2012年8月13日

10 Chinese Brands You Must Know

10 Chinese Brands You Must Know

Beijing has begun to push consumption to kick-start its economy. Here's are tomorrow's big beneficiaries.

 

Shopping is still an unfamiliar pastime for the Chinese. Centuries of Confucianism emphasize the cultivation of virtue and ethics, not the creation of a snazzier wardrobe. Just a generation ago, Mao Zedong's Communist government outlawed personal property and purged the land of private possessions.

These days, however, Beijing would like nothing more than for 1.4 billion Chinese to shop until they drop -- or at least until its economy perks up. Having tripled China's gross domestic product over the past decade, the government now has pronounced that the country's heavy reliance on exports and investment for growth is "unstable, unbalanced, and unsustainable." Friday's disappointing Chinese trade numbers were just the latest evidence. Private consumption made up just 35% of GDP last year, down from 46% in 2000, and goosing domestic spending has taken on new urgency now that Europeans and Americans are no longer gobbling up goods churned out by China's factories. It's an unusual message from a communist regime: Materialism is the new patriotism.

As China tries to make consumption more conspicuous, Barron's decided to window-shop for 10 publicly traded domestic brands that stand to prosper. Make no mistake, many popular brands in China right now are foreign. General Motors (ticker: GM) sells more cars there than in the U.S., Apple's (AAPL) mobbed stores require security rivaling a U2 concert at Madison Square Garden, and Coca-Cola (KO) is as at home in China as anywhere. But as China's consumer class grows, the biggest beneficiaries will be its home-grown labels; by extension their stock prices should also do well over time. Consider Coke's 7,000% rise over roughly four decades or Apple's 5,000% gain in two.

By shorter-term valuation measures, the stocks of some of our Chinese picks aren't cheap (see table above) and, in a few cases, their immediate prospects are challenging. Some companies on our list are typical of an emerging economic power: Lenovo (992.Hong Kong), for example, is China's biggest computer maker, and Baidu (BIDU) is essentially China's Google (GOOG). Others are unique to Earth's most populous nation: Moutai(600519.China) makes a lethally strong liquor first mass-produced during the Qing dynasty in the 17th century, and today is the toast of choice for special occasions.Yunnan Baiyao (000538.China) produces traditional Chinese medicines that are finding their way into everything from toothpaste to tea.

Barron's Graphics

There couldn't be a better time for consumers to plunk down more yuan. China's economic growth has slowed to a three-year low near 7.6%, but it's strongly supported by 13% year-over-year growth in retail sales. Although the country's economy is the world's second-largest, per-capita income ranks just 92nd. Beijing desperately needs income and spending to increase, not just to rebalance its economy, but also to appease its citizens and stave off social unrest. To encourage people to spend more and save less for a rainy day, Beijing is expanding retirement pension coverage from 250 million of its people today to 350 million by 2015. Expect further tax reforms and consumer subsidies. "As part of the long-term agenda, we anticipate accelerated enhancement of social welfare, pension schemes, education, health care, and personal lending," says Joseph Tang, Invesco's Hong Kong-based investment director, who sees discretionary spending outpacing GDP for years to come.

China's relentless urbanization will induce more of its citizens to open their wallets. By 2020, about 850 million Chinese will live in urban areas, up from 650 million in 2010, says a McKinsey study. One in every five city-dwellers will be a first-generation migrant, and the range of goods catering to this urban sprawl makes brand choices a bigger individual statement. From Shanghai to Shenzhen, you are what you wear, where you shop, and what you drive.

In some cases, there's still time for a local champion to emerge. For instance, our list lacks domestic luxury fashion brands, since most Chinese labels don't yet have the rich history to lure fashionistas away from Chanel, Hermes, and Gucci. Women's fashion is similarly commoditized, with little consumer loyalty.Domestic food brands are growing fast but susceptible to food-safety flubs, from melamine in milk powder to exploding watermelons over-sprayed with growth chemicals. And while the Chinese are becoming zealous travelers, China's big three airlines haven't built much of a reputation�except for surly service and rubbery cuisine.

In most areas, however, we found our favorite. Here's our selection of China's 10 top brands (in alphabetical order):

Baidu

China's dominant Internet search engine controls 79% of its US$4 billion search market. Baidu -- whose name means "hundreds of times," and comes from a Song Dynasty poem about a man's search for an elusive beauty -- has benefited from Google's 2010 withdrawal from the mainland over a censorship spat with Beijing. But the brand also "owes its popularity to deep familiarity with the subtleties of Chinese language and culture," notes Millward Brown, a global brand research agency. The keystrokes to type requests in Mandarin are different from those for English. Baidu's grasp of the nuances of Asian-language search requests explains why it has also launched a Japanese search engine, its first outside China.

Baidu's next challenge: Cornering the newer, faster-growing market for mobile-device searches, where its share is just less than half. As a result, the stock currently trades at a much more attractive 27.7 times projected profit, well off the median of 54 times since its 2005 debut on Nasdaq.

China Mobile

The company has more than 683 million customers and the world's largest telecom network -- it even provided coverage from 21,325 feet when the Olympic torch traversed Mount Everest on its way to Beijing for the 2008 Summer Games. Its US$233 billion market cap is the second largest in Asia. But it's a behemoth at a crossroads. Its third-generation network is based on a standard used only in China, so it can't match the range of rival smartphones, including Apple's coveted iPhones. Subscriber growth is slowing, and new software on mobile devices is rapidly changing how people communicate.

Still, China Mobile (941.Hong Kong) has a massive war chest, including $48 billion in net cash, and is developing a quicker fourth-generation network. Americans tend to see their telecom providers as an annoyance to be endured, but in China, where news is state-controlled and information scarcer, the locals have a stronger attachment to their phones. For now, callers also can't switch providers easily without changing their phone numbers, which helps China Mobile hold on to customers.

The shares late in 2011 drew in respected value investors like AQR Capital Management's Cliff Asness and Dreman Value Management's David Dreman. The P/E ratio, at about 12, hasn't changed much since.

Great Wall Motor

Many Chinese would rather drive Audis, BMWs, or Mercedes-Benzes, but just 2% of the urban population has disposable annual household income of more than $34,000. The 82% who have between $6,000 and $16,000 care more about value.

Among local auto makers, Geely (175.Hong Kong) may have the more recognizable brand, since it makes passenger cars, including its charming hatchback, the "Panda." But Great Wall is China's leading SUV and truck maker and has a reputation for delivering good value. "I actually think Great Wall has a better quality perception in SUVs and trucks than Geely does in cars," says Earl Yen, portfolio manager of Shanghai-based CSV Capital Partners.

First-half results trumped estimates, with sales rising 29% and profit jumping 30%. Higher-margin SUVs drove 41% of sales, up from 33% a year ago. Car ownership in China is still low by global standards -- one for every 17 people -- and Great Wall is exporting more to Southeast Asia and the Middle East. No wonder shares (2333.Hong Kong) are up 49% this year, leaving other Hong Kong-listed stocks in its rear-view mirror.

Haier

For a household name, Haier is a bit of a mystery. It's the world's biggest appliance brand and owns 8% of the global market for white goods. Its Hong Kong-listed unit, Haier Electronics (1169.Hong Kong), is China's biggest maker of washing machines and heaters, while Shanghai-listed Qingdao Haier (600690.China) makes air conditioners and refrigerators. Yet analysts can't pinpoint the value of the state-owned parent, a collective belonging to employees (who do not receive dividends or know exactly what they own).

Even so, the brand -- Haier comes from the Chinese pronunciation of Liebherr Group, an early German partner -- is based on its range of products -- everything from robots to walk-in wine coolers -- and attentive after-sales service. Factory locations stretch from Southeast Asia to South Carolina. A network of more than 7,000 mainland stores helps sell Haier and third-party appliances in small cities and rural areas. Management's boast: it can deliver anything within 200 kilometers (124 miles) of its stores in 24 hours.

Such a reputation comes at a premium. Haier Electronics, for instance, fetches 10.6 times 2012 profit, above 7.7 times for its peers. Yet a government "Home Appliances to the Countryside" program that subsidizes purchases will expire in January 2013 and may have pulled sales into 2012. The soft housing market also is a flashing yellow light.

Lenovo

Some time in 2012 Lenovo should overtake Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) as the world's biggest personal-computer producer. The Beijing outfit, which bought IBM's (IBM) ThinkPad business in 2005, already sells one in three PCs in China, and its share of global PC sales jumped to 14% from 10% in 2011. An amazing 93% of its $30 billion annual revenue comes from computers, but it's starting to make other gadgets, too.

Shares of the future No. 1 trade at 14 times fiscal 2013 profit, versus peers' 9-10 times. But the stock has skidded 20% since early May as year-over-year growth in Chinese PC demand slowed from double digits to 5%.

Count on a 2013 recovery, however, as Chinese broadband service becomes more widespread and affordable, and as PC makers unveil new products. Internet penetration -- a proxy for computer use -- also remains low in China at about 36%, compared with nearly 80% in the U.S., and Lenovo's familiar name will give it an edge in winning over newer rural customers.

Great Wall SUV: Nelson Ching / Bloomberg News; Li Ning: Trevor Jones / Getty Images; Moutai: Imagechina / Corbis

Branded: (Clockwise from left) Tsingtao beer, Great Wall SUV, Li Ning's founder, and Henry Kissinger's favorite, Moutai

Li Ning

When China went to her maiden Olympics in 1984, millions watched on TV as the gymnast Li Ning won six medals, including three golds, to become the country's most decorated athlete. The "prince of gymnastics" put his fame to shrewd use, and today Li Ning is China's second most recognized sporting-goods brand, after Nike (NKE).

Now, however, the respected brand is in danger of getting left off the medals podium. It over-expanded after the 2008 Beijing Olympics (when its founder was airlifted into the opening ceremony to light the Olympic cauldron). Net income surged 52% in 2008, but by 2011, inventories had piled up just as Chinese shoppers were turning to cheaper Western brands. Profit plunged 65% last year, and shares (2331.Hong Kong) today are 4.68 Hong Kong dollars (US$0.60), down from HK$31 in mid-2010.

Management's task: To bring its apparel and equipment to market more quickly and cheaply, shift from the crowded casual wear segment toward higher-margin "performance gear" made of more sophisticated material, and appeal to younger people. Li Ning now sponsors the Chinese Basketball Association and is revamping with capital from private-equity firm TPG. Profit forecasts still look high, says Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Lin, but "the company has strong brand equity, boding well for top-line gains and margin growth in the long term."

Moutai

Declared a national drink in 1951, centuries-old moutai is a clear, yellowish liquor fermented from sorghum. It's drunk in vast quantities as shots -- "gan bei," or bottoms up! -- and the knockout alcoholic level (as high as 53% of volume, versus about 12% for red wine) makes you forget it smells like soy sauce. No wonder Henry Kissinger once told Deng Xiaoping: "If we drink enough Moutai, we can solve anything."

Kweichow Moutai, the state-owned giant that makes its namesake liquors, saw profit jump 74% in 2011 to $1.4 billion. Revenue expanded 58%. There is some worry that Beijing's push to stamp out bribes and tighten its entertainment budget could cut into Moutai's exuberant sales.

The company is opening more self-operated stores to better control its distribution and fight counterfeiting. Its Shanghai-listed shares trade near an all-time high and fetch 19 times 2012 profit, above 18.6 times for Diageo and about 16 times for global-liquor companies. Still, Credit Suisse says Moutai deserves the top-shelf premium and makes it the No. 1 pick among Chinese white spirits.

Tencent

When reigning badminton world champion Yu Yang was disqualified from the London Olympics for tanking a match, she quit her sport in modern Chinese fashion: She announced her retirement -- "Bye bye, my beloved badminton" -- on her Tencent microblog.

In a country where news is scrubbed by Beijing and large gatherings frowned upon, Tencent―China's biggest and most diversified Internet company -- has become the people's public square. Tencent has the world's largest customer base: 721 million registered users for its instant messaging service, 552 million social-networking users, and 373 million micro-bloggers like Yu Yang. Nearly 72% of revenue comes from an Internet services unit dominated by a maturing online games platform, so Tencent has expanded into other areas, like faster-growing e-commerce, online advertising, and mobile services by providing ringtones and text messages.

"Tencent has so far been the most successful company at monetizing its user base," says Invesco's Tang. Revenue grew 45% last year to $4.5 billion, while operating profit rose 25%. Shares (700.Hong Kong) are up 54% this year and aren't cheap at 27 times 2012 profit, versus 16 times for global Internet stocks and 15 times for Google. But that's a vote of confidence that Tencent will stay ahead of China's maturing Internet boom.

Tsingtao Brewery

The average Chinese drinks less than half the beer consumed by an American, and just a third of that guzzled by a German. Yet China's vast population makes it by far the world's biggest beer market. China Resources Enterprise (291.Hong Kong) may have a 22% market share from peddling cheap beers. But it's the No. 2 volume leader, Tsingtao (market share: 14%), that has the older, more famous brand -- and the coveted toehold in the faster-growing premium aisle.

Tsingtao is a Chinese beer with German grandparents. Founded in 1903 by Anglo-German settlers, it was reportedly brewed to strict German standards and with mineral water from China's Laoshan Spring. Even today, that hoppy Pilsner taste helps it wash down quickly and easily.

Chinese beer consumption climbed 5% last year, but Tsingtao's volume grew 13% while profit increased 14%. Grain costs are a concern, but brewers can raise prices, and at about $0.80 a liter, average selling prices of beer in China are still low compared with the global average of $2.20. No wonder Japanese breweries are circling, with Asahi taking a 20% stake and Suntory forming a joint venture with Tsingtao. The stock (168.Hong Kong) trades at a full-bodied 25 times profit.

Yunnan Baiyao

Legend has it that Yunnan Baiyao, which means "white medicine from Yunnan province," was concocted in 1902 by a man who scoured the countryside, testing bushels of herbs. From ginseng and other astringent roots he made a white powder widely used to stem bleeding when China fought Japan during World War II. After he died, his widow handed the secret formula to the government.

But just how do you sell traditional Chinese medicine in the 21st century? The state-owned company began putting it in capsules, bandages, skin creams and beverages. After a five-year push, the brand has snagged 10% of China's toothpaste market, and is now targeting the bigger shampoo and pharma-cosmetics segment.

From 2006 to 2011, sales more than tripled to $1.8 billion, while profit quadrupled. Raw-material inflation bears watching, and margins could fall as Yunnan competes in the crowded hair-care sector. But Morgan Stanley sees revenue growing 14% in 2012 and profit rising 24%. The stock reflects its recent success, trading at 28 times earnings.

These are high expectations, but pressure is a privilege all big brands must embrace. 

E-mail: editors@barrons.com

 

2012年6月29日

Xi Jinping Millionaire Relations Reveal Fortunes Of Elite

Xi Jinping, the man in line to be China's next president, warned
officials on a 2004 anti-graft conference call: "Rein in your spouses,
children, relatives, friends and staff, and vow not to use power for
personal gain."
As Xi climbed the Communist Party ranks, his extended family expanded
their business interests to include minerals, real estate and
mobile-phone equipment, according to public documents compiled by
Bloomberg.
Enlarge image
Xi Jinping, vice president of China, visits the China Shipping
terminal at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S.,
on Thursday, Feb. 16, 2012. Source: Bloomberg
Enlarge image
The Belleview Drive property is viewed along with other residential
buildings in Repulse Bay, Hong Kong. Source: Bloomberg
Enlarge image
The Belleview Drive property, bottom second right, is viewed along
with other residential buildings in Repulse Bay, Hong Kong. Source:
Bloomberg
Enlarge image
The entrance to the Belleview Drive property is seen in Repulse Bay,
Hong Kong. Source: Bloomberg
Enlarge image
A screen grab from the website www.1921.org.cn shows Xi Zhongxun's
family photograph taken in 2000. Front, from left: daughter Xi
Qianping, wife Qi Xin, grandson Mingzheng, Xi Zhongxun, daughter Qi
Qiaoqiao. Second row, from left: grandson Zannong, son-in-law Wu Long,
daughter Qi An'an, son Xi Jinping, son Xi Yuanping, son-in-law Deng
Jiagui, grandson Dongdong. Source: www.1921.org.cn via Bloomberg
Enlarge image
Qi Qiaoqiao leads Tsinghua University EMBA students in a drum
performance on Sept 18, 2010. Source: Imaginechina
Enlarge image
Hiu Ng, center, attends the Boao Forum for Asia Conference 2011,
'Young Leaders Roundtable: Charting Growth - Include the Excluded', in
Hainan, China, on April 14, 2011. Source: Imaginechina
Enlarge image
Daniel Foa, founder of 51Sim, right, and Chinese actress Li Bingbing
at the Sustainable Innovation Student Competition in Beijing, China,
on Nov. 2, 2009. Source: Imaginechina
Enlarge image
A screen grab shows the website of New Postcom Equipment Co. Source:
www.newpostcom.com via Bloomberg
Enlarge image
A screen grab shows the website of Hiconics Drive Technology Co.
Source: www.hiconics.com via Bloomberg
Those interests include investments in companies with total assets of
$376 million; an 18 percent indirect stake in a rare- earths company
with $1.73 billion in assets; and a $20.2 million holding in a
publicly traded technology company. The figures don't account for
liabilities and thus don't reflect the family's net worth.
No assets were traced to Xi, who turns 59 this month; his wife Peng
Liyuan, 49, a famous People's Liberation Army singer; or their
daughter, the documents show. There is no indication Xi intervened to
advance his relatives' business transactions, or of any wrongdoing by
Xi or his extended family.
While the investments are obscured from public view by multiple
holding companies, government restrictions on access to company
documents and in some cases online censorship, they are identified in
thousands of pages of regulatory filings.
The trail also leads to a hillside villa overlooking the South China
Sea in Hong Kong, with an estimated value of $31.5 million. The
doorbell ringer dangles from its wires, and neighbors say the house
has been empty for years. The family owns at least six other Hong Kong
properties with a combined estimated value of $24.1 million.
Standing Committee
Xi has risen through the party over the past three decades, holding
leadership positions in several provinces and joining the ruling
Politburo Standing Committee in 2007. Along the way, he built a
reputation for clean government.
He led an anti-graft campaign in the rich coastal province of
Zhejiang, where he issued the "rein in" warning to officials in 2004,
according to a People's Daily publication. In Shanghai, he was brought
in as party chief after a 3.7 billion- yuan ($582 million) scandal.
A 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing cited an acquaintance of
Xi's saying he wasn't corrupt or driven by money. Xi was "repulsed by
the all-encompassing commercialization of Chinese society, with its
attendant nouveau riche, official corruption, loss of values, dignity,
and self- respect," the cable disclosed by Wikileaks said, citing the
friend. Wikileaks publishes secret government documents online.
A U.S. government spokesman declined to comment on the document.
Carving Economy
Increasing resentment over China's most powerful families carving up
the spoils of economic growth poses a challenge for the Communist
Party. The income gap in urban China has widened more than in any
other country in Asia over the past 20 years, according to the
International Monetary Fund.
"The average Chinese person gets angry when he hears about deals where
people make hundreds of millions, or even billions of dollars, by
trading on political influence," said Barry Naughton, professor of
Chinese economy at the University of California, San Diego, who wasn't
referring to the Xi family specifically.
Scrutiny of officials' wealth is intensifying before a
once-in-a-decade transition of power later this year, when Xi and the
next generation of leaders are set to be promoted. The ouster in March
of Bo Xilai as party chief of China's biggest municipality in an
alleged graft and murder scandal fueled public anger over cronyism and
corruption. It also spurred demands that top officials disclose their
wealth in editorials in two Chinese financial publications and from
microbloggers. Bo's family accumulated at least $136 million in
assets, Bloomberg News reported in April.
Revolutionary Leader
Xi and his siblings are the children of the late Xi Zhongxun, a
revolutionary fighter who helped Mao Zedong win control of China in
1949 with a pledge to end centuries of inequality and abuse of power
for personal gain. That makes them "princelings," scions of top
officials and party figures whose lineages can help them wield
influence in politics and business.
Most of the extended Xi family's assets traced by Bloomberg were owned
by Xi's older sister,Qi Qiaoqiao, 63; her husband Deng Jiagui, 61; and
Qi's daughter Zhang Yannan, 33, according to public records compiled
by Bloomberg.
Deng held an indirect 18 percent stake as recently as June 8 in
Jiangxi Rare Earth & Rare Metals Tungsten Group Corp. Prices of the
minerals used in wind turbines and U.S. smart bombs have surged as
China tightened supply.
Yuanwei Group
Qi and Deng's share of the assets of Shenzhen Yuanwei Investment Co.,
a real-estate and diversified holding company, totaled 1.83 billion
yuan ($288 million), a December 2011 filing shows. Other companies in
the Yuanwei group wholly owned by the couple have combined assets of
at least 539.3 million yuan ($84.8 million).
A 3.17 million-yuan investment by Zhang in Beijing-based Hiconics
Drive Technology Co. (300048) has increased 40-fold since 2009 to
128.4 million yuan ($20.2 million) as of yesterday's close in
Shenzhen.
Deng, reached on his mobile phone, said he was retired. When asked
about his wife, Zhang and their businesses across the country, he
said: "It's not convenient for me to talk to you about this too much."
Attempts to reach Qi and Zhang directly or through their companies by
phone and fax, as well as visits to addresses found on filings, were
unsuccessful.
New Postcom
Another brother-in-law of Xi Jinping, Wu Long, ran a
telecommunications company named New Postcom Equipment Co. The company
was owned as of May 28 by relatives three times removed from Wu -- the
family of his younger brother's wife, according to public documents
and an interview with one of the company's registered owners.
New Postcom won hundreds of millions of yuan in contracts from
state-owned China Mobile Communications Corp., the world's biggest
phone company by number of users, according to analysts at BDA China
Ltd., a Beijing-based consulting firm that advises technology
companies.
Dozens of people contacted over the past two months wouldn't comment
about the Xi family on the record because of the sensitivity of the
issue. Details from Web pages profiling one of Xi Jinping's nieces and
her British husband were deleted after the two people were contacted.
The total assets of companies owned by the Xi family gives the breadth
of their businesses and isn't an indication of profitability. Hong
Kong property values were based on recent transactions involving
comparable homes.
Identity Cards
Bloomberg's accounting included only assets, property and
shareholdings in which there was documentation of ownership by a
family member and an amount could be clearly assigned. Assets were
traced using public and business records, interviews with
acquaintances and Hong Kong and Chinese identity-card numbers.
In cases where family members use different names in mainland China
and in Hong Kong, Bloomberg verified identities by speaking to people
who had met them and through multiple company documents that show the
same names together and shared addresses.
Bloomberg provided a list showing the Xi family's holdings to China's
Foreign Ministry. The government declined to comment.
In October 2000, Xi Zhongxun's family gathered on his 87th birthday
for a photograph at a state guest house in Shenzhen, two years before
the patriarch's death. The southern metropolis bordering Hong Kong is
now one of China's richest, thanks in part to the elder Xi. He
persuaded former leader Deng Xiaoping to pioneer China's experiment
with open markets in what was a fishing village.
Family Photo
In the photo, Xi Zhongxun, dressed in a red sweater and holding a
cane, is seated in an overstuffed armchair. To his left sits daughter
Qi Qiaoqiao. On his right, a young grandson perches on doily-covered
armrests next to the elder Xi's wife, Qi Xin. Lined up behind are
Qiaoqiao's husband, Deng Jiagui; her brothers Xi Yuanping and
presidential heir Xi Jinping; and sister Qi An'an alongside her
husband Wu Long.
Xi Zhongxun worked to imbue his children with the revolutionary
spirit, according to accounts in state media that portray him as a
principled and moral leader. Family members have recounted in
interviews how he dressed them in patched hand-me-downs.
He also made Qiaoqiao turn down her top-choice middle school in
Beijing, which offered her a slot despite her falling half a point
short of the required grade, according to a memorial book about him.
Instead, she attended another school under her mother's family name,
Qi, so classmates wouldn't know her background. Qiaoqiao and her
sister An'an also sometimes use their father's family name, Xi.
Party School
In a speech on March 1 this year before about 2,200 cadres at the
central party school in Beijing where members are trained, Xi Jinping
said that some were joining because they believed it was a ticket to
wealth. "It is more difficult, yet more vital than ever to keep the
party pure," he said, according to a transcript of his speech in an
official magazine.
His daughter, Xi Mingze, has avoided the spotlight. She studies at
Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, under an assumed name.
Xi's elevation to replace Hu Jintao as China's top leader isn't yet
formalized. He must be picked as the Communist Party's general
secretary in a meeting later this year and then be selected by the
country's legislature as president next March.
Deng Xiaoping
Disgruntlement over how members of the ruling elite translate
political power into personal fortunes has existed since Deng
Xiaoping's economic reforms began three decades ago, when he said some
people could get rich first and help others get wealthy later.
The relatives of other top officials have forged business careers.
Premier Wen Jiabao's son co-founded a private-equity company. The son
of Wen's predecessor, Zhu Rongji, heads a Chinese investment bank.
"What I'm really concerned about is the alliance between the rich and
powerful," said Wan Guanghua, principal economist at the Asian
Development Bank. "It makes corruption and inequality self-reinforcing
and persistent."
Public criticism is mounting against ostentatious displays of wealth
by officials. Microbloggers tracking designer labels sported by cadres
expressed disgust last year at a gold Rolex watch worn by a former
customs minister. They castigated the daughter of former Premier Li
Peng for wearing a pink Emilio Pucci suit to the nation's annual
legislative meeting this March. Some complained that the 12,000 yuan
they said it cost would pay for warm clothes for 200 poor children.
'Unequal Access'
"People are angry because there's unequal access to money- making, and
the rewards that get reaped appear to the populace to be undeserved,"
said Perry Link, a China scholar at the University of California,
Riverside. "There's no question in the Chinese public mind that this
is wrong."
Premier Wen told a meeting of China's State Council on March 26 that
power must be exercised "under the sun" to combat corruption.
While officials in China must report their income and assets to
authorities, as well as personal information about their immediate
family, the disclosures aren't public.
The lack of transparency fuels a belief that the route to wealth
depends on what Chinese call "guanxi," a catch-all word for the
connections considered crucial for doing business in the country. It
helps explain why princelings with no official posts wield influence.
Or, as a Chinese proverb puts it: When a man gets power, even his
chickens and dogs rise to heaven.
'Bigwig Relative'
"If you are a sibling of someone who is very important in China,
automatically people will see you as a potential agent of influence
and will treat you well in the hope of gaining guanxi with the bigwig
relative," said Roderick MacFarquhar, a professor of government at
Harvard who focuses on Chinese elite politics.
The link between political power and wealth isn't unique to China.
Lyndon B. Johnson was so poor starting out in life that he borrowed
$75 to enroll in Southwest Texas State Teachers College in 1927,
according to his presidential library. After almost three decades of
elective office, he and his family had media and real-estate holdings
worth $14 million in 1964, his first full year as president, according
to an August 1964 article in Life Magazine.
Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the
Asia Society in New York, said the nexus of power and wealth can be
found in any country. "But there is no country where this is more true
than China," he said. "There's a huge passive advantage to just being
in one of these family trees."
Unfair to Xi
Yao Jianfu, a retired government researcher who has called for greater
disclosure of assets by leaders, said it wouldn't be right to tie Xi
Jinping to the businesses of his family.
"If other members of the family are independent business
representatives, I think it's unfair to describe it as a family clan
and count it as Xi Jinping's," Yao said in a telephone interview.
The lineage of Xi's siblings hasn't always been an advantage. Xi
Zhongxun, the father, was purged by Mao in 1962. Like many other
princelings, the children were scattered to the countryside during the
Cultural Revolution. The 5-yuan payment Qiaoqiao received for working
in a corps with 500 other youths in Inner Mongolia made her feel rich,
she recalled in an interview on the website of Beijing-based Tsinghua
University.
After Mao's death in 1976, the family was rehabilitated and Xi's
sister Qiaoqiao pursued a career with the military and as a director
with the People's Armed Police. She resigned to care for her father,
who had retired in 1990, Qiaoqiao said in the Tsinghua interview.
Property Purchase
A year later, she bought an apartment in what was then the British
colony of Hong Kong for HK$3 million ($387,000) -- at the time,
equivalent to almost 900 times the average Chinese worker's annual
salary. She still owns the property, in the Pacific Palisades complex
in Braemar Hill on Hong Kong island, land registry records show.
By 1997, Qi and Deng had recorded an investment of 15.3 million yuan
in a company that later became Shenzhen Yuanwei Industries Co., a
holding group, documents show. The assets of that company aren't
publicly available. However, one of its subsidiaries, Shenzhen Yuanwei
Investment, had assets of 1.85 billion yuan ($291 million) at the end
of 2010. It is 99 percent owned by the couple, according to a December
2011 filing by a securities firm.
It was after her father's death in 2002 that Qi said she decided to go
into business, according to the Tsinghua interview. She graduated from
Tsinghua's executive master's degree in business administration
program in 2006 and founded its folk-drumming team. It plays in the
style of Shaanxi province, where Xi Zhongxun was born.
Paper Trail
The names Qi Qiaoqiao, Deng Jiagui or Zhang Yannan appear on the
filings of at least 25 companies over the past two decades in China
and Hong Kong, either as shareholders, directors or legal
representatives -- a term that denotes the person responsible for a
company, such as its chairman.
In some filings, Qi used the name Chai Lin-hing. The alias was linked
to her because of biographical details in a Chinese company document
that match those in two published interviews with Qi Qiaoqiao. Chai
Lin-hing has owned multiple companies and a property in Hong Kong with
Deng Jiagui.
In 2005, Zhang Yannan started appearing on Hong Kong documents, when
Qi and Deng transferred to her 99.98 percent of a property-holding
company that owns one apartment, a unit in the Regent on the Park
development with an estimated value of HK$54 million ($6.96 million).
Repulse Bay Villa
Land registry records show Zhang paid HK$150 million ($19 million) in
2009 for the villa on Belleview Drive in Repulse Bay, one of Hong
Kong's most exclusive neighborhoods. Property prices have since jumped
about 60 percent in the area.
Her Hong Kong identity card number, written on one of the sale
documents, matches that found on the company she owns with her mother
and Deng Jiagui, Special Joy Investments Ltd. All three people share
the same Hong Kong address in a May 12 filing.
Zhang owns four other luxury units in the Convention Plaza Apartments
residential tower with panoramic harbor views adjoining the Grand
Hyatt hotel.
Since its 1997 return by Britain to Chinese rule, Hong Kong has been
governed autonomously, with its own legal and banking systems. About a
third of all purchases of new luxury homes in the territory are by
mainland Chinese buyers, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
In mainland China, Qi and Deng's marquee project is a luxury housing
complex called Guanyuan near Beijing's financial district, boasting
manicured gardens and a gray-brick exterior reminiscent of the city's
historic courtyard homes. Financial details on the developer aren't
available because of restrictions on company searches in Beijing.
Beijing Complex
To finance the development, the couple borrowed from friends and
banks, and aimed to attract officials and executives at state-owned
companies, they told V Marketing China magazine in a 2006 interview.
Property prices in the capital rose 79 percent in the following four
years, government data show.
The site's developer -- 70 percent owned by Qi and Deng's Yuanwei
Investment -- acquired more than 10,000 square meters of land for 95.6
million yuan in 2004 to build Guanyuan, according to the Beijing
Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources.
A 189-square-meter (2,034-square-foot) three-bedroom apartment in
Guanyuan listed online in June for 15 million yuan. One square meter
sells for 79,365 yuan -- more than double China's annual per capita
gross domestic product.
Public anger at soaring housing costs has made real estate an
especially sensitive issue for leaders in China. Property prices were
"far from a reasonable level," Premier Wen said in March.
'Playing Field'
The lack of a level playing field and unaffordable home prices mean
"you can be cut out of the China dream," said Joseph Fewsmith,
director of the Center for the Study of Asia at Boston University, who
focuses on Chinese politics. "Is the rise of China going to last if
you build it around these sorts of unequal opportunities?"
Those with the right connections are able to gain access to assets
that are controlled by the government, according to Bo Zhiyue, a
senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East
Asian Institute.
"All they need is to get into the game one small step ahead of the
others and they can make a huge gain," he said. Bo wasn't discussing
the specific investments of Xi's family members.
One of Deng's well-timed acquisitions was in a state-owned company
with investments in rare-earth metals.
Rare Earths
Deng's Shanghai Wangchao Investment Co. bought a 30 percent stake in
Jiangxi Rare Earth for 450 million yuan ($71 million) in 2008,
according to a bond prospectus.
Deng owned 60 percent of Shanghai Wangchao. A copy of Deng's Chinese
identity card found in company registry documents matches one found in
filings of a Yuanwei subsidiary. Yuanwei group-linked executives held
the posts of vice chairman and chief financial officer in Jiangxi Rare
Earth, the filings show.
The investment came as China, which has a near monopoly on production
of the metals, was tightening control over production and exports, a
policy that led to a more than fourfold surge in prices for some rare
earths in 2011.
A woman who answered the phone at Jiangxi Rare Earth's head office in
Nanchang said she was unable to provide financial information because
the company wasn't listed on the stock exchange. She declined to
discuss Shanghai Wangchao's investment, saying it was too sensitive.
Hiconics Drive
Qi Qiaoqiao's daughter Zhang made her 3.17 million-yuan investment in
Hiconics in the three years before the Beijing- based manufacturer of
electronic devices sold shares to the public in 2010. Hiconics founder
Liu Jincheng was in the same executive MBA class as Qi Qiaoqiao,
according to his profile on Tsinghua's website.
Wang Dong, the company's board secretary, didn't respond to faxed
questions or phone calls seeking comment.
The business interests of Qi and Deng may be more extensive still: The
names appear as the legal representative of at least 11 companies in
Beijing and Shenzhen, cities where restrictions on access to filings
make it difficult to determine ownership of companies or asset values.
Dalian Wanda
For example, Deng was the legal representative of a Beijing-based
company that bought a 0.8 percent stake in one of China's biggest
developers, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co., for 30 million
yuan in a 2009 private placement. Dalian Wanda Commercial had sales of
95.3 billion yuan ($15 billion) last year.
Dalian Wanda Commercial "doesn't comment on private transactions," it
said in an e-mailed statement.
Deng also served as legal representative of a company that won a
government contract to help build a 1 billion-yuan ($157 million)
bridge in central China's Hubei province, according to an official
website and corporate records.
Complex ownership structures are common in China, according to Victor
Shih, a professor at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois,
who studies the link between finance and politics in the country.
Princelings engage people they trust, often members of their extended
families, to open companies on their behalf that bid for contracts
from state-owned enterprises, said Shih, who wasn't referring
specifically to Xi's family.
New Postcom
In the case of Xi Jinping's brother-in-law, Wu Long, he's identified
as chairman of New Postcom in two reports on the website of the
Guangzhou Development District, one in 2009 and the other a year
later.
New Postcom doesn't provide a list of management on its website.
Searches in Chinese on Baidu Inc.'s search engine using the name "Wu
Long" and "New Postcom" trigger a warning, also in Chinese: "The
search results may not be in accordance with relevant laws,
regulations and policies, and cannot display."
New Postcom is owned by two people named Geng Minhua and Hua Feng,
filings show. Their address in the company documents leads to the
ninth floor of a decades-old concrete tower in Beijing where Geng's
elderly mother lives. Tacked to the wall of her living room was the
mobile-phone number of her daughter.
When contacted by phone June 6, Geng confirmed she owned New Postcom
with her son Hua Feng -- and that her daughter was married to Wu Ming,
Wu Long's younger brother. Geng said Wu Long headed the company and
she wasn't involved in the management.
Different Owners
New Postcom identified two different people -- Hong Ying and Ma
Wenbiao -- as its owners in a six-page, June 27 statement and said the
head of the company was a person named Liu Ran. The company didn't
respond to repeated requests to explain the discrepancies. Wu Long and
his wife, Qi An'an, couldn't be reached for comment.
New Postcom was an upstart company that benefited from state
contracts. It specialized in the government-mandated home- grown 3G
mobile-phone standard deployed by China Mobile. In 2007, it won a
share of a tender to supply handsets, beating out more established
competitors such as Motorola Inc., according to BDA China.
"They were an unknown that suddenly appeared," said Duncan Clark,
chairman of BDA. "People were expecting Motorola to get a big part of
that device contract, and then a no-name company just appeared at the
top of the list."
In 2007, the domestic mobile standard was still being developed, and
many of the bigger players were sitting on the sidelines, allowing New
Postcom a bigger share of the market, the company said in the
statement.
Xi Yuanping
William Moss, the Beijing-based spokesman of the Motorola Mobility
unit that was split off from Motorola last year and purchased by
Google Inc. (GOOG), declined to comment on details of any individual
bids. China Mobile "has always insisted on the principle of open,
fair, just and credible bidding" to select vendors, company spokesman
Zhang Xuan said by e-mail.
Xi Jinping's younger brother, Xi Yuanping, is the founding chairman of
an energy advisory body called the International Energy Conservation
Environmental Protection Association. He doesn't play an active role
in the organization, according to an employee who declined to be
identified.
One of Xi's nieces has a higher profile. Hiu Ng, the daughter of Qi
An'an and Wu Long, and her husband Daniel Foa, 35, last year were
listed as speakers at a networking symposium in the Maldives on
sustainable tourism with the likes of the U.K. billionaire Richard
Branson and the actress Daryl Hannah.
Hudson Clean Energy
Ng recently began working with Hudson Clean Energy Partners LP, which
manages a fund of more than $1 billion in the U.S., to help identify
investments in China.
Details about the couple were removed from Internet profiles after
Bloomberg reporters contacted them. Foa said by phone he couldn't
comment about FairKlima Capital, a clean- energy fund they set up in
2007. Ng didn't respond to e-mails asking for an interview.
The two are no longer mentioned on the FairKlima website. A June 3
cache of the "Contact Us" webpage includes short biographies of Ng and
Foa under the headline "Senior Management Team."
A reference on Ng's LinkedIn profile that said on June 8 that she
worked at New Postcom has since been removed, along with her
designation as "Vice Chair Hudson Clean Energy Partners China."
Neil Auerbach, the Teaneck, New Jersey-based private-equity firm's
founder, said he was working with Ng because of her longstanding
passion for sustainability.
"We are aware of her political connections, but her focus is on
sustainable investing, and that's the purpose," he said in a June 13
interview. "We're delighted to be working with her."
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Michael Forsythe in
Beijing at mforsythe@bloomberg.net; Shai Oster in Hong Kong at
soster@bloomberg.net; Natasha Khan in Hong Kong at
nkhan51@bloomberg.net; Dune Lawrence in New York at
dlawrence6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Amanda Bennett at
abennett6@bloomberg.net; Peter Hirschberg at
phirschberg@bloomberg.net; Ben Richardson at
brichardson8@bloomberg.net

2012年5月14日

What happens when people can pick their own price for a product

What happens when people can pick their own price for a product
买主若能随意定价,将会怎样


EARLY in the study of economics, students are introduced to Homo economicus, a rough caricature of a human being with an eye to extracting the maximum personal advantage from any given situation. In the real world, of course, human behaviour is much more complicated than that. One example is a pricing strategy called "pay what you want", in which customers are allowed to choose any price—even zero—for a good. Despite the obvious benefit of getting something for nothing, many people nevertheless choose to pay. The model hit the news in 2007 when Radiohead, a British band, released their album "In Rainbows" on the internet with just such a pricing arrangement.
在经济学的早期学习中,"经济人"这一概念被引介给学生,用以讽刺人们处处鹯视狼顾,贪图个人利益的最大化。然而,人们在现实世界中的行为可比这复杂得多了。比方说,一种"随你付"的定价策略允许顾客为商品随意出价,甚至可以不掏钱。虽说明摆着,这种定价策略可以让人们白拿东西,很多人还是会付钱。这种模式在2007年被曝光。当时,英国的电台司令乐队在互联网上发布的专辑《彩虹中》就采用了这一定价安排。

A team of researchers led by Ayelet Gneezy at the University of California's Rady School of Management has now published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that makes some suggestions about the psychological underpinnings of this generosity. They finger the ego—in particular, a desire to think of yourself as a good person. And they find that allowing people to name their own price may result in fewer sales than the old-fashioned approach of simply setting a single price for everybody.
由加州大学雷迪管理学院的艾莱特•格尼茨领衔的一组研究人员最近在美国《国家科学院院刊》上撰文试图揭示这种慷慨行为背后的心理学依据。他们将研究结果指向人的自尊心,尤其是把自我视为一个好人的渴望。研究人员还发现,与传统的对所有人采用统一标价的方法相比,允许人们随意出价的方式可能导致销量的下滑。

The researchers ran three experiments. The first involved more than 53,000 customers of a theme park, who were photographed while riding a rollercoaster. In one iteration of the experiment, customers were offered the chance to buy the photo for a price of their own choosing. In the second run, they were offered the same deal, except that half their suggested price would be donated to a children's charity.
研究人员进行了三个试验。
第一个实验牵涉到一个主题公园内的53000多名游客,他们玩过山车的场景被拍成了照片。一组该试验的游客可以自定价格来购买这些照片。另一组的游客同样可以自定价格,区别在于他们出价的一半将会捐给一个儿童慈善机构

The researchers noted two big effects. The average price suggested by those in the group benefiting the charity was over five times as high as that suggested by the first group. At the same time, only half as many people in the second group wanted to buy a photo. The researchers argue that the two results are linked: because the "right" price for the charity-and-photo combination was felt to be so much higher, a significant number of people preferred not to buy at all than to damage their self-image by offering a miserly price, and, by extension, a tight-fisted donation to a deserving cause.
研究人员注意到两个重要的实验结果。支援慈善一组的平均出价是第一组的5倍多。同时,第二组中仅有半数的顾客愿意购买相片。研究人员认为这两个试验结果息息相关:一旦将慈善和照片联系到一块儿,人们心中的合理出价就被大大提升,以至于很多人害怕出价太低伤面子而不买相片。这就好比向一家有广阔发展前景的事业捐款,少捐不如不捐。

The second experiment confirmed the first. Passengers on a boat trip were photographed and then offered the chance to buy the photos. This time Dr Gneezy and his colleagues controlled their subjects' expectations more directly. For one group, the price was set at $15, for another it was $5, and the third were allowed to name their own price. All three groups were told that the normal price was $15. As expected, demand for photos rose when the price dropped from $15 to $5. But it fell again when people could pick their price. Again the researchers suggest that an overly low price can feel unpleasantly parsimonious. In contrast, "when the company sets the price at $5, there is no ambiguity about fairness, self-image concerns disappear and people are happy to pay."
第二个试验证印证了第一个试验。研究人员把人们坐船旅行的场景拍成相片,再向这些人出售。这次格尼茨博士和他的同事们更加直接地控制试验主体的期望值。一组定价15美元,另一组则为5美元,而第三组的人们则可以看着给。然后告诉这三组的人们,照片原价是15美元。不出所料,当照片的价格从15美元跌倒5美元的时候,需求随之攀升。但当人们可以自己定价的时候购买量反而更少了研究者再次次解释了出现这种现象的原因:过低的定价反而使人们更加小气,甚至觉得过意不去。相比之下,"若公司把价格定到5美元,交易的公平性就毋庸置疑,人们不再担心自我形象,开始乐于购买。"

To determine whether it is your conscience that prods you to be generous, as opposed to pressure from your peers, the third experiment took place in a restaurant in which customers chose the price paid for a meal. One group was allowed to pay secretly; another paid in public. The people allowed to pay their bills anonymously chose to pay more, on average, than those who paid in public. Radiohead, for their part, seem to have anticipated Dr Gneezy's conclusions. Their latest album, "The King of Limbs", was again released online—but only for a fixed price, of $9.
为了搞清楚人们的慷慨大方到底是良心所驱还是群体压力所使,研究人员在一家餐厅进行了第三次试验。餐厅的顾客可以自选价格付账。一组用餐者可以在暗地里付账;另一组则要在大庭广众之下埋单。平均下来,匿名付账的人们比公开付账的人们给的更多。电台司令乐队似乎已经预料到了格尼茨博士的实验结论。他们的最新专辑------《橡树王的律动》再次上线发售,而这次把价定在了9美元。

Persians v Arabs / Same old sneers

Persians v Arabs
波斯民族vs阿拉伯民族


Same old sneers
依旧相互蔑视


Nationalist feeling on both sides of the Gulf is asprickly as ever
波斯湾两岸两大民族的相互感觉跟以前一样酸楚


May 5th 2012 | from the print edition


Cyrus eyeballs the locust-eaters
居鲁士注视着吃蝗虫的人


THE Persians have enjoyed being nasty about their Arab neighbours at least since the seventh century, when their land was invaded by Arab armies. From satirical verses about "locust-eaters" out of the parched wastes of Araby to periodic efforts to "purify" the Persian language of Arabic accretions, assertions of cultural superiority have masked a deep historical resentment.

至少自7世纪波斯领土被阿拉伯军队入侵以来,波斯人一直厌烦他们的阿拉伯邻居。从讽刺诗中提到的来自炎热的阿拉伯半岛荒地的"吃蝗虫的民族",到定期从波斯语里清洗来自阿拉伯语的外来词汇,我们可以看到,波斯人坚定地认为自己的文化更具优越性,这掩盖两个民族间深刻的历史积怨。

Now a row over three spots in the middle of the Persian Gulf (which Arabs, naturally, prefer to call the Arabian Gulf) has provoked fresh transports of emotion—on both sides. A recent trip by Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to the tiny island of Abu Musa, about 75km (47 miles) from Iran's south coast, prompted the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to restate in no uncertain terms its own claims to the island and to two barely inhabited chunks of rock nearby.

现今,位于波斯湾(当然阿拉伯人更喜欢称之为阿拉伯湾)中间的,一排由超过三个岛组成的岛链引发了波斯湾两岸民族情绪的爆发。最近,伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德访问距离伊朗南海岸75(47英里)公里远的阿布穆萨小岛,这促使阿拉伯联合酋长国坚定地重申对该岛及附近两个几乎无人定居的岩石岛拥有主权。

Iranian nationalists responded joyfully. Anti-Arab gags dominated comedy programmes on state radio, while astonishment was expressed in parliament and in the newspapers at the cheek of the "little sheikhs" to the south, their confected country barely four decades old, daring to address the heirs of Cyrus the Great. If the people of Iran's southernmost province all blew at once across the Gulf, one wag remarked, "the wind would carry the Emirates away."

伊朗民族主义者诙谐地予以回复。反阿拉伯谐星在国家电台广播台上排演调侃阿拉伯的戏剧节目,同时国会和报纸上都表达了对这群"小酋长"的惊愕之情:他们东拼西凑成的国家也就不到40年的历史,竟敢以居鲁士大帝的继承人而自居。其中一位谐星称,如果伊朗最南部省的老百姓同时朝海湾吹口气的话,"会把阿联酋刮走"。

The war of words may well have been deliberately engineered by Mr Ahmadinejad, narked at being sidelined in Iran's latest nuclear negotiations with the West (see article). But the president's attention-seeking is not risk-free. Abu Musa occupies a commanding position near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes under the protective eye of the American navy. Iran has threatened to block the strait in the event of a Western attack on its nuclear facilities.

口舌之争似乎是内贾德精心策划的。有消息指出,这位总统回退出与西方的核谈判。不过内贾德的这种转移视线的方法并非全无风险。阿布穆萨岛占据着霍尔木兹海峡出口附近的关键位置。世界上五分之一的石油都在美国海军的严密监视下经过该海峡。伊朗威胁一旦西方攻击其核设施,它将封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

Both parties claim that the islands have been part, since antiquity, of their cultural and political sphere. Iran's last shah seized them in 1971, as Britain abandoned its former possessions in the Gulf and the UAE was being set up. The Iranians have since strengthened their grip on the islands, settling mainlanders and building military defences, though Mr Ahmadinejad is the first head of government actually to visit any of them.

双方都宣称这三个岛自古便处于自己的文化和政治辐射圈内。1971年英国放弃对海湾的控制,阿联酋成立后,伊朗的末代国王将这些岛夺走。自此,伊朗加强了对这三个岛的控制,将伊朗大陆居民安排至这些倒定居,并建设军事防御工事。不过内贾德是第一位实际上参观过这三个岛之一的政府首脑。

Barring a rash move on either side, Mr Ahmadinejad's jaunt will probably not change very much. The Emiratis, backed by their Arab brethren, particularly the Saudis, have long pressed for negotiations over the island's sovereignty or for referral to the International Court at The Hague. The Iranians offer only talks aimed at resolving "misunderstandings".

除了引起双方间的鲁莽活动外,内贾德对该岛的访问可能作用不大。由阿拉伯兄弟国家,特别是沙特阿拉伯支持的阿联酋,强烈要求对该岛主权问题进行谈判或者由海牙国际法庭裁判。但是伊朗人仅愿进行旨在消除误解的谈判。

from the print edition | Middle East and Africa
 

Sensational and Sensationalized

Sensational and Sensationalized

By MICHAEL SANTOLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

The fallout from JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss will hurt the bank, its stock and the chances that the Volcker rule, curbing financial institutions' proprietary trading, won't take effect.

When a steady driver suddenly crashes into a hedge, it's time to run down the safety checklist before proceeding. So it is after JPMorgan Chase's clanging disclosure last week of a $2 billion-plus-on-paper loss in a corporate unit charged with hedging the bank's financial risks.
What just happened? Beyond producing what CEO Jamie Dimon called an "egregious" and "self-inflicted" loss, most of what can be ascertained about the trades in corporate-credit derivatives by the bank's Chief Investment Office is that they were poorly structured, improperly sized, and/or insufficiently monitored.
It was most likely more complex than a simple outright sale or purchase of insurance against corporate creditworthiness, probably involving counterweighted bets across the credit spectrum. Dimon's suggestion that this portfolio could produce additional "volatility" in results in coming quarters means the positions aren't fully unwound.
JPMorgan's Chief Investment Office oversees some $350 billion in assets. It is charged with trying to hedge the structural financial risks (credit, interest rates, currency) that a massive global consumer and commercial bank inherently faces. But there is no way for these aggregate risks to be offset or mitigated precisely.
Among the many debates this incident will energize is how to distinguish prudent hedging from proprietary bets -- a grayer area than partisans on either side of the regulatory divide tend to concede. But it's pretty bankable that the voices favoring a more stringent interpretation of the legal ban on proprietary trading will now be more readily heard. Dimon was the one bank CEO who could legitimately argue publicly that the most aggressive of the contemplated new banking rules would hinder well-run banks' competitive position and weigh on economic growth. He can still make that case, but fewer people of influence will be listening.
Should this loss be seen as a sick or dead coal-mine canary, foretelling broader market contagion? This is quite unlikely. As Nomura analyst Glenn Schorr points out, "While the original premise was to hedge the company in a stress credit environment, we haven't seen credit or volatility blow out this quarter," so the mispositioning was Morgan-specific, and hedge funds and others on the opposite end of the trades were net beneficiaries.
How, and how much, will this hurt JPMorgan? With a $2.3 trillion balance sheet and a quarterly run rate of $6 billion in earnings, a $2 billion mark-to-market loss is easily, if uncomfortably, absorbed, as would be the additional $1 billion in potential costs now being estimated to mop up the trades. The $1.20-per-share annual dividend, the $15 billion share-buyback authorization, the bank's nearly $5 in per-share earnings power, and its solid capital ratios look secure.
The pain is being administered to the "reputational premium" that JPMorgan, Dimon, and the company's stock (ticker: JPM) have (justly, to date) enjoyed over megabank rivals. The narrative of Dimon as the banker who foresaw the excesses that caused the 2008 financial meltdown and girded his company for the shock is diminished slightly, but not fully undermined.
Perhaps it's a trivial observation, but not every CEO would chastise himself and his company in quite the blunt terms Dimon did on his Thursday conference call. It's a fair bet that the Chief Investment Office (which, as the Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal blog noted, has grown far faster than the bank as a whole in recent years) will have its mandate sharpened, shrunken…or both.
What does it all mean for JPMorgan shares? The stock's Friday drop of 9%, to $36.96, was both understandable and probably overdone, vaporizing more than $14 billion in market value. With this decline, the dividend yield is 3.25%, making it just about the highest-yielding large-bank stock around. Tangible book now approaches $35, so a lot of the premium formerly afforded the bank has evaporated. Yet JPMorgan's dominant and broad franchise hasn't gone away.
There is an inherent tension between the desire for banks to be strong and vibrant sources of economic strength and the reformers' resolve to force them in the direction of public financial utilities. Bank critics want them to lend freely to lubricate the economy, but hold more capital against loans to protect depositors; to be large and diverse enough to ensure stability, but not so ambitious as to play too heavily in the global capital markets.
John McDonald of Bernstein Research suggests that the Morgan news "will likely reinforce investor concerns about the opacity of big-bank balance sheets, the predictability of their earnings and the ability of the industry to deliver consistent returns," which should "put pressure on bank-stock multiples."
This is true -- but no more so for Morgan than its peers, despite this sensational and sensationalized misstep.

Vulnerable Dragon

Vulnerable Dragon

A consideration of Jamie Dimon's and JPMorgan Chase's debacle with a supposed hedge transaction. Also, the dark visage under China's smiling, prosperous image.

 

You can't win 'em all. Every gambler, from sidewalk crapshooter to bet-a-million roulette habitué in Las Vegas, can to his rue verify the truth of that ancient homily. And so can Jamie Dimon, who runs this rich nation's biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase . Last week, he mournfully disclosed that the bank had lost two billion smackers when a supposed hedge transaction involving derivatives and stocks went sour.

Dimon, who has been on a roll for many years and who always struck us as the class act in banking, an industry not famous for its extraordinary execs, refused to soft-soap the enormous hit, blaming "errors, sloppiness, and bad judgment" for the disastrous trade. And he added, in a conference call to shell-shocked analysts and portfolio managers, "Just because we were stupid doesn't mean anyone else was." It's a fair assumption that the "we" really somewhat royally referred to himself.

It's more than a touch ironic that Dimon, who guided Chase so skillfully through the financial crisis, came to grief (if only momentarily) by ignoring the irrefutable fact that derivatives can be weapons of mass financial destruction and are not infrequently an excellent hedge against capital gains.

In this instance, it proved a particularly costly oversight, exposing the bank's stock (ticker: JPM) to a fierce drubbing, and rattling the financial sector as a whole. It also lit a fire under the dithering regulators.

Now, if any institution can absorb a $2 billion whack without fatal damage being inflicted on its balance sheet, if not its amour-propre, it's Chase. But this sort of thing can have a long and annoying tail, so we'll wait to see how quickly and how briskly the bank and Dimon snap back.

For a spell now, Dimon has been butting heads with Paul Volcker over the so-called Volcker Rule, aimed at curbing banks' proprietary trading. And talk about irony, as we did a few paragraphs above, the day before Dimon made his sorry disclosure, Volcker testified before the Senate Banking Committee, beating the drums for the merits of the rule, a key provision of the Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul, due to take effect in July.

Beside curbs on banks dabbling in proprietary trading, Volcker made a pitch for restrictions on trading in derivatives. Who knows? In his present angry, confessional mood, even Jamie Dimon might think that's not such a bad idea.

After a brief and truncated rally, the stock-market response to the Chase fiasco was neither very much here nor there, as investors obviously decided to take the weekend to think it over. That, we suspect, will prove a wise decision.

THAT COLOSSUS OF NATIONS, CHINA, whose astonishing economic growth has become one of the seven wonders of the world (elbowing out the Hanging Gardens of Babylon or the Mausoleum at Halicarnassus; we forget which) is, not surprisingly, the cynosure and envy of this aching planet. But lately, the country has attracted global attention for a vastly different and juicier reason: a lurid glimpse of the corrupt and inhumane visage beneath the smiling face of the ruling regime.

The corruption and ruthlessness of that regime was personified by Bo Xilai. By all description, Bo is no beau. He rose through the bureaucratic ranks by hook and crook, especially the latter, to provincial governor and a spot in the Politburo, the claque of devils that runs the nation. But thanks to his insatiable ambition, unrestrained self-promotion, and take-no-prisoners approach to dealing with underlings and rivals, he's never wanted for enemies, a number of them powerful.

So not too many tears were shed when the roof fell in on Bo.  He has been suspended from the Politburo and is being held at some unrevealed location while under investigation for "serious violations" of Communist Party rules. In China, that can mean anything from spitting on the sidewalk to scooping up for yourself a few hundred grand of the government's stash.

It obviously doesn't help poor Bo that his wife, a lawyer and far from a shrinking violet, is a suspect in the murder of Neil Heywood, a Brit living in China, who was both a friend and a business associate and with whom she argued over money shortly before he was killed.

In China's inscrutable political system, punctuated by periodic struggles for power, today's outcasts can become tomorrow's top dogs. And while such a reversal doesn't seem imminently in the cards for Bo, weirder things have happened. A safe bet is that whoever replaces him is likely to embody the same corrupt and self-aggrandizing impulses.

As to the regime's less-than-stellar respect for humanism, the repulsive treatment of Chen Guangcheng, the courageous blind dissident who finally sought to escape from years of bullying, imprisonment, and house detention and somehow traversed a couple of hundred miles to refuge in the American Embassy in Beijing, is more than eloquent testimony. At last report, he was in a hospital, suffering from internal ailments and a broken foot sustained during his escape, awaiting approval to depart for America and voicing concern that his extended family would be subject to vicious retaliation.

The spotlight on corruption and mistreatment of its populace couldn't shine at a less propitious time for Beijing. For one thing, the country's leadership is passing the baton. And, perhaps more importantly, China's fab economy is showing serious signs of strain. Exports, the engine of the nation's remarkable growth, are lagging; in April, they edged up a mere 4.9%, roughly half as much as economists had predicted. Imports meanwhile managed to eke out a miserable 0.3% rise, far below the 11% anticipated.

Moreover, factory output came in at 9.3%, the smallest increase since May 2009. And residential real estate has hit the skids.

Hard landing, anyone?

THAT AT LEAST IS THE SEEMING PURPORT of a paper on China penned by Harald Malmgren. We've had the pleasure of passing along from time to time Harald's insightful comments on global markets, including our own precious bourse. The eponymous investment firm that he manages advises mostly big-bucks clients -- the likes of financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds, governments and central banks. He's a big picture man and very well clued-in.

In sizing up China, Harald says that he tapped the sentiment of what he dubs the country's "investor class." an amorphous slice of the population that encompasses a sweep of private investors, including high-net-worth families, managers of giant investment funds, and individual entrepreneurs. Such investors, he observes, have growing influence on how China's economy functions and, in consequence, increasing political influence as well. The good thing, presumably for Harald and for us, too, is that their opinions are not very earnestly pursued by the media or academic economists or market analysts.

Harald feels that China's exports are being hurt because foreign demand has been dramatically weakened by the Great Recession and its aftermath and the erosion of China's competitive edge by the rising costs of labor, materials and energy. Domestic demand is simply not sufficient to pick up the slack from faltering exports.

Meanwhile, he notes, the country's "financial bubbles in real estate and commodities are bursting, its banking system is crumbling under the weight of massive misallocated and nonperforming debt," while the ordinary citizen is suffering from inflation in food, fuel and other essentials.

Around the world, Harald relates, investors are weighing what's in store for the Sino economy -- a soft or a hard landing. The answer, he asserts, depends in part whether or not the global economy can stage a real recovery from the financial shocks of the past few years. But, he avers, it also depends upon how quickly China's new leadership can come up with, and act on, fresh approaches to deal with the serious stresses on the economy, which, in turn, will be determined by whether the political transition is smooth or roiled by a lengthy period of power struggles.

The investor class, reports Harald, is worried stiff that the transition will not go smoothly and, to make matters worse, will stretch out over a considerable time span. And they fear that the transition will replace current office holders with a heap of novices lacking virtually any experience of governing.

Another, perhaps more pressing worry is that the new gang in control will include many new leaders and officials hot to gather wealth and wouldn't mind at all shaking down current members of the investor class to get it. There are concerns, too, according to Harald that if China's economy doesn't come up to snuff in the next few years, the new leaders will blame their predecessors for faulty management and corruption, triggering a wealth transfer from the ancien regime to the new one.

Much of the investor class, observes Harald, sees a weak economy ahead for China, and they shrug off Beijing's data as anything but reliable. At best they expect growth to fall shy of the official target of 7.5%, and obviously it could be worse. Maybe the most telling trend is that investors are looking for better opportunities abroad, and that somewhere down the road, the powers-that-be may be confronted by capital flight.

What does it all add up to? A situation that's fluid and likely to get more so, and less than inviting for investors. 

New film: "The Avengers"

New film: "The Avengers"
新影片:《复仇者》


More, merrier
越多越开心


May 5th 2012, 13:13 by O.M.

20120428_bkp520.jpg 

PROMISING to be the first billion-dollar blockbuster of the summer season, "The Avengers" succeeds by turning a seemingly fatal flaw into a winning strength. The film brings together the heroes of a number of previous films based on Marvel comics―Iron Man, a wisecracking one-man military-industrial complex; Captain America, a warrior pure of heart; Thor, a god from Asgard; and the Hulk, a hulk―along with some established supporting characters who have not yet carried their own movies, but are still played by some big-name actors. Together they form a planetary defence team capable of fending off marauding aliens and giant flying space weevils unleashed on midtown Manhattan by a demi-god with daddy issues and an inter-dimensional portal. Its precursor films have all done well-enough at the box office―"Iron Man 2", the biggest hit, earned $624m at the box office in 2010―and despite being pricier to make than those earlier episodes, "The Avengers" was hardly likely to lose money. But fans and others worried that by cramming in so many characters the film would end up bitty, the whole less than the sum of its super parts.

《复仇者》将是今年夏季第一部十亿美元大片,该片的成功之处在于它将一个似乎致命的缺点转变成了一个致胜的优点。这部电影将之前根据Marvel漫画改编的几部大片中的主人公齐聚一堂。其中包括俏皮话连篇,集军工科技于一身的钢铁侠;内心纯真的战士美国队长;来自阿斯加尔德的雷神托尔;还有巨人浩克,此外还有一些有头有脸的配角英雄,他们虽然还没有属于自己的影片,但仍然由大牌影星担纲。这些英雄一起形成了一支地球保卫队,借助各自的能力来对抗在曼哈顿中心横行的外星人和巨型太空飞虫。这些侵略者背后的罪魁祸首是一位有着父亲情结和跨次元传送门的半神。该片的相关前作票房表现都很出色,其中最卖座的《钢铁侠2》更是在2010年拿下6.24亿美元的票房。虽然《复仇者》的制片成本比之前的相关电影都要高,它亏本的可能性并不太大。不过很多影迷和其他人都担心把这么多角色挤在一部电影中会让影片支离破碎,导致整体效果不如其各部分超级英雄之和。

In fact the multiplicity of characters makes the film work better than the earlier ones. This is largely thanks to the skill of Joss Whedon, the writer and director. But it is also because the superheroes are a bit dull. If you want to get a film's worth of fun from them, it helps to buy in bulk.

事实上角色众多恰恰使得该片比之前的相关电影更加出色。这很大程度上要归功于剧作家兼导演Joss Whedon的功力。另外一个原因在于超级英雄电影都有点沉闷无聊。如果你要想从中找到一整部电影的乐趣,大批量产英雄是一个很好的办法。

The typical superhero film has some sort of origin story; the introduction of a villain; a segment where the hero is either misunderstood, self-destructive or led astray; a bit of rapprochement and/or personal growth; and an inevitable and almost always overlong finale in which the superhero battles the aforementioned villain (who often shares the superhero's super-schtick―a powered suit, in the case of Iron Man; mutagenic berserker rage in the case of the Hulk). Acceptable variations include multiple villains and some level of love interest. Attempts to give the superhero a nuanced inner life may be made, but rarely to any great effect.

典型的超级英雄电影首先会有某种英雄起源的故事,再接下来是反派的出场,然后主角会有一段时期遭到人们误解,或是倾向于自我毁灭,或是误入歧途,在那之后就轮到洗心革面的桥段,其中也许会加入个人内心变得成熟的戏码,最后就会是那不可避免,而且永远都过于拖沓的决战情节,主人公将会大战之前提到的反派(反派还经常持有主人公本身的超能力,例如钢铁侠的对手也有一套强力装甲,浩克的对手则带有基因突变引发的狂野怒气)。这个公式可能会有一些适当的变动,例如多个反派角色,或者一定程度上的浪漫恋爱情节。也可能出现一些情节旨在让这些超级英雄拥有敏感的内心生活,但这样的处理很少会出彩。

"The Avengers" follows a similar pattern, but as a group. So the six Avengers come together, they fall apart, they get themselves back together, they win. And this time there is a rich and accessible "inner life"―not within one character, but among half a dozen of them. With an almost mathematical rigour, Mr Whedon runs through the combinations on offer to give almost every member of the team some sort of one-to-one interaction with each other, as well as with the antagonist, Loki (played with glee, menace and Chaucerian obscenity by Tom Hiddlestone). Because these numerous interactions ring true, for the most part, they give the film a richness that the tales of single superheroes lack, and which may even encourage multiple viewings. As an added bonus, most of them are often very funny, the one between the Hulk and Thor sublimely so.

《复仇者》使用的是同一个公式,不过这次是用在一群英雄身上。因此整个大剧情是六名复仇者集合,他们散伙,他们再次重新团结,最后他们胜利。这一次影片中有着丰富且易于理解的"内心生活",这种"内心生活"并不局限于一名角色身上,而是在六个人之间共同营造。Whedon导演利用了几近数学般的精确度审视了每一种组合,让队中所有人员都有机会和其他队友及和反角洛基(这个由Tom Hiddlestone扮演的反派角色混合了幸灾乐祸、凶狠歹毒及乔叟式的道德败坏这些元素)进行某种程度上的一对一互动。因为这些众多的互动大多都很逼真自然,它们给片子加上了一层单个超级英雄影片所无法提供的丰富感,甚至可能会促使一些观众重看多遍。此外,这些互动还有一个额外的优点――它们大多很幽默,浩克和托尔之间的交流尤为滑稽。

Bringing the funny is crucial. In accounting for the success of "The Avengers" much has been made of the fact that the talented Mr Whedon has a deep understanding of comic books (he has written excellent ones); of how to choreograph an ensemble (the passengers and crew of the spaceship Serenity in his lamentably short-lived science-fiction-western Firefly were a fully believable team from the show's first moments); and of what makes a great heroine (the creator of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" gives Scarlett Johansson's Black Widow not just one of the best action scenes in the film but also the best dramatic scene, making her as central as the boys who've had films of their own).

幽默是很关键的。在列举《复仇者》一片为什么会成功时,有几点被各路评论反复提到。这包括Whedon导演对于漫画书有着非常深刻的理解(他曾写过几本一流漫画书),他非常清楚怎样编排全体人员在镜头前的行动(在他那部很可惜只播了一季的科幻西部剧萤火虫》里,从最开始的几个镜头起,"宁静号"上面的船员和乘客就是一个逼真的团体),以及他完全了解怎么才能创作出一个优秀的女主角(这位《吸血鬼猎人巴菲 》的制片人在此片中不仅将最好的几个动作场面之一交给由Scarlett Johansson扮演的黑寡妇,还把最好的剧情场面也托付给她,这让她在片中和那些拥有自己影片的男演员们平起平坐)。

But just as crucial is his early experience in the writers' room of the sitcom "Roseanne". Like "The Avengers", "Roseanne" found its humour in the relationships between six clearly drawn family members; it then polished that humour into great barbs and one liners. The vibe of a quasi-functional family held together by loyalty, compassion and comic timing unites the two works. (One can even see parallels at the character level; Mark Ruffalo's Hulk is not a million miles from bright, moody Darlene Conner, and Robert Downey junior could totally deliver as the loud-mouthed manager of a loose-meat restaurant―in "The Avengers"' final post-credits sequence he sort-of-almost does.)

但同样重要的是Whedon早期担任情景喜剧《罗斯安家庭生活》剧作团队成员时所得到的经验。和《复仇者》一样,《罗斯安家庭生活》的幽默植根于六个性格鲜明的家庭成员之间的关系,这种幽默再进一步被加工成经典的挖苦打趣台词。一个勉强运作的团队被忠诚、怜悯和时机恰好的幽默团结在一起,这种氛围把这两部作品联系起来。(你也可以发现剧中角色间的相似,Mark Ruffalo扮演的浩克其实和聪明忧郁的Darlene Conner相差不远,而小Robert Downey扮演一间肉碎三明治餐馆里口无遮拦的经理完全没有问题――在《复仇者》片尾演员表字幕之后的隐藏片段中,他差不多就已经这么做了。)

It is by seeing (and realising) the possibility of a sit-com aesthetic at the heart of the blockbuster action film that Mr Whedon delivers an entertainment that works. It is not flawless. While "Transformers 3" was loutish in its humours, devoid of wit or subtlety, its trashing of Chicago was visually more compelling. Loki's belief that humans are craven could have bore a bit more scrutiny (but then the question of whether people are really worth saving is one Mr Whedon has already addressed elsewhere). And it's not necessarily an approach that others can or should follow. Christopher Nolan's third and final Batman film, "The Dark Knight Rises", later this summer will hardly be a laugh-fest. But it does make one hope that Marvel, already committed to more Iron Man, Thor and Captain America films, ploughs some of its profits into a film about the lesser-known Ant Man. Edgar Wright, who was one of the creators of a terrific sit-com himself (as well as the director of the inspired, if commercially disappointing, "Scott Pilgrim vs The World"), has been planning such a film for some time. If it found an audience it might have the welcome effect of making a married couple of superheroes, Ant Man and Wasp, available for an eventual Avengers sequel. This would give Mr Whedon, should he return, yet more possibilities for the barbs, bickering and not-always-comforting emotion he does so well.

Whedon导演正是看出了在这部大片的表面之下潜藏着情景喜剧美感的可能性(并成功让这种可能性成真),从而拍出了一部成功的娱乐电影。该片并不是完美无瑕的。《变形金刚3》中的幽默非常糟糕,既不风趣也不微妙,但是那部电影里芝加哥被摧毁的场景在视觉上要比《复仇者》更具有震撼力。洛基认为人类是懦弱的种族这一观点本可以在片中进行更深一步的探讨(话说回来,Whedon在他其它作品中已经讨论过人类到底值不值得救赎这个问题了)。Whedon这种利用喜剧元素的方法并不一定值得其他人借鉴,别人也不一定有能力借鉴这个方法。Christopher Nolan的第三部也是最后一部蝙蝠侠电影《黑暗骑士崛起》将会于今年夏天晚些时候公映,那部电影就几乎完全不含喜感。但是《复仇者》确实让人们不禁希望Marvel在已经确定将会拍摄的钢铁侠、托尔和美国队长电影之外,可以把一部分利润拿来拍摄一部较少人知道的"蚂蚁侠"电影。本身也曾创作过一流情景喜剧(外加执导过那部虽然票房不佳发人深思的《歪小子斯科特》)的Edgar Wright已经计划拍摄这么一部电影有一段时间了。如果"蚂蚁侠"电影受观众欢迎的话,该片可能会最终将超级英雄夫妻――蚂蚁侠和黄蜂侠――引入《复仇者》的续集,这将会是一大喜事。这么一来,如果Whedon会来继续执导续集,他将会有更多机会展示最擅长的挖苦、争执和偶尔没那么愉快的情绪。

Indeed, Mr Whedon will surely be showing off these talents in his next venture―a very low budget adaptation of "Much Ado About Nothing", which might seem remarkably far removed from the cosmic tag-wrestling of "The Avengers" were it not for the sensibility that will unite them.

确实,Whedon一定会在他的下一部片子――莎翁《无事生非》的改编――中显露他这方面的特长。那部片子的预算极小,可能看上去和《复仇者》中那震天动地的多人战队戏码相差甚远,但是它们透露出的感性将会把这两部片子联系起来。