者们与他们志同道合。10月8日，他们在岩石前面举起大面红字条幅。上书"坚决支持美国人民伟大的华尔街革命"。有人举起告示牌，上面写着"我们是那些不再保持沉默的99%"，与华尔街运动参与者共同的口号遥相呼应。中国毛派网站乌有之乡发布了抗议的照片。该网站称，10月6日，在附近的河南省会郑州，人们在公园举行了相似的集会。从图片看，参与者大多数也是老人。

Luoyang's Maoists are proud of their activism. Several years ago their complaints, they say, helped save large statues of Mao that stand outside two large state-owned factories in the city. The government, they allege, wanted to remove them to improve a road. Undeterred by the arrests and harassment in recent months of several of their number, their choir still sings paeans to Mao by the rock several times a week. They tie string between trees and peg to it samizdat reports about issues ranging from government corruption to transgenic crops (a particular bête noire). "Revisionists, traitors," fumes an old silver-toothed Maoist about today's officialdom, as a friend tries to calm him down. Luckily for the authorities, China's youth is far more restrained.

洛阳的毛派分子对他们的行动主义颇为自豪。他们说，数年前他们的抗议帮助挽救了两尊洛阳市国有工厂外面的大型毛泽东塑像。他们宣称政府为改善路况想移走塑像。近几个月他们的成员被逮捕和骚扰，他们不为所惧，依然每星期数次在岩石前高唱对毛的赞歌。他们在树间系上绳子，用夹子固定住他们的秘密出版物，议题覆盖政府腐败到转基因作物（特别让人憎恶的一种东西）。一位年长的镶了牙的毛派分子对当今的官场极为愤怒："都是些修正主义份子，叛徒！"，他的朋友试图让他平静下来。对当局来说，值得庆幸的是中国的年轻人们要比老人们克制得多。

from the print edition | International

 

China's patient crusader

China's patient crusader
耐心的中国改革者―单伟建

Weijian Shan is fighting to make Chinese business more normal
单伟建―为改善中国商业氛围而战
May 12th 2005 | from the print edition

          

TENDING pumpkins and hauling bricks in the Gobi desert as a young man, Weijian Shan kept recalling a line from the Chinese poet, Li Bai: "There must be a use for someone like myself." At the time, that did not seem obvious: banished there from Beijing during the Cultural Revolution when he was 15, Mr Shan spent six years in a poor farming village doing hard manual labour with little hope of getting out and no sense of a future.

单伟建喜欢引用李白的一句诗歌："天生我材必有用。"他年轻时在戈壁滩上看过南瓜藤、搬过砖块。不过，在那时候，他的才能并没显露出来。在他十五岁的时候，中国正在进行"文化大革命"，单伟建被从北京下放到戈壁滩。他在一个贫穷的农庄呆了六年，干着繁重的体力活，几乎看不到走出农庄的希望，对未来也没有半点概念。

Today, he has found a use for himself. Now 51, Mr Shan is a managing partner of Newbridge Capital, one of the most successful private-equity firms in Asia, and one of a handful of senior businessmen bringing western capital, ideas and management to the region's firms. While private equity is currently extremely hot in China, deals are risky, because of poor corporate governance and the absence of obvious exit strategies―that is, ways to realise the value of a successful deal. At a minimum, private-equity firms in China should control the board of a firm they buy, above all in banking, where corruption is rife. Last autumn Newbridge won final approval for an unusual―and perhaps one-off―deal, spending $160m on an 18% stake in Shenzhen Development Bank (SDB). This made Newbridge the largest shareholder. Mr Shan's formidable connections helped Newbridge also to gain control over management, a first for a foreign investor in a Chinese bank.

现在，他已经找到了施展自己才华的地方。现年51岁的他，是亚洲著名的私募股权投资公司新桥投资公司（简称"新桥投资"）执行合伙人，他也是为数不多的讲西方资本理念以及管理模式引人亚洲公司的先驱人物之一。当下，私募股权在中国如火如荼，交易风险极高，因为公司监管效力不佳，且无明确地投资退出战略。而这些正是一桩交易取得成功不可或缺的因素。至少，中国的私募股权公司在购买一家公司股权后，应该在该公司董事会中享有控制权，在腐败盛行的银行业中更该如此。去年秋天，新桥投资以1.6亿美元（约合 亿人民币）收购深圳发展银行（简称"深发展"）18%股权的交易最终获批，这是极为罕见的，也可以说是一次性交易。该交易完成后，新桥投资成为深发展最大股东。单伟建利用其不可思议的人际关系，帮助新桥获得了深发展的管理控制权，并使新桥成为第一家控股中资银行的外资机构。

Mao Zedong's purges halted Mr Shan's formal education at the age of 12. He risked punishment by spending evenings in the Gobi in a disused shed, perched on the handle of a spade, reading by kerosene lamplight. Education offered an escape. "Anyone can be lucky or unlucky," he says. "But I would have felt regret if there was an opportunity and I was not prepared." He read everything, from medical books and pesticide manuals to Chinese classics. Using Voice of America radio and an old dictionary, he taught himself English―though his pronunciation was so bad that when he first spoke it no one understood him. The desert taught him not to give up, and to wait. "Once you have experienced hardship―starvation is the worst―you don't think anything is hard anymore," he says. "You learn patience."

单伟建十二岁那年，毛泽东时代展开的政治运动中断了他正常的学业，使他一度失去了接受教育的机会。但他仍然冒着受罚的危险，晚上在戈壁滩一座废弃的小棚里，拄着铁锹，点着煤油灯自学。他说，"每个人都是幸运的，也可以说是不幸的；但是，如果机会来了，而我却没准备好，我会感到遗憾。"他读的书很多，从医学著作、农药说明书到中国典籍，他都读 。他还通过听美国广播、查旧字典自学英语。他刚开始说英语的时候，因为的发音不好，没有人能听懂他在说什么。在戈壁滩的生活教会了他坚持和等待。"在经历困难时，特别是面临饥饿这样的大困难时，你就会认为不会有比饥饿更困难的事了，你学会了有耐心。"他说。

Mr Shan's chance came in 1975. As the Cultural Revolution drew to an end, his work unit lobbied to get him a chance to study English in Beijing. He then moved to America, where he spent 12 years. He gained an MBA, a doctorate in business and a masters in economics; spent several months at the World Bank; taught as a business professor at Wharton in Pennsylvania for six years, where he founded a journal, the China Economic Review; and joined J.P. Morgan, becoming a managing director.

一九七五年，单伟建遇到了机会。随着文革接近尾声，他在工作单位的推荐下有了去北京学习英语的机会。后来，他又去了美国，并在那呆了十二年。在美国，他拿到了工商管理硕士（MBA）学位、经济学硕士学位和商科博士学位。他在世界银行工作了几个月，也在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院做过六年教授。在这期间，他创办了一本杂志―《中国经济评论》，后来他加入了摩根大通，并成为其董事总经理。

The bank sent him to Hong Kong, where he was snapped up by Newbridge, a spin-off from Texas Pacific Group, a big American private-equity firm that was just launching in the region. Buying and restructuring firms hit by Asia's economic crisis was then a popular strategy. One such deal, for Korea First Bank, which Newbridge bought from South Korea's government in 1999 and sold to Standard Chartered in January 2005 for $3.3 billion, almost quadrupling its money, put Newbridge on the map.
后来，他被摩根大通派驻香港。在港期间，他被美国私募股权公司德州太平洋集团（简称"ＴＰＧ"）旗下新桥投资公司看中。当时，ＴＰＧ刚刚在亚洲设立办事处。当时，购买和重组受亚洲金融危机打击的公司是一种很盛行的投资策略。一九九九年，新桥投资从韩国政府手中收购了韩国第一银行，之后又于二零零五年一月以三十三亿美元出售给渣打银行。该交易获利接近原始投资额的四倍，这也使新桥投资一战成名。

That experience, plus the backing secured by Mr Shan from China's top policymakers, gave the firm the confidence to bid for SDB, at a time when few outside investors were willing to touch a Chinese bank, riddled with bad loans and corruption. The takeover required all of Mr Shan's patience. There was a competing bid from Taiwan to see off, and the Shenzhen city-owned sellers kept changing their minds. All told, the process took over two years. Newbridge, fed up, nearly walked away. Mr Shan alone was willing to wait, but "if I had wanted to give up, nobody would have disagreed with me."

以上这些经历，再加上单伟建拥有的中国高层领导者关系背景，使新桥投资有信心为竞购深发展一搏。那时，很少有外国投资者愿意染指一家中国银行，因为中国银行坏账成堆、腐败成风。这项收购案，显示出了单伟建的耐心。当时，新桥还面临台湾一家对手的竞争，而深发展这个由深圳市政府所有的卖家也一直举棋不定。整个收购过程持续了两年多。新桥投资可谓是人困马乏，交易几近取消。只有单伟建一直在等待，他说，"如果我选择放弃，没有人会有意见。"

Mr Shan's patient determination―something his opponents find irritating―may say as much about his principles as his business ambition. In the rabidly anti-capitalist China in which he grew up, nobody aspired to a career in industry. "I never thought I would become a vulgar businessman," he laughs, rueing that in China wealth is becoming a yardstick of achievement and respect. Even so, his understanding of how modern China has evolved, from Confucianism to communism and now increasingly to capitalism, allows him to operate comfortably within it.

单伟建的耐心正是他的竞争对手们感到苦恼的东西，也许那更可能是他做生意的原则。他在坚决反对资本主义的中国长大，没有人想在行业里有所发展。他笑着说，"我从来没有想过我会成为一个庸俗的商人"。同时，他对财富正在成为评判中国人成功的尺码而遗憾。不过，他了解现代中国取得的进步。从孔孟之道到社会主义，再到今天的日益资本主义化，这也使得他能在此间如鱼得水。

The wisdom of the West

西方智慧

It has also led him to believe that he can make it work better, by introducing what he has learned in the West. For a Chinese businessman, Mr Shan is unusually outspoken, and sometimes prickly, as he seeks to change China's business culture by writing newspaper editorials, giving speeches and serving as an independent board director. On the board of Baosteel, a big steel firm, he successfully objected to its purchase of a finance operation from its unlisted parent, arguing that this had nothing to do with steelmaking. On the board of China Unicom, he questioned Beijing's decision to shuffle managers between the country's telecoms firms. On the board of Bank of China's Hong Kong arm, he played a crucial part in launching an independent inquiry after a scandal in 2004 over questionable loans.

单伟建相信，利用他在西方学到的东西，他能做的更好。和常见的中国商人不同，他常常直言不讳，有时可以说是言辞尖锐。为了改变中国的商业文化，他写新闻报道，发表演讲，在一些公司做独立董事。单伟建在中国大型钢铁公司宝钢担任董事时，他有效地反对了宝钢收购一家未上市的母公司的财务运营机构的提案。他指出，宝钢的这一举措与炼钢根本没有关系。担任中国联通公司董事时，他质疑中国政府调整中国电信企业领导人这一做法的合理性。出任中银香港董事期间，他在二零零四年香港问题贷款丑闻发生后成立的独立质询机构中扮演了重要角色。

Mr Shan's biggest concern now is China's current bank-financed investment binge, which he says is leading to huge capacity increases and profitless growth. The solution, he argues, is to clean up the banks and to introduce proper incentives for loan officers, weaning them off lending based on relationships not returns. That is what Newbridge did at Korea First, writing off bad debts, cutting risky loans to big firms and building a more profitable business in mortgages and credit cards. Using that model, a successful turnaround of SDB, now a weak second-tier lender, would create a much-needed oasis of rigour inside China's otherwise wretched banking system. Can it be done? Mr Shan understands the risks better than most―and, clearly, life has given him plenty of reasons to be hopeful.

现在,单伟建最担心的问题是，中国现行的无节制的银行金融投资行为导致资本疯长，却无利可图。他指出，解决这一问题的方法是整顿银行体系，向贷款机构引入合适的刺激机制，根除靠关系贷而不还的现象。新桥在收购韩国第一银行时撇消坏账、去除了向大企业提供的高风险贷款，并转而发展利润率更高的抵押贷款和信用卡业务。通过这一模式，目前还是二级贷款机构的深发展或将成功转型，为中国银行业注入新的活力，以避免产生糟糕的银行系统。这些举措是否能奏效呢？单伟建有着比别人更强的风险意识，也因为如此，生活总是让他有足够的理由充满希望。

 

The Trouble at Fairholme

By BILL ALPERT | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The once highflying mutual fund is down sharply this year, and one of its top executives has abruptly left the firm. Is there a connection?

Bruce R. Berkowitz had plenty of admirers while his Fairholme Fund was tripling investors' money over the past decade. Financial publications like this one encouraged readers to put their savings into the hands of the now 53-year-old value investor who affects the plain-spoken ways of Warren Buffett and beat the market by an average of 14% in each of the past 10 years. But this year, the mutual fund (ticker: FAIRX) is down 27%, while the broad market has been roughly flat.

Suddenly, Berkowitz has plenty of doubters. Redemptions and negative returns have cut Fairholme's assets in half since last year, to about $9 billion.

Folks with firsthand knowledge of Berkowitz wonder if the brilliant investor—whom Morningstar last year dubbed Manager of the Decade for his U.S. stockpicking–has lost his way. Says a Wall Streeter familiar with Berkowitz: "The way he's making money—and who he's doing it with—is not how the 10-year track record was created."

 

Close

Josh Ritchie for Barron's

Bruce Berkowitz liked Charles Fernandez so much that he lent him money to buy a $9 million house next to his, and then forgave the loan.

As for "who," that would be Charles M. Fernandez, whom Berkowitz abruptly made director, president and co-manager of Fairholme in 2008. Fairholme's long-time team of portfolio professionals were effectively displaced by the now 49-year-old Fernandez, who had no apparent experience in investment management. Berkowitz even installed Fernandez in the mansion next door to his own, in the tony Tahiti Beach Island enclave of Coral Gables, Fla., and then forgave Fernandez's $9 million mortgage. But something seems to have changed in their relationship.

A DAY AFTER Barron's asked Fairholme about him, Fernandez resigned "for personal reasons," according to a curt filing made Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. "References to Mr. Fernandez in the prospectus," said the notice, "are hereby deleted."

Whether Fernandez's co-management of Fairholme contributed to its current predicament isn't clear. But mutual-fund veterans do say that the concentration of Fairholme's stock holdings has been unprecedented, even in comparison with other "focused" funds, such as Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) or Ken Heebner's CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX). As Fairholme doubled down on its bets on unpopular shares like American International Group (AIG) and St. Joe (JOE), its most recent SEC filings (from May and June) showed cash levels near historical lows and some two-thirds of its holdings piled high in stocks including Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM). To handle any redemptions, SEC rules discourage mutual funds from putting more than 15% of their assets in "illiquid" securities—those that would take over a week to sell.

Fairholme's portfolio has surely changed since its latest holdings report to the SEC on June 30—the September holdings report, due this week, may show cash raised from its recent sale of shares in Regions Financial (RF)—but the June snapshot revealed positions that would take months to unwind without overwhelming the stocks' daily volume and crushing the share prices. One expert on large trades' price impact, the Santa Fe Institute economist Doyne Farmer, says that traders who don't want to drastically move a stock's price try to keep their own trading below 20% of a day's volume. The table below shows the hypothetical number of days required to exit Fairholme's least liquid positions at that rate.

Fairholme's "Long" Squeeze

If Fairholme had to sell its big holdings, but wanted to keep the sales under 20% of the stocks' usual daily volume, some of its positions could take months to unwind.

Company/Ticker	Recent Price	52-Week Range ($)	June 30 Holdings (mil shares)	Value at Recent Prices (mil)	% of Equity Holdings	Days Needed to Sell**
St Joe Co/JOE	$14.51	14.52-30.34	27	$386	4.2%	227.5
Sears Hldgs /SHLD	73.44	51.14-94.79	16	1,203	9.1	148.7
Brookfield Asset /BAM	27.43	24.42-34.23	27	748	7.0	109.2
Leucadia Natl Gp/LUK	25.69	20.81-39.14	19	481	4.9	88.1
MBIA/MBI	8.15	5.99-14.96	47	382	3.2	76.8
American Intl Group /AIG	22.91	19.18-52.67	103	2,363	23.4	66.9
China Pacific Ins/2601 HK*	2.77	2.59-4.55	148	410	4.1	50.8
CIT Group/CIT	34.13	27.68-49.57	19	663	6.7	47.1
Winthrop Realty/FUR	8.46	8.05-13.84	1	11	0.1	40.0
AIA Group Limited/1299 HK*	2.98	2.54-3.79	302	901	7.1	37.2
*Hong Kong stock holdings, as of May 31, 2011 **Based on 20% of daily volume

IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES from Barron's, all Berkowitz would say about Fernandez, who also resigned as vice chairman of the St. Joe board chaired by Berkowitz, was that Fairholme wishes him the best. We were unable to reach Fernandez. But he seems to have been an unlikely choice to replace Fairholme's veteran investment pros. A biography in Fairholme's prospectus told of Fernandez's 23 years of management experience at companies like Big City Radio and IVAX (IVD), the generic drug maker founded by billionaire Phillip Frost. But the bio doesn't mention a scandal that sent a Florida Assembly speaker to jail for taking secret payments from a political-action committee Fernandez headed. Or that two public companies, Continucare and Big City Radio, lost a combined $150 million with Fernandez as their chief executive.

By many accounts, Berkowitz and Fernandez have been inseparable the past few years. Fernandez is married to Berkowitz's cousin, and the Coral Gables neighbors have summered together in Bridgehampton, N.Y. In a June interview, Berkowitz described Fernandez as an alter ego, like Buffett's famous associate, Charlie Munger. "I did learn from Warren Buffett," quipped Berkowitz, "that everybody needs a Charlie."

The story of Bruce Berkowitz and Fairholme is legendary.Berkowitz has said that in high school, he ran his father's small-time bookmaking operation for a couple of months, while his dad recovered from a heart attack. He went on to become a successful stockbroker at Salomon and then Lehman Brothers, doing his own research and betting on companies, like Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) and Leucadia National (LUK), that were run by great investors. His clients made a sevenfold return on Wells Fargo (WFC) in the early 1990s, when other people were wrongly betting that the California bank was going bust. Then as the dot.com frenzy peaked in 1999, Berkowitz launched the Fairholme mutual fund with the out-of-favor strategy of value investing.

Before long, Fairholme was handily beating the market with big bets on insurers like Markel (MKL) and White Mountains Insurance (WTM), not to mention large investments in Berkshire and Leucadia. Working with Berkowitz at his Short Hills, N.J., office was a small investment team lead by Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner. Outside consultants also supplied industry expertise when Fairholme took contrarian plunges on companies like WilTel Communications and MCI. Although Berkowitz owned the firm that ran Fairholme, Trauner and Pitkowsky joined him on media interviews. All three drafted and signed letters sent to Fairholme investors.

After a couple of years in which the fund gained better than 20%, investors started pouring money into it. Assets under management hit $1.4 billion in 2005, then almost $6.5 billion in 2007. Berkowitz's firm got an advisory fee of 1% of assets, which came to more than $50 million in 2007. Add the gains on Berkowitz's own stake in Fairholme's funds–Fairholme management held over $300 million worth as of March 2011—and that's pretty good money.

In late 2006, Berkowitz moved to Miami to escape Wall Street's groupthink and New Jersey's taxes. Fernandez and Berkowitz met when Fernandez married a cousin of Berkowitz named Lauren Sturges in July 2007. Her father, Robert Sturges, had run the gaming business of cruise-ship operator Carnival (CCL) and owned a piece of the Miami Heat basketball team with Fernandez's uncle. After Fernandez joined Fairholme in November 2007, fractures began developing in what had been a tight-knit group. Neither Trauner nor Pitkowsky will discuss what happened; they eventually left Fairholme and started the GoodHaven Fund (GOODX).

But a civil suit filed last year in a Miami state court by a fired analyst might fill in some blanks. The plaintiff, David Ahl, contends that Fairholme was a hostile working environment. He recounts how he came to Fairholme as a telecom-industry consultant in 2003 and then a full-time analyst in 2006. When Berkowitz told his portfolio team that they needed to join him in Florida, Ahl bought a $3 million condo in Coconut Grove in September 2007. A few months later, says Ahl, Berkowitz installed Fernandez as boss of Fairholme's portfolio management team, overseeing Ahl, Pitkowsky and Trauner. Fernandez also brought in new directors and officers to Fairholme, such as Treasurer Paul R. Thomson, who had worked for Fernandez at the unprofitable Big City Radio. Fairholme has denied Ahl's allegations.

Yamila Lomba for Barron''s

Fernandez is shown with his wife, Lauren, Berkowitz's cousin.

Charlie Fernandez seemed as though he was connected to everyone in Miami—he'd married four times by the age of 45—and his network included South Florida mayors, police chiefs and pension-fund trustees. Acquaintances note that, at the time, Berkowitz had just lost a key mentor with the death of Fairholme director Joel Uchenick. Fernandez and Berkowitz hit it off. Berkowitz lent Fernandez the money to buy the mansion next door, and then forgave the mortgage. They visited Fernandez's favorite after-hours spots, in ponytails and guayabera shirts.

In his lawsuit, David Ahl complains that Fernandez had no experience in securities analysis or portfolio management. Public records show that Fernandez had plenty of experience in business and politics, however. At hearings of New Jersey's Casino Control Commission in 1999, Bally Entertainment magnate Arthur Goldberg had to explain why his firm shouldn't lose its Atlantic City license after funneling secret payments to Florida Assembly Speaker Bolley "Bo" Johnson through a political action committee.

The PAC was headed by Fernandez, who was running Bally's unsuccessful campaign to legalize casinos in Florida. Goldberg and Fernandez testified to the casino commission about Atlantic City junkets and payments they arranged for Florida politicos. State prosecutors concluded that the payments didn't constitute bribery under Florida law. Fernandez and his Bally associates weren't charged with any offense. But a federal prosecution sent Johnson and his wife to prison for failing to report the Bally payments on their tax return.

Fernandez got his start in business working for his uncle Amancio Suarez, a real-estate developer who owned two Spanish-language radio stations in South Florida. They sold out to a broadcasting chain called Heftel in 1995 for about $20 million.

Fernandez next started the health-care company Continucare, with the backing of Miami entrepreneur Phil Frost and George Soros' brother Robert. Continucare spent $45 million acquiring South Florida medical practices, but as the roll-up failed to generate cash profits, its stock fell from 13 bucks to 19 cents. Fernandez stepped down as CEO in 1999.

He soon was CEO of Big City Radio, a radio chain that he converted to a Spanish-language format. Over the next three years, it lost $90 million and its stock slid from five bucks to 10 cents. After Big City sold its radio stations for the benefit of creditors in 2003, Fernandez spent the next few years running an addiction-treatment hospital and serving as a director of Phil Frost's IVAX.

After arriving at Fairholme, says Ahl's complaint, Fernandez urged Berkowitz to invest in health-care outfits like WellCare (WCG). He also became a key player in Fairholme's fight to control St. Joe, the owner of 600,000 acres of Florida panhandle property whose value has been the subject of a fierce debate between Berkowitz (who thinks it's high) and hedge-fund manager David Einhorn (who doesn't). Since January 2011, St. Joe shares have fallen from about $30 to $15. Until last week, Fernandez was co-manager of all three Fairholme funds, including Fairholme Focused (FOCIX) and Fairholme Allocation (FAAFX), which are also down substantially this year.

Berkowitz, of course, is Fairholme's ultimate decision maker. In the past, he has extolled Fernandez's business savvy. And he has praised Fernandez for bringing in last year's $2 billion gain on bond investments in AmeriCredit and General Growth Properties (GGP). In fact, Berkowitz has said, Fernandez made more money for Fairholme investors than had all previous employees, combined.

Fernandez probably did fine for himself, too. Barely a year after his arrival, Pitkowsky and Trauner departed from Fairholme. Fernandez seems to have been the only investment employee remaining to claim what David Ahl's lawsuit says was a bonus pool of 15% of the advisory firm's profits—probably more than $10 million in 2008.

Pitkowsky and Trauner declined to discuss Fairholme. And Barron's was unable to obtain comment from Ahl or his attorney.

Will Berkowitz's big bets work out? Maybe. Or maybe not. But one thing is clear: His travels with Charlie have ended.

The Trouble at Fairholme

By BILL ALPERT | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The once highflying mutual fund is down sharply this year, and one of its top executives has abruptly left the firm. Is there a connection?

 

Bruce R. Berkowitz had plenty of admirers while his Fairholme Fund was tripling investors' money over the past decade. Financial publications like this one encouraged readers to put their savings into the hands of the now 53-year-old value investor who affects the plain-spoken ways of Warren Buffett and beat the market by an average of 14% in each of the past 10 years. But this year, the mutual fund (ticker: FAIRX) is down 27%, while the broad market has been roughly flat.

Suddenly, Berkowitz has plenty of doubters. Redemptions and negative returns have cut Fairholme's assets in half since last year, to about $9 billion.

Folks with firsthand knowledge of Berkowitz wonder if the brilliant investor―whom Morningstar last year dubbed Manager of the Decade for his U.S. stockpicking�has lost his way. Says a Wall Streeter familiar with Berkowitz: "The way he's making money―and who he's doing it with―is not how the 10-year track record was created."

 

Close

Josh Ritchie for Barron's

Bruce Berkowitz liked Charles Fernandez so much that he lent him money to buy a $9 million house next to his, and then forgave the loan.

As for "who," that would be Charles M. Fernandez, whom Berkowitz abruptly made director, president and co-manager of Fairholme in 2008. Fairholme's long-time team of portfolio professionals were effectively displaced by the now 49-year-old Fernandez, who had no apparent experience in investment management. Berkowitz even installed Fernandez in the mansion next door to his own, in the tony Tahiti Beach Island enclave of Coral Gables, Fla., and then forgave Fernandez's $9 million mortgage. But something seems to have changed in their relationship.

A DAY AFTER Barron's asked Fairholme about him, Fernandez resigned "for personal reasons," according to a curt filing made Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. "References to Mr. Fernandez in the prospectus," said the notice, "are hereby deleted."

Whether Fernandez's co-management of Fairholme contributed to its current predicament isn't clear. But mutual-fund veterans do say that the concentration of Fairholme's stock holdings has been unprecedented, even in comparison with other "focused" funds, such as Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) or Ken Heebner's CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX). As Fairholme doubled down on its bets on unpopular shares like American International Group (AIG) and St. Joe (JOE), its most recent SEC filings (from May and June) showed cash levels near historical lows and some two-thirds of its holdings piled high in stocks including Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM). To handle any redemptions, SEC rules discourage mutual funds from putting more than 15% of their assets in "illiquid" securities―those that would take over a week to sell.

Fairholme's portfolio has surely changed since its latest holdings report to the SEC on June 30―the September holdings report, due this week, may show cash raised from its recent sale of shares in Regions Financial (RF)―but the June snapshot revealed positions that would take months to unwind without overwhelming the stocks' daily volume and crushing the share prices. One expert on large trades' price impact, the Santa Fe Institute economist Doyne Farmer, says that traders who don't want to drastically move a stock's price try to keep their own trading below 20% of a day's volume. The table below shows the hypothetical number of days required to exit Fairholme's least liquid positions at that rate.

Fairholme's "Long" Squeeze

If Fairholme had to sell its big holdings, but wanted to keep the sales under 20% of the stocks' usual daily volume, some of its positions could take months to unwind.

Company/Ticker	Recent Price	52-Week Range ($)	June 30 Holdings (mil shares)	Value at Recent Prices (mil)	% of Equity Holdings	Days Needed to Sell**
St Joe Co/JOE	$14.51	14.52-30.34	27	$386	4.2%	227.5
Sears Hldgs /SHLD	73.44	51.14-94.79	16	1,203	9.1	148.7
Brookfield Asset /BAM	27.43	24.42-34.23	27	748	7.0	109.2
Leucadia Natl Gp/LUK	25.69	20.81-39.14	19	481	4.9	88.1
MBIA/MBI	8.15	5.99-14.96	47	382	3.2	76.8
American Intl Group /AIG	22.91	19.18-52.67	103	2,363	23.4	66.9
China Pacific Ins/2601 HK*	2.77	2.59-4.55	148	410	4.1	50.8
CIT Group/CIT	34.13	27.68-49.57	19	663	6.7	47.1
Winthrop Realty/FUR	8.46	8.05-13.84	1	11	0.1	40.0
AIA Group Limited/1299 HK*	2.98	2.54-3.79	302	901	7.1	37.2
*Hong Kong stock holdings, as of May 31, 2011 **Based on 20% of daily volume

IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES from Barron's, all Berkowitz would say about Fernandez, who also resigned as vice chairman of the St. Joe board chaired by Berkowitz, was that Fairholme wishes him the best. We were unable to reach Fernandez. But he seems to have been an unlikely choice to replace Fairholme's veteran investment pros. A biography in Fairholme's prospectus told of Fernandez's 23 years of management experience at companies like Big City Radio and IVAX (IVD), the generic drug maker founded by billionaire Phillip Frost. But the bio doesn't mention a scandal that sent a Florida Assembly speaker to jail for taking secret payments from a political-action committee Fernandez headed. Or that two public companies, Continucare and Big City Radio, lost a combined $150 million with Fernandez as their chief executive.

By many accounts, Berkowitz and Fernandez have been inseparable the past few years. Fernandez is married to Berkowitz's cousin, and the Coral Gables neighbors have summered together in Bridgehampton, N.Y. In a June interview, Berkowitz described Fernandez as an alter ego, like Buffett's famous associate, Charlie Munger. "I did learn from Warren Buffett," quipped Berkowitz, "that everybody needs a Charlie."

The story of Bruce Berkowitz and Fairholme is legendary.Berkowitz has said that in high school, he ran his father's small-time bookmaking operation for a couple of months, while his dad recovered from a heart attack. He went on to become a successful stockbroker at Salomon and then Lehman Brothers, doing his own research and betting on companies, like Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) and Leucadia National (LUK), that were run by great investors. His clients made a sevenfold return on Wells Fargo (WFC) in the early 1990s, when other people were wrongly betting that the California bank was going bust. Then as the dot.com frenzy peaked in 1999, Berkowitz launched the Fairholme mutual fund with the out-of-favor strategy of value investing.

Before long, Fairholme was handily beating the market with big bets on insurers like Markel (MKL) and White Mountains Insurance (WTM), not to mention large investments in Berkshire and Leucadia. Working with Berkowitz at his Short Hills, N.J., office was a small investment team lead by Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner. Outside consultants also supplied industry expertise when Fairholme took contrarian plunges on companies like WilTel Communications and MCI. Although Berkowitz owned the firm that ran Fairholme, Trauner and Pitkowsky joined him on media interviews. All three drafted and signed letters sent to Fairholme investors.

After a couple of years in which the fund gained better than 20%, investors started pouring money into it. Assets under management hit $1.4 billion in 2005, then almost $6.5 billion in 2007. Berkowitz's firm got an advisory fee of 1% of assets, which came to more than $50 million in 2007. Add the gains on Berkowitz's own stake in Fairholme's funds�Fairholme management held over $300 million worth as of March 2011―and that's pretty good money.

In late 2006, Berkowitz moved to Miami to escape Wall Street's groupthink and New Jersey's taxes. Fernandez and Berkowitz met when Fernandez married a cousin of Berkowitz named Lauren Sturges in July 2007. Her father, Robert Sturges, had run the gaming business of cruise-ship operator Carnival (CCL) and owned a piece of the Miami Heat basketball team with Fernandez's uncle. After Fernandez joined Fairholme in November 2007, fractures began developing in what had been a tight-knit group. Neither Trauner nor Pitkowsky will discuss what happened; they eventually left Fairholme and started the GoodHaven Fund (GOODX).

But a civil suit filed last year in a Miami state court by a fired analyst might fill in some blanks. The plaintiff, David Ahl, contends that Fairholme was a hostile working environment. He recounts how he came to Fairholme as a telecom-industry consultant in 2003 and then a full-time analyst in 2006. When Berkowitz told his portfolio team that they needed to join him in Florida, Ahl bought a $3 million condo in Coconut Grove in September 2007. A few months later, says Ahl, Berkowitz installed Fernandez as boss of Fairholme's portfolio management team, overseeing Ahl, Pitkowsky and Trauner. Fernandez also brought in new directors and officers to Fairholme, such as Treasurer Paul R. Thomson, who had worked for Fernandez at the unprofitable Big City Radio. Fairholme has denied Ahl's allegations.

Yamila Lomba for Barron''s

Fernandez is shown with his wife, Lauren, Berkowitz's cousin.

Charlie Fernandez seemed as though he was connected to everyone in Miami―he'd married four times by the age of 45―and his network included South Florida mayors, police chiefs and pension-fund trustees. Acquaintances note that, at the time, Berkowitz had just lost a key mentor with the death of Fairholme director Joel Uchenick. Fernandez and Berkowitz hit it off. Berkowitz lent Fernandez the money to buy the mansion next door, and then forgave the mortgage. They visited Fernandez's favorite after-hours spots, in ponytails and guayabera shirts.

In his lawsuit, David Ahl complains that Fernandez had no experience in securities analysis or portfolio management. Public records show that Fernandez had plenty of experience in business and politics, however. At hearings of New Jersey's Casino Control Commission in 1999, Bally Entertainment magnate Arthur Goldberg had to explain why his firm shouldn't lose its Atlantic City license after funneling secret payments to Florida Assembly Speaker Bolley "Bo" Johnson through a political action committee.

The PAC was headed by Fernandez, who was running Bally's unsuccessful campaign to legalize casinos in Florida. Goldberg and Fernandez testified to the casino commission about Atlantic City junkets and payments they arranged for Florida politicos. State prosecutors concluded that the payments didn't constitute bribery under Florida law. Fernandez and his Bally associates weren't charged with any offense. But a federal prosecution sent Johnson and his wife to prison for failing to report the Bally payments on their tax return.

Fernandez got his start in business working for his uncle Amancio Suarez, a real-estate developer who owned two Spanish-language radio stations in South Florida. They sold out to a broadcasting chain called Heftel in 1995 for about $20 million.

Fernandez next started the health-care company Continucare, with the backing of Miami entrepreneur Phil Frost and George Soros' brother Robert. Continucare spent $45 million acquiring South Florida medical practices, but as the roll-up failed to generate cash profits, its stock fell from 13 bucks to 19 cents. Fernandez stepped down as CEO in 1999.

He soon was CEO of Big City Radio, a radio chain that he converted to a Spanish-language format. Over the next three years, it lost $90 million and its stock slid from five bucks to 10 cents. After Big City sold its radio stations for the benefit of creditors in 2003, Fernandez spent the next few years running an addiction-treatment hospital and serving as a director of Phil Frost's IVAX.

After arriving at Fairholme, says Ahl's complaint, Fernandez urged Berkowitz to invest in health-care outfits like WellCare (WCG). He also became a key player in Fairholme's fight to control St. Joe, the owner of 600,000 acres of Florida panhandle property whose value has been the subject of a fierce debate between Berkowitz (who thinks it's high) and hedge-fund manager David Einhorn (who doesn't). Since January 2011, St. Joe shares have fallen from about $30 to $15. Until last week, Fernandez was co-manager of all three Fairholme funds, including Fairholme Focused (FOCIX) and Fairholme Allocation (FAAFX), which are also down substantially this year.

Berkowitz, of course, is Fairholme's ultimate decision maker. In the past, he has extolled Fernandez's business savvy. And he has praised Fernandez for bringing in last year's $2 billion gain on bond investments in AmeriCredit and General Growth Properties (GGP). In fact, Berkowitz has said, Fernandez made more money for Fairholme investors than had all previous employees, combined.

Fernandez probably did fine for himself, too. Barely a year after his arrival, Pitkowsky and Trauner departed from Fairholme. Fernandez seems to have been the only investment employee remaining to claim what David Ahl's lawsuit says was a bonus pool of 15% of the advisory firm's profits―probably more than $10 million in 2008.

Pitkowsky and Trauner declined to discuss Fairholme. And Barron's was unable to obtain comment from Ahl or his attorney.

Will Berkowitz's big bets work out? Maybe. Or maybe not. But one thing is clear: His travels with Charlie have ended.