Commodity speculators do more good than harm

Commodity traders
投机商

Know your onions
了解你的洋葱

Commodity speculators do more good than harm
投机商的存在利大于弊

Nov 11th 2010



THE image of the market-rigging commodity speculator of modern folklore lies somewhere between moustache-twirling pantomime villain and James Bond's evil nemesis ("When I press this button the price of molybdenum will treble, the world will be destroyed and I will be rich, rich, rich!"). Measures are afoot to contain the speculators blamed by buyers, NGOs and politicians for spikes in oil, wheat, corn and other prices and supposedly bring order and harmony to commodity prices. Nicolas Sarkozy, who is taking over the presidency of the G20, is set to use the role to champion measures to bring commodity investors to heel. （首段有点难了，生词过多）

坊间传说的控制市场的商品投机者的形象（某种程度上是）介于长着小胡子的戏剧中的恶棍和詹姆斯邦德的邪恶复仇者之间（"当我按下这个按钮，钼的价格就会翻三倍，世界将会被毁灭，我也会变得很有钱、很有钱！"）。由于石油、小麦、玉米及其他（商品的）价格不断升高，（有关）措施正在筹备以容忍这些受到消费者、NGO和政治官员的责备的投机者，据推测这些措施会使商品价格恢复正常秩序和水平。马上就要接任G20主席的萨科奇打算通过自己的角色来支持这些措施从而使商品投机者就范。

Those naturally inclined to dismiss any French efforts to regulate financial markets should note that Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, is on his side too. And American regulatory reforms include the introduction of mandatory position limits on trading in energy, metals and agricultural commodities early next year.
那些自然地倾向于无视任何法国调整金融市场的努力的人们应该注意到，德国总理默克尔也站在了萨科奇的一边。美国的整顿改革包括了明年年初对能源、金属和农产品交易的强制性持仓限额。

More boring than bad
（仅仅是）更加让人心烦而不是更坏

Institutional investors and hedge-fund bosses do not deserve the attention they are getting. They are far duller folk than their caricatures and the offences they are accused of crumble on closer examination. There is almost no evidence to connect speculators to the commodity-price spikes that they are routinely blamed for creating (see article). And what little distortion speculators may cause is soundly trumped by the service they provide. In particular, they supply liquidity and price information that makes futures markets more efficient. Speculators plug the gap when the hedging requirements of raw-material producers and buyers do not coincide, offering a counterparty for trades that might otherwise have no takers.（本段后几句也有点难，但不影响理解）

机构投资者和对冲基金老板不该受到目前这么多的关注。他们要远比由于crumble on closer examination（所受到）的讽刺和冒犯反应更加迟钝。几乎没有证据证明投机者与商品价格暴涨有关，而商品价格的暴涨则是他们平日里受到责备的原因。并且投机商引起的微不足道的价格失真必然会由他们所提供的服务超过。尤其，他们提供了使未来市场更加有效的流动性和价格信息。当原材料生产商和买家的避险需要不一致时，投机商通过提供买家或者卖家来填补他们之间的缝隙。

The suggestion that speculators deliberately manipulate markets to earn profits through bubbles and busts simply does not hold water. The explanation for the sudden spikes in the prices of many commodities in recent years lies in nothing more sinister than the laws of supply and demand. A ravenous China, underinvestment in mining and agriculture, tight markets and unexpected disruptions to production are usually to blame for rapid price movements. When supply is tight, a small increase in demand can have a disproportionately large effect on price. Even if speculators do sometimes push prices out of kilter the fundamentals soon regain the upper hand.

说投机者有意操纵市场在泡沫和萧条中攫取利润完全说不通。最近几年一些商品价格的突然暴涨与其说是因为市场的险恶，不如说是因为供求定理。由于采矿业和农业的投资不足、供不应求的市场以及随时可能中断的生产，贪得无厌的中国才应该对快速的价格运动负责。当供给不足时，需求的一个微小增量就可能对价格造成不成比例的更大的影响。即使投机者确实在某些时候出于平衡推动了价格的上涨，但要不了多久市场规律就会重新占据优势。

And the amount of cash invested is tiny compared with the size of the total commodities market. It seems unlikely that such a small tail could wag such a large dog, especially given that investors almost exclusively trade futures contracts. They rarely take physical delivery of raw materials and have no effect on the actual production and consumption of metal, grain or oil.

另外，投机的那部分资金与整个商品市场的规模相比只是很小的一部分。这么一个小尾巴不大可能拖动那只大狗，更何况这些投机者几乎不准碰期货交易这一块。他们很少进行原材料的实物交割，对金属、谷物或者石油的实际生产和消费没有影响。

The worst that can be said about speculators, then, is that they may add a little to the volatility that anyway characterises commodity markets. Yet even that charge is hard to maintain. An OECD report suggests that there is little difference in volatility between exchange-traded agricultural commodities (such as wheat and corn) and non-exchange-traded ones (such as apples and onions).

因此，最糟糕的情况无非是这些投机商带来了些许的波动，但无论如何这些波动也正是商品市场的特征。但是他们对价格的控制其实很难维持。OECD的一份报告表明，在（价格）波动方面，交易所买卖的农产品（如小麦和玉米）和非交易所买卖的农产品（比如苹果和洋葱）之间并不存在明显的差异。

Commodity speculators make for tempting scapegoats and populist attempts to limit their activities will play well for both Mr Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel as they struggle to regain favour with voters in France and Germany. They come at little cost as neither country is home to much trading. Any restrictions will only serve to hit the centre of European commodity trading, the London Metal Exchange. It is the politicians, not the investors, who risk becoming the real villains in this affair.

商品投机者成了替罪羊，并且那些民粹主义者试图限制他们的（投机）活动，而所有这一切最终会对萨科奇先生和默克尔女士有利，因为他们两人正致力于重新获得各自在法国和德国的选民支持。而这一切来的几乎不需要什么成本，因为整个国家也并不想看到如此多的投机活动。任何限制（措施）只会冲击到作为欧洲商品交易中心的伦敦金属交易所。因此，正是那些政客们而不是投机者，在这个问题上冒着成为坏人的风险行事。

Leaders
领导人

备注：全文都是在肯定投机行为，甚至一度认为存在一定的波动正是市场经济所固有的特性。很明显作者是反对政府干预的，很明显是新右派的思想。这本来无可厚非，因为自由主义与国家干预从来都是各领风骚数30年。我惊异于西方的报纸竟然都如此具有学术水平的同时也不免遗憾。遗憾的是本篇文章甚至将价格的波动归咎于中国的因素，认为中国对市场的规制太多。总之，文章将中国视为一个"贪得无厌者"，我觉得有失该杂志也好报纸也好的客观性，乃至作者存在敌视中国的情绪。说实在的，认真翻译《经济学家》文章的5天以来，我反到对西方世界有了更冷静的认识。要知道，之前我是一个总是抱怨国情的cynic，还好还好。所以我在想，有时候我们国家一味的按和捂，反倒会让人们觉得里面肯定有什么见不得人的东西。看来，果然堵不如疏。放手让大家自己去判断，去甄别。但问题来了，又有多少国民具备这种甄别的能力呢？且不说大众，该报纸在大学生群体中，又有几人阅读？我突然想起了历史学范畴的"新民"，政治学范畴的"公民社会"，甚至包括09诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃莉诺奥斯特罗姆所谓的自主治理理论，或许一切的一切都在于人的素质，在于人首先对自己负责，即我理解的是首先具备辨别真伪的能力，之后自然知善恶与美丑。此所谓"真善美"，"真"因为回答世界是什么，所以必须在逻辑上先于"善美"这些回答世界应该是什么的价值判断。所以，一个不具备独立思考和判断能力的人，他的价值观也必然是混乱和易受到影响的。扯远了。就此打住。欢迎拍砖！