[2010.07.15]Budding greens朝气蓬勃的环保人士

 Budding greens
朝气蓬勃的环保人士

A new generation of climate-change activists
新一代气候变化活动人士。
Jul 15th 2010 | BEIJING

CHINA'S environment, most obviously the air in its cities, has been deteriorating roughly at the same dizzy pace that its industry has been expanding. Now some young activists, notably in university environmental clubs, are campaigning to raise awareness of pollution. In the process, they are among the first of their generation to dabble with political participation.
中国环境恶化的速度几乎与其工业令人炫目的扩张速度旗鼓相当，城市中的空气状况尤为明显。眼下，部分青年活动家以大学环保俱乐部为阵地，正在努力提高人们的环保意识。在这个过程中，他们是这代人中首批涉足政治活动的人。

The China Youth Climate Action Network, formed in Beijing in August 2007, began as a group of seven organisations which shared a desire to tackle global warming. This week it co-hosted a big summit on youth, energy and climate change at the United Nations pavilion in the Shanghai World Expo. "China has 400m young people and they need to make their voices heard, to express their views on climate change," says Zhao Xiangyu, a board member.
2007年8月，中国青年应对气候变化网络在北京成立，起初是由都旨在解决全球变暖问题的七个组织组成的一个团体。本周，它在上海世博会的联合国馆共同主持了一次有关青春、能源和气候变化的大型峰会。该团体的成员赵祥宇说："中国拥有4亿年轻人，他们需要让人们听到他们的声音，发表他们在气候变化问题上的看法。"

The group's main project is to encourage energy efficiency at 52 Chinese universities. It does so through surveys, on-campus training and producing a guide book on responding to climate change. Its goal, since inception, has been to get a 20% cut in greenhouse-gas emissions at the universities by 2012. Evidence of progress, so far, has been mixed.
该团体的主要工程是在中国的52所大学鼓励有效利用能源。它通过对应对气候变化的调查、在校培训和制作指导书来完成任务。一开始，它就致力于实现到2012年大学的温室气体排放减少20%的目标。迄今为止，进步的证据喜忧参半。

This is not for want of enthusiasm. Students at Peking University have set up a Clean Development Mechanism club, named after a part of the Kyoto protocol. With some funding from the World Wide Fund for Nature, it recently ran a project to interview and train "low-carbon leaders" around the country. "Our parents, their generation, are not aware of these issues," says Fan Jie, a member of the club. "So it is our generation who should take action."
并不是缺乏热情。北大的学生用京都协议的一部分来命名，成立了清洁发展机制俱乐部。最近，它利用从世界自然生态基金会获得的一些资助，实施了一项在全国采访和培训"低碳带头人"的项目。该俱乐部成员方杰（音）说："我们的父母亲那一代并没有意识到这些问题。因此，我们这一代应该采取行动。"

Yet it is an awkward time for NGOs in China. Since March officials have required small non-profit organisations to get restrictive notarised agreements before they can accept foreign funding. This gives the government still more control in a field already dominated by groups that are closely guided by officialdom.
然而，对中国的非政府组织来说，这是一段令人尴尬的时期。3月后，官方要求小型非盈利组织获得公证人签字的限制性协议才能接受国外资助。这又为政府在业已由官方密切指导的团体主导的领域提供了更多的控制权。

Such control may be one reason why even the greenest activists do not contradict the government's stance on tackling climate change. But Mr Fan, and most of his peers, also agree that economic growth and the environment are both pressing concerns, especially with countless Chinese still living in poverty.
这种控制或许是为何最具环保意识的活动人士在解决气候变化问题方面不与政府立场冲突的一个原因。但是方杰以及大多数他的同龄人还赞同，经济增长和环境问题都是当务之急，尤其是在还有无数中国人还生活在贫困中的情况下。

The activists are also sensitive about foreign criticism of China's foot-dragging on greenery. At talks over a new climate treaty in Copenhagen, in December, young Chinese delegates were not alone in doubting that a meaningful agreement would be struck. But they were fearful of being dragged into Western criticism of their government, and so pulled out of a planned joint declaration by young Chinese and American delegates. That would have called on governments of both countries to step up environmental efforts. But the statement, they felt, might have been used to put undue pressure on China. This new breed of environmentalist is Chinese first, global citizen second.
这些活动人士对国外对中国在环保方面拉后腿的批评也很敏感。在有关12月份哥本哈根一项新的气候条约的交谈中，并非只有年轻的中国代表对将敲定一项有意义的协议表示怀疑。但是他们担心卷入西方对其政府的批评中，因此退出了一份原计划由中美年轻代表发表的联合宣言。这份宣言本是呼吁两国政府加大环境保护的力度。但是他们认为，这项声明可能会被用于给中国施加过多的压力。这新一代环保人士首先考虑的是中国，其次才是是全球公民。

以央行行长为锚的货币制度

 

 

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以央行行长为锚的货币制度

via 牛博国际 by 周其仁 on 7/18/10

　　以央行行长为锚的货币制度

　　周其仁
　　经济观察报 2010年7月19日星期一

　　周其仁个人网站：http://zhouqiren.org/

　　文提到的保罗·沃尔克先生（Paul Volcker），是1979-1987年间的美联储主席。此公被看作货币史上的一位英雄，以强势扭转了美国被通胀吞噬的命运。我们到今天还在讨论人民币要不要以美元为锚，很大程度上也是因为脱离了金本位后的美元遇上了这么一位人物。我喜欢他的故事，正是那略带个人英雄主义的传奇，让我明白货币选锚问题的困难所在。

　　1971年8月15日，尼克松总统宣布关闭"黄金窗口"，终结了布雷顿森林体系。一时间，各国央行持有的数百亿欧洲美元，再也无处按美国政府当年承诺的平价兑换黄金。此前几年，美国国会也大大咧咧地解除了美联储发行美元非要有一定比例黄金储备的法定要求。这就是说，无论对外还是对内，美元都获得了"解放"——它既不受黄金储备的束缚，也不受履行平价兑金承诺的压力。但是，美国因此就真的白白占到了便宜吗？

　　至少沃尔克不这样看。说来不是巧合，这位对美元地位忧心忡忡的人士，当时还是"尼克松冲击"的最重要谋划人之一。作为时任美国财政部主管货币事务的副部长，他认定欧洲美元危机是美国超出黄金储备发行货币的结果。因此，他不同意其他总统的智囊之见，以为威逼利诱欧洲国家货币对美元升值，就可以一劳永逸地解除美元危机。他主张公开摊牌，结束根本就不可能守得住的布雷顿森林体系。

　　沃尔克认为还要下大决心治理美国国内的通胀。祸害的源头还是美元超量供给，但治理国内通胀却比对付那些暴跳如雷的外国政府代表更为困难。毕竟，治理国内通胀的代价要由本国同胞、产业企业界以及政治家来承受。没有一定的共识，缺乏必要的政治容忍、许可和支持，治理已经恶化的通胀根本无从谈起。实际上，到1979年沃尔克得到卡特总统的提名而当上美联储主席时，美国CPI已高达13%，累积多年而加速的通胀早就是美国头号国内经济问题。

　　这位身高两米以上的新主席上任伊始就下痛手。那时美联储的政策工具与后来格林斯潘时代的一样，主要是提升联储基金利率 （FedFundRate）。他上任第八天就宣布，把联储基金利率提高50个基点到11%，再过两天又宣布把贴现率提高5个基点到10.5%。但是，当这位美联储新掌门人要求再次提高贴现率时，他遇到了麻烦：美联储有投票权的7位委员中，3位反对。虽然沃尔克还拥有多数，但舆论和市场却判断进一步的加息是不可能的了。

　　在美联储投票决定基准利率的制度下，沃尔克遭遇了两难困境。如果他坚持"利息至少为正"的立场，要求进一步加息，那么他很可能成为上任不久就变成少数派的美联储主席，并因为成为少数而无法贯彻自己的政策主张。如果他像他的前任一样圆滑地妥协，那么反通胀使命就前功尽弃。这里的关键是，通胀不单是货币现象，而且还是公众的心理现象。人们预期未来还是高通胀，就会不断地以购买行为来保卫自己的财富。人们越是不停地买、买、买，货币比商品和服务增长更快的超发行本性就越发暴露无遗，并使物价的持续上涨刺激更多的购买行为和更高的物价上涨。要打破高通胀自我强化的逻辑，有效办法就是升息，因为利息的提高等于增加了消费行为的机会成本。经济学说，只要代价足够高，总可以约束得住行为。

　　问题是，有没有允许经济规则发挥作用的政治条件？美联储内部的反对意见其实有更广泛的代表性，因为大幅度升息必然带来"治疗过程"的痛苦。从生产者的角度看，消费者一起减少购物意愿不啻是一场灾难，因为库存会增加、周转会减慢、破产要上升、失业会严重。原来，经济不但也怕痛，痛者还会大喊大叫。像正常情况下那样一道道"微调式"的升息，事还没办成，叫痛的政治力量就集结完毕。

　　沃尔克理解自己的困境，但绝不放弃为脱离金本位的美元重新建锚的使命。他坚持经济逻辑的原则，又凭借多年"周旋"在美国行政与政治迷宫里练就的本领，终于找到了破解困境的实际路径——美联储不再投票决定基准利率，转而直接制定美国货币供应量目标，然后经由市场过程，由货币供应量的变化决定利率的变化。这真是神来之笔：货币供应量当然决定着利率，但美联储却再也不需要为提升利率而直接面对政治紧张。当时有一位批评者点评道，"这是一个政治行动而非经济行动"，因为"随着利率不断升高，联储可以说，'嘿，这与我们有什么关系，我们又没有加息，我们只是在实现货币供应量目标'"。

　　有关此次美国货币调控转型的细节，读者可以在《纽约时报》记者那本出色的传记里读到 （见JosephB·Treaster,Paul Volcker：TheMakingofAFinancialLegend.李莉 译，《保罗·沃克尔——金融传奇人生》，中国金融出版社2006年版）。这里记下的是结果。1979年10月6日美联储一致通过了货币供应量目标的新体制，接着在开门的市场上，联邦基金利率从12%攀升到18%，然后落在13%-15%。商业银行的优惠利率因此被推高。然后，利率在平静的氛围里持续上升，在1981年夏秋之际攀上了连沃尔克本人也没有想到过的顶峰：联邦基金利率19.1%，商业银行优惠利率21.5%！狂奔的通胀野马终于被勒住了：美国通胀率在1981年降为6.5%，再过2年又降到4%以下。代价当然也不菲：美国经济在衰退里挣扎，破产企业翻倍，失业率创1940年以来最高。提名沃尔克任联储主席的卡特，因为保增长不力而无缘连任总统。对于沃尔克本人来说，虽然货币供应量的调控模式确保了他得以在美联储完成自己的使命，但排山倒海的讥讽和谴责、受损利益集团的高调辱骂，还有时隐时现来自白宫和国会山的政治压力，终究还要压在这位大个子的身上。沃尔克的品格不允许他做无原则退让，而正是这一点帮他守到了云开日出——从被污蔑为经济衰退杀手，到成为公认的美国英雄。

　　从货币制度着眼，沃尔克为美元重新建起的"央行行长之锚"，是不是过于诉诸个人因素而缺乏持久的可靠性？有这个问题。君不见，美联储在沃尔克的继任者格林斯潘主席领导下的作为，不正因为金融危机而经受着重新审查吗？不过，我从沃尔克的故事里也读到另外的意味。所有那些弥漫在央行这样一个人造机构周围的要求宽松货币、不惜以通胀应付短期经济压力的社会力量，同样也包围并改变着古典金本位制。讲到底，黄金的物理属性不能抵抗晃动货币之锚的社会力量。在由人组成的经济里，"非人格化（impersonalized）的制度安排"，终究会受制于在传统、历史教训、现实的经济政治力量等约束下的人的行为。结论是，"以央行行长为锚"——或以任何其他人为机制为锚——的货币制度，不但不是偏离理想货币体制的例外，反而集中而醒目地反映了人类寻找可靠货币之锚的全部困难。  

 

 

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先有鸡还是先有蛋？ 先有蛋白后有蛋

 

 

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先有鸡还是先有蛋？ 先有蛋白后有蛋

via 科学松鼠会 by 资讯小分队 on 7/18/10

  

先有鸡还是先有蛋？日前有英国科学家发现，要想形成蛋壳，必须要有一种蛋白质ovocleidin-17（OC-17），而这种蛋白质只专属于鸡。然而，先有的鸡，还是先有的蛋白？这依然是个难题。

研究报告指出，这种蛋白质加速了硬壳的生长，当小鸡在蛋中生长时，硬壳在保护脆弱的蛋黄和蛋液上起着关键作用。

英国谢菲尔德大学工程材料系的Colin Freeman在邮件中表示"长期以来人们怀疑先有蛋，但现在我们有了科学证据，表明实际上是先有的鸡"。（这句话小编感觉不靠谱）

他说"这种蛋白质以前就被人们发现与蛋的形成有关，但通过更仔细地研究，我们现在可以知道它究竟如何控制这一过程"。

同样来自谢菲尔德大学工程材料系的John Harding教授说，这个发现还可以有其它用途。"理解鸡蛋壳怎么形成很有意思，不过其实这还能为设计新无机材料和新工艺提供线索。自然界已经发现了有创新性的解决方案，适用于材料科学和技术领域各种各样的问题，我们可以从中学到很多东西"。

相关论文发表于德国《应用化学》（Angewandte Chemie International Edition）。

这个蛋白其实很早就做过了。大家已经知道这个蛋白对蛋壳碳酸钙的形成有帮助。这几个人做的，是用计算机模拟molecular dynamics，这个蛋白怎么作为一个催化剂，使得无定形的碳酸钙的纳米颗粒形成晶核，成长为晶体。

这个研究属于生物矿化（biomineralization），这其实是个很火的领域，《自然》（nature）或《自然—材料科学》（nature material）上永远一堆这种仿生的灌水文。这个文的题目挺好，却没能送到至少nat mat那里发个letter，感觉是因为这个文章纯是一个计算机模拟结果，没有提供更多的实验对照，挺典型的材料工程师的思路。但生物界太复杂，并不如人工材料那般简单模拟便了事。

消息来源：微软全国广播公司（MSNBC）网站 7月14日报道、《应用化学》6月10日论文摘要

图片来自 corbis

renard 、Fujia 审稿

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Talking down 越说越通俗的英语

The evolution of English
英语的进化
Talking down
越说越通俗的英语

Jan 29th 2004
From The Economist print edition

IN 1896, William Jennings Bryan, a three-time candidate for the American presidency, gave a speech on a relatively dry financial topic, criticising the gold standard. But his rhetoric was for the ages: "You shall not press down upon the brow of labour this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold!"
     1896年，参选三次的美国总统候选人威廉•詹宁斯•布莱恩就某个相对枯燥的财政话题发表演讲，其间抨击了金本位货币制度。而他的浮夸之词是那个年代特有的："你们不该把带刺的王冠压在劳动人民的额头上，你们也不该将人类钉死在金本位的十字架上！"

Just over a hundred years later Sam Brownback, arguing for war against Iraq in a speech to the American Senate, said, "We go at Iraq and it says to countries that support terrorists, there remain six in the world that are as our definition state sponsors of terrorists, you say to those countries: 'We are serious about terrorism, we're serious about you not supporting terrorism on your own soil'."
     仅仅一百多年之后，萨姆•布朗贝克在对美国参议院发表演说为伊拉克战争辩护时说："我们进军伊拉克，这件事告诉那些支持恐怖分子的国家一个道理，按照我们的定义，全球还有六个国家属于恐怖分子的援助国。我们告诉这些国家的道理就是："对于恐怖主义，我们是要动真格的；对你们不在自己的国土上为恐怖主义提供支持这件事，我们的态度是认真的。"
What happened over the 20th century? Americans (and, to a lesser extent, Britons) no longer expect public figures, whether in oratory or in writing, to command the English language with skill and flair. Nor do they aspire to such command themselves. John McWhorter, a linguist and controversialist of mixed liberal and conservative views, sees the triumph of 1960s counterculture as responsible for the decline of formal English.
     20世纪发生了什么？美国人（包括英国人，只是程度稍轻）不再期待公众人物能娴熟地运用技巧和文采在演讲或写作中驾驭英语，而公众人物也不这么要求自己。约翰•麦克怀特是一位好辩论的语言学家，他的观点混杂着保守派和自由派的看法。他认为20世纪60年代的反传统文化是正式英语衰退的原因。

Blaming the permissive 1960s is nothing new, but this is not yet another screed against the decline in education. Mr McWhorter's academic speciality is language history and change, and he sees the gradual disappearance of "whom", for example, to be natural and no more lamentable than the loss of the case-endings of Beowulf-era English.
      怪罪放纵的60年代并不新鲜，而这并不是另一本批评教育滑坡的长篇大论。麦克怀特先生的学术专长是语言史与语言变化，他认为像'whom'这样的词逐渐消失是正常的，这并不会比贝奥武甫时代英语中的词格尾缀消失更令人惋惜。

But the cult of the authentic and the personal, "doing our own thing", has spelt the death of formal speech, writing, poetry and music. While even the modestly educated sought an elevated tone when they put pen to paper before the 1960s, even the most well regarded writing since then has sought to capture spoken English on the page. Equally, in poetry, the highly personal, performative genre is the only form that could claim real vibrancy. In both oral and written English, talking is triumphing over speaking, spontaneity over craft.
      然而，"做我们自己的事"这一对事物真实性和个人化的狂热信仰，已经为正式的演讲、写作、诗歌和音乐画上了句号。在60年代以前，哪怕仅受过一般教育的人在下笔时都要寻求一种高雅的腔调。但在那之后，即使是最文雅的文章在落笔时也要口语化。同样，在诗歌领域，只有高度个人化和富有表现力的文学形式才是真正具有活力的。无论在口语还是书面语中，谈天说地胜过了正式演说，即兴发挥比精心准备更受欢迎。

Illustrated with an entertaining array of examples from both high and low culture, the trend that Mr McWhorter documents is unmistakable. But it is less clear, to take the question of his subtitle, why we should, like, care. As a linguist, he acknowledges that all varieties of human language, including non-standard ones like Black English, can be powerfully expressive—there exists no language or dialect in the world that cannot convey complex ideas. He is not arguing, as many do, that we can no longer think straight because we do not talk proper.
麦克怀特先生从上层和下层文化中分别列举了一系列有趣的例子。从中我们可以看出，他所记录的这种趋势是十分明确的。而至于其副标题所提的问题：为什么我们应该、喜欢或在意？答案还不够明确。作为一位语言学家，他承认所有人类语言，包括那些非标准的语言如黑人英语，都具有极强的表达能力：世上不存在无法传达复杂思想的语言或方言。与大多数人不同的是，麦克怀特先生并不认为说话方式不规范就会使我们不能正确地思考。

Russians have a deep love for their own language and carry large chunks of memorised poetry in their heads, while Italian politicians tend to elaborate oratory that would seem anachronistic to most English-speakers. Mr McWhorter acknowledges that formal language is not strictly necessary, and proposes no radical education reforms—he is really bemoaning the loss of something beautiful more than useful. We now take our English "on paper plates instead of china". A shame, perhaps, but probably an inevitable one.
俄国人深爱自己的语言，他们脑中都存着大量诗歌；意大利政治家倾向于精心推敲自己的演讲，而这在多数说英语的人看来是落伍的行为。麦克怀特先生承认正式语言不是完全必需的，他也并没有提出激进的教育改革：他其实是在为那些美丽而不那么实用的东西的丧失而惋惜。我们正"用纸盘子而不是瓷盘子"享用我们的英语。这也许让人惭愧，但很可能已不可避免

[2010.04.22] Vampire squished? 压扁吸血鬼？

Vampire squished?
压扁吸血鬼？

What is bad for Goldman is bad for Wall Street, but good for regulatory reformers
凡对高盛不利的事，同样不利于华尔街，但却有利于监管改革者。

Apr 22nd 2010 | NEW YORK | From The Economist print edition

 

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2010-4-24 17:06

WHEN he was a child, Warren Buffett had an awe-inspiring encounter with Sidney Weinberg, Goldman Sachs's legendary leader, sparking a lifelong affection for the bank. These days the super-investor's admiration for Wall Street's most powerful firm, cemented by an investment during the recent crisis, puts him in a minority—and one that shrank further when, on April 16th, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Goldman and one of its employees of fraudulently misrepresenting structured instruments tied to subprime mortgages. The civil charges have dented the firm's aura of invincibility, sent shivers across Wall Street and possibly (and perhaps not coincidentally) changed the calculus of regulatory reform.

在沃伦•巴菲特还是个孩子的时候，他便与西德尼•温伯格有了一次令他心生敬畏的相遇（温伯格是高盛历史上的传奇领袖），这一相遇激起了巴菲特对高盛一生的钟爱。现在，这位超级投资客在本次经济危机中对高盛的一项投资更充分表明了他对高盛的喜爱，而这也使得他成了少数仍支持高盛的投资者之一。在证券交易委员会于4月16日指控高盛及其一名雇员在与次贷有关的结构性金融工具问题上向投资者提供欺诈性的虚假陈述以后，这样的少数派投资者更是进一步减少了。这场民事诉讼削弱了笼罩在高盛头上的无敌的光环，令整个华尔街也跟着颤抖，并可能（也许并不是巧合）改变本轮规制改革的考量标准。

The case centres on a synthetic collateralised debt obligation that Goldman structured and marketed. It told investors that the securities bundled together to form the CDO, known as ABACUS, had been selected by an independent "collateral manager", ACA. The SEC alleges that Goldman failed to disclose that Paulson & Co, a hedge fund that also had a hand in choosing what went in, had bet that the CDO would perform poorly. This gave it an incentive to select securities that would bomb—and bomb they did, costing investors, including IKB, a German bank , and ACA itself, $1 billion. The employee, Fabrice Tourre, is alleged to have misled ACA into believing the hedge fund was a long investor.

这一诉讼围绕着高盛构建和营销的一种合成担保债务凭证（CDO）而展开。高盛告诉投资者组成这一名为阿巴卡斯（译注：ABACUS，也有媒体称其为算盘）的CDO的证券是由独立的"抵押品管理人"ACA公司挑选的。证交会指控高盛未能揭露一个事实，那就是，对冲基金鲍尔森公司也参与了证券的选择，并押注这一CDO证券会表现不佳，这就激励了鲍尔森公司选择会崩跌的证券——结果也真的崩跌，使得投资者（包括德国工业银行IKB和ACA）损失了10亿美元。而高盛的雇员法布里斯•图尔（Fabrice Tourre）则被指控误导了ACA相信鲍尔森基金做多该CDO证券。

Such charges are usually announced along with a settlement. But Goldman's determination to fight—with help from a former White House counsel—is not surprising, given what is at stake. The charges are sharply at odds with the firm's jealously guarded self-image as a paragon of integrity. Goldman sees itself as "long-term greedy", preferring to forgo profit today rather than to alienate a client.

这样的指控通常是同和解的结果一起公示的。然而考虑到这一事件的利害关系，高盛此番表现出的坚决应战到底的决心（还有一位前白宫法律顾问的帮助）也就不足为奇了：这一指控将严重地损害到高盛一直小心维护的诚实楷模的自我形象。高盛将自己定义为渴望长期利益者，宁肯放弃一时利益，也不愿疏远一个客户。

Many outsiders think the crisis exposed this characterisation as bogus. The popular narrative is that Goldman uses its privileged trading position in capital markets to double-deal, favouring some clients more than others, but above all favouring itself; that it sneakily sought to profit from the crash; that its alumni in high places helped it manipulate the bail-out; that it contributed to the global fiscal crisis by helping Greece and other countries mask their debt; and so on. The media have heaped on the pressure, comparing Goldman to a vampire squid and mocking its boss, Lloyd Blankfein, for suggesting, albeit tongue-in-cheek, that it was doing "God's work". An insider admits that the fraud charges will "fan the flames".

很多局外人认为这次危机将高盛这一自我标榜的形象之虚假暴露无遗。普遍的说法是高盛利用自己在资本市场上的特权交易地位搞两面派，帮助一些客户受益更多，但首要的是帮助自己；它曾秘密地从大崩盘中获益；它的身居高位的幕僚帮助它成功地操纵了救助资金；他帮助了希腊和其他一些国家掩饰他们的债务，促成了全球性的债务危机•••媒体也在一旁煽风点火，将高盛比作吸血鬼乌贼；高盛的老板劳埃德•布兰克费恩也因曾半开玩笑地说高盛做的是"上帝的工作"而受到媒体的嘲笑。一位局内人事坦陈，这一欺诈指控将无异于火上浇油。

Still, the SEC must prove its case. The regulator has helped itself by boiling it down to a fairly straightforward failure of disclosure. But lawyers say it is a gamble, reflected in the commission's three-to-two split on whether to proceed. The investors were sophisticated (on paper, at least) and the securities unregistered, reducing underwriter liability. Much of structured finance is uncharted territory for litigation. Only months ago, America's Department of Justice lost a high-profile legal battle against two hedge-fund managers from Bear Stearns (although criminal cases have to clear a higher bar than civil cases).

不过，证交会仍须在法庭上证明其控诉。该监管机构将这一事件归结为非常简单明了的"未尽告知义务"对其胜算确实有利，但律师们称从证交会在诉讼开始前决定是否将采取诉讼程序的内部投票仅以3:2险胜的分歧中可以反映出，这其实是一场赌博。投资者是老练的（至少名义上是这样）与证券不属于监管范围，都减轻了承销商的责任。很多结构性融资都位于诉讼的盲区。仅数月前，美国司法部还在一场高调的官司中败给了贝尔斯登的两名对冲基金经理（尽管刑事案件比民事案件有着更高的要求杠杆）。

Whether or not Goldman settles—if it doesn't, the case could drag on for years—the monetary damage will be manageable. With $73 billion in shareholder equity, it could survive penalties of several times investors' losses. More worrying is the possibility that its deep base of clients will begin to lose faith. So far they have remained loyal. Goldman posted stellar first-quarter net profits of $3.5 billion this week, driven by strong trading income. It even announced a share buy-back.

无论高盛是否和解——如果不和解，这案子可能会拖很多年——金钱上的损失都是可以弥补的。有着730亿美元股东权益的高盛，即使被罚几倍于投资者的损失，仍然可以存活下来。高盛更担心的是庞大的客户群会对它失去信心，虽然迄今为止他们仍保持着忠诚。高盛本周公布了亮丽的一季度财报，在强劲的经营所得的驱动下，公司当季净利润为35亿美元。它甚至还宣布了一笔股权回购。

At a minimum, though, Goldman faces "headline risk", likely further probes and distractions from running the business, says Mike Mayo, an analyst with CLSA. The board is firmly behind Mr Blankfein, but a top-level sacrifice may eventually be needed, especially if the firm's legal troubles escalate. Britain's Financial Services Authority has launched an investigation. Frank Partnoy of the University of San Diego's law school expects class-action and other private suits over, among other things, Goldman's failure to inform markets last year that it had received notification of a probe. IKB is considering its options, as is AIG, which lost a fortune selling Goldman credit protection on duff CDOs.

里昂证券（CLSA）的一位分析师称，高盛至少面临着"头条风险"，可能受到进一步调查并影响到其业务运营。尽管董事会坚决地支持布兰克费恩，但是最终可能还是需要一个高层的牺牲，尤其是如若公司遭遇的法律问题进一步升级。英国金融服务管理局也展开了一项调查。圣地亚哥大学法学院的弗兰克•帕特洛伊认为高盛会因为去年收到证交会的调查通知后一直没有告知市场，以及别的原因，遭受集体诉讼和其他的私人诉讼。IKB在思忖着它的选择；而因卖给高盛关于垃圾证券的信用担保而损失严重的AIG，也同样如此。
 

Goldman is not alone. It was far from the biggest CDO underwriter in the go-go years (see chart). A number of banks worked with hedge funds that wanted to short housing. The newly muscular SEC is scrutinising other deals. The rating agencies that gave CDOs such absurdly high ratings, though not named in the ABACUS case, should also worry.

这样做的并不仅仅是高盛一家。在这沸腾的岁月里，高盛离最大的CDO承销商还有很长一段距离。很多银行都在与做空房市的对冲基金合作。新近发力的证交会也有仔细检视其他交易。那些给CDO的评级高得如此荒谬的信誉评级机构，尽管不在阿巴卡斯诉案里同列为被告，也应当坐立不安了。

Some question the SEC's timing. The decision to attack Wall Street's bogeyman-in-chief just as the White House makes a big push to get its financial-reform bill through the Senate is certainly striking. It raises "serious questions about the commission's independence and impartiality," said Darrell Issa, the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee.

一些人质疑证交会的时机选择。证交会打击华尔街的妖魔总司令的决定恰好发生在白宫作出大力推进，希望金融改革议案能在参议院通过的时候，如此巧合，自然就吸引了众多的眼球。众议院监管委员会的共和党头目达雷尔•伊萨说，这一事件加重了人们对证交会的独立性与公平性的严重质疑。

Whatever the motive, the charges will increase pressure on Republican senators, already wary of being cast as Wall Street's buddies, to compromise, reckons Douglas Elliott of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. For many Americans, clamping down on banks is almost as big a concern as jobs, says Ted Kaufman, a Democratic senator. As The Economist went to press, Democratic leaders were hoping to bring the bill to the Senate floor within days.

来自智库布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）的道格拉斯•埃利奥特认为，无论这一指控的动机是什么，它都将增加原本就已在谨慎地避开华尔街密友形象的共和党议员妥协的压力。民主党议员特德•考夫曼说，在很多美国人看来，对银行的加强监管同解决就业问题一样重要。本期经济学人付印的时候，民主党领导人正期望着几天内将这一议案提交到参议院。

The Goldman case could make it harder to see off draconian legislative proposals, such as a plan to force banks to divest their swaps-trading units. Combined with higher capital charges for trading and with the Volcker rule, which would ban banks from proprietary trading and investing in hedge funds and private equity, these would hit capital-markets businesses hard. Goldman is arguably the most exposed: 80% of its first-quarter net revenue came from trading and principal investments.

高盛的案子使得阻挠严厉的立法提案变得更为困难，例如一个强迫银行成立独立的部门将其掉期交易业务分离出去的提案。这些严厉的立法提案同更高的交易资本金要求和沃尔克法则——该法则禁止银行进行自营交易和投资对冲基金、私募股权基金——结合起来，将给资本市场造成严重的冲击。高盛是受到这些政策和法规冲击最大的一个：它的一季度净利润中80%的利润来自交易和委托投资业务。

Writing the firm off would be foolhardy. It has recovered from adversity many times. Its risk management is top-notch, its people super-smart (and don't they know it). For all its ham-fisted PR, it has, so far, been able to ride out its image problems. But now it must defend itself, both in the court of public opinion and also, quite possibly, in courts of law. And where Goldman goes, much of Wall Street could be dragged.

现在就认定高盛无可救药是过度鲁莽。高盛曾多次绝处逢生；它的风险管理顶尖，它的人员异常聪明（他们自己当然知道）。尽管它的公关很拙劣，但到目前为止，高盛算是安然的挺过了一波波关乎其形象的考验。然而现在，它必须既在舆论庭上为自己辩护，且很可能也必须在法律庭上为自己辩护。如果高盛倒了霉，华尔街也将难逃厄运。

应对“新常态”

应对"新常态"

2010-7-10    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅

 

【《证券市场周刊》特约作者 比尔・格罗斯】全球金融市场的回报率正经历一个平淡的时期。债券市场又岂止是萧条，简直是处于危机边缘。全球大部分的主要债券指数的收益率都低于3%，投资收益当然也会如此。而股票，一直以来作为投资者乐观主义的舞台，仍没有适应因去杠杆化、再监管以及去全球化导致的经济增幅减半的"新常态"，因此只有极低的个位数回报率。

然而，多年来我们在太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）都曾习以为常的做法现在已经不再是机构投资经理们的例牌。当"新常态"已经成为记者和评论家的口头禅时，投资者还并没有意愿接受这个事实，他们困惑并耳语着，或许还轻吹着口哨，就像是在经过一块墓地。

对于我们所说的"新常态"这个合成词，更多的经济学家们更注重"常态"，而不是"新"，而这些经济学家都不是"R"字辈的（Roubini, Reinhart, Rogoff, 或Rosenberg），（注：这几位R字辈的经济学家都是悲观主义经济学者，都看空全球投资市场，格罗斯认为只有这几位少数的经济学家明白了新常态的真正含义）好像在金融字典里，字母"R"被删除了，而在全球投资者的字典里，"新"被删除了。

也许正是人们世世代代对债务的简单理解导致了目前的境况，随时借债，随时放贷，轻松地提高生活品质――直到债务达到如此巨大的程度，以至于利息负担和偿付能力使借贷双方都无法再互相信任对方。要想搞清楚为什么举债成为了生活负担而不是生活的享受，有必要看看（菲利普・科根）在《经济学人》杂志中所指出的，去问问为什么人们，包括公司，甚至整个国家，把借债奉为第一信条。

他在文中不无智慧地说道，他们之所以举债，就是为了提高生活品质，带动消费，而不是萧条地活在现状中。我们中的大多数人如果不去贷款，怎么可能买得起房子呢？而如果不贷款，当我们存够买房子的钱的时候，我们已经接近退休年龄，孩子们又要用钱，同样的窘境还是会发生。而神奇的贷款会让我们随时消费，到时候也会如数还款。重要的是，借贷就像握手，至少有借与贷两方参与，放贷人必须相信借款人有能力偿还贷款，这种信任，或叫做"信用"，是基于若干理性的预期，而这种理性的预期是从3万英尺高的宏观高度去观察得到的。

首先，资本创新孕育了生产力以及通过科技创新而不断提高的生活品质。如果经济繁荣，那么债务可以通过获利以及薪酬来偿还。其次，20世纪（虽有时不时的战争和瘟疫）是世界人口增长的时期，而正是这一时期，债务超级链条形成了。前期的债务由不断增长的人口蔓延传播，债务负担得以减轻，从而使得更多的举债发生，进入到看似无限循环的债务链，而这种举债消费的方式能够推动消费――人们因此预期后代都能如法炮制。

然而，当科技的创新――颇似摩尔定律――看似有着无限的前景时，人口的增长，在无数的发达国家当中已经接近停滞。因此，不但将债务分担到更多的未来人口变得更加困难，而且那些老龄化的全球主流消费人口对未来商品和服务的需求也会减少，从而自身的偿还能力也相应减弱。由于已经开始意识到了这种困境，正如最近希腊以及南欧诸国，或者美国本身的状况一样，债权人会收紧放贷，比如债权人会要求贷款人在买房子或其他借贷时提高首付比例

人口老龄化及结构变迁当然只是上天惩罚的其中一部分。我们本可以像松鼠为了过冬而储藏食物那样渡过难关，但人性被贪婪与违背常理的做法所侵蚀。我们弄巧成拙，现在收债人拿着镰刀就在你家门口等着收租，一手拿着未付的账单，另一只手挨家挨户地敲门，将那些之前从未怀疑过举债带来高品质生活的人们判为死刑。

如果从人口统计学、心理学以及社会学的角度来解释这场危机的话，那么最难理解的部分就是为什么它会转化成全球现象。全球有65亿人口，而很快又会增加10亿，这其中大多数是无债族，而且从未使用过信用卡，也没有贷款买房的预期。那么为什么债权人――譬如太平洋投资管理公司――不去借贷给他们，从而促使发展中国家推动消费？为什么不让发达国家提供物资与服务，使整个世界又回归到"旧常态"通道，朝着未来收益、未来繁荣以及不断提高的生活品质的方向发展呢？从某种意义上来讲，这应该是渐进地发生的，促使更快的增长发生在新兴经济体以及其表面屈服于G-7之下的实体国家。

但是，那些发展中国家发展的并不迅速，因此不能够使全球经济回归到"旧常态"，至少从内需来看是这样。他们的金融体系不够完善，就像一个四肢纤细的幼年长颈鹿――虽有巨大的向上的潜力――但由于一系列的错误决策，如最近的一次是10年前的亚洲金融危机，目前还只能尽力保持平衡。

因此他们生产的目的主要是为了出口，而不是内需，这就造成了与全球总需求之间的差距。

发达国家的消费者由于债务缠身已经达到了消费顶峰，而发展中国家的"幼年长颈鹿"不够自信，不敢伸出脖子舔舐头顶"内需"那片美味的叶子。

正是由于这种全球总内需的不均衡――某些地区由于债务过重，而另一些地区消费不足――才是问题的关键，但好像只有少数"R"字辈的经济学家才能领悟。（太平洋投资管理公司里没有"R"字开头的经济学家，无论我怎样想用比喻的手法找到一个姓氏里有"R"字的，哦，是的，有一个，Paul-Rugman,也算勉强通过） （注：其实是Paul-Krugman,作者为了强调Paul也是少数理解新常态的经济学家之一，故意称他为Rugman）

如果决策者们能够统一地顺利将那些深度负债消费者变为未来的生产者，而同时将那些消费不充分的发展中国家人口变为消费人口，那么我们的困境就会变得可控。先不说多伦多20国峰会，全世界总是处于一种各自为政的思维状态，中国总是审慎的消费，而美国也不愿意承认投资出口产品的必要性。

即便你不是"R"字辈的，前面的解释也足够你去理解最近几年全球市场，全球经济，甚至于你目前的疲软的生活质量到底是怎么一回事。

消费必须有金融的支持，而金融是借贷双方的双向博弈。当负债程度过高，债权方就会停止放贷，甚至终极的债权方――国家、中央银行、超越国家界限的金融机构，都会逼近他们的极限，而一旦超越此极限，私人企业的生产力就会受到威胁。我们已经进入了"新常态"时代，尽管在过去的几十年中，中国和印度以及其他新兴经济体中涌现出了30亿的消费者，但是由于能力欠缺，亦或是不乐意去支持消费而造成的全球总需求的差距仍然存在。

发达国家的缓慢增长，新兴经济体的消费乏力，以及看似无法参透的低迷的投资组合回报率――债券或股票――都摆在我们面前。不要再喃喃自语（大声喊出来）"新常态"，或开始称自己为"RRRRRRRRR"字辈！我们需要改变的是我们的经济，我们的债务使用方式，以及我们的金融市场――而不是改变我的字母或字典。

张俊豪／译

The emerging online giants 若隐若现的网络巨擘

Internet investment's new champions

互联网投资界新贵

The emerging online giants

若隐若现的网络巨擘

DST, Naspers and Tencent have made promising internet investments in many emerging markets. Now even Western internet financiers are emulating them

DST，Naspers和腾讯已经在诸多新兴市场做出了卓有成效的网络投资，现在甚至连西方的网络投资界也开始效仿他们

Jul 8th 2010

 

THEY may not have the name recognition of a Google or a Yahoo!, but they can claim to belong in the same league. The websites of Digital Sky Technologies (DST) account for more than 70% of page-views on the Russian-language internet. Naspers is Africa’s biggest media group, both offline and online. And Tencent is China’s largest internet company by market capitalisation—and the third-largest in the world.

它们也许没有Google或者Yahoo那么高的知名度，但是他们可以宣称属于同一个阵营。DST的网站占据了俄语互联网70%以上的浏览量，Naspers是非洲最大的网络和传统媒体集团，而腾讯则是按市值计算中国最大，世界第三的互联网公司。

Now these firms are increasingly making their presence felt beyond their home markets. Between them they have invested in dozens of internet firms around the globe. The most adventurous of the three, DST, has already moved west—and paid top dollar for stakes in fast-growing American companies, notably Facebook, the world’s biggest social network.

现在，这些公司的身影越来越多地在其母国以外出现。他们之间已经在全球范围投资了好几十家互联网公司。其中最具冒险精神的DST已经挥师西方国家，并花费大把钞票购买具有高成长性的美国公司的股分，其中最惹人注目的就是入股世界最大的社交网站Facebook。

At first glance the three firms could not look more different. DST was created in 2005 when two Russian internet investors, Yuri Milner and Gregory Finger, pooled their interests in mail.ru, a Russian web portal. Today the firm controls many of the country’s leading websites and boasts an interesting mix of owners, including Goldman Sachs and Alisher Usmanov, a Russian billionaire, who holds 27%.

一眼看上去这三家公司八竿子打不着。DST于2005年由两位俄罗斯互联网投资者Yuri Milner和Gregory Finger将其所拥有的门户网站mail.ru的股份合并而成。如今这家公司控制了俄罗斯许多主要的网站，并以其有趣的多方所有制而自夸。其所有方包括了高盛和拥有27%股份的俄罗斯亿万富翁Alisher Usmanov。

Based in Cape Town, Naspers is nearly 100 years old and is the publisher of the Daily Sun, South Africa’s biggest newspaper. But it is one of the most ambitious old-media companies anywhere in its move online. It still makes most of its sales—28 billion rand ($3.6 billion) in the year to March—from print and pay-television, but it uses the cash to buy online firms.

Naspers立足于开普敦已有将近百年历史，是南非最大的报纸Daily Sun的发行商。但是在网络化方面，它是所有传统媒体中最具抱负的公司之一。目前这家公司仍以纸质报纸和付费电视为主营业务，并在第一季度创下销售额280亿南非兰特（折合成美元36亿），但是它也花大钱收购网络公司。

Tencent hails from Shenzhen, near Hong Kong. Founded in 1998, it had revenues of $1.8 billion in 2009. Although best known for QQ, a popular instant-messaging service with 567m users, much of its profits come from online games and a virtual currency, called Q coins. Users purchase this with real money and use it to buy digital wares, such as virtual weapons to increase the powers of their avatars.

腾讯来自深圳，离香港不远。成立于1998年的腾讯在2009年营收达18亿美元。虽然其最出名的产品是QQ，在中国是最受欢迎的即时通信软件并拥有5.67亿用户，其大部分利润来自在线游戏和一种被称为Q币的虚拟货币。用户用真实的钱币兑换Q币并用它来购买诸如提升游戏角色能力的虚拟道具。

Despite their differences, the three firms can be seen as a block. For one thing, they are financially intertwined. Naspers owns part of mail.ru and was an early investor in Tencent, of which it now holds 35%. In April Tencent invested $300m in DST, giving it a stake of more than 10% and DST a valuation of about $3 billion. Tencent also has an interest in the Indian arm of MIH, Naspers’s internet division.

尽管互相有如此大的差别，这三家公司其实是一伙的。首先，它们在股份上互相关联。Naspers拥有mail.ru的部分股份，也是腾讯的早期投资者并拥有其35%的股份。今年四月份，腾讯给DST注资3亿美元从而获得其超过10%的股份，并使DST市值达到30亿美元左右。腾讯同时还在Naspers旗下的网络公司MIH的印度分公司拥有股份。

What is more, the firms are on the same mission: finding promising internet companies in countries where Western investors rarely dare to go. DST’s territories are Russia and its neighbours, most of which are home to one of its collection of companies; these include social networks such as VKontakte.ru and Nasza-Klasa.pl. Naspers has the largest portfolio of internet firms in developing countries, for instance in Brazil (BuscaPé, a comparison-shopping site), India (ibibo, a social network) and at home in South Africa (24.com, a portal). Tencent has so far been the most cautious of the three. Besides its recent investment in DST it has some minority stakes in games companies, such as VinaGame in Vietnam.

更重要的是，这些公司都有同样的使命：在西方投资者极少敢于尝试的国家寻找有发展前途的互联网公司。DST的业务范围涵盖俄罗斯及其邻国，其旗下的诸多子公司在这些地区占有主要市场，包括社交网站VKontakte.ru和Nasza-Klasa.pl。Naspers拥有发展中国家互联网公司领域最大的投资组合，比如巴西的购物网站BuscaPé，印度的社交网站ibibo以及母国南非的门户网站24.com。腾讯目前是三家公司中最审慎的一家，除了最近对DST的投资以外它在一些游戏公司也有少量股份，像越南的VinaGame。

This international presence allows the firms to apply lessons they have learned in one country to another. “We spend an enormous amount of time on sharing knowledge,” says Antoine Roux, the boss of MIH. For its part, DST knows which web businesses work and how much room for growth they still have, given a country’s GDP and internet penetration. Alexander Tamas, a partner at DST, calls this “geographical arbitrage”.

这样的国际经历使得他们可以将在一个国家学到的经验应用到其他国家。MIH的老板Antoine Roux说道，我们花费大量的时间互享知识经验。就DST而言，他们可以学到在给定一个国家的GDP和网络普及程度的条件下，哪些网络业务有利可图并且还有多大的增长空间。DST的股东Alexander Tamas将此称为“地域性套利”。

In Russia DST has seen how quickly social networks can grow: latecomers to the internet, many Russians skipped e-mail and went right to social networks to communicate online. With advertising roubles in short supply, DST’s companies also experimented early with other ways of making money from social networks and online games, such as charging for services and selling virtual goods. In December it merged mail.ru with Astrum Online, a gaming firm—in effect forming a Russian Tencent. Free communication tools such as instant messaging create the audience that then pays for other services and virtual goods, Mr Tamas explains.

DST见证了社交网站在俄罗斯增长之快：由于互联网在俄罗斯普及较晚，很多俄罗斯人跳过电子邮件直接使用社交网站来进行网上交流。由于广告收入不多，DST的网络公司一早就开始尝试社交网站和网络游戏的其他赚钱之道，比如付费服务和兜售虚拟商品。十二月份，DST将mail.ru和游戏公司Astrum Online合并，而后者其实就是腾讯的俄罗斯翻版。Tamas先生解释说，免费的即时通信软件带来了大量的用户，这些用户同时为其他付费服务和虚拟商品买单。

Tomorrow, the world

明天的目标是全世界

It was only a question of time before one of the three firms tried to apply these emerging-market lessons in the West. DST has been the pioneer, for several reasons. Its partners learned their trade in America. It intends to go public one day. And it saw an opportunity: after the financial crisis, conventional investors were cautious and did not fully realise how fast social networks, for instance, would grow.

这三家公司中有人开始尝试将其在新兴市场学到的经验应用到西方世界仅仅是个时间问题。由于诸多因素DST成为了先行者。首先它的股东有在美国市场打拼的经历，其次它准备将来上市，并且他们看到了一次绝好的机会：在金融危机之后传统投资者变得比较谨慎，比如，他们没有充分意识到社交网站发展速度之快。

One further factor was essential in helping DST to gatecrash the party of the handful of private-equity funds, such as Elevation Partners, TCV and Silver Lake Partners, which typically provide successful American internet firms with additional cash. DST’s corporate structure allows it to act quickly, and to make offers that are hard to refuse. In the case of Facebook, it agreed to what at the time seemed a high valuation, waived any right to special treatment should things go wrong and was willing to buy stock from employees. That is especially popular with young internet firms. It allows founders and key employees to make money without having to sell the company or go public prematurely. “This is an IPO substitute,” explains Mr Milner, adding that DST’s investments give firms more time to focus on their product rather than thinking about a flotation.

还有一个更重要也更基本的因素帮助DST成功加入由Elevation Partners、TCV和Silver Lake Partners等一小撮互联网公司投资家组成的私募股权基金俱乐部。DST的公司结构使得它能够决策迅速并提出让客户难以拒绝的报价。以Facebook为例，DST同意了当时看来比较高的估价，放弃了在万一企业经营不善的情况下的所有特殊权利，并且答应从职工手中收购股票。这些条件对新成立的互联网公司尤其具有吸引力。这使得公司创始人和重要员工不需要通过转售公司也不必在尚未成熟的条件下匆忙上市来赚钱。Milner先生解释说，这是公开上市的一个替代办法，DST的投资给予企业家更多的时间来提高自己的产品质量而非成天想着怎样上市。

Will DST’s strategy work? Buying into Facebook certainly looks like a smart move. DST has spent an estimated $800m for a stake of about 10%. When Elevation Partners recently invested $120m in Facebook, that deal put the company’s value at $23 billion, implying that DST’s investment has almost trebled.

DST的投资策略行得通吗？购入Facebook看起来显然是项很划算的买卖。DST花费约8亿美元购入Facebook10%的股权，当Elevation Partners最近为Facebook注资1.2亿美元的时候，其市值已经增长到230亿美元，表明DST的投资已经增长到将近原来的三倍。

In contrast, analysts say, DST may have overpaid for Zynga, the world’s largest online-gaming service, and for Groupon, a website that aggregates buyers and gets them special deals. Yet sceptics may again underestimate how quickly both can grow and what Zynga, for instance, is worth in combination with Facebook: taken together they look much like Tencent. In May, after lengthy negotiations, both firms agreed that Facebook Credits, the social network’s currency, would be accepted in Zynga’s games.

与之相反，分析师则认为DST也有些投资不甚划算，比如DST为入股世界最大的网游公司Zynga和以组织团购并提供购物折扣为业务的网站Groupon出价太高。当然这些持异议的分析师可能再次低估了这两家公司的增长速度以及Zynga和Facebook联合起来所能创造的价值：将这两家公司联合起来就跟腾讯很相似了。经过漫长的谈判，两家公司于今年五月达成共识同意Facebook上流通的虚拟货币也可以被Zynga的游戏接受。

A bigger problem for DST may be that some see it as Russian—and thus “murky”. To counter this the firm has gone to great lengths to be open, inviting executives from firms in which it wanted to invest to Moscow to look at its books. The success of this strategy is demonstrated by the quality of its recent deals and its co-investors, which include such noted venture-capital firms as Accel Partners and Andreessen Horowitz. Even so, DST’s national origin could still matter as the firm makes further investments. Authorities in Washington, dc, are reportedly worried about DST’s latest acquisition: ICQ, an instant-messaging service previously owned by AOL.

DST的一个更大的问题是有人觉得它是俄罗斯的公司，从而具有“重重内幕”。为了打消这种疑虑DST已经做出巨大努力提高透明度，比如邀请其有投资意向的公司的高官到莫斯科访问并检查账簿。从他们最近的投资案例的质量以及其与知名的风险投资公司Accel Partners和Andreessen Horowitz的合作来看，他们的策略已经取得了成功。尽管如此随着DST投资范围的扩大，其母国背景仍然引起人们注意。根据报道，华盛顿当局对DST最近一次收购AOL的及时通信服务ICQ而深感担忧。

However DST fares, it seems to attract copycats. Before Elevation Partners invested in Facebook, it had already cut what is now called a “DST deal” with Yelp, a fast-growing user-review site for local businesses. And although Naspers does not intend to make any investments in Western countries, Tencent may follow DST in doing so. Martin Lau, Tencent’s president, recently said it would step up its forays abroad—which has led to talk that it may be interested in buying Yahoo!.

不管DST成功与否，它总不乏粉丝效仿。在Elevation Partners入资Facebook之前，它就已经跟一家快速增长的地区性商家用户评论网站Yelp达成了一次”DST式的交易“。而且尽管Naspers无意投资西方国家的公司，腾讯却很可能追随DST。腾讯总裁刘炽平（Martin Lau）新近放话说腾讯会加速海外投资的步伐，从而引起了其有意入股雅虎的传言。

Conversely, the apparent success of the three emerging-market internet pioneers may prompt Western venture firms to take more interest in developing countries. Tiger Global Management, a New York hedge fund that is also a shareholder in DST, has already specialised in investing in start-ups beyond the West’s well-known technology clusters. Clearly, internet investing is going global and the West is losing its monopoly, not just in thinking up clever ideas for web businesses but in financing them.

反过来，新兴市场这三位网络投资先驱的成功故事也会促使西方国家的风险投资公司更加关注于发展中国家。纽约的对冲基金Tiger Global Management，同时也是DST的股东之一，已经在投资非西方国家高技术集团的成长型公司方面有所专攻。显然，互联网投资正变得越来越国际化，西方国家也已开始在不仅仅是网络商务的创新方面同时也在企业融资方面失去其垄断地位。