2010年8月30日

Warning labels for journalism 报刊杂志的警告标志

Warning labels for journalism
报刊杂志的警告标志
Aug 19th 2010, 19:36 by R.L.G. | NEW YORK
2010年8月19日，19:36 作者Ｒ.L.G 于纽约 From the Economist   

TOM SCOTT notes that "the media carefully warn about and label any content that involves sex, violence or strong language — but there's no similar labelling system for, say, sloppy journalism and other questionable content." He supplies some rather useful cautionary flags, like "Warning: to ensure future interviews with the subject, important questions were not asked."  Mark Liberman says scientific papers should come with similar labels, like
WARNING: This article contains conclusions about human subgroups drawn from small differences between small and unrepresentative samples. The observed differences are not not likely to be characteristic of individual members of those subgroups in the general population. More representative samples may not even replicate these findings as small differences in group means.

汤姆.斯科特注意到但凡内容涉及性、暴力或者强硬措辞的报道都会被媒体贴上警告的标签。但是对于像劣质新闻和其他可疑内容却没有相似的标签机制。他提到一些很有用的警示标志，比如“警告：为了确保后续采访，重要的问题没有被问及。”马克.利博曼提出科学论文应该有类似这样的标志 “警告，本文涵盖的关于人类子群的研究结论来自不具代表性的样本间微小差别。观察到差别可能不代表普通人群里子群中个体成员的特征。即使再多的代表性样本，也不能复制由人类子群中的小差别得出的重要结论。

I'd combine Mr Scott's and Mr Liberman's concerns and offer this omnibus warning to consumers of journalism about language:

我结合了斯科特和利伯曼的关注点，把这个综合的对语言的警示献给新闻报道的读者们。

WARNING: The journalist writing this article, though adept with language, does not know nearly as much as he thinks he does about language, and does not know that he does not know this. He will pass on and over-interpret, with no critical faculties brought to bear whatsoever, the findings simplified in a press release about some recent linguistic research, simply because the press release has a university's name at the top. For best results, skip the article and the press release and go to the original research.

警告：尽管写文章的记者是驾驭语言的老手，但是对于语言，他真正了解的往往没有他想象中了解得多。其他没有意识到他不知道一点。他继续传递并过分解读在新闻稿中精简的关于新近语言学研究的发现，而不进行任何批判性思考，紧紧因为该新闻稿顶端有某一大学的署名。要得到最佳的效果，就必须忽略这篇文章和报道，继续原来的研究。

Also, blog posts should probably come with       

同样，博客或许也该贴出：

WARNING:  Written in minutes and fact-checked in seconds via Google. May contain unsafe levels of self-righteousness. Past cleverness is no guarantee of future results.

警告：几分钟通过“谷歌”来素材，几秒钟对事实检验完毕，也许有些太自以为是。过去的聪明才智不是未来成果的保证。

But that would get rather repetitive.

但那些又太絮叨。

What other cautionary labels would be useful?

到底怎么才能是有用的警示标志呢？
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Drink till you drop――喝水也能瘦身

Obesity——肥胖

Drink till you drop——喝水也能瘦身

A magic elixir is shown to promote weight loss ——帮你瘦身的灵丹妙药

Aug 24th 2010 | NEW YORK



CONSUME more water and you will become much healthier, goes an old wives’ tale. Drink a glass of water before meals and you will eat less, goes another. Such prescriptions seem sensible, but they have little rigorous science to back them up.

   有种民间说法广为流传：多喝些水会更健康。还有一种版本是：饭前一杯水，吃饭少一嘴。这些瘦身法听起来挺合情合理，但没有缜密的科学依据。

Until now, that is. A team led by Brenda Davy of Virginia Tech has run the first randomised controlled trial studying the link between water consumption and weight loss. A report on the 12-week trial, published earlier this year, suggested that drinking water before meals does lead to weight loss. At a meeting of the American Chemical Society in Boston this week, Dr Davy unveiled the results of a year-long follow-up study that confirms and expands that finding.
  
  但是现在，这些说法有理有据了。佛吉尼亚科技大学Brenda Davy带领的研究小组率先就饮水与瘦身之间的联系开展了随机对照实验。今年早些时候发表了一份为期12周的实验报告，该实验显示：饭前喝水确实可以减轻体重。在美国化学协会本周于波士顿召开的会议上，Davy博士指出，长达一年的跟踪调查结果支持并拓宽了这个发现。

The researchers divided 48 inactive Americans, aged 55 to 75, into two groups. Members of one were told to drink half a litre of water (a bit more than an American pint) shortly before each of three daily meals. The others were given no instructions on what to drink. Before the trial, all participants had been consuming between 1,800 and 2,200 calories a day. When it began, the women’s daily rations were slashed to 1,200 calories, while the men were allowed 1,500. After three months the group that drank water before meals had lost about 7kg (15½lb) each, while those in the thirsty group lost only 5kg.
  研究员将48位年龄介于55到75岁之间，不爱运动的美国人分为甲乙两组。他们要求甲组成员每日三餐饭前不久喝半升水（500ml）,对乙组成员则没有这方面的要求。实验前，所有的志愿者每天的摄入的热量一直都在1800卡到2200卡之间。实验开始后，女性成员的日常热量摄入量被控制在1200卡，男性成员则被控制在1500卡。三个月后甲组组员每人瘦了7kg，而乙组组员每人只瘦5kg。

Dr Davy confidently bats away some obvious doubts about the results. There is no selection bias, she observes, since this is a randomised trial. It is possible that the water displaced sugary drinks in the hydrated group, but this does not explain the weight loss because the calories associated with any fizzy drinks consumed by the other group had to fall within the daily limits. Moreover, the effect seems to be long-lasting. In the subsequent 12 months the participants have been allowed to eat and drink what they like. Those told to drink water during the trial have, however, stuck with the habit—apparently they like it. Strikingly, they have continued to lose weight (around 700g over the year), whereas the others have put it back on.

  Davy博士信心满满地扫除了对实验结果的一些明显质疑。她指出，这个实验不存在选择性偏差，因为这是一个随机试验。可能甲组组员因为喝了水，就没有再喝加糖饮料了，但这不能解释他们为什么瘦得更多。因为即使乙组组员喝了碳酸饮料，他们每天摄入的卡路里量也是在控制范围内的。况且喝水瘦身的效果似乎是不反弹的。随后的12个月里，志愿者的饮食不再受到限制。然而那些在实验中天天饭前喝水的组员保持了这个习惯，很显然大家喜欢这个习惯。令人吃惊的是，他们的体重还在减轻，一年大约瘦700g，而没喝水的乙组组员的体重却反弹了。

Why this works is obscure. But work it does. It’s cheap. It’s simple. And unlike so much dietary advice, it seems to be enjoyable too.

  这个方法为什么如此有效实在令人费解。但它确实有效，而且便宜、简单，不像其它饮食建议那么繁杂，看起来还那么令人愉快。
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2010年8月26日

Junk science太空污染问题

The problem of space pollution
太空污染问题

Junk science
除脏科学

Scientists are increasingly worried about the amount of debris orbiting the Earth
科学家们越来越担忧环地轨道上的那些太空垃圾

Aug 19th 2010


FEBRUARY 10th 2009 began like every other day in Iridium 33's 11-year life.One of a constellation of 66 small satellites in orbit around the Earth, it spent its time whizzing through space, diligently shuttling signals to and from satellite phones. At 3pm a report suggested it might see some excitement: two hours later it would pass less than 600 metres from a defunct communications satellite called Cosmos 2251. It did. A lot less. The two craft collided and the result was hundreds of pieces of shrapnel more than 10cm across, and thus large enough to track by radar—and goodness knows how many that were not. This accident came two years after the deliberate destruction by the Chinese of their Fengyun-1C spacecraft in the test of an anti-satellite weapon. That created over 2,000 pieces of junk bigger than 10cm, and an estimated 35,000 pieces more than 1cm across. Together, these incidents increased the number of objects in orbit at an altitude of 700-1,000km by a third (see chart).

2009 年2月10日，这天的开始，就像"铱星33号"11岁生涯中的任何一天一样，毫无异兆。由66颗小铱星组成的铱星群在绕地轨道上的太空高速运行，孜孜不倦地在铱星和卫星电话间来回发送信号，铱星33号是其中的一颗，今天是它生命的终结时刻。下午三时，一份报道提示，铱星33号可能会出现某种令人激动的景象：两小时后，它将以少于 600 米的距离从一颗已报废的叫作"宇宙 2251号"的通信卫星旁掠过。它确实掠过了，距离却少了很多。结果是两星相撞，产生了无数大于10 厘米的碎片，而且大到足以通过雷达来跟踪——只有老天才知道究竟有多少碎片。这种事两年前就有了，两年前，中国搞了一次反卫星武器试验，试验中有目的地摧毁了一颗中国自己的"风云—1号C "卫星。那次毁星行动产生了2000 多件大于10 厘米太空碎片，估计还四散了35000 片大于1 厘米的碎片。这些事故使离地700-1000公里的轨道上运行的太空物增加了三分之一（见图表）。



Such low-Earth orbits, or LEOs, are among the most desirable for artificial satellites. They are easy for launch rockets to get to, they allow the planet's surface to be scanned in great detail for both military and civilian purposes, and they are close enough that even the weak signals of equipment such as satellite phones can be detected. Losing the ability to place satellites safely into LEOs would thus be a bad thing. And that is exactly what these two incidents threatened. At orbital velocity, some eight kilometres a second, even an object a centimetre across could knock a satellite out. The more bits of junk there are out there, the more likely this is to happen. And junk begets junk, as each collision creates more fragments—a phenomenon known as the Kessler syndrome, after Donald Kessler, an American physicist who postulated it in the 1970s.

这类低地轨道（或叫LEOs）是人造卫星最理想的轨道。这类轨道很容易通过发射火箭到达，这类轨道使地球表面的军事和民用目标得到非常详尽的扫描，这类轨道离地相当近，甚至如卫星电话等设备的微弱信号都可以捕捉到。因此，将卫星置入低地轨道安全运行这一可能性的失去，原本就是一件坏事。而这两次事件的威胁所引起的恰恰就是这种坏事。该轨道的运行速度约每秒八公里，即使碰上一个一厘米大小的物体，也会使一颗卫星毁灭。在该轨道上的碎片越多，就越有可能产生碎片。碎片生碎片，因为每次碰撞产生更多的碎片——这就形成一种叫"凯斯勒综合症"的现象，也就是美国物理学家唐纳德·凯斯勒在上世纪七十年代创立的一种假说。

According to the European Space Agency (ESA) the number of collision alerts has doubled in the past decade. Nicholas Johnson, the chief scientist for orbital debris at ESA's American equivalent, NASA, says modelling of the behaviour of space debris "most definitely confirms the effect commonly referred to as the Kessler syndrome". Even the National Security Space Office at the Pentagon is worrying about whether a tipping-point has been reached, or soon will be.

根据欧洲航天局(ESA)所述，卫星碰撞报警次数在最近十年增加了一倍。与ESA地位相当的美国国家航空和宇宙航行局（NASA）轨道碎片首要科学家尼古拉斯・约翰逊又说，太空碎片行为模拟试验"非常确凿地证实了平常所称的凯斯勒综合症所指的现象"。甚至美国五角大楼的国家太空安全办公室也在担心：[碎片灾难]的临界点是已经到达呢，还是将要到达。

Concerns like Dr Kessler's have caused launch agencies to take more care about what they get up to. In particular, accidental explosions in orbit have been reduced by depressurising redundant rockets after they have released their satellites. Also, the number of spy satellites launched has fallen since the demise of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, there is still a problem.

与凯斯勒博士的假说相类似的担心实际已促使卫星发射部门更加注意其发射行为。特别是在轨道上的意外撞击事故已经实现了减少，这是通过在轨道释放卫星时减少不必要的箭体[残留]来实现的。此外，自苏联解体以来，间谍卫星的发射数量也下降了。不过，问题仍在。

Scouring the skies
太空大扫除

The real threat now comes from collisions between things that are already up there—so much so that since the demise of Iridium 33, the normally secretive Strategic Command (Stratcom) of America's Defence Department has become rather helpful. Brian Weeden, an expert on space debris at the Secure World Foundation, a think-tank, says Stratcom now screens every operational satellite, every day, looking for close approaches, and notifies all operators. Even the Chinese? "Everybody," he says, "the Russians, the Chinese, even the Nigerians." This means that satellites' owners have better information with which to decide whether to use a small amount of their precious fuel reserves to avoid a collision.

现在，真正的威胁来自那些已经在轨道运行的物体间的碰撞——这个问题已非常严重，以致于像美国国防部那个通常神秘兮兮的战略安全处（战备通信司令部）自从铱星33号撞毁以来，也愿意多多少少提供一些帮助。世界基金会（系一个智囊团）的太空碎片问题专家布赖恩•威登说：战备通信司令部现在每天都在寻求更加有效的方法观察每颗业务卫星，并将观察结果通知每个卫星经营者。甚至还包括通知中国？他说："通知及于每个国家，俄国、中国、甚至尼日利亚"。这就意味着，卫星业主们获得了更好的信息，以决定是否使用[卫星上]不多的、宝贵的燃料储备来避免碰撞事故的发生。

But even this would not be enough. What is needed is a way to clean up the junk so that it is no longer a problem. Ideas for doing this are growing almost as fast as space debris. One proposal, originally made a decade ago by the American armed forces, would be to use ground-based lasers to change the orbits of pieces between 1cm and 10cm across by vaporising parts of their surfaces. This would produce enough thrust to cause the debris to re-enter the atmosphere. The proposal suggested a single laser facility would be enough to remove all junk of this size in three years.

但这还不够。真正需要的，是一种清除太空碎片的方法，使太空碎片不再是问题。清除太空碎片的主意迅速成熟起来，成熟的速度几乎像太空垃圾的增长速度一样快。有一个最初是由美国军方于十年前提出的主意——用地面激光汽化1至10厘米的碎片的表面部分，使之运行轨道改变。这种方式会产生足够大的推力使碎片重新进入大气层。该主意称：三年内，单束激光的能量将足以清除所有1至10厘米的太空碎片。

Another way of slowing junk down, and thus causing it to burn up in the atmosphere, was proposed this month by Alliant Techsystems, a firm based in Minneapolis. Alliant suggests building special satellites enclosed in multiple spheres of strong, lightweight materials. Debris hitting such a satellite would give up momentum—and thus velocity—with each collision. As a bonus, many objects large enough to cause damage would be shattered by the collisions into fragments too small to cause serious harm.

还有一种方法是使碎片的速度降低，进而进入大气层烧掉，这种方法是在本月由设在明尼阿波利斯能源公司Techsystems 提出的。能源公司建议，研制一种特殊卫星，这种卫星外面用各种强度好、质地轻的材料包裹起来。碎片撞击这种卫星时，动能减弱、其速度也因每次撞击而慢下来。其结果是，许多足以造成严重损害的碎片会因撞击而碎成很小的、不再对卫星造成损害的碎片。

However, many space agencies are considering a third option: robot missions that would dock with dead satellites and fire rockets either to boost them into "graveyard" orbits or to deorbit them completely, so they crashed into the sea. Jer-Chyi Liou, an expert on orbital debris at NASA, estimates that if such a mission started in 2020, and removed the five objects most likely to create future debris, it would more or less solve the space-junk problem.

不过，许多航天局正在考虑的是选择第三的类办法：把机器人派上天去，由它们去把那些报废卫星和已烧尽的火箭残体捉倒，然后将其推进"死亡轨道"或将其坠入大海。美国航空航天局轨道残骸专家Jer-Chyi Liou估计，如果在2020年开始这种机器人扫天，并消除五个很可能形成未来残骸的太空物的话，它也将或多或少解决了太空垃圾问题。  

A knock-out blow?

ESA is thinking about this sort of solution, too. It is the owner of what has—perhaps unfairly—been termed "possibly the most dangerous piece of space debris" by a recent article in SpaceNews. The debris in question is Envisat, one of the largest Earth-observation satellites yet built. At the moment it is still working, but when its fuel runs out, sometime between 2016 and 2018, it will become a giant piece of junk—one that will remain in a crowded orbit for 150 years. Or not. For even conservative estimates suggest there is one chance in four that it will be destroyed in a collision during that period.


欧空局也在考虑这种解决方案。《太空杂志》最近有篇文章说：欧空局是一个被称作"或许是最危险的太空废弃物"的主人（或许这种说法不公平）。这个热议中废弃物就是指的Envisat星，它是尚在运行中的最大的地球观测卫星之一。尽管它目前仍在工作，但其燃料会2016年至 2018的某个时刻耗尽，届时它成为一块巨大的太空垃圾且将在拥挤的轨道上存续150年。或者不到150年。即使根据保守的估计，在此期间因撞而毁的机率将达到四分之一。

On the face of things, all this consideration of the problem is good. But this being space, where matters military are never far from the minds of those who think about it, there remains a serious question.

从形式上看，所有国家对太空碎片问题的关注都是善意的。但这些问题仍然非同小可，因为太空对军事有重要影响的想法从未远离那些想把太空用于军事目的人。  

Satellites are crucial to modern warfare. They spy on battlefields and on even the peaceful activities of enemies, rivals and questionable allies. They provide communication links. Knocking them out—as the Chinese practised with Fengyun-1C—would be a useful military trick.

卫星是现代战争的关键。卫星监视战场，甚至监视敌人、竞争对手和可疑盟国的和平活动。卫星提供通讯联系。打掉卫星（就像中国在试验中击毁"风云—1号C "卫星一样）将是很有用的军事手段。

Any programme designed to remove satellites from orbit thus makes military types from other countries nervous. Some people, Mr Weeden among them, argue that such fears can be overcome if there is international co-operation over exactly which objects are removed and who is doing what. It would certainly be in everyone's interest to do so.

无论哪种从轨道上清除卫星垃圾的设计方案都使其他国家产生军事紧张情绪。一些人（其中有Weeden先生）坚持认为，如果在该清除哪些太空垃圾和由谁去清理上实行完全的国际合作，那么这类紧张情绪是可以克服的。这种合作会使人人受益。
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2010年8月22日

First Financial Looks to China

First Financial Looks to China

By RON BROWNLOW AND STEVE PRICE | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

One of Taiwan's leading banks is setting itself up for liberalized trans-strait banking. Investors should get on board.

 

WHEN YOU THINK OF TAIWAN, you think of its technology companies. But investors should take note of the island nation's financial sector, and in particular the state-controlled First Financial Holding Company (ticker: 2892.Taiwan).

Though not as well known as peers Fubon (2881.Taiwan) and Chinatrust (2881.Taiwan), First Bank, a subsidiary of the 32-percent state-owned First Financial Holding Company, ranks among Taiwan's top three in terms of loan-to-debt ratio and demand deposit as a percentage of total deposit—two factors that make it attractive to investors because the country is in the early stages of the credit cycle, and yield-curve spreads are expected to improve. Dexter Hsu, vice president of Asia Financial Research at J.P. Morgan Securities, has an Overweight rating on First Financial, with a potential upside of 30 percent. "When we see interest-rate hikes, they will benefit most," he says.

And that's not taking into account the China angle.

In November, Taipei signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Beijing on cross-strait banking. And in June, it inked the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which was ratified by Taiwan's legislature on Tuesday. The agreements permit Taiwanese banks to set up branches in China, conduct business in renminbi and acquire Chinese banks—assuming Chinese agreement.

First Financial is part of the first tranche of banks—in addition to Taiwan Cooperative Bank (5854. Taiwan), Chang Hwa Bank (2801.Taiwan) and Land Bank of Taiwan (wholly state owned)—that have been cleared by Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) to set up branches in China.

First Financial's shares—traded on Taiwan's benchmark Taiex —have surged 22% since May 25, the day after Taipei and Beijing ended the final round of negotiations on the ECFA, closing at NT$18.8 on Wednesday, Aug. 18. J.P. Morgan's price target is NT$24. First Financial's high valuation—at 18 times estimated 2010 earnings per share, compared with Changhwa at 11, Taishin (2887.Taiwan) at 13.3, Chinatrust (2891.Taiwan) at 13.9 and SinoPac (2890.Taiwan) at 22.3—reflects an expected EPS growth of 138.9% in 2010.

Still, KGI analyst Wenyen Fang likes First Financial because its client base—especially small and medium Taiwanese enterprises—is larger than its peers, its offshore-banking business has performed well, and it's more profitable than the other three state-controlled banks awaiting approval from Beijing.

To be sure, there are risks. Taiwan has been historically inclined to follow a pro-export monetary policy to drive growth, which artificially weakens the New Taiwan dollar and keeps interest rates low. And investors are awaiting the results of a government stress test of banks, to be completed on Sept. 15. Bad news would dent confidence in the suddenly buoyant financial sub-index.

According to local media reports, however, the FSC is expecting that the nation's 40 or so banks will only need to set aside an additional NT$30 billion to cover potential losses. And Taiwan's central bank has already announced a surprise interest rate hike in June to cool the overheating property market in northern Taiwan; analysts see the move as the first of a series of quarterly rises.

"We think First Financial Holding Company has the niche to perform better in China," Fang says. "When they are approved by China's government, that's the point to see a rise in the financial index." 
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Where the Chemistry Is Right

Where the Chemistry Is Right

By VITO J. RACANELLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Akzo Nobel, an Amsterdam-based specialty-chemicals company, produced sharply improved first-half results and the outlook is bright even without a strong rebound in U.S. and European economies.

 

IF YOU WERE TOLD OF A COMPANY that is a global leader in the three sectors it plays in, with leading market shares, about 40% of its sales from growing emerging markets, a solid balance sheet, a 3% dividend yield and an undemanding valuation that isn't overly dependent on a global economic recovery, chances are you'd be interested.

It's a chemicals company. Wait. Really. Come back.

Apart from the early phases of an economic recovery, this cyclical sector typically isn't well-liked, and with the current abounding "double dip" jitters about the U.S. economy, few investors want to hear about chemical stocks, regardless of their particular attractions.

Akzo Nobel (ticker: AKZA.Netherlands), whose three main businesses are decorative paints, industrial coatings and specialty chemicals, is worth a second look. The Amsterdam-based company announced dramatically improved first-half results July 23, and the shares duly rose some 5% to 46.75 euros the same day. However, since then the stock has eased back to €42.75 on global macroeconomic worries, roughly where it was in April. Sporting a $13 billion market cap, Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) also trades over the counter in the U.S., closing Friday at about 54.45.

The bears on Akzo point out that the U.S. housing market hasn't rebounded, notes John Goetz co-chief investment officer at Pzena Investment Management (PZN). That's true, but the company put together a strong first half anyway, he observes. "The bear case is the one we are already in." There's more upside than downside here, he avers.

Akzo reported revenues that rose 10% to €7.2 billion in the first half, while net income jumped to $354 million, or €1.52 a share, from €148 million or 64 euro cents. Earnings before interest, depreciation and amortization soared 27% to over €1 billion, and the Ebitda margin hit the company's target of 14%.

All that, as the company noted, came with still "weak revenue developments" in the mature parts of its global decorative paints markets—mainly the U.S. and Europe. Yet that division, which is exposed to the housing market, still managed an 8% revenue rise, helped by favorable currency translations. Meanwhile, the industrial-coatings and specialty-chemical divisions, where barriers to entry are high, are humming along and posted strong double-digit revenue gains in the first half, Goetz points out.

"It's a great business with high return on investment, a good balance sheet and high market shares," he adds "If you didn't call it a chemicals company," investors would be more interested in Akzo, he says. It's one of the biggest holdings in Pzena's international funds.

Perhaps most important about the second quarter: Volume sales for decorative paints were up 1%. That's down from a 5% rise in the first quarter but it's far above the double-digit volume drops one year ago.

Though not a household name, Akzo is the largest global supplier of decorative paints with a 15% market share, and many of Akzo's products, like Dulux paint, are strong brands in countries around the world. The company owns the No. 1 or 2 position in many countries, Goetz observes.

With the ordinary shares trading at 11 times next year's analyst consensus earnings estimates of €3.88 a share and five times Ebitda, the valuation is relatively low for one of the premier companies in the sector and already seems to discount a slow recovery in the West.

Akzo's outlook was upgraded last week to Stable from Negative by both Moody's and Standard & Poor's, and the latter notes Akzo benefits from significantly lower cyclicality than other chemicals businesses.

No stock is without caveats, and Akzo faces a few. It does have pension deficit of €1.8 billion, but that appears less worrisome after noting that Akzo's net debt position of €2.3 billion will likely fade to under €1biillion after the proceeds come in from the sale of its National Starch unit. And the shares won't be helped by a drop back into recession by the U.S. or Europe. But then what stock would be?

From here, a total return of 10% seems doable even with developed economies' slow recovery, but it could perhaps be as much as 20% if things pick up in the U.S. and Europe.

THE STOXX EUROPE 600 index fell about 0.7% Friday and lost 1.3% on the week, to finish at 252.15, its lowest close in a month. As noted above, investor worries about an economic recovery in the U.S. and Europe continue to take a toll, and were strong enough to overcome some bracing merger and acquisition news last week, such as Intel's (INTC)) $7.68 billion offer Thursday to buy computer-security software maker McAfee (MFE). The Stoxx 600 index is essentially unchanged for the year.

European bank and oil company stocks took the brunt of the hit for the week, with both sectors down over 2% since the previous Friday. Meanwhile, at around 1.27 late Friday, the euro ended flat on the week but fell from highs of $1.29 midweek.

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No Dip in Smartphones

No Dip in Smartphones

By MARK VEVERKA | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The hot segment of the consumer electronics business shows no signs of getting caught in the economic slump.

THANK GOODNESS FOR SMARTPHONES and the mobile Internet. They are the rare tech products with the ability to power through the peaks and valleys of this dubious economic recovery. Folks just seem willing to purchase smartphones, despite tightened budgets and underemployment.

As a category, smartphones have been seeing higher adoption rates since the 2007 launch of Apple's iPhone, and they are expected to account for 20% of all mobile handsets by year end. Smartphone unit sales grew 15% in the second quarter. That advance wasn't as robust as the first quarter's 21%—an all-time high—but still represented a double-digit gain, notes technology analyst Bill Whyman of ISI Group, an investment-research firm. Whyman increased his 2010 projection of growth in unit sales of smartphones by three percentage points, to 15%-16%, based on their resilient first-half performance.

Mobile handsets are starting to affect the personal-computer market, as some people use them, rather than laptops, for mobile web-browsing and other tasks. And their rapid proliferation also is contributing to the mounting pressure to double the country's broadband spectrum, Whyman notes. Despite the industry's growth trajectory, it seems inconceivable that there is room at the top for all of the handset makers, causing each to push its engineers and designers to stay relevant in the face of constant innovation.

APPLE'S (ticker: AAPL) iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android operating system are the early favorites to dominate the category. (ISI hardware analyst Abhey Lamba rates Apple a Buy with a 320 price target, versus about 250 last week.) But that doesn't mean others, including handset stalwarts Nokia (NOK) and Motorola (MOT) are sitting idle. Unfortunately for most of them, there are six major smartphone operating-system platforms, which is "too many," Whyman argues. The market is bifurcating between high-end, or "super" smartphones, such as the iPhone and Research In Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry models, and "feature" smartphones. Nokia, which is still No. 1 in total market share, saw its smartphone unit sales grow 44%, year-over-year, during the second quarter, to a record 59 million. But the stiff competition is causing Nokia and others to cut prices and squeeze margins, according to Whyman. Nokia's brass has told investors that its sequential asking-price decline has been driven primarily by price pressure, particularly in high-end smartphones.

Handset manufacturers such as Motorola and HTC (2498.Taiwan), which have embraced the Android operating system, continue to chip away at Nokia. Motorola, in particular, has enjoyed "dramatic" increases in asking prices, thanks to the introduction of new Droids.

An important factor that leads to lower asking prices is a stronger U.S. dollar. Average handset prices were down 5.8% in the second quarter from the level in the previous quarter, and down 8.4% from the year-earlier level, Whyman says. But most of the price drop across all manufacturers can be attributed to foreign-exchange swings, he says.

As prices drop, so do profits. In the second quarter, the average profit per handset plunged 16%, to about $6—about $6.40 in constant currency. "Because everyone wants to be in smartphones, [the] competition is predictably driving down profits," Whyman notes. "Yet, in the end, the bulk of the profits end up with Apple." Little surprise there.  
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Big Mergers and Kiddie Stocks

Big Mergers and Kiddie Stocks

By MICHAEL SANTOLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Sizing up takeover speculation and the rise of kid-friendly stocks like McDonald's.

FOLKS ON WALL STREET WHO SPEND their days staring at news tickers greet big headlines by immediately speculating on their eventual symbolic echoes.

"What does Stanley Druckenmiller's decision to back away from his $12 billion hedge fund say about the business? Can an instinctive macro trader no longer figure out today's market of high-speed robot pinball?"

Or: "If the market bottomed right around the time the government took control of General Motors, what does it mean that GM just filed an IPO?"

(From this desk, the answers to the above lack drama or portent. The first says that 57-year-old billionaires just might not want to worry about quarterly client letters after 30 years of it. The second would perhaps be more ominous if many people in the spring of 2009 were insisting that the government takeover of GM was a clearly bullish signal.)

A lot of this conjectural querying derives from the common failure to anticipate those events that always end up seeming, in retrospect, like the obvious clue of a market turn. As in, "If only I'd gotten short the housing market in '06 as soon as Wachovia and Merrill Lynch bought subprime lenders…"

There's no more science to this than there is in the typical sports-talk radio chatter, but it can be amusing in the late-summer slog, and helps hone one's market views. Here are a few such topical questions about possible symbolic market elements.

• Is this recent surge in corporate acquisition activity outright bullish, or a warning sign of excess, or something else?

First off, it's entirely expected and logical. The bounty of idle cash on the books of big nonfinancial companies is a dog-eared sheet of the market bull's playbook. The bond market is outright pleading with companies to issue cheap debt for deals. Growth today is probably easier to buy than build for many CEOs.

The use of cash, borrowed or not, in such proposed takeouts as BHP's (ticker: BHP) unfriendly $39 billion bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) and Intel's (INTC) $7.7 billion purchase of McAfee (MFE), spotlights pockets of perceived value in the shares of both the target and acquirer.

Yet, the abundance of takeover rumors of varying levels of plausibility that have been driving speculative options buying the past couple of weeks is the sort of thing that often marks the latter phase of a bullish market phase.

The bottom line is that the M&A theme is a net-positive factor, and will be until it gets more out of hand, but it's surely not the key reason to buy the market here.

• What does the character of the relative handful of large stocks trading near an all-time high tell us about what works in this tape?

For one thing, you might consider having a team of 10-year-olds assemble your portfolio, focusing on brands familiar to them. A screen of Standard & Poor's 500 stocks ranked by how close they are to an all-time high was run by Bespoke Investment Group at Barron's request. Of the 37 stocks as of Thursday's close priced at 90% or more of their all-time peak, at least 10 passed the kid-favorite test.

These include McDonald's (MCD), Yum! Brands (YUM), Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS), JM Smucker (SJM), General Mills (GIS), Hasbro (HAS), Nike (NKE) and Discovery Communications (DISCA).

While some of these, such as McDonald's and JM Smucker, continue to look attractive based on their valuation, growth prospects and dividends, the lesson of this exercise is really that in a long-lasting sideways market, traditional growth stocks with multi-generational brand equity often attract an outsize proportion of investor dollars. Just go back and look at Coca-Cola's (KO) stock chart from the 1930s.

• What will the popular fury about fiscal funding gaps alight on next, now that outrage about what government employees are paid has become a staple of cable-news screeds?

At the state level, there's been a bear case in the market for a while surrounding the private prison operators, such as Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) and Geo Group (GEO), based on states' budget constraints driving down contract rates and encouraging prison release programs. This hasn't yet materially hurt the companies, but additional straws are blowing around. Fortune magazine, keying off a recent escape of Arizona inmates from a private prison, noted that some research concludes that prison outsourcing might not save much money.

Corrections Corp. remains a well-managed company with stable cash flows and a reasonable valuation. It's owned in size by a pedigreed set of astute institutional investors, and has been a bullish (and profitable) pick of Barron's Daily Stock Alert online subscription service.

Yet if the public anger about government finances builds up a bigger head of steam, the market might focus more on the threats than the promises. 

E-mail: michael.santoli@barrons.com

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Fisheries biology: War dividend

 
 

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Fisheries biology

War dividend

The second world war led to a boom in North Sea fish numbers

Aug 19th 2010

SOME experiments are hard to conduct. Fisheries biologists are, for example, reasonably confident that creating protected areas in the sea, in which fishing is forbidden, encourages the recovery of those species that stay put in the area. This has worked in several places in the tropics, notably the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, where fish populations in protected zones have doubled in five years. They are less confident, however, that it applies to places where the fish of interest are migratory, as is often the case in temperate-zone fisheries like those of the North Atlantic and its adjacent seas.

Closing such places to fishing in order to find out is politically difficult. But 71 years ago politics did dictate one such closure, and a group of biologists, led by Doug Beare at the European Commission's Office of Maritime Affairs, has now taken advantage of it. The closure in question was the little matter of the second world war, and Dr Beare and his team have been looking at its effects on the population of cod, haddock and whiting in the North Sea.

The information they worked with was collected by Britain's Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries from a region known as Buchan, off the north-eastern coast of Scotland, between 1928 and 1958. During the war British trawlers continued to plough the waves of the eastern Atlantic, between Britain and Iceland, but more or less stopped fishing in the North Sea, which was nearer Germany and thus much riskier. The reports reveal that fishing activity in the Buchan region dropped from 300,000 hours a year in 1938 to practically zero after the war started in 1939. The fish species in question, however, migrate between these two areas, so the question was how much the reduction of fishing effort in part of their range would affect their numbers.

As they reveal in Naturwissenschaften, Dr Beare and his colleagues found that populations of all age groups of all three species declined steadily between 1928 and 1939. There was a particularly steep fall—over 80%—in the number of two-year-old haddock. During the war, though, most of the populations rebounded, with older fish showing the biggest increase. The number of ten-year-old haddock, for example, went up nearly twelvefold during the six years the conflict lasted, though year-old haddock actually declined by 50%. The team propose the theory that such yearlings are truly, in this case, the exception that proves the rule. Such small fry are prey, and as the number of older, predatory fish increased, yearling haddock suffered disproportionately.

Once hostilities ceased in 1945, the populations of all three species resumed their pre-war decline though, intriguingly, there was a surge in numbers around 1955. The reasons for this post-war baby-boom are obscure—and show that there is still much to learn about fisheries biology. But one lesson is clear. Laying off, even for just six years, has as big an effect on migratory fish as it does on sedentary ones.

Science and Technology

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Beer in Asia: Billions of throats

 
 

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Beer in Asia

Billions of throats

Asia's powerful thirst for beer does not mean bumper profits for brewers

Aug 19th 2010

DRINKING beer is not a competitive sport—unless you are a student or a rugby player. But if it were, Asia would now have the bragging rights. Recent figures from Japan's Kirin Institute of Food and Lifestyle (owned by the Kirin brewery) show that in 2009 Asia overhauled Europe in beer production for the first time. Almost all beer is consumed where it is made, so Asians collectively chug more than the boozers of any other continent.

That would seem like encouraging news for the world's big four brewers—Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI), SABMiller, Carlsberg and Heineken—which between them supply nearly half the needs of the world's beer drinkers. All four have pursued roughly the same strategy in recent years. They bought breweries in rich countries, where beer drinking has levelled off or fallen, and boosted profitability by stripping out costs. At the same time they snapped up brewers in emerging markets, where the party can only get livelier. But they cannot afford yet to relax with a cool one. Most tasty takeover targets have been swallowed, so the brewing giants will henceforth have to rely more on organic growth. Asia's spectacular thirst ought to help a lot, but won't yet.

Consider China, which has come from nowhere a few decades ago to become the world's biggest quaffer of beer by far. Its people slosh down 70% more than Americans do, and the market is growing by nearly 10% a year (a bit better than America's 1.2%). But profits are slim. ABI's results for the first half of this year show margins of 41% in America but only 14% in China and South Korea. And China's market is highly fragmented—the top two brewers have only 35% of it, compared with 70-100% in some countries. This means that retailers have brewers over a barrel.

Buy a brewer in a poor country and you get a familiar brand and a ready-built distribution network. As incomes rise, the locals may be lured into drinking more profitable premium beers. Alas for the big brewers, this is not yet happening in China, and may not for a generation, says Anthony Bucalo of Credit Suisse, a bank.

Other Asian markets are tiny, apart from Japan. But western brewers have never been able to compete with Japanese ones on their home turf. And takeovers are unthinkable given the country's ice-cold attitude to foreign ownership. Some day, billions of thirsty Asians will make global brewers sing. But not today.

Business

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Japan as number three: Watching China whizz by

 
 

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Japan as number three

Watching China whizz by

Japan is now the world's third-largest economy. Can its firms cope?

Aug 19th 2010 | TOKYO

FIVE years ago China's economy was half as big as Japan's. This year it will probably be bigger (see chart 1). Quarterly figures announced this week showed that China had overtaken its ancient rival. It had previously done so only in the quarter before Christmas, when Chinese GDP is always seasonally high.

Since China's population is ten times greater than Japan's, this moment always seemed destined to arrive. But it is surprising how quickly it came. For Japan, which only two decades ago aspired to be number one, the slip to third place is a gloomy milestone. Yet worse may follow.

Many of the features of Japanese capitalism that contributed to its long malaise still persist: the country is lucky if its economy grows by 1% a year. Although Japan has made substantial reforms in corporate governance, financial openness and deregulation, they are far from enough. Unless dramatic changes take place, Japan may suffer a third lost decade.

Of course, Japan still boasts some of the world's most innovative firms. Carmakers such as Toyota and electronics firms such as Toshiba are in a class of their own. Japanese firms hold more than a 70% market share in 30 industries worth more than $1 billion in annual sales, from digital cameras to car-navigation devices, according to 2008 data. Whatever the brand on a digital gadget's case, Japanese wares are stuffed inside or are essential for producing it.

Yet the success of Japan's best firms masks wider weaknesses. Yoko Ishikura, a business professor at Hitotsubashi University, believes that Japanese bosses are complacent. "They are either too afraid to face the reality of the power shift," she says, "or [they] want to stick to old, familiar models." Yet the core problem is that Japan suffers from a gross misallocation of resources, both financial and human.

Japan has long kept the cost of capital low, to boost investment or help stragglers. Since the financial crisis began, bureaucratic organs such as the Innovation Network Corporation of Japan and the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corporation have been handed $25 billion to revitalise ailing companies. Among the latter agency's first acts was to assist a dying wireless operator that bet on archaic technology.


Food for zombies

The system almost guarantees that fresh capital goes to the losers of yesteryear. Because struggling companies rarely die, new ones do not form. Japan's bankruptcy rate is half of America's; the rate at which it creates new firms is only a third as high. Japanese venture capitalists are few and far between. Japan's bureaucratic allocation of credit seldom spurs animal spirits. Rather, it nourishes zombies.

Japan has also lost its knack for getting the best out of its human capital. Its people are superbly literate and numerate, but certain cultural traits are holding businesses back. Respect for seniority means that promotions go to the older, not the most able. Young executives with good ideas refrain from speaking up. Retiring presidents are kept on as chairmen or advisers, making it awkward for the new guy to undo his predecessor's mistakes. A rising executive at a big trading house says he was counselled by his seniors to keep his views hidden if he wanted to get on.

Japanese salarymen, who were once regarded as modern-day samurai, are today known as soshoku-danshi (wussy, unambitious "grass-eating men"). Since 2003, the proportion of young Japanese entering the labour force who want to be entrepreneurs has halved, to 14%, while those who seek lifetime employment has nearly doubled, to 57% (see chart 2). Bosses grouse that the young eschew overseas posts; even a foreign-ministry official confides that Japanese diplomats prefer to stay at home.

The herbivores are markedly less "globalised" than their elders. Since 2000 the number of Chinese and Indians studying in America has doubled, whereas the number of Japanese has dropped by a third, to a fraction of the other Asian countries' total. And despite years of mandatory English-language classes in secondary school, the Japanese score lowest among rich countries on English tests. This needn't be a problem, except that as an export-dependent economy, Japan's lifeblood is its relations with other countries, frets Takatoshi Ito, an economist at the University of Tokyo.

Half the nation's talent is squandered. Only 8% of managers are female, compared with around 40% in America and about 20% in China. There are more women on corporate boards in Kuwait than Tokyo. Women are paid 60-70% as much as their male counterparts. A manager at one of Japan's biggest conglomerates says that 70% of qualified job applicants are women, but fewer than 10% of new hires are, since the work may entail visits to factories or mines, where they might perspire in an unladylike way. Kirin, a brewer, seeks to double the number of its female managers by 2015—to a mere 6% of the total.

To get the economy moving, Japan Inc took a page from its industrial-policy playbook of yore. In June the trade ministry released a sweeping new "growth strategy" that identifies a score of vibrant sectors meriting government assistance, from overseas construction to attracting medical tourists. The project calls for hundreds of reforms, big and small. But the bureaucrats most intimately involved were shunted to other jobs in July, so who knows whether any will be implemented. Once again, the practices of old Japan scuttle the new. Richard Katz, editor of the Oriental Economist (no relation to us), believes Japan has trouble tackling its problems because they are all inter-related. "It is hard to fix one without fixing the others," he says.

The local news media have played down Japan's slip to third place. Alarmists fear that South Korea—which has a much smaller population—may overtake Japan, too. Is Japan willing to fight to keep its bronze medal for as long as possible?

Supporters say that the country always seems to shuffle its feet but then snaps into action when faced with a crisis. It did so in the 19th century, adopting modern ways to avoid being colonised, and again after the second world war. Japan was the world's second-largest economy for 40 years. But the traits that made it an economic powerhouse in the 20th century—easy capital, big companies, rote learning, management by mandarins and stable jobs for male breadwinners—are ill-suited to the 21st. Today, Japan's biggest obstacle is itself. Without dramatic reform, it will slip swiftly to number four, number five and beyond.

Business

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2010年8月18日

好文分享* 我为什么说股市反转了!



好文分享

 

发件人: Jingtao Du (ST)
发送时间: 2010年8月17日 20:28
收件人: S&T_D_Ins_Sales; S&T_D_Ins_Trading
主题: 我为什么说股市反转了!

 

我为什么说股市反转了

 

“强总”说我这次说股市反转了没有理论和逻辑依据，那就是说我有点“蒙”的成分啦。我还是有点郁闷，没有点底气，是不敢随便说反转的，市场中这么多牛人，我也不敢瞎蒙啊，呵呵。今天我就写写我是怎么看这个市场和怎么看反转的。

 

（咱销售主要靠脑子和嘴巴吃饭，整天忙来忙去，几乎没有时间去思考和写东西，这是缺陷；研究员要靠脑子，手和嘴巴吃饭，因为他们要把想法写出来，所以比我们多了一道工具，当然看起来就要比我们的活“高级”和“复杂”一些啦，不过倒霉的是要多费些力气了，谁让你要多用一道工具呢。这里随便调侃一下，没有任何对销售和研究员不敬之意）

 

从08年底判断A股反转走牛以后，就一直观察市场，查找A股牛市周期结束的迹象和征兆。以上证指数为代表的A股市场正式进入熊市的时间点是2009年8月4日，当天上证指数最高点3478点，自2008年A股见1664最低点以来运行了9个月多一点，指数的涨幅也在一倍以上。沪深300指数的走势几乎完全复制了上证综指的走势。其实地产股及地产指数是提前上证指数于2009年7月下旬见顶，随后见顶的行业指数为：金融09年8月初（银行，证券和保险几乎都在同一时间点见顶），汽车指数12月底，（电子指数，医药指数，农林指数）10年4月底等。

 

代表中小股票的指数见顶的时间也非常有时间梯度：深证成指09年12月8日，中证500指数和深圳综指10年4月13日，中小板综合指数（399101）10年4月23日，请大家注意：中小板综合指数已经在上升途中运行了18个月！

 

我最早是在2010年1月20日判断A股股市全面走熊，当时判断的主要依据是代表中小股票的中小板综合指数（399101）已经见顶，几乎所有的股票行情全部走完，股票不具有太大的投资价值，而应投资债券，给投资者首推了一个同庆A分级债券基金，不到半年该品种收益率6%；事实证明如果买入同庆A，然后在7月份后股市反转后再投资股票应该是不错的选择。

 

回头看：我对上证指数及沪深300指数的指数判断没有失误，而对中小板综合指数（399101）见顶的判断时间点提前了3个月。但事实上，如果要大批量出中小股票是需要一定提前时间量的。

 

如果这次A股真的全面反转，我们可以这样定义和描述A股的大致行情走势：代表权重股的上证指数及沪深300指数走了个标准的牛市和熊市，无论是周期还是幅度；但代表中小股票的中小板综合指数（399101）只是走了一个小小的“迷你熊”：自2010年4月23日见顶后，跌了2个半月至2010年7月2日最低点4893点，最大跌副为26%。以目前市场的走势，我想中小板综合指数（399101）创前期高点6625点应该是指日可待，目前只差前期高点200多点。所以中小板综合指数（399101）自2008年10月28日的低点1959点运行至今，整体还处在大级别牛市行情中，如果我们去看其周线图和月线图会感觉更明显。其实，有两个指数更能明显感觉和印证长期多头牛市：深证B指399108和批零指数399180，大家打开图形一看便知。其实如果大盘不是在7月2日见底反转，中小板综合指数（399101）也会走出“迷你熊”的走势，而是要继续熊的时间更长，幅度更大了！

 

我是2010年7月23日早上给我的主要客户投资和研究总监打电话表达自己认为市场已经反转的观点的，同时也彻底修正了自己前期认为股市底部大约在冬季的判断。我的主要判断和依据如下：

 

1．  中信银行在6月8日止跌，随后放量上涨，此市场信号已经引起我的警觉；

2．  部分地产股已经在7月2日大盘见底之前有先行见底的迹象，地产股经常是A股大盘的领先指标，同样需要引起警觉；

3．  7月22日A股尾盘大涨，随后香港农业银行大涨，此超级权重股，市场极不看好的品种也能大涨，需要空头仔细思考市场可能发生的变盘迹象；

4．  对外盘大跌等利空A股几乎已经不敏感了；

5．  ７月20日，中共中央召开党外人士经济形势座谈会，２２日中共中央政治局今天召开会议，紧接着财政部和央行都以不同形式对财政政策和货币政策进行了说明和解读。这两次会议的基调基本都是对前期过紧货币政策的修正，奠定了相对宽松货币政策的基调；此次政府出了一个“暗牌”，不同于08年底09年初当时货币政策全面而高调地放松那样的“明牌”，那时你可以all in (德州扑克全仓押注的一种方法)，但这次政府的信号对于空头需要引起足够重视；

6．  基金整体仓位还处在历史上的相对低位；

7．  主流股票的估值处于历史底部区域；

8．  市场的大部分投资者情绪悲观；

9．  市场中的股票开始活跃，赚钱效应显现和扩散；

10．              各种技术指标显示大盘有见底反转迹象，如：K线呈明显向上态势，短期均线向上穿越长期均线，MACD和KDJ有背离信号，交易量逐级放大等。

 

此次牛熊转换中新手和老手犯的错误：1）对政策的敏感度不够，上面提过了，这次出的不是明牌，当然很多人没有感觉和引起足够重视；2）坚定地认为中小股票估值过高，一定要这些股票跌透，市场才会见底或见大底，以前这种想法和经验可能适合A股，但这次真的不一样，所以很多人犯了教条和经验主义。

 

目前市场越来越多的人不认为A股还会创前期2319点的低点了，如果你也认同市场反转进入牛市，大家就根据自己的偏好去选股和作战了。牛市中，当然大部分股票都会涨，但大家还是希望找到能涨几倍的股票，那样的股票一定在中小盘中或中小市值中找,更多地去找成长股；当然还有最重要的是不要买入牛市中的熊股，毕竟目前市场中有很多涨幅很大，估值也很高的股票。

 

最后祝大家牛市发财！

 

 

杜 景 涛
Alex Jingtao Du
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销售交易部Sales & Trading Department
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