Megacap misfire

Stockmarkets 
股票市场 
Megacap misfire 
大型股熄火

May 9th 2011, 12:46 by Buttonwood 

THERE are 26 stocks in the S&P 500 with a market value of more than $100 billion. According to Morgan Stanley, such companies are cheaper than they have been, relative to the rest of the market, in the past 25 years. In practical terms, this means they stand at an average 20% discount to the market's prospective price-earnings ratio. Since March 2009, the megacaps have risen 67% compared with the rest of the market's 118%. 
标普500指数中有26支股票的市值超过1000亿美元。摩根史坦利投资公司指出，在过去25年间，相对于市场中其余公司，这些公司的股价要低于其真实值。具体点说，这里指的是就市场预期的市盈率而言它们平均要低上20个百分点。自2009年3月以来，这些大型股上涨了67%，而市场中其余股票却上涨了118%。

Similar factors seem to be at play in Europe where, according to Newton, the biggest stocks (defined as those worth over �0 billion) have risen 60% since March 2009 while the rest of the market has more than doubled. 
类似的一幕看来也在欧洲上演。纽约梅隆资产管理旗下的牛顿投资管理公司指出，那些超大型股（被定义为市值超过300亿欧元的股票）自2009年3月以来已经上涨60%，同时市场中其余股票却已上涨超过一倍以上。

So what is going on? There is a potentially simple explanation for the underperformance since March 2009. During the crisis, investors will have flocked to the biggest names in the market for defensive reasons; once sentiment recovered, there was scope to find bargains in the small and midcap prices, some of which were priced as if they were going bankrupt. 
那么到底是怎么回事呢？这些大型股自2009年3月以来的弱势表现有一个隐含的简单解释。在危机期间，投资者出于防御风险的目的将扎堆于市场中最知名的公司；一旦投资情绪恢复正常，就会有人在中小型股中寻找商机，而其中一些中小型股会如同它崩溃时那样的速度上涨。

However, that factor doesn't explain the valuation discount. there might be two other explanations.  The first could be the expectation that future growth will be generated by emerging markets; while many of the megacaps are exposed to such markets, it is a relatively small part of the business. Investors may be looking for niche plays in the small and midcap areas.  However, a second explanation seems more plausible. The moment when megacaps had the highest relative value was in 1999/2000 when the TMT stocks (tech, media and telecom) were much sought-after. Now, with the odd exception such as Google and Apple, the megacap sector looks less exciting (banks, energy companies, pharamaceuticals). These may be solid businesses but it is hard to spin a story of endless double-digit profits growth.
可是，那样的理由不能解释其市值的低估。可能还存在另外两种解释。第一种可能的解释是，未来的经济增长将由新兴市场带动，而据披露许多大型股在这样的市场上只占相当小的业务比例。投资者可能正在中小型股中寻找利基角色。然而，第二种解释似乎更为合理。大型股的最高相对值出现在1999/2000年间，那时TMT（科技、媒体和电讯）股正大受追捧。现在，除了象谷歌和苹果之类的怪胎，大型股板块显得死气沉沉（银行，能源公司、医药集团）。它们可能有稳固的业绩，却很难去编造一个利润持续两位数增长的奇迹故事。